I saw this linked elsewhere and it's a good watch about the S-Curve for technology adoption: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrIThe network affect should encourage adoption similar to Google, Facebook and Twitter, so the case for an S-Curve has legs, IMO. Assuming we will have S-Curve adoption, I wonder when it will arrive? Are we already at the start of it? The next few years could see value appreciate in a near vertical fashion, before tapering off again. |
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IMO the bull party is over. What can be seen in the charts is the topmost Elliot sub-wave, with it's 5 sub-sub-waves, although the last one is about to begin,
and may be ill defined. I am certain that a correction is coming, dropping the price to the 112 - 114 range, followed by a (slow?) rebound to maybe 117 - 118.
The uber-bulls are going to interpret this as a bear trap, but I believe it will be the prelude to more drops, after a couple of days.
We can see declining volume on MtGox over the last 4 days, with the pattern following an ascending triangle (up towards 125). I would say that is more bullish than bearish, tbh. http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:ascending_triangle_cThat said, it has been a steep climb, especially on Bitstamp and maybe we are in for a breather. I'd like to make a trade or two over the next few days, but holding still seems to be the most obvious plan for me atm. |
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I suspect people are more concerned about getting their money out at all, than just waiting a month. Why else would you pay a 20% premium?
If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already.
Also, Gox would be for traders. Try trading on Stamp, it is hard. You could keep your coins on Stamp and trade with some on Gox as there is the action. I trade regularly on Stamp, without any major issues. TBH, it tends to be a bit less erratic, IMO. Try making trades of +300 coins at Bitstamp without MAYOR slippage and then report back please... Even on Gox, the slippage is a huge profit killer for traders - on Bitstamp is just impossible to daytrade for anyone with a little more than play money. As I only have play money, this isn't of concern to me!  |
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IS THIS REALLY A SIGN THAT ALL IS FINE AT MTGOX OR THE SIGN OF A "BANK RUN"?
If it was a bank run, the volume at other exchanges would equal that of MtGox because people were buying on MtGox to sell on other exchanges. But it isn't. Not even close. Volume on MtGox today is much higher than on other exchanges. USD volume alone is more than 3x the volume on Bitstamp, and 4x when you add up the rest of the currencies on MtGox. No signs of empty hot wallet on MtGox today either, so probably just a normal rally where MtGox is leading as usual. Not necessarily - They may just be buying BTC and transferring them to their personal wallets, before the price gets even higher. |
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I suspect people are more concerned about getting their money out at all, than just waiting a month. Why else would you pay a 20% premium?
If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already.
Also, Gox would be for traders. Try trading on Stamp, it is hard. You could keep your coins on Stamp and trade with some on Gox as there is the action. I trade regularly on Stamp, without any major issues. TBH, it tends to be a bit less erratic, IMO. I take your point though that traders are looking at relative prices, rather than absolute prices. I'd still be a bit concerned about Gox's future, considering the way the market is pricing the risk already. I am also really worried about Gox. It might end up being nothing, but how long ago did that 2 week freeze on wiring money end? About 2 months ago or so? And it was only supposed to take a few weeks to get back to speed (backlog as Gox said). Now - NO WORD, zero... Sometimes that makes trading on Stamp easier!  I find that it mostly carves its own patterns these days though, apart from these big moves. IMO, you don't end up with prices 20% higher than elsewhere unless something is very wrong. Whether it is panic at not knowing what is going on or whether some big players do know what is going on, who can say? |
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I suspect people are more concerned about getting their money out at all, than just waiting a month. Why else would you pay a 20% premium?
If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already.
Also, Gox would be for traders. Try trading on Stamp, it is hard. You could keep your coins on Stamp and trade with some on Gox as there is the action. I trade regularly on Stamp, without any major issues. TBH, it tends to be a bit less erratic, IMO. I take your point though that traders are looking at relative prices, rather than absolute prices. I'd still be a bit concerned about Gox's future, considering the way the market is pricing the risk already. |
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So it's a run on Gox then ...
A 20%+ risk premium over the other main USD exchanges would certainly point in that direction. MtGox 24h Volume: 46280 BTC Bitstamp 24h Volume: 11791 BTC Makes no sense, you don't cash out of Mt. Gox by buying bitcoin rather than by waiting a month for a USD wire.
Do the math, if you're a whale with that much buying power you have let's say at least 100k USD on gox.
So if you'd like to "cash out", you'd have to buy @ ~$115 (let's make it easy and ignore the slope). So you get 100.000/115 = 869.57 - 2.61 (0.3% Fee) = 866.95 BTC.
Now you transfer them to an other exchange (Bitstamp) to cash out to USD (again we ignore the slope which is even higher @ bitstamp), so:
866.95 * 99.98 = 86677.66 - 260.033 (0.3% Fee) = $86417.63
So you just lost $13582.37 because you didn't want to wait a month.
/€dit: Looking on the volumes of the recent rally and the fact that there was a single 1500 BTC buy order taking down the $115 wall, I think it's safe to take those numbers * 10. I suspect people are more concerned about getting their money out at all, than just waiting a month. Why else would you pay a 20% premium? If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already. |
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However, if price rises in other exchanges, that can only be because of bitcoin demand exceeding supply. You cannot twist it anywhere.
I would therefore closely follow the pricing in Bitstamp and others, and that has been on a rise lately. It is tempting to think that the going price is $120 (Gox), but I would more likely put it at $103. If I were to buy, I would not try to send money at Gox to buy at 20% premium, I would use Bitstamp.
