Prediction Markets on Fairlay

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

German Federal Election: Will CDU/CSU win the most seats, and will Angela Merkel take the fourth term in office?

This year brings few of the high-stakes elections around the European Union that, after Brexit, could bring even greater uncertainty to the bloc. It all starts with the Netherlands’ General Election on March 15, continues with France’s Presidential Election in April and May, and should finish on September 24 with German Federal Election.

Will the end of September bring another term for Chancellor Angela Merkel, or will she be stopped this year?

Merkel to be replaced as Chancellor in 2017
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/merkel-to-be-replaced-as-chancellor-in-2017/.



As France24 wrote recently, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party and its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union or CSU, are widely tipped to win the largest share of seats, handing Chancellor Angela Merkel a fourth term in office. But they are unlikely to match the 42% of votes won in 2013, since the winds of rebellion that have swept across the Western world are also lashing at Europe’s bastion of stability.

Merkel's "open door" refugee policy and a heightened terrorist threat have exposed her to unprecedented criticism, and some surveys showed that support for the right-wing, anti-immigrant, anti-Islam, Eurosceptic AfD (Alternative for Germany) party had soared to more than 15% nationwide. Could they use the following months even better?

But AfD is still the third favorite behind Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), and the Social Democrats (SPD).

German Federal Election - Most Seats
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/german-federal-election-most-seats/.



Angela Merkel surely likes being the German chancellor and she already announced that she will run for a fourth term (she has held the post since 2005) but on Monday she also admitted that she was facing the toughest election campaign of her career, as a shock opinion poll found her party trailing for the first time in almost seven years.

According to the poll for Bild newspaper, Martin Schulz, the former European parliament president and outspoken EU critic, is now leading the race to be Germany’s next leader. His centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) came first with 31 per cent, ahead of Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) on 30 per cent. Thus, Martin Schulz has now emerged as the most serious challenger Angela Merkel has faced in more than a decade in power.

Though Angela Merkel is still Fairlay’s favorite, Schulz is not far behind. So, September 24 will be all but a boring day.

German Federal Election - Next Elected Chancellor
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/german-federal-election-next-elected-chancellor/.

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[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Segregated Witness' political implications: Will SegWit activate before November?

“Bitcoin Unlimited blocks are on the rise while Core block are dropping. #Segwit activation at 95% is not happening anytime soon.“

“If the brilliant "BU Economists" weren't politicking, they'd acknowledge #SegWit would lower fees today & they would push for activation.“

“Angry guys can get a lot done, and a commitment to stick with BU is yet another actor blocking #SegWit activation.“

These are some of the recent tweets regarding Segregated Witness which confirm that SegWit is still controversial due to its political implications for the Bitcoin ecosystem. Could those stop Segregated Witness from activating?

Will SegWit activate before November 1st 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-segwit-activate-before-november-1st-2017/.



But it is not only about 'Bitcoin Core vs Bitcoin Unlimited' as a lot of companies remain undecided on whether or not they should prepare SegWit support. The longer the companies wait, the longer it will take for SegWit activation.

In the meantime, the number of SegWit-enabled blocks discovered on the networks is still around low 25%. Thus, it is a big question can (and if, when) Seg Wit reach 95% support?

And though some people are confident SegWit will activate in March, even November activation is not a sure thing. In fact, Fairlay market gives SegWit only a 37% chance to activate before November.

So, what do you think? Will issues in politics be resolved by hand with those in technology, and will Bitcoin Unlimited supporters and companies stand behind Segregated Witness? Or will SegWit soon become just a part of history?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Far-right party still leading in Dutch polls: Will PVV and Geert Wilders prevail in March 15 General Election?

We already have markets for France’s Presidential Election in April and May, and German Federal Election that is scheduled for September 24 but the set of high-stakes elections that could derail the European Union starts on March 15 with the Dutch General Election. And the far-right Freedom Party (PVV) is leading in the polls.

Leader of PVV is Geert Wilders, who has already called for a Brexit-style referendum on quitting the EU and a ban on immigration from Muslim countries. With this rebellious mood that helped Brexit and Trump, his anti-EU, anti-immigrant and anti-Islam party could take the following election and most seats in the next government.

Dutch General Election - Most Seats
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/dutch-general-election-most-seats/.



