As a technical experiment, that's fine.  For timing speculation, okay.  In the competition for the natural monopoly of private liquidity, 0.00001% more risk on one side than on the other pre-determines the outcome.

Take an example of XMR. If David Latapie, fluffypony or any of the others was exposed as a scammer, I would race to the exits, and so would everybody. Why? Because they knew I would, and wanted to exit first. The value of the coin would be destroyed.

If this would not happen with BBR, well, it talks more about the great divide concerning what kind of people invest in that vs. in Monero, and to each his own...

...

I had more than half the equivalent of the US National Debt under contract for advisory. I think I saw things no analysts has ever dreamed of no less understood.

...

I have written that written publicly that first PhiBro silver manipulation took place in 1993. They client was Warren Buffet. The CFTC went to PhiBro demanding to know who they were buying silver for. They refused to give up Buffet’s name. The CFTC would have thrown anyone else in jail and out of business. They are owned by the big players and corrupt as hell right to the core. The CFTC simply said ok, no name, then exist the trade.



They desperately tried to get me to join the second silver manipulation with Buffet. I have written stating publicly that PhiBro’s brokers walked across the COMEX pit and showed my floor brokers Buffet’s orders and told me to join. They knew I would never trust these people for how would I know I was not the patsy to buy and they would use a another seller. I would never join them. Hence, PhiBro showed me the orders to convince me to join.



I then reported to our clients “they are back” knowing it was Buffet and PhiBro for a second time. They all got pissed-off at me even though I never mentioned names. The buying of silver was done in London. Therefore, they moved silver out of COMEX warehouses in USA and shipped to London to pretend there was a shortage to justify the manipulation. The Wall Street Journal assisted in the rally.

The manipulators with steering the buffet buying in London to avoid the 1993 problem with the CFTC. This is why AIG trading arm also set up in London. Buying silver in London justified moving it from the NY COMEX and this allowed them to get the manipulation going. COMEX supplies were reported in isolation. Moving the silver to London created the false image of a shortage to justify thye higher prices. The Wall Street Journal was used to plant the story. On September 30th 1997 the stories played headlines – “Silver Prices Hit Six-Month High On Steadily Declining Reserves, By  PALLAVI GOGOI AP-Dow Jones News Service Updated Sept. 30, 1997 12:01 a.m. ET NEW YORK — Silver futures surged to a six-month high at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, a move analysts said was triggered by steadily declining warehouse stocks. The rally was boosted by preplaced purchase orders around the $5-per-ounce level…” This was the news created for the manipulation that was constantly played out in the newspapers. The Wall Street Journal again reported on November 17, 1997, “Silver Futures Prices Leap On Hints of Tight Supplies”, and again on December 4, 1997 the Wall Street Journal from London reported “Silver Surges on Strength In Supply-Demand Status By NEIL BEHRMANN Special to The Wall Street Journal Updated Dec. 5, 1997 12:01 a.m. ET LONDON — Gold may be in the doghouse, but silver is soaring like a bird”. The reporting of shortages continued to fuel the rally. The Wall Street Journal reported again December 24, 1997 for the manipulators “Silver Futures Advance As Inventories Plunge”

The interesting point is the manipulators know that if the rally the metals, the retail goldbugs rush in and buy. They then routinely turn around and sell to them at the top and the markets crash. This standard procedure and the goldbugs buy the high every single time.

The “cluib” was pissed-off that I would not join and warned they were back manipulating silver. The got a journalist from the Wall Street Journal to try to discredit me. They told him I was short silver and trying to talk it down. The journalist accused me of this nonsense and we argued on the phone. It got quite heated and frankly I was not retail so could care less what they printed. My clients were the real deal who all knew the truth about journalism. In fact, they did not ever want me to give interviews about market forecasting to the press for their view was hey – we pay for that info.

Nevertheless, the journalist kept arrogantly taunting me and said if silver was being manipulated, then give him the name so I said fine, go ahead, let me see you print it, knowing he never would. The name I gave him was Warren Buffett. He laughed. Told me everyone knew Buffett did not trade commodities I told him that was how much he knew.

The Wall Street Journal published the article. The London newspapers were fed stories by the “Club” that I was now the largest silver trader in the world. This became all a joke to me. It demonstrated how bad the press really was. They were the pawns of the manipulators and probably didn’t even know it.

The mistake made by the “Club” by turning out the press against me, was they actually created such a worldwide story that silver was being manipulated the CFTC was forced to call me – it was public now and they had no choice. They knew I was not the source of the manipulation. Even the CFTC could look at positions and knew I was not the biggest player in silver. The CFTC then asked me, where was the manipulation taking place? I told them it was in London, out of their jurisdiction. The CFTC told me that they could pick up the phone and investigate London. I told them that they had to make that clear decision. I hung up. Never did I expect that they would really do anything. Yet, they never asked me who because the question was jurisdiction.

