Latest posts of: FairlayBTCPredictions

The #Flippening: Will Ethereum overtake market capitalization of Bitcoin before August?

There’s been so many Bitcoin’s governance problems recently, that the Flippening is not anymore some distant paradigm shift but the thing that could happen in the following months if the total USD market capitalization of Ethereum overtakes market capitalization of Bitcoin. But, is it possible for the Flippening to happen before August?

With this, for the first time since 2009, when Bitcoin was unleashed on the world, its dominance of the cryptocurrency market has been challenged. And that challenge is huge as Ethereum's Ether token has increased 3,000% this year with no signs of slowing. At the same time, Ether's market cap has been drawing steadily close to Bitcoin's market cap.

Will the Flippening happen before August 1?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-the-flippening-happen-before-august-1/.

So, at the moment two cryptocurrencies worth $34bn (ETH) and $42bn (BTC) but that could easily change with the ongoing scaling dilemma among developers and entrepreneurs building on Bitcoin, while at the same time Ethereum has a strong network effect and ability to negate the similar governance issues. Indeed, Ethereum looks strong now.

All in all, it looks like that at the moment it is only a matter of time when will ETH surpass BTC in the market cap, and then follow by attacking Bitcoin’s price. Newest Fairlay market gives August 1 as a date before which the Flippening could happen, hoping that Bitcoin community could stop it with the SegWit2x proposal that Fairlay also supports.

Bitfinex Hack is almost a distant memory, but could another Bitcoin Exchange mess up before 2018?

For those who had no funds there, Bitfinex Hack that happened at the start of August last year is almost a distant memory. But for those who had funds there, fear of another exchange hack and funds loss will always be on their minds.

Just to remember that Bitfinex was shut down last August after 119,756 bitcoins, worth more than $65 million based on exchange rates at the time, were stolen from users' accounts. A lot was solved later on, but could another hack happen?

Bitcoin exchange to mess up before 2018
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-exchange-to-mess-up-before-2018/.

In fact, it did as South Korean bitcoin exchange Yapizon was hacked a month ago, losing more than $5 million worth of user funds as approximately 37% of user funds were hacked and exactly 3,816 bitcoins were stolen from the exchange.

Yapizon is not among the exchanges with the high trading volume, but could some of those biggest players lose at least 200 BTC during this year? Or, could some of them even go bankrupt? Well, predict this at the newest Fairlay market.

Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will face in the runoff at French presidential election: Who will prevail?

The first round of voting in the French presidential election on Sunday saw centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron and far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen make it through to the second round runoff scheduled for May 7. Yesterday, Macron took 8.4m votes (23.75%), while Le Pen took 7.6m (21.53%) – the highest ever score for the Front National.

Still, Le Pen is not given plenty of chances to become the next French President as this morning opinion polls have Macron beating her in the second round by 61% to 39%. At the same time, Fairlay market gives Macron a 87% chance.

Next French President
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-5/.

While Le Pen has no natural alliances with other parties, so she only issued a call for all patriots to join her, Francois Fillon, who came third, had said he would vote for Emmanuel Macron. The socialist candidate, Benoit Hamon, did the same, closely followed by the prime minister, the socialist Bernard Cazeneuve. So, it looks like Macron is in for the win.

But can Le Pen, who wants to leave the euro, return to the franc, exit the Schengen agreement and close French borders, once again defeated polls like Trump and Brexit did? If you have that opinion, use the great odds at Fairlay.

Quote from: upsidedown75 on April 13, 2017, 08:16:55 PM

Wow this seems so different than what we are used to.
A betting system on ANYTHING, I mean I could definitely support that. Plus for the last post I can say that I would definitely select AI over Human, in this case it is true as well, AlphaGo seems like he will take it. I am afraid what Google might achieve soon.

It is nice to here that you like the idea of betting on anything, so use the chance to create you own market at Fairlay. In the meantime, here is one trending market:

Theresa May caught us by surprise as today she called for snap elections on June 8, so who will win Majority?

Britain's Theresa May on Tuesday called for snap elections on June 8, catching the country by surprise in a bid to bolster her position before tough talks on leaving the European Union. So, will he manage to do that in the following months?

As AFP notes, despite repeatedly rejecting calls from within her Conservative party for an early vote, May has now decided to take advantage of her commanding lead over the main opposition Labour Party in opinion polls.

That margin in opinion polls reached even 20 points in the latest polls, so there are huge chances that the UK will have Conservative Majority after potential June 8 election. Second option in Fairlay market is No Overall Majority at all.

UK General Election Majority
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/uk-general-election-majority/.

By the way, British election dates are enshrined in law and can be changed only by a two-thirds majority vote in the Commons. Theresa May said she would ask parliament on Wednesday to decide on bringing this forward to June 8.