However, even if it wins the General Election it is unlikely that the PVV will be part of the next coalition. A broad coalition of other mainstream parties is still likely to shut Wilders and his PVV out. In January, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte ruled out a coalition between his People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and the PVV.

As some of the recent polls showed that Geert Wilders' PVV is set to win 35 of the 76 seats needed to form a coalition government (as the VVD is about to win just 23), there are opinions that Wilders is not too far away from becoming the Dutch Prime Minister. Fairlay market gives a 29% chance for this to happen. What do you think?

Geert Wilders to become Dutch Prime Minister in 2017
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/geert-wilders-to-become-dutch-prime-minister-in-2017/.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Bitfinex's Token (BFX) reached all time price high of $0.84: Will it reach $1 before 2018?

Remember August 2 and Bitfinex Hack? You probably do. Maybe you are even of of the Bitfinex depositor that took a 36% loss, and was credited with an equivalent number of Bitfinex tokens (BFX) representing the dollar value of the loss. Well, if you still have those BFX tokens you can now sell them at $0.84, all time price high.

So, in the start Bitfinex $1 loss granted 1 BFX in return, and it was a long-term idea that Bitfinex attempts to buy back those tokens as close to face value as possible. In August, many didn't think that even $0.5 in return was possible.

But BFX soon started to grow, and after trading within a range of between $0.49 and $0.65 through the end of 2016, the price of BFX has followed a steady, upward trend, rising almost 60% from its recent low of $0.49 in December. And with its current price of $0.83, it looks like BFX could soon reach the magic price of $1.

Will 1 BFX reach 1 USD?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-1-bfx-reach-1-usd/.



As CoinDesk wrote recently, the Bitfinex tokens have enjoyed notable gains lately as investors continue to purchase them in anticipation of later redeeming them for dollars or equity in iFinex Inc, Bitfinex’s parent company.

And in January statement Bitfinex said that it will continue to "expeditiously retire" more tokens via a variety of initiatives going forward. Thus, some think that all the tokens could be 'retired' in 2017, and that means that BFX could reach $1 before 2018. With the recent rise, it could even happen in the following months.

So, what do you think? How soon will BFX reach $1 and could its price go even above $1 before all the tokens are 'retired'? After slow opening, Fairlay market now gives a 85% chance for 1 BFX to reach 1 USD in 2017.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Russian Presidential Election is set for March 2018: Will Vladimir Putin be re-elected?

Yesterday, Russia's main opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, has been found guilty of embezzlement and handed a five-year suspended sentence. This bars him from running for president next year against Vladimir Putin.

So yes, current President Vladimir Putin is eligible to seek re-election at the Russian presidential election that is scheduled to be held on March 11, 2018 for the first round and April 1, 2018 for the potential second round.

Now the only question is will he enter elections and then win them? January 30 polling once again gave him high 65%, with Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who is already confirmed as candidate of Liberal Democratic Party, following with only 10%. Potential Communist Party candidate Gennady Zyuganov is polling with 4%, all others with 1% or less.

Russian Presidential Election
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/russian-presidential-election/.



Besides not entering elections, only thing stopping Putin from winning is some major economic crisis but it's not likely to happen in the following years. So, those who want to use high odds betting against Putin can use rumors that Putin will not enter as they are preparing the new guy, someone like Alexey Dyumin, Governor of Tula Oblast.

There are also many other potential replacements from the ruling United Russia party, those like former President and current Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, or Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov.

With Navalny barred from running, Putin entering or not entering elections will probably decide them. But could it be smart to already bet on anyone but Putin if rumors of him not running are true? You have Fairlay for that.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Will Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC on March 11?

Three years ago, the Winklevoss brothers, twins Cameron and Tyler, had filed their first application for a bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) called Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust. Investors soon showed keen interest in the Winklevoss ETF but it is still scheduled to be approved by the SEC (the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission).

If this approval happens, this would be the first bitcoin ETF issued by a U.S. entity, and this ETF would trade under the ticker symbol COIN. In October, they also filed amendments to their proposed bitcoin exchange-traded fund, naming State Street (American worldwide financial services holding company) as administrator.

At the start of January, the SEC said it will decide on March 11 whether to approve the COIN. Soon after that Needham & Company (independent investment bank and asset management firm specializing in advisory services and financings for growth companies) put together a report on the prospects of the Winklevoss twins’ proposed ETF.

