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Buy at every 50% retracement. Take profits after 20% gain or stopped out at 20% loss. Better than 50% chance.
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Actual working product.
Ignore all the "advisors" that's just PR fluff - unless the advisors are really poor then be worried they couldn't find half decent shills.
The "team" is also suspect in many cases. There may be only one main person running the ICO and everyone else is just paid in tokens or a consulting fee to be listed. Unless the team members are working full time on the project, they aren't a team member but just there to (trick) win your confidence.
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ED is hard to use. Waves, despite it's many issues, is surprisingly useful, but you have to get your entire audience using it on to Waves to have a viable token economy.
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Steemit is kind of like a ponzi but less scammy. At some point, when the whales start cashing out, the value of Steem will tank (just like a run on the bank scenario with MLM's, or perhaps upcoming with Tether).
But when and how fast that will happen is still TBD. I'd watch the # of new accounts being registered. When they start drying up, that's when you'll need to be first to the exists. Even the newbies are having a hard time earning due to the dilution of so many accounts. The easy days of a few $100 per post are gone unless you buy Steem power, but for that investment, might as well pick an alt or two.
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I'm as big a skeptic as anyone, but Daniel answers questions all day long in the Slack group. He publishes info that you'd never see from other leaders during ICO's as he is very up front and colorfully blunt.
There are literally thousands of comments per day in the group, 24x7.
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COEVAL tokens carry value even after the 10,000 MNY air drop.
The big question is how much value. Monkey Capital needs some minimum amount to be a serious player in the space - probably $100-150m. If they raise less than that, it will be harder to fund all the various child coins/investments and feed back enough value to COEVAL. But if they raise more than that, they will have lived up to the hype and current price of COEVAL.
I'm just trying to figure out the math on the ICO.
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I estimate the price of 1 AMP to hit 0.03 BTC easily in the future. Why? Because by the beta results it shows that 6.6 AMP can get people 2000 views on youtube, that with the current 9000 satoshi/AMP price is technically 30 satoshi /view. Currently there is not a single AD network in Bitcoin with a CPC lower than 10,000 satoshi, but Wildspark could deliver you 1 click for 30 satoshi. That means that the price of AMP can easily grow by x333.33 times!!!! It's insane  But you can't compare the two b/c people will promote low-quality posts that viewer will click off right away or that won't convert. When you pay Google for ads you are getting targetted, contextually-relevant ads. If the viewer can't earn more than a few satoshi in reward they will bolt the platform. It's the same problem Steemit has but even worse because it will require a separate browser add-on. At least Steemit has some decent content even if the new users are dropping off b/c of broken Ponzi rewards structure. |
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If the MNY ICO raises $100M, the value of each MNY will be $0.10 (based on 1B MNY in circulation).
That means each COEVAL purchased would have $1k worth of MNY (10,000 MNY x $0.10) plus whatever value COEVAL will retain after the ICO. However, suppose the MNY ICO only raises $25M. Now you'll only have $250 worth of value in the MNY + the COEVALS. COEVAL's currently going for around $500-600.
Another issue is MNY has to be purchased on Waves. I like Waves as a platform but you're not going to get the big splash that other ICO's get forcing people to use Waves which is a pain to get started on (you can't even buy Waves on Waves and you need 0.003 waves to make a transaction). And there are some unanswered questions on when COEVAL holders will receive their MNY and when they can sell the MNY.
Anyone seriously interested in purchasing MNY would likely buy COEVAL instead, so the market for MNY likely has a soft ceiling based on the selling price of COEVAL. The speculation chatter is saying "$1 billion hedge fund" but this seems like a lot more risk and the more likely scenario is $25-100m raised in the MNY ICO?
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Updating this with answers from Monkey Capital's Slack:
- MNY is available via pre-sale on Waves. 20M tokens were released during pre-sale (not ICO yet)
- COO did leave due to differences in how to conduct MNY ICO, not due to business model or technical features of platform
- Monkey Capital to release dividends from two investments in the first 2 months, payable to MNY holders in COEVAL
- Monkey Capital to announce another acquisition around time of MNY ICO
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They organized an airdrop of 200 COEVAL to every wave wallet that was holding COEVAL prior July 25th or something like that. The funds come from the personal wallet of the CEO, to say thank you to early adopters. They will be distributed tomorrow to 549 addresses. The Excel sheet with all addresses is available for download in the Slack channel - and my address is in there, jayy.
200 each or spread across 549 addresses (0.36 each)? |
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Steemit is mathematically designed to collapse in on itself (yes, I've read the whitepaper). The only question is when and if you can maximize your income before new users realize they can't make any money without significant luck or gamble on large power up investment.
The entire premise around upvoting good content is BS. Whales are incentivized to self-vote so they can make 50% per year. Medium sized SP accounts post crappy content all day long to self-vote and churn their followers who upvote in the false hope that this medium sized account will reciprocate some upvote love. There are literally posts like a picture of Hitler's head on a toilet (from our own profitgenerator here), or the dude that posts "random stuff from my bar" several times a day and makes $ because of self-voting.
