Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

[Wagner2014]

During the last 3 days about 20k BTC have disappeared from the order book (at least as I write this).
Do you think it's just one major player (possibly a company) buying? Is the withdrawal of funds from Fort Gox via BTC over?

I think it's one major player (probably a company) instigating and maintaining the uptrend to acquire an inventory of bitcoins as cheaply as possible while keeping the price as stable as possible to protect their assets.

This makes no sense. If I was a major player and wanted to acquire bitcoins as cheaply as possible, the last place I'd do it would be on Mt. Gox.

Mt. Gox only has 50% of the volume and the price is 10 -15% higher than on the other exchanges. I'd be buying on the other exchanges that together have just as much volume as Mt. Gox.

The more likely explanation in my view is that some people are worried about their $$ held captive in Mt. Gox and are buying bitcoins to get their money out.

[gog1]

During the last 3 days about 20k BTC have disappeared from the order book (at least as I write this).
Do you think it's just one major player (possibly a company) buying? Is the withdrawal of funds from Fort Gox via BTC over?

I think it's one major player (probably a company) instigating and maintaining the uptrend to acquire an inventory of bitcoins as cheaply as possible while keeping the price as stable as possible to protect their assets.

I think it's multiple people with big cash balances on Gox losing patience seeing buying as the safest way out, but trying not to spook the market too much as they do so. I would like to see numbers for BTC leaving Ft Gox if they are available. I am pretty sure there is not a crowd banging on the door to give them more USD right now, so it's a one way street.
Massive first mover advantage here ... buy, hold, let BitStamp follow, cash out $10 later. Or $15 as it is now. Or hold for the panic run. Nobody talks of it, but there will be one if they continue to make no progress whatsoever on finding a banking partner to work with.
Confidence in Gox is decreasing and there is only one way out. Could get really crowded ...

Edit: Oops, just got back from the ballpark (Jays beat Bsox in extra innings), had a few beers and posted the quote without a comment (facepalm).

I don't think the MtGox situation has been that big an issue, worldwide, since early July's capitulation. If you look at the pattern of ask-wall busting whale purchases and ensuing bid-walls, they seem to be the work of a single entity. The modus operandi has been consistent through several major ask-wall breakthroughs.

Do you really think someone with the resources to organize such a concerted effort is restricted by some petty exchange difficulties.

It's probably either governmental, corporate or military. It's almost surely not speculators.

gov't buying up all the bitcoins so it can kill it !!!!!  (It became necessary to destroy the town to save it)

[ChartBuddy]

[giszmo]

Edit: Oops, just got back from the ballpark (Jays beat Bsox in extra innings), had a few beers and posted the quote without a comment (facepalm).

Or you had the same issue I had before: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=273273.0

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[vokain]

I do like that 105 wall now

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[wachtwoord]

I don't think the MtGox situation has been that big an issue, worldwide, since early July's capitulation. If you look at the pattern of ask-wall busting whale purchases and ensuing bid-walls, they seem to be the work of a single entity. The modus operandi has been consistent through several major ask-wall breakthroughs.

Do you really think someone with the resources to organize such a concerted effort is restricted by some petty exchange difficulties.

It's probably either governmental, corporate or military. It's almost surely not speculators.

I give almost zero weighting to it being government or military, and a very,very low weight to it being corporate. One HNW individual, yeah, possible. A few acting together or independently, more probable.
I am not sure why you seem to think that the effort involved to buy BTC and put up bid walls is so great - it's not exactly rocket science if you have the cash and coins.

If Gox is a non-issue, why the growing price differential between Fort Gox and other exchanges ?

Don't discount one or a few HNW individuals. A lot of these people needed to be smart and non-risk averse to become wealthy in the first place. I think larger corporations won't do this: for the person making the decision there is little to gain and so much to lose. It's just like politics, don't be too edgy and don't stick out too much and you'll survive a hell of a lot longer.