Will a bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC by May 1, 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-by-the-sec-by-may-1-2017/.



According to the report, the positive effect that a bitcoin ETF would have on the price of bitcoin is vastly underappreciated, and the probability of approval is drastically overestimated within the industry (not a surprise as it would, in the first week alone, lead to an influx of $300 million in new investor capital into the bitcoin ecosystem).

Thus, Needham puts the chances of a bitcoin ETF approval in 2017 at below 25 percent. As Bitcoin Magazine notes, due to the nascent nature of the technology as well as the fear, uncertainty and doubt surrounding it, Needham thinks approval of the bitcoin ETF will be too risky a proposition for individuals working at the SEC at this time.

The SEC already had few delays about this decision but it's important to note that the series of possible extensions permitted by law is capped at 240 days from the initial submission date in June 2016. So, March 11 should bring the answer, and what do you think it will be? At the moment, Fairlay market gives this approval only a 23% chance.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

When will the UK trigger Article 50, and in which year will it leave the EU?

Britain voted to leave the European Union at a referendum held 232 days ago, but that referendum in which British voters opted to leave the European Union did not automatically signal the country's exit. That is the job of Article 50, and Britain's negotiations to exit the EU can only begin when Article 50 is formally triggered by the UK.

When will Article 50 be triggered?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-the-uk-trigger-article-50-before-1-july-2017/.

Theresa May finally revealed ahead of her first speech as Prime Minister at the Tory Party Conference that she would trigger Article 50, formally notifying the intention to withdraw, no later than the end of March 2017. And as Telegraph writes, that means Britain should officially leave the EU no later than April 2019. 

Thus, the process of the UK leaving the EU is supposed to take two years but many people believe that it could take longer. The road ahead is unclear. No state has left the European Union before, and the rules for exit, contained in Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon (which became law in December 2009), are brief.



In which year will the UK leave the EU?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/in-which-year-will-the-uk-leave-the-eu/.

The next stage of the Article 50 will see the Brexit bill scrutinized by the House of Lords, where the Government does not have a majority, on Monday, February 20. So, it is likely that Article 50 will be triggered before July, and Fairlay market gives it a high 90% chance. But will the UK leave the EU in 2019? Other Fairlay market gives it a 73% chance.

Or, if the government decides that parliament and public opinion have thoroughly turned against Brexit, the UK could simply go cap in hand to the EU and "ask whether we can just forget the whole thing and remain a member", as it was explained by the fact-checking charity Full Fact. What do you think about all of this?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Adele vs. Beyoncé: Which one will be the queen of the 59th annual Grammy Awards held on Sunday?

The 59th annual Grammy Awards are scheduled for the following Sunday at it looks like they could be interesting as ever. The main reason for this is one of the Grammy’s most electric contest in years: Adele vs. Beyoncé.

They will face off in each of the top three categories: Album, Record, and Song Of The Year, but they rivalry will also touch some sensitive topics like race as some think that Grammys too often fail to recognize black performers.

Grammys 2017 - Adele vs. Beyoncé
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/grammys-2017-adele-vs-beyonce/.

As Fairlay market gives Beyoncé a 60% chance to win more Grammy Awards than Adele, it is rather important to note that Beyoncé has nine nominations, the most this year, while Adele is nominated in ‘only’ five categories.

Still, some think that we could see a sweep by Adele who is, besides those three main categories, also nominated for Best Pop Solo Performance, and Best Pop Vocal Album. Fairlay market gives her a 28% chance to win the all five.

Grammys 2017 - Adele to win five Grammys
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/grammys-2017-adele-to-win-five-grammys/.



Category that Adele could the most easily lose on Sunday is for Album of the Year as Beyonce’s ‘Lemonade’ is given a bit more chances at the Fairlay market (though not too much: 60% to 39%) than Adele is for her ‘25’.

And yes, let’s note that Sturgill Simpson, Justin Bieber, Drake, Rihanna, Lukas Graham, Twenty One Pilots, and Mike Posner also got nominations in the three main categories but it looks like that it will be all about Adele vs. Beyoncé.

Grammys 2017 - Album Of The Year
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/grammys-2017-album-of-the-year/.