Gone are the days of earning several hundred $ for a good post unless you are really lucky, or are a whale and voting your or your friends' posts. There are a few personalities that will break through (like Jerry Banfield who brought over his Youtube and Udemy following) and can churn out a living while the steem price holds. But as soon as user attraction ticks up, because people can't earn rewards anymore with so much competition and so little real upvoting, then the whales start powering down, and then the price will collapse.
TLDR: Steemit will collapse, but in the meantime, you can churn out some money from unsuspecting new users buying steem to power up their accounts.
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Nonsense. The payouts on Steemit are actually a drag on the price not a boost. Disagree. The payouts on Steemit have nothing to do with price directly because there is a fixed payout no matter if there's only 1 post per day or 14k posts per day. When there were only a few authors & curators, the rewards were higher. As the # of users has grown to over 200k (and climbing), the rewards per average user is going way down. The only way for rewards to continue to pay enough to keep people interested is if more people buy steem and power up their accounts with steem power (in order to earn more rewards). It's a classic Ponzi paradox. The reason the payouts will affect the price of steem is because the entire Steemit platform relies on new blood (the Ponzi aspect). New blood won't pay to power up if they are earning $0.01 per post. The new blood reads the posts from a year ago when a popular post could make $1500 and they think they can make money. When reality sets in and they realize they can't make any money without buying in at a high amount (and then taking a big risk that the platform will be around for a year so they can recoup their power up investment), everyone bails and the price tanks. If it pays out less, but only pays out to people who actually post great content (not plagiarizer shitposters, that copy paste newspaper articles), that gives value to Steemit. Bullshit. The whales and dolphin accounts post crappy content all day long so they can get their author and upvote rewards from self-voting + votes from their followers who worship them in false hopes that these large steem power accounts might show some upvote love to their minions. There is a TON of crappy content every few minutes (including posts like a picture of Hitler on a toilet). There are fake fan pages with NSFW content earning $50 because stupid people still up vote when they see skin. There's stupid memes and recycled Youtube content that is literally just a headline, 3 words and an image or video link making $ because they are posted by high steem power accounts. |
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Steemit can't last. None of the new users are making any money so they aren't going to invest. Watch it tank by end of year as user adoption shrinks and all the new users the last few months bail. Someone smart said https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1548369.msg20285001#msg20285001 about Steemit: The Steemit supporters seem to be celebrating the success of Steemit (200k users, 14k new posts per day), but the Steemit pyramid will come to an end soon. Here's why:
1. Rewards now are very little, often $0.00 or $0.01 for new users even with some upvotes. Because there is a fixed rewards pool, the rush of new users are all competing for that slice. While a year ago you could earn some decent $ posting even as an average user without the luck of a whale upvoting, now even with a dolphin account upvoting your post, you'll get make 10 cents. Motivation is not there to post.
2. Getting visibility and followers is really hard. They call it the grind - interacting with the community, building relationships, getting followers, aka social networking. But with 14k posts per day and growing, all the posts scroll past the first page in each tag so quickly, you get very little visibility. The success stories are the users who already have 100k+ followers on Youtube and bring them over. But those followers will give up after a week or two when they realize they can't earn much $ as an average user.
3. Since hard fork 19 (HF19), the dolphin and whale accounts are motivated to upvote themselves. The ability to earn $ curating other posts is very small compared to just upvoting your own posts or comments. This makes it harder for new users to earn and be discovered (one of the original premises of the platform).
4. There's a lot of crappy content. If you have 100k Steem Power and a few thousand followers, you need to churn out 2-4 posts a day to make your $100 to $300. The whale accounts that do upvote others tend to upvote the same few accounts, kind of like the 1% only doing business with other 1%ers. Good content is going unnoticed and crappy content such as bad memes, a few lines, reposting old videos, etc. earn $100+.
5. Bots, bots, bots. Some bots are good when they post useful comments or make upvotes to help new users, but most of the bots are just whale accounts auto-voting to maximize their rewards daily. Take the human interactions and curation out (even if they were limited due to the above reasons) and even fewer new users will earn rewards.
Conclusion: Steemit has a pyramid-like dependency on new money coming into steem to prop up the price. Users will start dropping off and new investors who may have looked to buy steem will shy away because it's too hard to earn now. It was a good ride for a few people who made $100k or more, early whale accounts made 7 figures. Time to power down before the other whales do and tank the price.
P.S.: If steem drops back down to 10-cents, do you buy in and try to ride a rebirth? |
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July 21, 2017 update for those following this thread.
The Steemit supporters seem to be celebrating the success of Steemit (200k users, 14k new posts per day), but the Steemit pyramid will come to an end soon. Here's why:
1. Rewards now are very little, often $0.00 or $0.01 for new users even with some upvotes. Because there is a fixed rewards pool, the rush of new users are all competing for that slice. While a year ago you could earn some decent $ posting even as an average user without the luck of a whale upvoting, now even with a dolphin account upvoting your post, you'll get make 10 cents. Motivation is not there to post.
