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June 13, 2024, 05:18:15 PM *
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1  Economy / Economics / Re: could the FDI in any country be affected by cryptocurrency not being accepted? on: Today at 08:56:34 AM
From what I've read, foreign direct investment index depends on available restrictions on foreign capital, difficulty level of passing the screening to invest, restrictions on foreign employees, etc.
Special economic zones tend to accept and welcome cryptocurrencies, but that doesn't necessarily mean that being restrictive toward Bitcoin will result in a low index. There are other aspects to it as well. For instance, Israel scores very high on FDI, which I assume is because of how much the USA supports it financially.
I don't think restrictive crypto policies and practices are the only issue in Nigeria, but they can be a symptom of bigger issues.
2  Economy / Economics / Re: June CPI Report - May printed 3.3% from an expected 3.4% on: Today at 08:42:09 AM
The USA has very knowledgeable economists and strong institutions that know how to keep the currency steady. Inflation is under control, but the Fed has decided to keep the interest rates at the previous level. Perhaps it's just a precaution, to make sure things are under control.
As for money printing, there have been concerns about it for decades, but the USA seems to be getting away with it. I think it's because of such a strong dominance of the USD as a foreign reserve currency and the power that the USA projects globally.
3  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Would it have been possible to mine Bitcoin with cellphone in 2009? on: Today at 08:31:16 AM
That's an interesting question, albeit purely hypothetical, unless someone gas actually done that. I remember watching video of how mining can be done on paper (very slowly, but the point is that it's not impossible if), so I think that it was technically possible to develop a relevant app for that, even for a phone that wasn't a smartphone. But in terms of practicality, taking into account the difficulty rate of that time, I simply don't know.
4  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What are the benefits of accepting Bitcoin as a method of payment. on: Today at 06:21:49 AM
Being non-refundable can be both a feature and an issue, because if you make a mistake, there's nobody out there to fix it. As for international transfers, it really depends on what kind of transfer it is and between which countries, but yeah, Bitcoin is often significantly faster for international transfers in my experience. However, it's not always cheaper, especially if we consider nationwide transfers which, in my country, are typically free of charge.
There are some advantages of accepting Bitcoin as payment, clearly, but there are also some difficulties. If it's an on-chain transaction, a person might need to wait for up to 10 minutes for the first confirmation. Also, depending on what someone's buying, a $3 transaction fee can be huge. Finally, there can be complex tax implications in some places.
5  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is China going to shift from Gold to crypto as ICBC considers ETH a digital oil? on: Today at 06:08:46 AM
Given the level of authoritarianism and centralization in China, I believe it's unlikely that this bank did something that the government disagreed with. It's nice that the report praises Bitcoin and Ethereum. If that's true, then is, because I don't see it on major reputable media outlets. While looking through various publications, I've failed to find any links to the report itself, even though the articles claim that it was published. The bank's website also doesn't seem to feature that report (at least, not on the English version of the website). Does the op or anyone else know where the report can be found? Because as of now, I'm somewhat suspicious about this information, and I'd like to learn more.
6  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Exploring Key Properties and Predicting Price Movements of Cryptocurrency Market on: June 12, 2024, 10:39:53 AM
I like academic papers because they add a certain degree of credibility to discussions. The authors are postulating a positive moderate correlation between cryptos overall most of the time, with stronger correlation following undesirable critical events (Mt Gox bankruptcy, the pandemic announcement, Tesla stopping accepting BTC as payment, etc.). That being said, the impact of corrections takes a short period of time, so long-term benefits are still possible.
As for the point about centrality measures being effective for price predictions, I must admit that part was too technical to me, so perhaps I misunderstood it. Am I correct that it's not about predicting what Bitcoin will cost in 6 months, for example, but more about how a price change in one of the key cryptos can impact the prices of other currencies?
7  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is the best assset in investment return 8 years in last 11 years on: June 12, 2024, 09:38:30 AM
It's a neat infographic, thanks for sharing! Bitcoin is indeed the best-performing asset 8 years out of 11, which is very impressive. But I do believe it matters that it was also the worst-performing asset in the other three years, and with a huge difference between it and the closest worst-performing competitor. It's probably those years, in which Bitcoin loses over a half of its value, that are scary to some investors and make Bitcoin seem like a very risky asset. Unlike some other options on the list, it can lead to huge losses in an unlucky year, and some just can't handle that pressure.