Also, let’s once again note that Record Of The Year recognizes every aspect of a track (performance, production, mixing, etc), while Song Of The Year focuses solely on the songwriting. But can Adele still win both of them?

She is a rather big favorite for Song Of The Year (which is, of course, ‘Hello’) as Fairlay market gives her a 76% chance to win this category. Beyoncé and her ‘Formation’ are the second favorite, but with the only a 19% chance given.

Grammys 2017 - Song Of The Year
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/grammys-2017-song-of-the-year/.



We have ‘Hello’ vs. ‘Formation’ duel for Record Of The Year as well, though Beyoncé is now given a bit more chances Still, Adele is once again the first favorite with a 62% chance given to prevail in this category as well.

So, Los Angeles and its Staples Center will get all the attention on Sunday evening, but who will get it on Monday morning: Adele or Beyoncé? You surely have your favorite, and now you can also use the high odds at Fairlay.

Grammys 2017 - Record Of The Year
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/grammys-2017-record-of-the-year/.

P.S. If you want to place bets in the market that has neither Adele nor Beyoncé, you can place prediction on Best New Artist category. Chance the Rapper is given a 69% chance, followed with The Chainsmokers who have a 27%.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Can Bitcoin Unlimited overatake SegWit, and then reach a 75% support during this year?

Though it looked rather different few months ago, things are once again changing when it comes to scaling. After the great start, SegWit unexpectedly stalled at around 25%, and has been slightly dropping in the past few weeks. And SegWit's future doesn't look great as Fairlay market now gives it only a 22% chance to activate before November.

But while SegWit has stalled, Bitcoin Unlimited has quietly gained further adoption. As reporter Andrew Quentson wrote last month, a considerable increase in its difficulty coincides with the entrance of a new miner, BTC.TOP. They appear to be mining on Unlimited, the fourth new miner to do so, following ViaBTC, GBMiners and bitcoin.com.

Will Bitcoin Unlimited reach 75% support in 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-bitcoin-unlimited-reach-75-support-in-2017/.



It appears, therefore, that rather than a stalemate miners have made a clear decision. They seem to have fully rejected SegWit. They appear to strongly require a maxblocksize increase and the newer miners seem to clearly prefer Bitcoin Unlimited as they are convinced that Bitcoin Unlimited is the best approach at the moment.

So, this new dynamic suggests that with Bitcoin Unlimited now nearing 20%, potentially further increasing as the new miners exploit inefficiencies and grab all opportunities, the network might not be far off from a significant threshold where other miners have little choice, but to join. Thus, can Bitcoin Unlimited reach 75% support?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Trump tweeted “SEE YOU IN COURT” but will Supreme Court review, and then reinstate his travel ban?

The Justice Department said in a brief filed on yesterday that it would continue to defend President Trump’s targeted ban in the federal appeals court in San Francisco, which last week refused to reinstate it. As The New York Times notes, the department did not say whether it would try to appeal that ruling to the Supreme Court.

But its silence on the matter suggested that the Trump administration will not pursue an immediate appeal. So, it is possible that administration may have decided that the chances of success at the Supreme Court are poor, as it appears unlikely that any of the court’s four more liberal justices would support the administration’s position.



Will Supreme Court reinstate Trump travel ban?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-supreme-court-reinstate-trump-travel-ban/.

Thus, unless the appeals court or the Supreme Court acts, Judge Robart’s temporary restraining order, which blocked the key provisions of targeted travel ban, will remain in place. Still, for many Trump’s tweet “SEE YOU IN COURT, THE SECURITY OF OUR NATION IS AT STAKE!” indicated that he will ask the Supreme Court to review the appeal.

But if the Supreme Court agreed to hear an emergency appeal in the case, a ruling might be expected quickly, within days, given the brisk pace of appeals so far. Thus, the next question is will Trump appeal the case, and then it’s all on the side of Supreme Court. At the moment, Fairlay market gives only a 29% chance that it will reinstate Trump ban.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Bitcoin's price battles resistance at $1,000: How long will it take for a $1000 level to break?

Bitcoin prices continued to fluctuate around $1,000 these days, some hours above and some hours below it. Currently it is at $1009, but it will be interesting to see where will it go next as there are many factors at the moment. Focus is on China, but there is also possible approval of Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF, while support for either SegWit or Bitcoin Unlimited could go up in the following months. And how will all of this influence Bitcoin price?

