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1  Local / Announcements (Deutsch) / [ANN] XAYA (CHI) - Blockchain Gaming - 100% dezentral und autonom on: July 28, 2023, 12:14:50 PM
Alter Thread: [ANN][ICO] ⭐ XAYA - Echtes Blockchain Gaming - Mainnet live




Xaya ist ein Open-Source-Projekt, das von Autonomous Worlds gepflegt wird. Die Geschichte von Xaya geht zurück bis in Jahr 2011, als einige jetzige Teammitglieder sich im Namecoin-Projekt involvierten und in 2013 dann auch freiwillige Leiter dieses Projekts wurden. Namecoin wurde später geforked und das weltweit erste Blockchain Spiel HUNTERCOIN wurde geboren.

Im Jahr 2014 wurde Huntercoin als komplett dezentrale und autonome Spielwelt veröffentlicht, allerdings nur als Hobby/Experiment und auf ein Jahr begrenzt. Das Spiel fand schnell eine große Anhängerschaft und läuft noch heute.

Das Xaya-Team hat durch Huntercoin viel gelernt und neue Erkenntnisse gewonnen und im Zuge dessen einige Forschungspapiere über dezentralisierte Blockchain Spiele verfasst.

Mit diesem ganzen Wissen wurde im Oktober 2016 das Chimaera Projekt gestartet, welches dann Anfang 2018 in Xaya umbenannt wurde. Im 2. Quartal 2018 ging die Xaya Blockchain live.


INFORMATIONEN ÜBER DEN COIN



DIE SPIELE




LOGBUCH

SOCCERVERSE

Fussball Manager
- Zur Zeit in Beta4, letzte Beta5 in Q4/2023, was auch gleichzeitig light release ist; full release Q2/2024
- Beta ist für jeden zugänglich und berechtigt für einen Airdrop fürs full game, starter pack für Beta: FREE PACK
- Läuft auf Polygon mit WCHI
- SOCCERVERSE DISCORD


TAURION

MMO (á la Eve Online etc.)
- 3 Alphas wurden komplettiert, Beta nächster Schritt, aber zur Zeit on hold, da Soccerverse Vorrang hat
- Läuft auf Xaya Blockhain mit CHI


TREATFIGHTER

Collectible Game
- Full release am 14.07.2023
- Läuft auf Xaya Blockhain mit CHI


XAYASHIPS

Schiffe versenken
- Mehr eine Tech Demo, aber spielbar, allerdings zur Zeit nicht play-to-earn
- Läuft auf Xaya Blockhain mit CHI basierend auf der GAME CHANNEL TECHNOLOGY, vergleichbar mit LN bei BTC



Texte/Bilder sind entnommen von: https://xaya.io/
2  Economy / Reputation / User SmokerFace - Recycling posts for sig campaign, new way of cheating ? on: February 25, 2021, 10:38:38 AM
I read this post today and thought, hmm, I already read this post once in this thread, so was thinking about plagiarism:

I never faced any issues, and it's perfect in terms of betting. There's a lot of fun of your choice; the remarkable thing is they don't apply a fee for withdrawals, and they're fast compare to the other bets sites. The only thing I dislike is charging a high phone bill when you call customer support with a Canadian phone. Had a pleasant little surprise on my phone bill.


archived

But it's not plagiarism. What this user actually does is to delete his old posts in a thread and then reposting them some days later to get paid again for them. Basically the same post was made on February 10th already, but was deleted (by him (?)):

Quote
Thanks for the tutorial; for me, all the British bookies are the best. I also consider skybet, which is best in gambling games. I never face any issues, and it's perfect in terms of betting. There's a lot of fun of your choice; the remarkable thing is they don't apply a fee for withdrawals, and they're fast compare to the other bets sites. The only thing I dislike is charging a high phone bill when you call customer support with a Canadian phone. Had a pleasant little surprise on my phone bill.

See: View all unedited (or deleted) posts in How to adjust and work with the bet365 live streaming



I checked the post history of this user and just today he made 15 posts in 6:46 minutes, amazing Grin

I randomly checked another post and here is what I got:

This post he made as well today:

Bitcoin can not end any currency, since bitcoin is as yet very little famous among us. Half of the world doesn't know what actually bitcoins is and those who know about bitcoin accuse it of a scam. Also, how would we purchase bitcoin if the cash gets end?. We won't be able to exchange. For me, dollars or any cash ought not to end. It might make a few issues and hurt the bitcoin itself as well.


archived

Posted already on Dec 26th: https://loyce.club/archive/posts/5593/55934821.html
Deleted and reposted on Feb 10th: https://loyce.club/archive/posts/5631/56313484.html
Deleted and reposted on Feb 17th: https://loyce.club/archive/posts/5636/56368162.html
And then today reposted again, after deleting the post from Feb 17th.
3  Economy / Gambling discussion / [Discussion & Betting] Eurovision Song Contest 2021 on: December 29, 2020, 12:42:49 PM

You can never be too early when it comes to the Eurovision Song Contest and Albania was the first country to announce/publish their entry some days ago, so time for a 2021 thread. There can be found great value in the early stages, but you can also be dead wrong. The 2020 edition was cancelled for known reasons, it looks like the 2021 edition will take place no matter what, since all artists will (have to) video tape their performance and if they are not able to travel to Rotterdam, this video will be shown. There are some other special rules for this one, but shouldn't matter for the outcome. It is allowed to have the same artist as planned for 2020, but not the same song. 22 countries chose to do so, which is about 50%.