A few hours later, my phone rang. It was a good source in London who also was helping to monitor the “Club” actions. He told me that the Bank of England had called an immediate meeting of all silver brokers in London in the morning. I was shocked. The CFTC had made the call. But then again, I had given them no names so perhaps in their mind, this was fair game.

Within the hour, Warren Buffett made a press announcement. He admitted he had purchased $1 billion worth of silver, in London . He denied he was “manipulating” the market. Claimed the silver was a long – term investment. Everyone was shocked that Buffett was suddenly exposed as a commodity trader after all. The very next day the Wall Street Journal called me. The writer asked – “How did you know?” I told him it was my job to know! Silver thereafter declined and made new lows going into 1999. So much for Buffet’s long-term investment since he sold out.

When one trader from New York joined our firm, he called Goldman Sachs to ask about us. He has publicly stated on the record that their response was they had butted head with me many times but I usually won.

Exposing the silver manipulation trying to turn the press against me was a huge mistake. The CFTC would have never called the Bank of England just because I reported the manipulation to our clients. That was private. Exposing the issue in the press forced them to respond. My brokers on the floor were Emerald Trading. I routinely traded AGAINST the manipulators and defeated them many times. Just as the goldbugs do not like me, neither do the manipulators and it far too often seemed to coincide when they were trying to goose the markets UP – not down. Contrary to the bullshit, they need people to BUY the metals to create a pool of longs to bury. They are NOT interested in forcing a metal down to compel people to sell. That is not very profitable for they want the emotional traders who buy highs. Of course the goldbugs will say I am wrong but have never been in the same circles and some of them I question if they are not the people paid on the side by the manipulators.

There have been major manipulations of markets such as rhodium and then there was the manipulation of Platinum. I had recorded tapes and tons of documents on every manipulation. This was all seized by the court and I stood up instructing the court that these tapes Alan Cohen was demanding involved criminal activity on the part of the banks. I had it all for years. Alan Cohen then was made a board member of Goldman Sachs yet still remained as the court appointed person to run Princeton Economics. That is totally illegal and a conflict of interest. Law does not matter in New York City. (see Transcripts below).

To say I will not admit markets are manipulated is absurd. To claim they are always manipulated is impossible. Yet the real paradox is when they rally, they never seem to be manipulated. That is always real. They become manipulated only when they decline.

Not even the central banks can manipulate everything. Sure people try. But not everything. They target one market and go after that. The central banks have been trying to manage the economy to eliminate recessions. They have never succeeded even once. The central bankers know this is a confidence game just as the market manipulators. You NEED the public to move a trend. They cannot do it alone. If they were all-powerful, then Bretton Woods would never have collapsed.

There is a huge difference from a short-term manipulation within the trend like the Buffet silver move, but the market still fell to new lows with all the movement of silver and buying $1 billion in a tiny market. Where is the PROOF of systemic manipulation. It is nonsense.

It's ok to admit you're wrong, and you don't even have to call people socialist, tree hugging malthusians when you do, just fyi.

Your Knowledge will not...

1LohorisJi...

As a reply I accept your post containing a graph how terrible fit the log-logistic model actually is and how mistaken trading signals it would have given in the past.

I also see much confirmation that Bitcoin is not being adopted by most of those who hear about it

The ratio today is 115.1% of the $16 trillion GDP. In the year 2000, just before the market cracked in the dot-com bubble, the market capitalization was 183% times the GDP, according to a chart published recently.

And in 2007, just as the housing credit bubble was bursting, the ratio was 135% times the GDP. These are all times when the stock market looks overvalued.

42% of Americans Know What Bitcoin is

According to a new Bloomberg poll, 42% of Americans know that bitcoin is a digital currency.

However, the majority of the US residents quizzed still don’t know what bitcoin actually is.

Those who were familiar with the cryptocurrency said they were still unsure what to make of it. In fact, many who were asked had questions for the pollsters too.

Those that do know, don’t know much

Of the people who had heard of bitcoin, some were hesitant to use it themselves, either in a business or personal capacity.

Olga Ruff, a 62-year-old businesswoman, said she was unlikely to start accepting bitcoin in her small jewellery shop. “What use would it be for me?” she said, adding: “I’m not sure what the value of it is, and what I’d be able to exchange it for.”

Jeremy Labadie, an internet security specialist, said he would have to consider his options further before making a purchase: “I don’t necessarily know if it’s something I would think about using.”

However Labadie also admitted that he had considered buying some bitcoins as a long-term investment.

Other respondents said they heard about bitcoin through mainstream news coverage. In turn, this had given them an idea of the currency’s drawbacks as well as bitcoin-related scams and crimes.

...

Bitcoin: Xbox game or iPhone app?