8  Economy / Economics / Re: The government cares for no one but waits for you to get rich for taxes paying. on: June 12, 2024, 07:06:31 AM
How much the state taxes the citizens and how much they get in return depends strongly on a country. In my country, people have been losing their purchasing power for over a decade, but there is a strong objective reason for it: a much bigger country waging a war against us. Then there's corruption, which is a big issue. But I think we don't have progressive taxes, so people normally pay the same (at least, when it comes to income tax). Also, the tax authorities are very lax, so a huge amount of people don't pay their taxes or pay way less than they're supposed to. As for the social support, we have free basic medical care for everyone, free higher education (highly accessible with around 50% studying for free), and very cheap public transport throughout the nation.
Investing in support for citizens is a great idea, and I agree that countries usually don't do enough of that. As for taxing the poor, in my country they are taxed, but overall I think it's very unfair and unproductive. If a person is barely making ends meet, taxes make a huge negative impact on that person's life. In the meantime, this money is almost nothing for the state, as these people have very small salaries anyway and thus the amount they pay in taxes is miniscule (for the state, but not for the poor).
9  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why Bitcoin Spot ETF Investors Attracted $887 Million on: June 12, 2024, 06:28:27 AM
Bitcoin was big without the ETFs. NFTs have a market capitalization of almost $75 billion, and Bitcoin NFT market has a value of $1 billion. My point is, even though ETFs got a lot of attention and can be considered successful, $800 million is much less than the numbers I've just shared regarding other crypto initiatives. So it's inaccurate to say that the ETFs are the only ones that rose to prominence, as the op put it.
Also, you have a false dilemma there with a God-given destiny vs invisible market manipulations. NFTs had powerful but not invisible actor behind them that were pushing for their approval, and it makes sense that, once approved, they've found their market.
10  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin has higher market cap than the three biggest banks in the world on: June 12, 2024, 06:13:31 AM
That's nice stats, showing that Bitcoin is bigger than some might think. Bitcoin also has a bigger capitalization than Facebook and Visa. That being said, I'm not sure that it's right to compare companies, assets, and cryptocurrencies, putting everything from gold to banks and supermarket chains into one big list.
For instance, while JPMorgan Chase has a market capitalization below $600 billion, they had $3.4 trillion worth of assets under management at the end of 2023. Or, if we take Visa, its marketcap is also below $600 billion, but it powers over 4 billion cards globally, while if we estimate the rough amount of Bitcoin users, we get under 500 million, even by generous estimates. So one could reasonably ask why we're focusing on marketcap while there are other crucial factors.
11  Economy / Economics / Re: Silver/USD is at its highest since 2013 on: June 11, 2024, 03:16:05 PM
The precious metal closed 6.5% higher at $31.49 an ounce Friday, the highest since February 2013. It has soared 32% this year, outpacing gold and making it one of the year’s best-performing major commodities.

Not only silver is at its 10 years high, it also closed the day with a record high gain, 6.5%. (gold is >$2415) It looks like they are running out of paper and can't suppress the metal prices with their worthless papers anymore. I can't really believe that though, can they really run out of paper?

The US debt is growing exponentially and the only way to pay that much debt is printing even more debt > hyperinflation

It will be either Weimar Germany or there will be WWIII soon. I don't think the USD will go down silently and peacefully.
Well, with Russia's imperialism, it doesn't sound too unlikely that WW3 is somewhere around the corner. But with all of that playing with fire that the USA has been doing for decades with the USD and especially over the last few years, I must say that the currency is doing really well. Inflation rate is low, percentage of global foreign currency reserves in the USD is very high (and no other currency is even close to competing with it). Plus, there is some explanation of silver growth in the article you've linked that has nothing to do with USD overprinting or US foreign debt: silver being a key metal for solar panels.
12  Economy / Economics / Re: The choice of investment is dependent on your region of residency. on: June 11, 2024, 03:02:00 PM
The good thing about Bitcoin is that, unless you're unfortunate enough to live in a country where it's banned, you can invest in it, and it's unlikely that its price will be negatively impacted by your location. Of course, you need to figure out whether you can buy Bitcoin, whether you need to pay taxes, how and where you can buy and sell it, but other than that, it's pretty simple. But when it comes to things like real estate, for example, you can get in big trouble because of living in a region affected by natural disasters, a war, or something else of that sort. This can lead to a crash of the market. So the local environment matters sometimes, but maybe not everywhere and not for everything.