Bitcoin price on March 1
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-price-on-march-1-6/.

As CoinDesk explains, all eyes are still on China as, according to analysts, traders remain reluctant about placing bets in the market, as concerns linger about further actions from the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the nation's central bank. The digital currency has experienced significant volatility in the last several weeks, as the PBOC's decision to crack down on domestic exchanges has caused these marketplaces to announce a slew of sudden policy changes.

Bitcoin to top 1150 USD before March 1
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1150-usd-before-march-1/.

But trader sentiment is also a factor and there's evidence backing this theory, as traders put in a large number sell orders around the $1,000 price point. This resistance was confirmed by both order book data and the input of market analysts. Exchanges Bitfinex and Kraken showed the number of sell orders exceeding the number of buy orders close to the $1,000 mark. So, it looks like that $1,000 is a level that is going to take some time to break.



Bitcoin price on April 1
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-price-on-april-1-5/.

"The $1,000 level is indeed a strong psychological resistance. Bitcoin will need to cleanly break above $1,000 (high-volume rise and sustained price action above 1000) to transform that level into price support," explained for CoinDesk Petar Zivkovski, COO of leveraged bitcoin trading platform Whaleclub. He added that there are potential bullish catalysts, citing the approval of a Bitcoin ETF or positive regulatory news from China as two possible boons.

Will a bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC by May 1, 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-by-the-sec-by-may-1-2017/.

Thus, it remains to be seen how the markets will evolve over the coming weeks. The bitcoin price has held firm so far, although there is still a bit of unrest to be noted all over the world. As The Merkle notes, China is no longer in charge of dictating the global average value of bitcoin. But, without market not being dictated by one nation, what will happen with Bitcoin Price in the next week? Will it go up, down, or will stay around $1000 for the time being?

Bitcoin to top 1300 USD before May 1
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1300-usd-before-may-1/.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor fight getting closer? Will it happen this, or at least the next year?

News broke on the morning of Valentine’s Day that Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor have agreed financial terms for a boxing match that would be one of the $$$ ones in the sport’s history. So, will this fight actually happen?

Rumors about Mayweather’s comeback started in April last year, and already in May started talks that fight between Mayweather and MMA star McGregor is in the works. But, till two days ago, most viewed the likelihood of this matchup to be more fantasy than reality, and then couple of different reports told that the fight is rather possible.



Will Mayweather vs. McGregor happen in 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-mayweather-vs-mcgregor-happen-in-2017/.

Still, at the same time, UFC boss Dana White has dealt a blow to fight fans hoping to see a clash between Conor McGregor and Floyd Mayweather, by insisting the showdown will never happen as Conor has contract with MMA.

Thus, will UFC star Conor McGregor ever step into the ring to face boxing legend Floyd Mayweather? It is also important to note that any fight would almost certainly be under boxing rules (at Fairlay market for this fight to happen it must be an official licensed boxing contest) as McGregor also applied for a boxing license last year.



Will Mayweather vs. McGregor happen before 2019?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-mayweather-vs-mcgregor-happen-before-2019/.

Though Mayweather has not fought since September 2015, and McGregor is the current UFC lightweight champion, boxing pundits think that Mayweather would absolutely dust McGregor, as McGregor has no pro boxing experience.

But, in the end, it is all about money. For Mayweather to step from his wealthy retirement, the money has to be right. And as Mayweather can wait, McGregor needs him far more than he needs McGregor. So, will this fight happen this, or at least next year? There are different opinions and now you can make your own at Fairlay.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

April 23 brings the French presidential election: Who will win the first round, and who will be in the runoff?

As Bloomberg wrote this morning, French bonds are weakening on the news that two left-wing candidates, Benoit Hamon and Jean-Luc Melenchon, are holding talks to unify their campaigns, potentially setting up a final-round showdown between Marine Le Pen and a leftist. At the same time, markets perceive this to be good news for the anti-euro candidate, and her odds of winning in the betting markets have hit a new high of about 35 percent.

Next French President
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-2/.