More than 1,000 people took part in the poll and some answers were rather amusing.

A total of 46% said they do not know what bitcoin is. Suprisingly, 6% of participants thought bitcoin was an Xbox game, while another 6% were convinced it was an iOS app on the iPhone.

Unsurprisingly, the poll found that people under the age of 35 were more likely to know a thing or two about bitcoin.

The average Bitcoin user used to be a non-religious male with libertarian/anarcho-capitalist leanings, 31.2 years of age, with a job and a full-time relationship, according to a self-selecting community survey done last year by tech/economics blog Simulacrum.

...

Hispanic-Americans were by far the ethnic group most likely to say they would consider using Bitcoin themselves: 23% answered they were “very likely,” compared to 9% from African-Americans and “others” and just 5% from whites.

Though it may be presumptuous to draw definitive conclusions from the survey, a clear inference about the results may be that Hispanic-Americans have begun to pick up on Bitcoin’s exciting implication for the remittance market: a low-cost method for diaspora members to send money back home.

Bitcoin-based remittance companies have been exploding especially in Africa, where it’s been estimated that people are losing US$1.8 billion annually to remittance fees.

More we know bitcoin, the less we trust it: Poll

Nearly half of all Americans know what bitcoin is but most don't trust the virtual currency, according to a new survey.

Just 13 percent of all respondents to a Harris Interactive poll said they prefer bitcoin over gold. Bitcoin has been embroiled in a series of controversies over the past few months, including inappropriate use and the shuttering of its highest-profile exchange.

Those negative headlines have taken their toll: The survey, conducted on behalf of financial innovation platform Yodlee, found that the more people know about bitcoin the less they trust it. People in the more tech-savvy regions in the West were better acquainted with bitcoin than those in other regions, but only 7 percent said they would invest in it over gold.

The cryptocurrency's biggest fan base: Men in the 18-to-34 age group, 22 percent of whom said they would choose bitcoin over gold.

I also see much confirmation that Bitcoin is not being adopted by most of those who hear about it

The ratio today is 115.1% of the $16 trillion GDP. In the year 2000, just before the market cracked in the dot-com bubble, the market capitalization was 183% times the GDP, according to a chart published recently.

And in 2007, just as the housing credit bubble was bursting, the ratio was 135% times the GDP. These are all times when the stock market looks overvalued.

42% of Americans Know What Bitcoin is

According to a new Bloomberg poll, 42% of Americans know that bitcoin is a digital currency.

However, the majority of the US residents quizzed still don’t know what bitcoin actually is.

Those who were familiar with the cryptocurrency said they were still unsure what to make of it. In fact, many who were asked had questions for the pollsters too.

Those that do know, don’t know much

Of the people who had heard of bitcoin, some were hesitant to use it themselves, either in a business or personal capacity.

Olga Ruff, a 62-year-old businesswoman, said she was unlikely to start accepting bitcoin in her small jewellery shop. “What use would it be for me?” she said, adding: “I’m not sure what the value of it is, and what I’d be able to exchange it for.”

Jeremy Labadie, an internet security specialist, said he would have to consider his options further before making a purchase: “I don’t necessarily know if it’s something I would think about using.”

However Labadie also admitted that he had considered buying some bitcoins as a long-term investment.

Other respondents said they heard about bitcoin through mainstream news coverage. In turn, this had given them an idea of the currency’s drawbacks as well as bitcoin-related scams and crimes.

...

Bitcoin: Xbox game or iPhone app?

More than 1,000 people took part in the poll and some answers were rather amusing.

A total of 46% said they do not know what bitcoin is. Suprisingly, 6% of participants thought bitcoin was an Xbox game, while another 6% were convinced it was an iOS app on the iPhone.

Unsurprisingly, the poll found that people under the age of 35 were more likely to know a thing or two about bitcoin.

The average Bitcoin user used to be a non-religious male with libertarian/anarcho-capitalist leanings, 31.2 years of age, with a job and a full-time relationship, according to a self-selecting community survey done last year by tech/economics blog Simulacrum.

...

Hispanic-Americans were by far the ethnic group most likely to say they would consider using Bitcoin themselves: 23% answered they were “very likely,” compared to 9% from African-Americans and “others” and just 5% from whites.

Though it may be presumptuous to draw definitive conclusions from the survey, a clear inference about the results may be that Hispanic-Americans have begun to pick up on Bitcoin’s exciting implication for the remittance market: a low-cost method for diaspora members to send money back home.

Bitcoin-based remittance companies have been exploding especially in Africa, where it’s been estimated that people are losing US$1.8 billion annually to remittance fees.

More we know bitcoin, the less we trust it: Poll

Nearly half of all Americans know what bitcoin is but most don't trust the virtual currency, according to a new survey.