13  Economy / Economics / Re: How Do You Store Value to Offset Inflation? on: June 11, 2024, 02:42:37 PM
Honestly, some fiat currencies aren't doing that bad. The USD has consistently low inflation rate, aside from a couple of exceptions (and in those cases, it still outperformed most other currencies). But that still means gradually losing money, around 3-4% every year. Cryptos are all very different, so I'd focus just on Bitcoin as the leading crypto. I like that it's very accessible: you don't have to buy a lot, you don't have to commit to it (you can always sell), you can store it yourself, and it has high liquidity, so you can make fast decisions if you need to. The rest of the options (stocks, real estate, etc.) seem less accessible to me: they often require a serious commitment, sometimes the liquidity can be an issue, and you often need a very decent amount of money to start.
14  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Biggest Crypto Mistake: Shorting Bitcoin on: June 11, 2024, 02:23:16 PM
I've had some success with altcoins in 2017, but I've also had some failures later, when the altcoin bubble burst and most altcoins never returned to their former price level. So nowadays, I agree that Bitcoin is the safest bet among cryptos, and it seems likely to pay off in the long run. It's more of a question of how much it will pay off and how long one needs to wait for that to happen. There are also other options like gold or, in some cases, even relatively stable fiat like the USD, which can widely outperform local fiat currencies.
15  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What will Bitcoin look like in the future? on: June 11, 2024, 01:30:32 PM
I think Bitcoin is moving more and more into the areas of financial assets, and it's getting regulated as such in different countries. That means that Bitcoin is perceived not as a currency, but as something you can own and then sell for profit. This sentiment is common on the forum, and it's of course, attractive to tax authorities because assets are taxed, while currencies are not (income received in currencies is taxed, but the currency itself isn't).
I hope that there will be some solutions to the issue of transaction fee spikes, and that non-custodial wallets will remain legal.
16  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: 🚀 Sportsbet.io 🏀 NBA Finals 🏀 Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics 🏀 Game 3 on: June 10, 2024, 04:28:38 PM
1. Yes
2. No
3. Under
4. Dallas
5. Boston
6. Boston
7. Boston
17  Economy / Economics / Re: USA lose oil but will replace with btc and crypto on: June 10, 2024, 03:17:30 PM
The US does have its own oil reserves and production. But it also has a long-term relationship with Saudi Arabia going decades into the past. The US needs some partnerships not so much for their economy but for political influence. Still, there is no need and no indication that the US will widely adopt Bitcoin and make it a proper part of their national economy.
18  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The BTC stability on: June 10, 2024, 03:03:26 PM
I think BTC is very volatile to use it as a value reserve of a big company or a country. But it is awesome seeing its capability to speculate and invest in long term. Today I watched a video on YouTube a rich man saing that BTC is 80% of his patrimony. I think it can be dangerous. And all of you? Also are all in?
Well, not all fiat is equal, so sometimes keeping money in fiat means losing a very significant amount over time due to high inflation. But keeping a decent amount in a currency like the USD makes sense. A part can also be kept in gold, which grows somewhat over time and at least doesn't seem to lose value. And then a part can be in Bitcoin without issues. Keeping all or most funds in Bitcoin is risky, but if there's some diversification, it's okay.
19  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Internet don't forget, many times Donald Trump says bad about Bitcoin on: June 10, 2024, 11:34:05 AM
Op, Trump was president till 2021, not 2022, but other than that, I agree with that post. Trump is not pro-Bitcoin, and he demonstrated it multiple times in the past. He is using Bitcoin to get a wider appeal at the upcoming elections, that's all. He can easily get back to his old rhetoric about Bitcoin being risky and the USD being the best once he's elected (if that happens). I believe that some politicians can be genuinely pro-Bitcoin (if they are libertarian, for example), but Trump is not one of those.
20  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How many Bitcoins do you own or have you collected until now? on: June 10, 2024, 11:22:03 AM
Bitcoin was barely known back then and didn't cost much, so people were more open to sharing information about their holdings. But nowadays, even saying you have 1 Bitcoin means you're richer than most people in the world. People don't want to become a target of robbery or scam, and owning Bitcoin can draw attention of tax authorities in some countries as well. So I'm not surprised people aren't eager to share the details.
I can say that I sell regularly, and because of that, I have a very small amount. But I intend to accumulate more.
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