Bitstamp has 5k less coins in their Ask compared to 1-2 weeks ago. Most likely, they have all been move to Gox to sell. I believe the buying pressure in Bitstamp has just consumed the coins. Gox situation is special. I don't believe that their bid side comes from true demand, because it is so much easier to use other exchanges for buying, and their price is also much lower. To me it seems that most of Gox bids are money trying to escape Gox in the form of bitcoins. This money is orginally as Gox-USD, and most of the owners want it converted back to USD after escaping from Gox. It does not change the total bitcoin supply-demand, because it is both originally and eventually USD. Bitcoin is therefore used only as a value transmit mechanism for Gox-USD. So it's a run on Gox then ... A 20%+ risk premium over the other main USD exchanges would certainly point in that direction. |
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This is hilarious. Look at the book.
We don't need an 11k whale buy and 2k wall (like what took us from 94 to triple digits). Half that will do.
We're primed for a major surge up. The whale buyers have been quiet for a couple of days. They have very strong motivation to put the push on soon.
While a 6k injection of fiat would be sufficient, a 10k buy and a 3k bidwall (same outlay as the move from 94) would really smarten up the market and secure previous acquisitions for those who pushed us past 88, 95, 100, 110, etc.
Yee-haw, pass the popcorn.
Look at the books elsewhere and the picture is completely different. Bitstamp is pretty even, with the asks having the edge... at $10/btc cheaper. MtGox has issues and people want to get their fiat out of there. Whether they just buy and hold BTC or sell them elsewhere (such as Bitstamp) is debatable, but there is an unusually large demand for coins, well above the rate offered elsewhere. In short, I'd be careful what you read into MtGox's price/order book. There is more than a whiff of panic there, IMO. |
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Triple top forming since the first started at the end of July? Third peak on falling volume. Thoughts?
It looks like Bitstamp is struggling to stay over $100, with the 3rd attempt within 24 hours barely touching it (so far). Incidentally, this looks a bit like a 24h triple top and a 1m triple top combining. Are we going to see a fall to 90-95 or will $100 be fully breached regardless? EDIT: I notice there is about 5k BTC asks sitting between $100 and $101 too on Bitstamp. |
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Over $15 between MtGox and Bitstamp...
Does someone know something we don't about MtGox?
Bitstamp is looking a bit triple-toppy still, but Gox has got a bit carried away with itself.
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Triple top forming since the first started at the end of July? Third peak on falling volume. Thoughts?
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Over $13 between MtGox and Bitstamp!  |
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Not only has the gap between MtGox and Bitstamp increased to about $10 again, but the order book is starting to look like a mirror image. MtGox:  Bitstamp:  It appears that Bitstamp is far more bearish than MtGox. This is surely a reflection on people trying to buy BTC to get out of MtGox? I suspect Bitstamp is leading the market now too, which makes me wonder whether the 95 support level is about to give way. |
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@prof7bit
I guess you're asking Traktion, since he suggested the pattern, but even though I didn't agree with him, your "find in less than 2 minutes" criterion is a bit unfair. Depending on how well trained you are, it could take you 30 seconds or 20 minutes to find a pattern, irrespective of whether it is really there or not.
When Traktion first posted, he also had a 15 min view. I'm not experienced in determining candlestick patterns, but I *could* see how (on the 15 min view) a left shoulder and a head had materialized, and a right shoulder was possibly forming.
I mainly disagreed because of the volume acting atypical.
Sure, the volume was a bit dodgy (especially on Bitstamp), but I thought it was worth a punt. The head and the right shoulder panned out as expected, but there wasn't the full reversal back to the neck line. It was still worth trading (for me anyway). EDIT: Although we are heading towards the neckline now on Bitstamp... the pattern is rough though, granted. |
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Correct. Even a perfectly formed H+S pattern may not complete, but statistically, it usually does.
I played the head and the right shoulder and made a small profit, but the dip after the right shoulder didn't materialise.
you couldn't resist telling us about your profit huh?  Ha! It was only small, I assure you! |
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[...] Sure, it was only supposed to be indicative. The volume has fallen at each buying period. The below shows it more clearly:  Anyway, it will be interesting to see how it pans out. Not being snarky, but honestly wondering: That H+S pattern didn't materialize, right? Or is there something like a double right shoulder?! Correct. Even a perfectly formed H+S pattern may not complete, but statistically, it usually does. I played the head and the right shoulder and made a small profit, but the dip after the right shoulder didn't materialise. |
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That's what I'm seeing anyway.
The volume trend line isn't nearly as linear as that. Head and shoulders may confirm but I think we bounce at 103-104. Sure, it was only supposed to be indicative. The volume has fallen at each buying period. The below shows it more clearly: Anyway, it will be interesting to see how it pans out. |
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I'm wondering where some of you are getting the idea that the trend is about to reverse. Because of the 5 USD retracement we just saw? Or maybe I'm missing something that the candle watchers can see but I cannot.
The way I see it, it's not entirely clear if, in the short term (24-48h) we'll continue to go up or will stabilize at this level, but I see very little indication that we're going down right now.
 That's what I'm seeing anyway. |
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Head and shoulders completing for the day? Both volume and price points to it pretty clearly on MtGox.
The volume is still high on Bitstamp, mind. The pattern is there though.
Could we see a blow off back down to about 101 MtGox/93 Bitstamp?
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