This years Eurovision Song Contest will be held from 18th to 22nd May in the Ahoy-Arena in Rotterdam, Netherlands.

The Dates

18th May 2021: Semifinal 1
20th May 2021: Semifinal 2
22nd May 2021: The Final

A total of 41 countries will participate this year. Bulgaria and Ukraine will come back for this years edition, while Montenegro and Hungary won't participate this year.

Semifinal 1

CountryArtistSongYoutube
________________________________________________________________________________________________
AustraliaMontaigneTechnicolourClick me
BelarusDSQDSQ
IrelandLesley RoyMapsClick me
LithuaniaThe RoopDiscotequeClick me
North MacedoniaVasilHere I standClick me
RussiaManizhaRussian WomanClick me
SloveniaAna SokličAmenClick me
SwedenTusseVoicesClick me
AzerbaijanSamira EfendiMata HariClick me
BelgiumHooverphonicThe Wrong PlaceClick me
CroatiaAlbinaTick-TockClick me
CyprusElena TsagrinouEl diabloClick me
IsraelEden AleneSet me FreeClick me
MaltaDestiny ChukunyereJe Me CasseClick me
NorwayTIXFallen AngelClick me
RomaniaRoxenAmnesiaClick me
UkraineGo_AShumClick me

Semifinal 2

CountryArtistSongYoutube
________________________________________________________________________________________________
AustriaVincent BuenoAmenClick me
Czech RepublicBenny CristoOmagaClick me
EstoniaUku SuvisteThe Lucky OneClick me
GreeceStefaniaLast DanceClick me
IcelandDaði og Gagnamagnið10 YearsClick me
MoldovaNatalia GordienkoSugarClick me
PolandRAFAŁThe RideClick me
San MarinoSenhitAdrenalinaClick me
SerbiaHurricaneLoco LocoClick me
AlbaniaAnxhela PeristeriKarmaClick me
ArmeniaWill not participateWill not participate
BulgariaVictoriaGrowing Up is Getting OldClick me
DenmarkFyr & FlammeØve os på hinandenClick me
FinlandBlind ChannelDark SideClick me
GeorgiaTornike KipianiYouClick me
LatviaSamanta TinaThe Moon is RisingClick me
PortugalThe Black MambaLove Is on My SideClick me
SwitzerlandGjon's TearsTout l’UniversClick me


The Final

France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK are seeded for the final as the Big Five, Netherlands as hosts.

CountryArtistSongYoutube
________________________________________________________________________________________________
FranceBarbara PraviVoilàClick me
GermanyJendrikI Don't Feel HateClick me
ItalyMåneskinZitti e buoniClick me
NetherlandsJeangu MacrooyBirth Of A New AgeClick me
SpainBlas CantoVoy a quedarmeClick me
United KingdomJames NewmanEmbersClick me



Betting Odds

Will add a screenshot later, for now there is just a tiny market at Betfair.



Last years thread was very nice with lots of good discussions and posts. Hope to see some familiar faces in this thread, but fresh faces are welcome as well of course. Happy discussing and good luck with your bets Smiley

I made this thread self-moderated. I don't plan to delete a lot of posts, but rather let a fruitful discussion unfold. If it gets too spammy, I will delete posts though. So just stay on topic, share your thoughts, discuss the entries and don't spam useless stuff.
4  Economy / Gambling discussion / [Darts] 2021 PDC World Darts Championship on: December 14, 2020, 03:32:44 PM

I don't follow Darts during the year, but over Christmas it's always nice to watch the madness (spectator wise) and the drama (player wise). The madness will be a bit less this year though unfortunately - there will be fans in the Alexandra Palace, but only 1,000 and they are not allowed to wear costumes or sing. I am curious how this will work, since afaik they are allowed to drink alcohol and the more alcohol you drink, the more likely you are to sing or do other weird things Cheesy

But anyway, as said I am no expert and I usually follow the first days without placing bets. After having seen all players and their performances, I might place a bet here and there, if I see a good one. Maybe we have some dart pros here, who can share their picks or are just interested in discussing things. 

The first matches will start tomorrow and we will already get to see the reigning Champion Peter Wright, who will play his secound round match against West or Gilitwala. Here are the outright odds, taken from William Hill, with MvG being the favourite as always:


Source: https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/darts

The draw can be found here. Odds for matches and side markets should be available in basically every bookmaker.