2. Getting visibility and followers is really hard. They call it the grind - interacting with the community, building relationships, getting followers, aka social networking. But with 14k posts per day and growing, all the posts scroll past the first page in each tag so quickly, you get very little visibility. The success stories are the users who already have 100k+ followers on Youtube and bring them over. But those followers will give up after a week or two when they realize they can't earn much $ as an average user.
3. Since hard fork 19 (HF19), the dolphin and whale accounts are motivated to upvote themselves. The ability to earn $ curating other posts is very small compared to just upvoting your own posts or comments. This makes it harder for new users to earn and be discovered (one of the original premises of the platform).
4. There's a lot of crappy content. If you have 100k Steem Power and a few thousand followers, you need to churn out 2-4 posts a day to make your $100 to $300. The whale accounts that do upvote others tend to upvote the same few accounts, kind of like the 1% only doing business with other 1%ers. Good content is going unnoticed and crappy content such as bad memes, a few lines, reposting old videos, etc. earn $100+.
5. Bots, bots, bots. Some bots are good when they post useful comments or make upvotes to help new users, but most of the bots are just whale accounts auto-voting to maximize their rewards daily. Take the human interactions and curation out (even if they were limited due to the above reasons) and even fewer new users will earn rewards.
Conclusion: Steemit has a pyramid-like dependency on new money coming into steem to prop up the price. Users will start dropping off and new investors who may have looked to buy steem will shy away because it's too hard to earn now. It was a good ride for a few people who made $100k or more, early whale accounts made 7 figures. Time to power down before the other whales do and tank the price.
P.S.: If steem drops back down to 10-cents, do you buy in and try to ride a rebirth?
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The Steemit crash is coming soon. New users and minnows (those with very little Steem Power) will start leaving as it is almost impossible to earn rewards posting now. Not only is there "circle jerk" behavior as described above where whales and dolphins upvote themselves and their own circle (some have alts and vote their alts), but there are now over 14k posts per day on Steemit. The true believers say that is a sign of mass adoption, but the reality is that each of those 14k posts is fighting for upvotes and rewards.
Your post scrolls off the #tags so fast that unless you already have thousands of followers, it's near impossible to get noticed. You have to be really lucky and get upvoted by a whale, or take the full plunge and invest several thousand (or tens of thousands) and comment spam/engage with the community all day to build up a following.
The average new account will give up. If the new users are not buying steem on the exchanges to power up their accounts, there will be decreasing new money flowing into steem. Already you are seeing lots of posts from frustrated users who can't buy a vote (symbolism intended). While Steemit isn't an outright Ponzi or pyramid scheme because of the blockchain/currency/platform elements which can be monetized, Steemit does share the same characteristics of a Ponzi and pyramid scheme:
1. Early adopters make $ on the backs of later adopters
2. Participation must show continued growth forever - as soon as it slows, the death spiral begins
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I've lost my 8th case in a row today with Paypal, losing $1200 total. This is about 10% of all my bitcoin transactions last 2 months.
As careful as I am with checking buyer is verified Paypal address, ebay account is aged (ignore the positive reviews you can't leave negative buyer reviews anymore), etc. you can still be scammed in 2 common ways:
- Buyer is the actual buyer and just wants to defraud you, so they will dispute a charge with Paypal or their credit card (or both)
- Buyer's account was hacked and the actual 'unauthorized' dispute is legitimate, but your virtual or physical goods were already shipped
Don't believe the Paypal seller protection. Even if you ship physical goods with delivery confirmation (I had 10 lines of evidence in several cases), Paypal will automatically screw the seller in many cases including any credit card dispute or anything with the word 'bitcon' in it (even if you ship hardware). Don't believe the Paypal press that they are supporters of bitcoin. What they are is risk-adverse and will look to screw the seller at every opportunity at any sign of a dispute no matter how flimsy the evidence.
I saw a buyer dispute 16 Paypal transactions (by checking the feedback history on ebay and contacting each one). We all received dispute notices the same day. Buyer won all of them. Yeah, right, buyer makes 16 separate ebay transactions with Q&A and delivery acknowledgment and it's us 16 sellers that are the scammer. Paypal doesn't care about sellers.
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I've lost $1200 on Paypal due to bitcoin related transactions (not selling BTC direct, but other ebay auctions) where seller disputes even after I show 10 lines of evidence that buyer purchased and received, Paypal still rules against me.
The only way to get your $ back is to open a paypal account and defraud others. Paypal will always screw the seller.
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Now, why on Earth would mining profitability dictate long term price trends? If anything, bitcoin or other coins being unprofitable to mine would cause a price increase!
Because the majority of crypto coin adopters are those that got into it mining, investing in mining (shares or cloud), buying or selling mining equipment. You take mining out of the picture and the number of purist crypto coin adopters who care about everything except the mining drops dramatically. |
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