Fairlay’s market gives Le Pen a 31% chance at the moment, with Emmanuel Macron still in lead with a 44% chance to be the next French President. As Francois Fillon has a 17% chance, could the possible cooperation of two main left-leaning candidates get on move option ‘Other’ that is now at only 12%? As for the first round vote, scheduled for April 23, with runoff set for May 7, Marine Le Pen is still a rather big favorite to win the most votes in April.



Next French President: First round winner
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-first-round-winner/.

Since the start of January, Le Pen has been in lead at all the ‘First round’ polls that give her now around a 26% chance, with Macron and FIllon tied at 20% for the first round. But new Fairlay market gives Le Pen high 69%, Macron is at 24%, while Fillon and all the other candidates are almost without the chance to prevail in April. Still, possible uniting of the left could easily change all of this, and who would then enter the runoff in May?

Next French President: Final Two
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-final-two-1/.

It is not a surprise that the combination of Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen is given the most chances to be on the runoff election, while Francois Fillon and Marine Le Pen facing each other on May 7 wouldn’t be such a surprise either. But could Benoit Hamon or Jean-Luc Melenchon find their way to the runoff as well, or could Le Pen stay without it? Well, with Trump and Brexit we learned that anything is possible so predict wisely at Fairlay markets.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

How high will go Bitcoin price on March 15, if Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF is approved by the SEC on March 11?

Winklevoss twins’ Bitcoin ETF is taking more and more focus of the Bitcoin community as on March 11 the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) should finally make YES or NO verdict in case of the final and official approval of the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust ETF (COIN). We already talked about the chances of this approval coming through.

Most think that this ETF will not be approved as they agree that this approval of the Bitcoin ETF is too risky a proposition for individuals working at the SEC at this time. Still, approval’s chances at Fairlay market got a bit up recently as it is now given a 32% chance, after being at 23% ten days ago. So, could this approval really happen?



Will a Bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC by May 1, 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-by-the-sec-by-may-1-2017/.

And as chances for this approval are slightly going up, talk about how high up will Bitcoin price go after the approval is rather popular these days. That Bitcoin will go up is almost sure, as ETF would likely attract more than $300 million into the market in its first week alone. Some even say that up to $1 billion will be injected into the market.

Ten days ago, quantitative analysis and value research firm, Emerita Capital, assigned a probability of 35% for approval against 65% probability of rejection, making final average expected price $1645. They also provide a target price of $3,678 for Bitcoin in case an ETF is approved in 2017 and a target price of $551 in case it is rejected this year.



Bitcoin price on March 15 if Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF is approved by the SEC?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-price-on-march-15-if-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf-is-approved-by-the-sec/.

So, it is sure that the approval of this Bitcoin ETF could set off a trading frenzy, but how big could it be? As WSJ explained, the small size of the Bitcoin market could still be an impediment to orderly fund trading. Across all U.S. exchanges the average daily volume of bitcoin traded is about $30 million. Thus, it's not easy to grab $300 million.

Though, it is also noted that it’s impossible to buy $2 million of bitcoin on any given day on U.S. exchanges without moving the market. So, if Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust ETF is approved on March 11, what could happen in the following days, and where could Bitcoin price be on March 15? Up to $1200, $1400, above $1500? Well, predict at Fairlay.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Kim Dotcom faces US Extradition but will he indeed be extradited to the USA?

“My C̶o̶p̶y̶r̶i̶g̶h̶t̶ no sorry, my Fraud judgement has been reported by 8642 news sites in 196 countries. Most prominent case in NZ history,” twitted Kim Dotcom, founder of file-storage and file-sharing companies Mega and Megaupload, after he has suffered another defeat in court. In the latest ruling, New Zealand High Court upheld an earlier decision finding that Dotcom and business associates could be extradited to the USA to face charges.

As TechCrunch noted, while the latest legal decision means Dotcom could face charges in the USA, it is a victory in one sense: As part of the ruling, Justice Gilbert agreed with one of Dotcom’s arguments, namely that New Zealand had no equivalent “copyright” crime that could be used to activate the extradition treaty. However, the High Court ruled that Dotcom and others could be extradited on USA fraud and racketeering charges.



So, will Kim Dotcom be extradited to USA?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-kim-dotcom-be-extradited-to-usa/.

Once again, Dotcom plans to appeal the ruling, which could send the case to the Court of Appeal and perhaps even the New Zealand Supreme Court. In an interview with the New Zealand Herald, Dotcom predicted there are still another two years of legal battles ahead: "We'll be looking at a seven-year total timeframe before there is a final resolution on this matter. I am now more confident than ever that we will prevail." Will they, indeed?