Happy discussing Smiley
5  Economy / Gambling discussion / 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar - UEFA Qualifiers on: December 07, 2020, 10:32:11 PM

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA)#/media/File:UEFA_Euro_2016_qualifying.png

The Groups

The draw for the UEFA World Cup Qualifying stages took place in Zurich today. These are the groups:


Source: https://editorial.uefa.com/resources/0264-1108c702e548-758110ebe57c-1000/draw_result_sheet.pdf



The Format

The 10 group winners will have secured their ticket to the "Winter World Cup" in Qatar in 2022. Second placed teams will advance to the Play-Offs and fight for three additional spots. The Play-Offs will feature 12 teams with Semi-Finals and Finals. Now one could wonder: There are only 10 groups and thus only 10 second placed teams, how can 12 teams participate ? This is where the very well liked UEFA Nations League will come into play, because the two best UNL group winners, who finished outside top two in their respective WC Qualifying group from above, will get these spots (source). And these are the group winners and their overall UNL rankings, which is important as well:


Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA)

So lets say FRA & BEL Top2 in their groups, but ITA only finishes third in theirs. Then Italy would still go into PO via the UNL rule. Now it's very unlikely for the big nations to finish outside Top2, but for the smaller nations, this is a nice safety net and could also lead to nice betting opportunities. If we look at Group E and assume Belgium finishes Top2, then you have either Wales (and/or maybe Czech Republic) already having secured their PO spot and probably not caring about their last match(es) - if FRA/ITA/ESP finish Top2 in their groups as well.


Source: https://editorial.uefa.com/resources/0264-1108c702e548-758110ebe57c-1000/draw_result_sheet.pdf



The Schedule


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA)

Still some days to go, lets see, if around that time there will already be (more) spectators Wink




Don't see any of the big teams struggling to finish in top two places in their group. If I had to pick one, it would probably be Italy with Switzerland/Northern Ireland in the group, who both can be tough to beat. Netherlands have some problems from time to time, but Turkey/Norway too weak in the end I guess. Groups F and H look pretty interesting.

Happy discussing and good luck with your bets Smiley
6  Local / Announcements (Deutsch) / Soccer Manager Elite ($SMC) on: November 15, 2020, 11:49:54 AM

Die offene Beta für dieses Spiel ist vor einigen Tagen gestartet und ich eröffne mal einen eigenen Thread dafür, da es auch eine eigene Krypto-Spielwährung (SMC) gibt.

Es handelt sich um einen play-to-earn Fussball Manager, der 100% dezentral auf der Xaya Blockchain läuft, keine NFT's. Alle Assets, die man besitzt, sind dem Spieler-Account zugehörig und können frei innerhalb der in-game DEX's gehandelt werden.

Es gibt drei verschiedene Rollen (Manager, Anteilseigner Klub/Spieler, Agent), die man einnehmen kann, auch gleichzeitig. Als Manager und Agent bekommt man ein Gehalt, als Anteilseigner entsprechend Dividenden für jeden Spieltag. Diese werden in SMC ausgezahlt, die man dann zurück in Bitcoin tauschen kann.

Das Onboarding ist immer ein großes Thema bei Blockchain-Spielen und hält viele Leute davon ab, Spiele mal auszuprobieren. SME hat ein integriertes lite-wallet (Electrum), womit diese Hürde nicht mehr so hoch ist - Spiel runterladen und es kann losgehen mehr oder weniger.

Für die offene Beta bekommt man alles, was man benötigt zur Verfügung gestellt: 30.000 SMC um Anteile zu kaufen, 0.3 CHI für tx fees, einen frei wählbaren Spielernamen.

Hier findet man eine Anleitung und auch den Download für das Spiel: Soccer Manager Elite



Ich habe natürlich das free pack in Anspruch genommen (30.000 SMC) und zusätzlich noch 105.000 SMC dazu gekauft, hatte also insgesamt 135.000 SMC zur Verfügung.

Nach drei Spieltagen (Spiele sind immer Mittwochs/Samstags), habe ich durch Dividenden, Manager- und Agentengehälter bereits ca. 25.000 SMC verdient, was einem ROI von ~18% in 10 Tagen entspricht.

Mein bester Trade war, als ich am Anfang Anteile an einem Klub für 54.900 SMC gekauft habe, die ich am nächsten Tag für 127.600 SMC (200 per Anteil) wieder verkauft habe, Fans gonna be fans Grin Jetzt ist der Ask-Preis schon bei 500 pro Anteil Shocked

7  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Marketplace (Altcoins) / TAURION - Fully Decentralized Blockchain MMO - Play to Earn on: August 28, 2020, 11:31:24 PM

WELCOME TO TAURION

Taurion is a fully decentralised MMORTS/MMORPG running serverless on the XAYA Blockchain. It has a fully player driven economy where players can: Mine, refine, research, build, upgrade, craft, strategise, ally, kill, steal, drive vehicles, explore, plan, earn, trade, transport, and much more.[1]

Full release of the game is planned for Q4 in 2020. There is a third Taurion Treasure Hunt running right now, where you can win great prizes, see the second post in this thread for that.

