Consensus Bitcoin Price Predictions

[LucidChaos]

Someone linked this on Reddit. Look interesting, it's an app to figure out a consensus bitcoin price prediction and you can add your own. https://www.hedgeable.com/research/bitcoin/estimator

The 1-year consensus is like $330 (EDIT: up to $450 now)

[arbitrage001]

The current consensus is whatever price you see right now.

[LucidChaos]

It's for predictions, i.e. the 1-year price

[samuel999]

Maybe around $150, bring in the flaming!

[dmugetsu]

I think it will rise in mid 2015
like $350

[Flashman]

The current consensus is whatever price you see right now.

Yah, that's where real people vote with real money, not BS

[Bitcoinpro]

it drives economic innovation and thats on top of the electronics, programming and social change, that puts a decent floor on the price

[Beliathon]

Better question: how long until we're measuring goods and services in bitcoin rather than measuring bitcoin in fiat value?

[Sindelar1938]

Sounds like early season bull shit to me

[itsAj]

The current consensus is the current price, the market price.

[Flashman]

Although the gradient of a rally might count, if the market suddenly thinks it's worth $1000 next week, we're probably at 500 from 300 this morning.... ain't nobody going to pay 1000 right now, when they can get some for a bid of 500.1 this minute, though someone will be willing to pay 500.2 the next.

And so it goes.

[LucidChaos]

The current consensus is the current price, the market price.

I think everyone understands that. This thread has little to do with the current consensus

[Possum577]

How does the app generate a consensus, by averaging all the prices users think it should be at?

[rz20]

It should be around 350$ at this time, so it is very early.

[SLVR4ME]

Hell, my guess (@ CES Las Vegas Jan 2014) for BTC price at the end of 2014 was $650
I either was hung over from too much clubbin or i needed a new crystal ball.
Hopefully this year we will see some steady social acceptance which will lead to a more stable steady price rise.

[Erdogan]

No general consensus, only the two parties in the last trade did consent. Edit: Actually, the buyer valued the bitcoins higher than the last price, and the seller valued it lower.

Some of the supply and demand curves you can see in the order books on the bourses. The rest of the aggregated demand and supply is in the heads of the market actors, which are all of humanity.

This is general market dynamics, everybody should learn to understand the market.

Currently, people discovering bitcoin and valuate it at a higher price than the last trade, are important for us.

[LucidChaos]

How does the app generate a consensus, by averaging all the prices users think it should be at?

It's what they think it will be at various times in the future

[ChuckBuck]

Consensus price for Bitcoin is roughly $0.00 USD:



You heard it here first, sometime in 2015.   

Unless of course it rises to $1k.  Then I'll feel like a moron.  A happy moron, though.

[LucidChaos]

No general consensus, only the two parties in the last trade did consent. Edit: Actually, the buyer valued the bitcoins higher than the last price, and the seller valued it lower.

Some of the supply and demand curves you can see in the order books on the bourses. The rest of the aggregated demand and supply is in the heads of the market actors, which are all of humanity.

This is general market dynamics, everybody should learn to understand the market.

Currently, people discovering bitcoin and valuate it at a higher price than the last trade, are important for us.

You're the 3rd person to post a generic statement about how the market price is already a consensus, without actually reading the thread or looking at the link. This is about predicting the future price, that's what the link in the OP is for. I just changed the thread title to make it more clear, my mistake if it was confusing.

[Erdogan]

No general consensus, only the two parties in the last trade did consent. Edit: Actually, the buyer valued the bitcoins higher than the last price, and the seller valued it lower.

Some of the supply and demand curves you can see in the order books on the bourses. The rest of the aggregated demand and supply is in the heads of the market actors, which are all of humanity.

This is general market dynamics, everybody should learn to understand the market.

Currently, people discovering bitcoin and valuate it at a higher price than the last trade, are important for us.

You're the 3rd person to post a generic statement about how the market price is already a consensus, without actually reading the thread or looking at the link. This is about predicting the future price, that's what the link in the OP is for. I just changed the thread title to make it more clear, my mistake if it confusing.

Ok (except I disagree about the consensus). Still, you could say that there is a market for the price in one year in the future minus the current interest rate for that future year interval, and that market is expressed by last price and the order book and the unexpressed valuation vectors (volume@price) that exists in the heads of the actors. A generalization too. If you just want a number, I would say 20x current price in one year. Obvously there is no consensus, what what we can say is that if someone expects a price lower than now, it would not be rational for that person to own bitcoins now.
An app is not helpful.