“Don't worry. Be happy. I'll never be extradited,“ twitted the ever-confident Dotcom as well yesterday. But, most think that Kim Dotcom is likely to be extradited to the USA, despite a New Zealand judge clearing him of local copyright infringement. His legal team managed to clear his name of copyright infringement, but will Kim Dotcom in the next two years be extradited to the United States of America to face trial for other 13 counts? Predict at Fairlay.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Marine Le Pen and leaving Euro: Will Deutsche Bank go bankrupt if Le Pen becomes the French President?

As Deutsche Welle wrote recently, Deutsche Bank, Germany's biggest lender, has accrued a massive loss for the second year running as legal costs for past misdeeds outstripped profits from bond trading, disappointing investors who had hoped for a better result.

The troubled German banking giant reported a net loss of 1.4 billion euros ($1.5 billion) for 2016, so Deutsche Bank is still struggling with the impact of huge fines, lower revenues and restructuring costs. And later on, New York and British financial regulators slapped Deutsche Bank with a $630-million penalty for alleged money laundering in Russia.



Will Deutsche Bank go bankrupt if Marine Le Pen becomes the French President?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-deutsche-bank-go-bankrupt-if-marine-le-pen-becomes-french-president/.

Today, Business Insider wrote that Deutsche Bank is set to announce another big shake-up in its senior ranks. The changes would be the latest in a series of leadership changes at the bank that could face even bigger problems in May, if Marine Le Pen becomes the next French President as she has promised to renegotiate the terms of France's membership of the European Union if elected president.

So, many agree that Deutsche Bank, which is already in freefall, could get near bankruptcy if Le Pen becomes the next French President. Even if it gets on the brink of bankruptcy, it could easily be bailed out by German government, though Fairlay market resolves this like bankruptcy as well. So, what will happen?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Eurovision Song Contest 2017: Can anyone stop Italy and Francesco Gabbani from winning it this year?

Eurovision 2016 market was one of the most popular Fairlay markets last year, so it is already time to start making the predictions for Eurovision 2017. This year Eurovision will take place take place in Kiev, following Ukraine's victory at the 2016 contest in Stockholm. It will consist of two semi-finals held on 9 and 11 May and the final on 13 May 2017.

43 countries will participate this year, and though some of them still didn’t announce who will represent them (they will in the following weeks), there is already a lot of talk about the potential winners. For that matter, most eyes are on Sweden that is still to hold Final of its Melodifestivalen 2017, with plenty of popular artists looking for their place in Kiev.



Eurovision 2017 - Winner
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/eurovision-2017-winner/.

Because of this, Sweden is already the second favorite at Eurovison 2017 market, followed by Greece and its beautiful Dimitra Papadea, also known as Demy, and Russia that is still to announce its candidate. Australia, which is to announce its candidate on Tuesday, is still ranked high, as well as Romania which will keep its National Final on Sunday.

Still, most of the talk at the moment is about Italy and its Francesco Gabbani. He will come to Kiev with the ‘Occidentali's Karma’ song that already won the Sanremo Music Festival 2017, and has 40 million Youtube views since its release three weeks ago. So, Eurovision market opens with Italy being the biggest favorite but will that change in the next weeks?

[cyrixcer]

Will Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC on March 11?

Three years ago, the Winklevoss brothers, twins Cameron and Tyler, had filed their first application for a bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) called Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust. Investors soon showed keen interest in the Winklevoss ETF but it is still scheduled to be approved by the SEC (the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission).

If this approval happens, this would be the first bitcoin ETF issued by a U.S. entity, and this ETF would trade under the ticker symbol COIN. In October, they also filed amendments to their proposed bitcoin exchange-traded fund, naming State Street (American worldwide financial services holding company) as administrator.

At the start of January, the SEC said it will decide on March 11 whether to approve the COIN. Soon after that Needham & Company (independent investment bank and asset management firm specializing in advisory services and financings for growth companies) put together a report on the prospects of the Winklevoss twins’ proposed ETF.

Will a bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC by May 1, 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-by-the-sec-by-may-1-2017/.