Introduction to Taurion







THE FACTIONS









SCREENSHOTS







BUILDINGS AND VEHICLES









Feel free to discuss this game in here, ask questions, look for support, build alliances, unleash your anger and brag about how much money you have made playing this game. Good luck and have fun Cool



[1] https://taurion.io/faq/
The pics and screenshots are not mine and posted with permission from Xaya team.

8  Economy / Gambling discussion / The UEFA Nations League 2020/2021 Discussion Thread on: August 26, 2020, 10:52:09 AM

Source: https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_fill,w_912,h_516,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/shape/cover/sport/uefa-nations-league-draw-others-5e5e911212eb9ad875000001.jpg

This competition was already a bit weird during normal times and I am not sure, if anyone really needs this during these difficult times. But anyway, you can bet on it, so lets use this thread to discuss the games and maybe find some good bets.



The Schedule


Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_UEFA_Nations_League

This shows already the madness - Finals one year later, play-outs even 1.5 years Tongue



League A

Group A1Group A2Group A3Group A4
____________________________________________________________________________
NetherlandsEnglandPortugalSwitzerland
ItalyBelgiumFranceSpain
Bosnia & HerzegovinaDenmarkSwedenUkraine
PolandIcelandCroatiaGermany

Group winners will move into Finals, last placed teams will relegate to League B.

League B

Group B1Group B2Group B3Group B4
____________________________________________________________________________
AustriaCzech RepublicRussiaWales
NorwayScotlandSerbiaFinland
Northern IrelandSlovakiaTurkeyIreland
RomaniaIsraelHungaryBulgaria

Group winners will promote to League A, last placed teams will relegate to League C.

League C

Group C1Group C2Group C3Group C4
____________________________________________________________________________
MontenegroGeorgiaGreeceAlbania
CyprusNorth MacedoniaKosovoBelarus
LuxembourgEstoniaSloveniaLithuania
AzerbaijanArmeniaMoldovaKazakhstan

Group winners will promote to League B, last placed teams will have play-outs to relegate to League D.

League D

Group D1Group D2
______________________________________
Faroe IslandGibraltar
LatviaLiechtenstein
AndorraSan Marino
Malta

Group winners will promote to League C, last placed teams will have to fear nothing Cheesy



The Odds


Source: https://www.bet365.com/#/AC/B1/C172/D1/E47096511/F2/

This is not very interesting right now, so just for the record Wink



There will be tons of matches next weekend already and among them some interesting ones (well that depends very much on your personal taste in the end), like Germany vs Spain, Portugal vs Croatia, Denmark vs Belgium, Sweden vs France etc. Most of these matches will be played behind closed doors for the time being afaik, so this will be a bit more difficult to predict like could be seen in the various european leagues and competitions already. The motivation of the teams is a big question mark, although this league has some implications for the 2022 World Cup qualification. I guess we will see some surprise results already in first round, you just have to spot them, which is not easy Grin

Happy discussing and predicting Smiley
9  Economy / Gambling discussion / Red Cards in Football and what they do to the odds and the outcome on: August 22, 2020, 09:55:56 PM

Red cards in football have a pretty big impact on football matches - there are only two incidents, when betting markets get suspended: goals and red cards. But how big is the impact of a red card in the end ?

This was always a factor of the game, where I wanted to do some research. There are some studies available in the internet, but they are way too simplified/general in the end for my liking. They don't take into account all the different circumstances which are important to do some analysis what a red card does to the game and how it potentially changed the outcome. These circumstances are:

  • What were the pre-match odds ?
  • When was the red card given ?
  • To which player was the red card given
  • What was the score at that time ?
  • Was it given to home or away side?
  • How did it affect the odds ?

Now these are probably too many factors to include in an anylysis in an online forum and it would take very long to have a big enough sample size to make a general assumption. But I want to use this thread to monitor games with red cards, to get a better feel for it, where some value could be found.

I will concentrate on ENG1, ESP1, ITA1 and GER1 for a start and see if there is any pattern. This will not be retrospective, but for the upcoming season in these leagues.

An example from FRA1 yesterday:

Bordeaux - Nantes
Pre-match odds: 2.64 - 2.94 - 3.02 (avg. from oddsportal)
Red card: Bordeaux in 20th minute, score 0-0
Final result: 0-0

After the red card for Bordeaux, the ML odds for Nantes went down to around 2.0-ish I think (didn't follow closely) and having watched the game in HT2, it would have been super value to place a bet on Bordeaux 1X, since Nantes was super poor. Bordeaux was happy defending the 0-0 and did so very well, can't remember a big goal scoring opportunity for Nantes. But it's not easy on a mental level to place a bet on a team that is one man down early in the game Wink



We can use this thread also for some discussion about it.