As the main opposition Labour party said it would back it, the UK will likely have these snap elections. But Labour Majority is not likely, but if you think that anything but Conservative Majority can happen you have great odds at Fairlay.

Theresa May caught us by surprise as today she called for snap elections on June 8, so who will win Majority?

Britain's Theresa May on Tuesday called for snap elections on June 8, catching the country by surprise in a bid to bolster her position before tough talks on leaving the European Union. So, will he manage to do that in the following months?

As AFP notes, despite repeatedly rejecting calls from within her Conservative party for an early vote, May has now decided to take advantage of her commanding lead over the main opposition Labour Party in opinion polls.

That margin in opinion polls reached even 20 points in the latest polls, so there are huge chances that the UK will have Conservative Majority after potential June 8 election. Second option in Fairlay market is No Overall Majority at all.

AlphaGo vs. Ke Jie is scheduled for May: Does Chinese No.1 Go master player has any chances against Google’s AI?

After a lot of speculation in the recent months, it’s been confirmed lately that DeepMind’s AlphaGo will takes on world’s top Go player Ke Jie in China in a three-game match starting May 23. It will be AlpaGo’s second official match after in march last year it took on and defeated one of the world’s top Go players, Lee Sedol. So, can Ke Jie do any better?

Well, hardly. In fact, back in January AlphaGo secretly (like an unknown player called ‘Master’) played 60 online matches against some of the world's best players, including Ke Jie who was defeated three times, and didn't lose a single one. Still, after those losses Ke Jie hasn’t given up hope, claiming that he still has ‘one last move’ to defeat AlphaGo.

Will AlphaGo beat Ke Jie in the three-game match planned for May 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-alphago-beat-ke-jie-in-the-three-game-match-planned-for-may-2017-1/.

Now, that ‘one last move’ for 19-year-old Ke Jie will be three matches on the 23rd, 25th and 27th of May. Though, after his first two losses to ‘Master’ in recent days, he acknowledged that humans are no match for AI in this game. It was change in opinion after Ke had been confident that AlphaGo could not beat him after the AI’s March victory over Sedol.

What is even worse for Ke Jie is that he will not play against AlpaGo’s version that defeated Sedol. In fact, the AlphaGo that played against Lee Sedol was v18. The Master that achieved 60-0 was v25. And it was already noted that it will be the newest version playing against Ke Jie in May. He will have a really hard job, so do you give him any chances to win?

TIME Person of the Year 2017: Angela Merkel, Theresa May, Emmanuel Macron, Narendra Modi, or someone else?

There was plenty of negative comments in December, when Donald Trump was announced ‘TIME Person of the Year 2016’ as many once again forgot that TIME Magazine gives this annual award to whichever person, group, idea or object that “for better or for worse...has done the most to influence the events of the year”. So, who could win it this year?

Angela Merkel won it in 2015, but she is still the No. 1 favorite to win it again as she could be re-elected Chancellor of Germany at the end of September. However, Martin Schulz could defeat her in September, so it is not a surprise to see him amongst the favorites as well. By stopping Merkel, he would surely took all the media focus at the end of the year.

TIME Person of the Year 2017
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/time-person-of-the-year-2017/.

Before that, a lot will be decided in the next weeks as we face French Election. Emmanuel Macron is leading the polls (and Fairlay market), with Marine Le Pen still in the race. Being the favorite for the next French President, Macron is given rather big chances to become TIME Person of the year as well, behind Theresa May who is already leading the UK.

Ebola fighters won this award in 2014, The Protester in 2011, while this year The White Helmets lead the groups of people. Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, was amongst the 10 runners-up last year and is still ranked high this year, as well as Pope Francis who already won the award in 2013. So, who will win it this year? Well, predict at Fairlay.

First round vote for the next French President: Who will win it and how many vote % will Marine Le Pen have?

Market for the next French President is one of the most popular ever at Fairlay, and it will be decided quite soon as the first round is scheduled for April 23, with the potential runoff at May 7. And though there were many changes at first, in the last couple of months Emmanuel Macron is keeping lead over Marine Le Pen, with Francoise Fillon staying behind.

Next French President
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-2/.

And though Macron is the favorite to win the runoff, could he win the most votes in the First round as well? This week, a Le Monde/Cevipof opinion poll said that centrist French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron and far-right rival Marine Le Pen are tied on 25 percent of the first-round election vote. So, it is a tight race and you can use that at Fairlay.

Next French President: First round winner
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-first-round-winner/.

Thus, at Fairay, Marine Le Pen is still given slightly bigger chance to win the first round but even if she wins it, with how many vote % will she win it? At the moment, 20% to 30% looks like a sure bet, but a lot of people think polls could once again be wrong. Could she go above 30%, or even 40%, or disappoint by staying above 20%? Well, make your opinion.

