No, I think that we all know better than one of the world's most successful and experienced investors.

Exactly. Bitcoins did not change. THE MARKET changed.

The technology underlying the asset does not affect the emotions of traders. We are now in a bear market, which means the trend is DOWN. If someone disagrees with this, I would like to hear what exactly changed between April 15 and today that is getting people so pumped again. I can't see any reasons other than short-term memory and greed.

No. i.e. the market changed fundamentally following the events of Apr 10. We are not in a bull market any more. And just like when we were in a bull market, any dips were temporary and quickly rebounded (e.g. Valentine's Day), in the same way when we are in a bear market any rallies are temporary and bound to collapse. You can still make money ("bulls make money, bears make money ...") but you need to be able to read the situation and adapt to changes as they occur, and failure to do so due to stubbornness will fuck you up ("... and pigs get slaughtered").

In other words, there is nothing wrong with being a bull or being a bear. But it's not some tribal affiliation that you need to keep for life. Truly successful investors know when to change their mind and switch between the two.

"Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."
― Warren Buffett

I used to be a huge bull up until the crash. I am no longer trading due to personal circumstances. But in general, I think that to be successful you have to know when to adjust your views. Those who are stubborn get burned.

This is how I see it:

not good ...

Some thoughts:

Bitcoin is very different from other markets in that it never sleeps. Someone that slept through the crash would wake up to find his assets have halved in price; someone that slept through the cooldown announcement would not have had time to move their funds. When we picture the typical hotshot Wall St broker who works 90 hours a week and does coke on the job, even they sleep. With Bitcoin, you snooze, you lose. For the first time (maybe ever) we actually have an interesting situation: the Bitcoin market (i.e. Mt.Gox) is about to "open", following some serious events in the past 24 hours, and some movement in other markets. The opening bell will ring, and then nobody knows what is going to happen. This is pretty much how all markets work. With Bitcoin, we have always enjoyed the luxury of "temporal liquidity", i.e. there is never any spring-loading of big sales in anticipation of a certain time point. Right now this is exactly what is happening. Everyone in the Bitcoin world is planning their move right now (even if that move is to do nothing at all).

So what will happen to the price? For sure it will move violently in all directions. There is money to be made over the next 48 hours, if that is what you are in the game for. Beyond sentiment, speculation and conspiracy theories, I believe there are two opposing theories to consider:

1) UP: Those who were holding Bitcoin and wanted to sell could have easily moved their Bitcoin to another exchange and done so (assuming it's less than their nominal withdrawal limit). And this is exactly what happened, with the price now somewhere around 50-70 USD. However, those who were holding fiat and wanted to buy are still holding fiat and still want to buy. This suggests that buying pressure will outweigh selling pressure significantly after the "opening bell".

2) DOWN: With the price at other exchanges now half of that at Mt.Gox there is bound to be a lot of "pre-meditated panic selling". This would be coming from (a) traders who hold too much Bitcoin to withdraw to another exchange ("big traders" with six-figure amounts), (b) traders who are not aware of other exchanges, or for whatever reason won't use them (e.g. newbies, your mom who took out a loan to buy BTC, etc.), (c) traders who already withdrew their daily limit from Mt.Gox and want to sell at as high a price as possible between 123 USD and the current market aggregate. This suggests that A LOT of market sells will be made at 02:00 UTC, driving the price way down, even if for just a brief period. Because the orders are market orders, there is no opportunity to react to the market. These sells will erupt like one huge market price dump, and inevitably push the price way below the current market aggregate.

What is my pure speculation on this? I think it will go as low as 20, before rebounding to 100+. I really believe the market dump is going to be HUGE, and I think the buys will be more calculated. A lot of people will probably wait to see how low it goes before trying to get back in.

Thoughts?

bookmarked for luls

If you put in a market sell and the price has gone too low then don't try to cancel. Simply withdraw to your wallet (with tx fee). The withdrawal engine is different from the trading engine apparently.

Just because millionaires don't spend their day talking shit on the speculation boards doesn't mean they are not investing in Bitcoin.

It's not a glitch. Use the +/- buttons on the top right of the depth chart to zoom in/out. The red line means the ask wall is higher than the scale at that zoom level.

Just a small thing: the 3 day and 7 day periods are in the options now, but gives an error when I try to enable.

Once again, thanks for implementing the feature

Second that. Great site and great philosophy wrt treating your customers.


Thank you, I appreciate the gesture!

Are you printing/giving out any more of these? I got one with my Bitmit order the other day, they look great and I would love to give some out to friends.

It's a little bit better. Or maybe I am just used to it, I can't tell.


I love the cool-off period! Seriously. If there is any additional request I would make is to add 3 days and 1 week options.

It's pretty simple.

1) I give you a bunch of Bitcoin addresses (some of them have A LOT of transactions)
2) You need to generate a text file for each address that contains several columns with the following layout:

[time/date] [transaction amount] [balance] [mt.gox USD/BTC price at time of transaction]
[time/date] [transaction amount] [balance] [mt.gox USD/BTC price at time of transaction]
[time/date] [transaction amount] [balance] [mt.gox USD/BTC price at time of transaction]
 ...

Basically, I want to plot my net worth over the past year or so. I can do the plotting myself, but getting the data is proving tedious. As I said there are a lot of transactions (thousands) and blockchain and other websites won't display the full history. You have to dig it up and it has to include every single transaction.

Name your price!

Probably the main issue is how long is going to take to get 100 takers?

Why are you selling it anyway? 1 GHs should be giving you around $600 per month, no?

Generally I would say it's a free market, if you don't like it, take your business somewhere else.

But what pisses me off is that they make insane profits, which is a trivial calculate (daily volume * 0.4%), so they must be FUCKING LOADED. There is almost nothing in the computer industry that this kind of money cannot buy, so why the fuck can't they just hire some competent programmers/database experts?

It really makes me sick to think that when the Coinlab deal gets done, Mt.Gox will be a huge public embarrassment to Bitcoin in the inevitable media spotlight.

Wasn't Bitfloor hacked?

The one thing that we do know is that Mt.Gox security is excellent. I trade almost daily so I cannot afford to keep my funds in a paper wallet.

The history board is a different shade of blue to the table (it's a sort of dark aquamarine, ~20/70/128). If you can make the history board black or light grey, it would alleviate the issue with the red letters. The rest of the table and color scheme is fine, although I am somewhat surprised that you would choose blue as your main color. Research has shown that color has a huge effect on emotions, and considering that your main source of revenue is people staring at your color scheme for hours on end, I would guess this effect is accentuated tenfold. Would a bright, cheerful color scheme not be better suited to motivate risktaking?

78 USD