In general I don't like red cards in terms of betting, not even for the team I bet against pre-match. It gives the game a completely new dynamic, which is not something I like and where I struggle a lot. Most of the times a red card is shown, I just stop following the game, if I wanted to do some live bets - just too hard for me to judge.

So what does a red card do ? It depends very much on all these circumstances above. For example, if you lead 3-0 and get a red card in 89th minute, it doesn't matter. If you are 1.2 favourite at home and get a red card in 15th minute, you still have very good chances to take the 3 points.

A lot of what happens after a red card is shown, is psychological imo. The team that is down by one man "just" needs 10% more from the remaining 10 players to compensate, but in their mind they think "uh, we are down one man, we have no chance anymore". They will choose a more defensive approach and by subbing a striker out, they can just park the bus, don't attack the opponents defenders that hard and it will be very hard for their opponent to score. There isn't more space then and you don't even need to run that much more, if you are well organized.

A red card will always kind of motivate the team that got it. It ups the team spirit imo and they are willing to go the extra mile to defend the result; it can be a good boost in team morale, if they get the job done. The team that has the strength in numbers will feel some additional pressure otoh. They are somehow expected to get the 3 points no matter what then or everyone will laugh at them.

I have no data to back it up, but I think the betting markets always overreact when a red card occurs. Since the data is so hard to process and classify, there is always a lot of uncertainty in the markets. Lets see, if we can work something out here in this regard.

What is your opinion or experience regarding red cards and the impact they have on the outcome of a football match ? Did you play football on some (semi-)professional level and one of your teammates got a red card ? What did this do to you, your team and your mental approach ?
10  Local / Deutsch (German) / Geschichten über Dummheiten und Möchtegern-Millionäre on: August 10, 2020, 08:20:18 PM
Bin gerade bei Twitter über diesen Tweet gestolptert, der aus diesem Thread kommt:

Quote
Here are the details.

1) Bought 9,000 BTC on one of the exchanges over time.
2) Transferred them to my client running on a linux live CD distro of Debian.
3) Backed up the wallet file to a flash drive.
4) Sent 1 BTC to myself
5) Closed client before any confirmations
6) Shut down system (wiped system disk loaded into memory and therefore the ./bitcoin folder
7) Loaded system back up
Cool Copied old wallet.dat file into ./bitcoin folder
9) After some confirmations appeared the balance was 1 BTC and there was a transaction saying I spent 8,900 BTC to an address I did not recognize
10) I read on the forum threads that people have had problems like this but it seemed only when they were trying to double-spend by sending coins to another address and reloading an old wallet file


Is there anything I can do?

I do have the address that the 8,900 were supposedly sent to but the old wallet file is gone for good.

Thanks,
Stone Man

Stone Man hat in dem Thread auch die Adressen gepostet und die BTC sind tatsächlich/natürlich noch auf der Adresse:


Quelle: https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/address/167ZWTT8n6s4ya8cGjqNNQjDwDGY31vmHg

Autsch. Lustigerweise hat die Adresse immer mal wieder Eingänge, da machen sich die Leute wohl einen Spass. Absoluter Horror, aber fast jeder, mit dem ich im Kryptoversum rede, hat so eine Geschichte zu erzählen, wo er Coins aufgrund von Dummheit verloren hat oder hätte-wäre-wenn-Miillionär ist.

Ich bin bisher glimpflich davon gekommen (knocking on wood Tongue ), aber hat jemand von euch eine derartige Geschichte zu erzählen ? Ich weiss, über Verluste redet man nicht gerne, aber es kann auch befreiend wirken, also nur Mut Grin



Ich habe glücklicherweise noch nie den Zugang zu einer meiner Wallets verloren, aber habe aus Dummheit auch paar Coins verloren, was dann Murphy's Law in Gang setzte. Hatte mir ein Nano-Wallet (damals noch Raiblocks) mit Hilfe eines Youtube Videos installiert und mMn auch keinen Fehler gemacht. Dann eine Testauszahlung von Bitgrail zum Wallet gemacht, sind auch angekommen, aber ehe ich mich versehen hab, waren die auch schon wieder weg Cheesy Hatte wohl irgendwie ein öfftentliches/unverschlüsseltes Wallet erstellt, wie man mir damals sagte und dann hat jemand danke gesagt. War nur Mini Verlust - RAI stand damals bei 0.1 Euro - aber ich habe aus lauter Frust über meine eigene Mittelmäßigkeit dann alle restlichen RAI verkauft. Das war im November 2018 und ich hatte einen ganzen Haufen RAI für 0.05 Euro/RAI gekauft. Knapp zwei Monate später hat RAI dann den Weg zum Mond angetreten und ich glaube es gab nicht viele Kryptos, die in diesem Zeitraum mehr gestiegen sind, war die absolute Wahnsinns-Performance, aber ich hatte ja alles verkauft:


Quelle: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/nano/

Hab dann auf dem Weg nach unten immer mal wieder paar RAI, die dann schon in NANO rebranded waren, gekauft. Mal für 20,- Euro/NANO, mal für 15,-, mal für 10,-. Tja und dann hat Bitgrail den Abgang gemacht und die NANO waren wieder weg Grin Hatte mich nicht noch mal an das Wallet-Unterfangen rangetraut, aufgrund der schlechten Erfahrung von vor paar Monaten vorher und einfach alles auf Bitgrail gelassen. Mit NANO stehe ich wirklich auf Kriegsfuss Cheesy

Na ja, seitdem hoffe ich, dass NANO in der Versenkung verschwindet. Nicht weil ich das Projekt nicht mag, im Gegenteil, sondern weil ich einfach keine Lust habe, mich zu ärgern. Und bisher dümpelt NANO auch während dieses kleinen Bullruns lately so vor sich hin, was mir ganz recht ist (sorry an alle Hodler^^). Ich könnte einfach paar NANO kaufen und wieder bisschen mit im Boot sitzen, aber dann passiert bestimmt wieder irgendeine Sch****. Gibt so Sachen, da kann man machen, was man will, ist immer falsch.
11  Economy / Gambling discussion / The Cycling Thread on: August 10, 2020, 10:33:30 AM

Source: https://www.uci.org/

Cycling was for a long time my favourite sport to watch and to bet on. I always adored the cyclists for their dedication, idealism and willingness to suffer. And cyclists are tough as nails - I always laugh at footballers lying on the pitch, screaming and doing Hollywood with minor injuries Cheesy When there is some crash, the first thing these people do, is to look for their bike, because they want to keep going and not lose any time.


Source: https://www.pinterest.de/pin/569423946607544568/

Cycling is, to the surprise of a lot of people, a team sport in the end. Even the best rider is nothing without a team behind to provide support.

The season is underway again and there is a tight calendar:


Source: https://www.procyclingstats.com/races.php

The betting markets have changed a lot over the years and this is a very small market now, even for one of the biggest sport events worldwide every year, the Tour de France. Still there are some good bets to be found and I will post a pick here every now and then. The betting limits are rather small-ish, so this is nothing for highrollers, but you can work with a double digit yield, which compensates the lower stakes a bit.



Feel free to post your picks as well or discuss the races, good luck.
12  Economy / Gambling discussion / Football in China - The Chinese Super League on: July 17, 2020, 11:46:15 AM


The Chinese Super League has gained some more recognition in the last years, mainly due to a lot of well-known foreign players having been signed by the teams, that never seem to be short of money. You always have a lot of brazilian players earning their money there and the teams always look to naturalize some of them, to be able to have a stronger squad, since there is a foreign player policy. So it happens that Elkeson or Ricardo Goulart are now chinese citizens. In the last years even more and more foreign coaches moved to China, to earn good money there. Fabio Cannavaro, Vitor Pereira or Rafa Benitez are among them for example.

This league is not as crazy as the chinese Basketball league, but still there are strange things happening and the dynamics are a bit different to what people are used to for example in Europe.



The 2020 season was scheduled to begin in February, but due to Corona it was postponed and starts July 25th now. The teams are split into two groups with a round robin format, followed by a championship stage for the Top4 of each group and a relegation stage for the bottom four teams accordingly. Group A will play in Dalian, group B in Suzhou.

These are the groups:


Source: https://www.flashscore.com/football/china/super-league/standings/



For the first round, I would like to recommend the following bets:

Chongqing Lifan - Beijing Guoan 2 (@1.58)
Tianjin Teda - Shanghai SIPG 2 (@1.54)
parlay @2.43 7/10

and

Chongqing Lifan - Beijing Guoan HC2 -1.5 (@2.45)
Tianjin Teda - Shanghai SIPG HC2 -1.5 (@2.36)
parlay @5.78 2/10

Odds are from FortuneJack.

These odds are super value, should be 1.2 for both. Chongqing/Tianjin have huge trouble with their import players and Beijing/Shanghai are far superior anyway. You might want to choose lower stakes, because no one knows, what will happen in first round after Corona issues, but these odds will drop very likely and you can at least hedge them before kick-off. Games are played in neutral location.



Feel free to discuss this league in here, post your picks or add some information (these are often hard to find). But please don't spam useless stuff here or I will have to delete it; this is a self-moderated thread.
13  Economy / Gambling discussion / The Art of Exploiting vs the Bad Habit of Scamming on: July 10, 2020, 04:32:01 PM
I guess everyone is aware of the Bitcasino incident, which was also discussed afterwards in this thread. This is a topic that I thought about a lot in the past and which is super interesting, with even philosophical tendencies. And I guess it's a hot topic, with lots of different opinions and emotions.

I will stick with exploiting vs scamming here to make it easier. There is probably a fine line between these two phrases, but there is also exploiting and exploiting, scamming and scamming.