Just 13 percent of all respondents to a Harris Interactive poll said they prefer bitcoin over gold. Bitcoin has been embroiled in a series of controversies over the past few months, including inappropriate use and the shuttering of its highest-profile exchange.

Those negative headlines have taken their toll: The survey, conducted on behalf of financial innovation platform Yodlee, found that the more people know about bitcoin the less they trust it. People in the more tech-savvy regions in the West were better acquainted with bitcoin than those in other regions, but only 7 percent said they would invest in it over gold.

The cryptocurrency's biggest fan base: Men in the 18-to-34 age group, 22 percent of whom said they would choose bitcoin over gold.

The burden of proof is on the "fit" that fits the data less (despite being more complicated), i.e. yours.


(I seriously think you are wasting your precious time, trying to argue with me about statistics. Tell me when I do likewise re: your strong point.)

Thank You Peter R! I will add this model to the toolkit when I try to explain to people why sometimes (2013) it rises 100x and sometimes (2012) hardly at all. Randomness.

It is a calculated and intentional economic inefficiency, which is deemed worth the cost, in order that the CCP plenum may avoid getting their heads lopped by people with nothing to lose because all of their progeny died of autoimmune reaction to inhaling coal ash.
The poly solar business will die, but only when a sufficient amount of economically productive, greener generation cap is available to provide an reasonable level of insurance against such an outcome, or the reins of power are seized by a new dynasty with post-urban social engineering agenda.

Something about the copy always makes my mind rebel if I try to read it.  It's like trying to look into your foveal blind spot.

I want to buy future reserve currency, stack it high, and hold it long.  Anything else is just a distraction.

If you are not guarding your independence as a human with extreme paranoid caution, then you are almost certainly already a pawn.

Not sure if really poor analogy or just spewing falsehoods?

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/08/08/3468974/china-solar-capacity-booming/

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2012/07/27/china-leads-the-world-in-renewable-energy-investment/

China has a terrible pollution problem, and they are taking some strides at least to wrangle the problem in the longterm. They also manage to import so many solar panels into the USA that many manufacturers here are crying "uncle", despite installing more PV capacity than the USA has in their entire history in the same year. Not sure how you figure solar "didn't pan out" for them.

AnonyMint you think there will be a one world government who is just dictating the supply of money of all other countries, now that is nuts and something for the tinfoil hat party.

Some governments will soon buy in and start mining BTC themselves and the whole fiat pyramid falls down.

There was already one country deciding to adopt Bitcoin, brick after brick is falling.

1. Plant Bitcoin to condition the people to like "digital currencies", garnish the glossy-eyed devotion of the high-tech libertarians, and to give governments an excuse to make it illegal and create draconian replacements in their jurisdictions.

Bitcoin is already the perfect gov coin, because it helps with transparency of the government to the people.

I am also very confident Bitcoin will always be the business and gov coin, because with this public ledger everyone who wants to have a good reputation must be as open as possible about the intentions.

imagine one day that you cannot go to ex. blockchain.info and search a Bitcoin transaction?

Quite possibly.  I don t think one has to invoke obscure conspiracies for that.  Financial privacy is already so cumbersome and costly to achieve that most people will rather just give up on it.  It is like trying to pay for rent and groceries with gold dust in order to avoid dealing with "evil fiat".

You obviously hope that Monero or some other cryptocoin will allow people to retain financial privacy without joining some savage tribe and subsisting on berries and monkey meat.  Good luck with that.  Need I tell you that I am rather skeptical about the idea?

Bitcoin is centrally produced for mining (Ghash.io + any other pool have > 50% of hashrate) and protocol development.

With the coming ETFs and other offchain entities, I posit it will soon by top-controlled for investment and transactions too.

Raise your hindquarters in the air for some Butthurtcoin.

Quite possibly.  I don t think one has to invoke obscure conspiracies for that.  Financial privacy is already so cumbersome and costly to achieve that most people will rather just give up on it.  It is like trying to pay for rent and groceries with gold dust in order to avoid dealing with "evil fiat".

You obviously hope that Monero or some other cryptocoin will allow people to retain financial privacy without joining some savage tribe and subsisting on berries and monkey meat.  Good luck with that.  Need I tell you that I am rather skeptical about the idea?

Bitcoin is centrally produced for mining (Ghash.io + any other pool have > 50% of hashrate) and protocol development.

With the coming ETFs and other offchain entities, I posit it will soon by top-controlled for investment and transactions too.

Raise your hindquarters in the air for some Butthurtcoin.

QQ tokens had limited use cases and were centralized, issued by QQ company. How do you squelch crypto 2.0? Throw people in jail for using it? Ban Internet? These are possibilities, of course. It's all high risk investment and wild west. We'll see how it unfolds.

Please re-iterate your actionable plan for people who don't have a particular skillset and aren't particularly wealthy but belong to the middle class and are fortunate enough to read you.