According to the report, the positive effect that a bitcoin ETF would have on the price of bitcoin is vastly underappreciated, and the probability of approval is drastically overestimated within the industry (not a surprise as it would, in the first week alone, lead to an influx of $300 million in new investor capital into the bitcoin ecosystem).

Thus, Needham puts the chances of a bitcoin ETF approval in 2017 at below 25 percent. As Bitcoin Magazine notes, due to the nascent nature of the technology as well as the fear, uncertainty and doubt surrounding it, Needham thinks approval of the bitcoin ETF will be too risky a proposition for individuals working at the SEC at this time.

The SEC already had few delays about this decision but it's important to note that the series of possible extensions permitted by law is capped at 240 days from the initial submission date in June 2016. So, March 11 should bring the answer, and what do you think it will be? At the moment, Fairlay market gives this approval only a 23% chance.

What is the odds? I never used your site before, I can't understand the situation, why there are 3 odds in On, and the other 3 in off? You are different from general betting exchange like betfair.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

How likely is Bitcoin ETF approval? Friday will bring the answer but what will it be?

March 11 has for weeks been in the focus of Bitcoin community as the US Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) decision on the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) is scheduled for that day. Though, because the 11th falls on a Saturday, that decision will likely come tomorrow. But what will it be, and will Bitcoin ETF be approved?

As CoinTelegraph wrote yesterday, around 72 percent of the public is in favor of the Bitcoin ETF approval so far. The other 28 percent have cited some of the issues the Bitcoin network is dealing with, but in consideration of the state of the Bitcoin network as of current, the problems mentioned by ETF opposers aren’t necessarily urgent issues which the SEC should consider for the ETF approval.

Will a Bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC?
Predict at: https://fairlay.com/market/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-by-the-sec-by-may-1-2017/.

One of the issues that were frequently brought up by the ETF opposers was the fear of hard fork. Some of the public comments included concerns over the execution of a potential hard fork and the occurrence of a split chain. A split in the chain could lead to the creation of another fork of bitcoin and essentially create two currencies, the 28 percent of the public stated that a Bitcoin ETF isn’t ready to be introduced to the public.

Still, at Fairlay market Bitcoin ETF Approaval is given an only 41 percent at the moment, as traders are already preparing for the storm. So, the SEC doesn’t benefit from the approval of the Bitcoin ETF as the SEC isn’t incentivized for the performance of the ETF but it will surely change the Bitcoin price a lot. In which way, up or down?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

2017 Nobel Peace Prize Winner: Pope Francis, American Civil Liberties Union, White Helmets, or someone else?

There were plenty of different reactions after the 2016 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the President of Colombia Juan Manuel Santos, as the announcement was a surprise since before that the national referendum on October 2 was narrowly defeated. What kind of reactions are we going to have after 2017 Nobel Peace Prize announcement?

It is not a surprise that Pope Francis is once again amongst the biggest favorites, and media will once again write that he should win it as the Pope has framed all the current issues in moral terms, asking for all of the world’s people and governments to reflect upon and live out their moral responsibilities to creation and the vulnerable people of the world.  

But, who else could take the Nobel Peace Prize this year? Currently, American Civil Liberties Union is a popular choice as their stated mission "to defend and preserve the individual rights and liberties guaranteed to every person in this country by the Constitution and laws of the United States" is a popular one against the policies of Donald Trump.



2017 Nobel Peace Prize Winner
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-nobel-peace-prize-winner/.

The White Helmets, a volunteer civil defense organization that currently operates in parts of rebel-controlled Syria, are once again amongst the favorites as they still wake up every day to save the lives others are trying so hard to take. These volunteer rescue workers have saved 85,228 lives in Syria, though they are every day under the constant attack.

As for the world leaders, Angela Merkel is again ranked high, while Nobel Peace Prize could posthumously be awarded to Jo Cox who, among the others things, supported the White Helmets in the last years of her life. Raif Badawi, a Saudi writer, dissident and activist, as well as the creator of the website Free Saudi Liberals, is also amongst the favorites.

Above named are among the six ranked highest at the this year Nobel Peace Prize Fairlay market, but option ‘Other’ could once again be popular as some think that persons like Amal Clooney, Sadiq Khan, or Michelle Obama could win it.  So, who is your favorite, and who will get us plenty of different reactions after the announcement is made in October?