1) Lets start with a simple example, a football match, which is offered by every bookmaker you can imagine. There is breaking news, that team A will miss a lot of their players due to a flu. Odds are dropping like crazy in all bookmakers, but there is one bookmaker that is slow and has bad software. While all bookmakers only offer 1.40-ish for team B anymore, that bookmaker still has the initial 2.00 for them. Is it ok to bet on this 2.00 ? What if a bookmaker is constantly slow with adjusting odds and you could regularly do it ? Not for 2.00 -> 1.40, but maybe 2.00 -> 1.80.

2) By accident you discover that a bookmaker allows to parlay 1X2 and Asian Handicap market, which is of course a software issue. So you could parlay home win with AHC -0.5 for all kind of matches, which will give you good value odds. Is it ok to parlay these two dependant bets ?

3) This is the quote from user LAngel from that thread above (can't quote properly, because thread is locked)

Quote
there was a cheat where if you activate bonus bet, and spin until you get the 5-hit fish bonus, and immediately restart the game before stopping the symbol selector whee, your session will continue as if you had the bonus bet on (extra bonus chance) but not have to pay double for spins anymore that entire session.

Is it ok to take advantage of this software issue in general ? For $20 ? For $500k ? (Leave aside the fact, that LAngel played with "cheated" money).

4) Lets say I have a trading bot (in betting or crypto exchange) and this bot goes wild due to misprogramming and I lose loads of money. Are all these users filling my orders scammers, when it's obvious that these prices are wrong ?

-

What of the above is an exploit and what is a scam ? Where does an exploit start and a scam begin ? Are you clever or a cheater when doing this ? Is it more ok to do it for $10 than for $10,000 or $1.5mln like LAngel did ? Is it more ok to do it with a supposedly rich casino/bookmaker ?

-

And what about fixed matches ? These matches do exist, every day there is match fixing, but most of the time we gladly don't know or aren't aware. If you (get to) know about a fixed match and bet on it, does that make you a scammer/cheater ?



Gambling is a (most of the time unfair) competition in the end. Should the "software factor" be completely called immoral and unethical behaviour, when you take advantage of it ? If there is a line for you, where is it ?

There is way more to this discussion imo, but I will leave this as a start and we can work out more as this thread evolves (hopefully).

I made this thread self-moderated, because these kind of threads unfortunately get spammy very fast, with a lot of users just repeating things over and over.
14  Economy / Gambling discussion / [Betting & Discussion] Chinese Basketball Association - Rest of 2019/2020 Season on: June 23, 2020, 11:48:31 AM

The Chinese Basketball Association (CBA) has resumed their league on June 20th after it was paused for almost five months. As most of the Basketball leagues, there is kind of a new format. The CBA plays the rest of their games at two venues - Dongguan and Qingdao. There will be games played until July 1st, then a 3-day-break, and starting at July 4th two more weeks of play after which the playoffs start then.

I will post some bets here, please follow at your own risk; this league is crazy and there is a lot of match fixing going on. They have some special rules regarding the import players and when playing against military team Bayi Rockets there are even some additional rules. I will work out these bets together with a friend of mine, who is not active in this forum, so this is a team effort. I will try to do short write-ups/reasonings, if this is "possible".

I will use unit system 1/10 to 10/10 for the bets and keep track here in this thread. Nearly all bets will be pre-match, since the odds are moving too fast inplay to have everything transparent in here and for people to follow properly, if they want. Every now and then, there might be a live bet, when the game is in half-time or between quarters. There is no dedicated bookmaker, where the bets are played. You can find CBA markets in all bookmakers, fiat and crypto, just check for yourself, where you can get the best odds, if you want to follow.

Feel free to discuss, add some thoughts or post your own bets from CBA. This is not a thread exclusively for me to have a monologue here, but it's self-moderated, so don't spam useless stuff please.

Good luck Smiley



First two bets, starting in 10 minutes:

Shandong - Beijing HC2 -5.5 @1.79 5/10
Shandong - Beijing under 207.5 @1.73 5/10

Beijing has lost first leg with 90-95, so it's important for them to win with at least +6 today, to win the H2H.



Bets for June 24th:

Shanghai - Liaoning HC1 +12,5 @1.85 5/10
Shanghai - Liaoning ML Shanghai @7.40 1/10

Opening line was +/-6,5 which was probably fair, but +/-12,5 is definitely too much, so worth a try. If HC is too high, the ML has value then too, so small stakes on the upset as well.

3 bets for the late game:

Xinjiang - Beijing HC2 +7.5 @1.89 5/10
Xinjiang - Beijing ML Beijing @3.60 1/10
Xinjiang - Beijing under 193.5 @1.91 3/10
15  Other / Meta / Where to put a thread about a new blockchain game ? on: June 15, 2020, 09:41:39 AM
As the title says, I am wondering where would be the correct place in this forum to open a thread about a (new) blockchain game ?