[ChartBuddy]

[Traktion]

Triple top forming since the first started at the end of July? Third peak on falling volume. Thoughts?

It looks like Bitstamp is struggling to stay over $100, with the 3rd attempt within 24 hours barely touching it (so far).

Incidentally, this looks a bit like a 24h triple top and a 1m triple top combining. Are we going to see a fall to 90-95 or will $100 be fully breached regardless?

EDIT: I notice there is about 5k BTC asks sitting between $100 and $101 too on Bitstamp.

[DaSheep]

I don't think the MtGox situation has been that big an issue, worldwide, since early July's capitulation. If you look at the pattern of ask-wall busting whale purchases and ensuing bid-walls, they seem to be the work of a single entity. The modus operandi has been consistent through several major ask-wall breakthroughs.

Do you really think someone with the resources to organize such a concerted effort is restricted by some petty exchange difficulties.

It's probably either governmental, corporate or military. It's almost surely not speculators.

I give almost zero weighting to it being government or military, and a very,very low weight to it being corporate. One HNW individual, yeah, possible. A few acting together or independently, more probable.
I am not sure why you seem to think that the effort involved to buy BTC and put up bid walls is so great - it's not exactly rocket science if you have the cash and coins.

If Gox is a non-issue, why the growing price differential between Fort Gox and other exchanges ?

Don't discount one or a few HNW individuals. A lot of these people needed to be smart and non-risk averse to become wealthy in the first place. I think larger corporations won't do this: for the person making the decision there is little to gain and so much to lose. It's just like politics, don't be too edgy and don't stick out too much and you'll survive a hell of a lot longer.

What I don't get about this whole story is how this is profitable.
He bought ~8000 coins on the way from $113 to $115 and almost 2k of them for $115.
During this time ~6000 coins got sold, alot of them in his walls for ~$113.
So let's just say he ended up with ~10000 coins for an average price of $114.

Today someone pushed us back down to $110.5, now we're at $111.
So right now he lost about $30000...

Am I missing something?

[Cablez]

I don't get it either.  It was all doom and gloom until 65 then bam, uptrend.  Did I miss capitulation?

What do these HNW guys know is coming?  Always more questions than answers.

[ChartBuddy]

[SGExodus]

What I don't get about this whole story is how this is profitable.
He bought ~8000 coins on the way from $113 to $115 and almost 2k of them for $115.
During this time ~6000 coins got sold, alot of them in his walls for ~$113.
So let's just say he ended up with ~10000 coins for an average price of $114.

Today someone pushed us back down to $110.5, now we're at $111.
So right now he lost about $30000...

Am I missing something?

How silly can you get to think that all these transactions are done by the same person?

[DaSheep]

What I don't get about this whole story is how this is profitable.
He bought ~8000 coins on the way from $113 to $115 and almost 2k of them for $115.
During this time ~6000 coins got sold, alot of them in his walls for ~$113.
So let's just say he ended up with ~10000 coins for an average price of $114.

Today someone pushed us back down to $110.5, now we're at $111.
So right now he lost about $30000...

Am I missing something?

How silly can you get to think that all these transactions are done by the same person?

If there is almost no activity in the market and suddently 2000 coins get bought in like 2 seconds and half a second later a 1300 coins wall pops up and another 2000 coins get bought and another 1300 wall pops up and another 2000 coins get bought and another wall pops up...
It's quite obvious I think.

[molecular]

Actually, feds fighting BTC is bullish news for me. The easiest way to marginalize BTC is to crash the price to the bottom,
then buy back, repeat. So the feds could slowly buy 100K BTC, driving the price up to maybe 130 $, then dump in 5 sub-waves.
When price will reach 20 $, buy back. And repeat until price is under 1 $, then 99% of people will learn to stay away from BTC.

I doubt that would work well. 100k might not be enough to slam price to $20 and buying them might well ignite quite a rally well above $130.

They would need some futures market or etf or whatever accessible to JP Morgan allowing them the use of fiat for price manipulation.