Marine Le Pen 1st round vote %
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/marine-le-pen-1st-round-vote/.

2017 Nobel Peace Prize Winner: Pope Francis, American Civil Liberties Union, White Helmets, or someone else?

There were plenty of different reactions after the 2016 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the President of Colombia Juan Manuel Santos, as the announcement was a surprise since before that the national referendum on October 2 was narrowly defeated. What kind of reactions are we going to have after 2017 Nobel Peace Prize announcement?

It is not a surprise that Pope Francis is once again amongst the biggest favorites, and media will once again write that he should win it as the Pope has framed all the current issues in moral terms, asking for all of the world’s people and governments to reflect upon and live out their moral responsibilities to creation and the vulnerable people of the world.

But, who else could take the Nobel Peace Prize this year? Currently, American Civil Liberties Union is a popular choice as their stated mission "to defend and preserve the individual rights and liberties guaranteed to every person in this country by the Constitution and laws of the United States" is a popular one against the policies of Donald Trump.

2017 Nobel Peace Prize Winner
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-nobel-peace-prize-winner/.

The White Helmets, a volunteer civil defense organization that currently operates in parts of rebel-controlled Syria, are once again amongst the favorites as they still wake up every day to save the lives others are trying so hard to take. These volunteer rescue workers have saved 85,228 lives in Syria, though they are every day under the constant attack.

As for the world leaders, Angela Merkel is again ranked high, while Nobel Peace Prize could posthumously be awarded to Jo Cox who, among the others things, supported the White Helmets in the last years of her life. Raif Badawi, a Saudi writer, dissident and activist, as well as the creator of the website Free Saudi Liberals, is also amongst the favorites.

Above named are among the six ranked highest at the this year Nobel Peace Prize Fairlay market, but option ‘Other’ could once again be popular as some think that persons like Amal Clooney, Sadiq Khan, or Michelle Obama could win it. So, who is your favorite, and who will get us plenty of different reactions after the announcement is made in October?

How likely is Bitcoin ETF approval? Friday will bring the answer but what will it be?

March 11 has for weeks been in the focus of Bitcoin community as the US Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) decision on the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) is scheduled for that day. Though, because the 11th falls on a Saturday, that decision will likely come tomorrow. But what will it be, and will Bitcoin ETF be approved?

As CoinTelegraph wrote yesterday, around 72 percent of the public is in favor of the Bitcoin ETF approval so far. The other 28 percent have cited some of the issues the Bitcoin network is dealing with, but in consideration of the state of the Bitcoin network as of current, the problems mentioned by ETF opposers aren’t necessarily urgent issues which the SEC should consider for the ETF approval.

Will a Bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC?
Predict at: https://fairlay.com/market/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-by-the-sec-by-may-1-2017/.

One of the issues that were frequently brought up by the ETF opposers was the fear of hard fork. Some of the public comments included concerns over the execution of a potential hard fork and the occurrence of a split chain. A split in the chain could lead to the creation of another fork of bitcoin and essentially create two currencies, the 28 percent of the public stated that a Bitcoin ETF isn’t ready to be introduced to the public.

Still, at Fairlay market Bitcoin ETF Approaval is given an only 41 percent at the moment, as traders are already preparing for the storm. So, the SEC doesn’t benefit from the approval of the Bitcoin ETF as the SEC isn’t incentivized for the performance of the ETF but it will surely change the Bitcoin price a lot. In which way, up or down?

Eurovision Song Contest 2017: Can anyone stop Italy and Francesco Gabbani from winning it this year?

Eurovision 2016 market was one of the most popular Fairlay markets last year, so it is already time to start making the predictions for Eurovision 2017. This year Eurovision will take place take place in Kiev, following Ukraine's victory at the 2016 contest in Stockholm. It will consist of two semi-finals held on 9 and 11 May and the final on 13 May 2017.

43 countries will participate this year, and though some of them still didn’t announce who will represent them (they will in the following weeks), there is already a lot of talk about the potential winners. For that matter, most eyes are on Sweden that is still to hold Final of its Melodifestivalen 2017, with plenty of popular artists looking for their place in Kiev.

Eurovision 2017 - Winner
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/eurovision-2017-winner/.

Because of this, Sweden is already the second favorite at Eurovison 2017 market, followed by Greece and its beautiful Dimitra Papadea, also known as Demy, and Russia that is still to announce its candidate. Australia, which is to announce its candidate on Tuesday, is still ranked high, as well as Romania which will keep its National Final on Sunday.

Still, most of the talk at the moment is about Italy and its Francesco Gabbani. He will come to Kiev with the ‘Occidentali's Karma’ song that already won the Sanremo Music Festival 2017, and has 40 million Youtube views since its release three weeks ago. So, Eurovision market opens with Italy being the biggest favorite but will that change in the next weeks?