I recently saw UNIQUE GAME 🔥 Satoshi Battles 🔥 QUESTS - RPG - LEVELING - EVENTS 🔥 MMORPG being posted in Bitcoin Forum > Economy > Marketplace > Gambling. It's a play-to-earn game, where you have to invest some BTC first to play and it's a skill game so I think Gambling section fits - though you wouldn't refer to it as gambling from my understanding. It's gaming, but where is the line and there is no dedicated blockchain gaming section afaik.

What if it's a blockchain game on an "Altcoin-Platform" with maybe another non-BTC in-game cryptocurrency on top, but play-to-earn, skill/strategic game, fully decentralized ? Is the Gambling section only restricted to Bitcoin "things". There are Tron-based gambling projects f.e. too, but I am not sure tbh Huh
16  Economy / Gambling discussion / [Discussion] X-Raying Paid Tipsters Services on: April 18, 2020, 10:48:39 AM
Inspired by this post from @SyGambler and with his "permission", I am opening this thread to discuss and analyze paid tipsters in here. A lot of them are regularly showing up in the gambling section and promoting their services.

Whether you sould sign up for paid tipping services or not, is up to you. Good and longterm profitable services are very rare. The majority is using a recent good run to earn some extra money, but they are not really successful gamblers. Don't get fooled by buzz words and false promises, take your time to monitor the tipster, their style of betting and draw your conclusions. Check the verifiable history (if any) and don't get FOMOed by instantly jumping in, just because of recent good results. A good service will make you money longterm, so take your time to evaluate. The (weekly/monthly/yearly) price is also something to consider, especially if you are no high-roller, it might eat a good amount of your winnings.

This thread is not only restricted to services promoted in this forum. If you stumble across some interesting one, just post it and we can all have a look, what it is about. Don't use this thread to extensively promote your own tipping service - make your own thread for that - but feel free to engage in discussions about your or other users services. Self-moderated for obvious reasons.



My Top3 of what a paid tipster has to offer, apart from being profitable of course:

  • Honesty and transparency
  • Reasonable prices
  • Liquid markets/leagues or max amount of subscribers




I'll start with a service that was promoted here in recent weeks/months and which I followed and still follow, without having subscribed: Sport X Tipster's Betting Predictions | +65% WR | +$300K Overall PROFIT !!!

Thread title is already a bit lurid, but well. I basically only followed what they were doing from the point they showed up here. Football was still running and they were doing ok-ish. Very responsive and friendly in their thread and with ok-ish write-ups/reasonings. They had some questionable bets, or rather the staking was off imo, for CL matches, which put them in the red. When leagues were suspended they lost themselves in these little leagues still running and faded badly. They are now desperately trying to go green again on their blogabet by overstaking heavily:


Source: https://sportxtipster.blogabet.com/

While I would have given them a pass with trying their luck in these small leagues during Corona, this overstaking is a big no-no for me. This is very unprofessional and not what any semi-ambitious punter is looking for. Shows me, they are not in it for the long run and thus not interesting for me. They are no scammers whatsoever, but I don't think this service will be profitable in the future, unless they change their approach and work on their staking.
17  Economy / Gambling discussion / US Presidential Election 2020 on: April 04, 2020, 11:27:09 PM
I will happily admit not being an expert when it comes to US politics nor am I totally understanding all these pre-elections, delegates etc. It's hard to get the exact modus operandi for someone not living in the US - maybe even for people that actually live there, not sure - and tbh I didn't dive too deep into it (shame on me).

I am following the daily pressers of Andrew Cuomo and what can I say, I am impressed with him. That guy seems to be super nice, super humane, super empathic, super charismatic and from my outsiders point of view managing the horrible situation in the state of New York very good. Every time I watch him, I think, that he would be a good US president and a breath of fresh air compared to Trump.

Out of curiosity I checked the betting odds. Was not expecting to find any odds for him, but to my surprise he is 3rd favourite to become the next president. Quite amazing for someone who I thought not even to be "eligible". After some research, I found out, that it is indeed still possible for him to run for president. These are the odds, taken from Orbit Exchange:


Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128151441

For those not familiar with betting, odds of 46 imply a probabilty of ~2.17% for this outcome to happen. And I have the feeling, that the probabilty of Cuomo being the next president is higher.

I know he just said a few days ago to not even spending a thought about running for president, but you never know, he wouldn't be the first politician to change his mind. He is friends with Biden, which isn't helping my case here.

My point is, if (and that is a big if) he is running for president, I think he would easily beat Trump. And Biden and those delegates who select him, know this too. Democrats want to get rid of Trump and Cuomo is giving them the best chance to do so. Would they sacrifice Biden ?

Biden is pretty old already. Not wishing him any bad - I am thinking from a betting perspective here, not as a human being - but he had some health issues in the past and with 75+ you are more prone to diseases. This is unlikely to happen and I certainly don't wish for it, but that alone maybe has already 1% here.

If Cuomo somehow is able to prevent the worst for New York and then goes on to help other states, that peak later, I could see a lot of public pressure being put on Biden. And maybe, just maybe, he will step down on his own and make room for Cuomo.

Am I being totally delusional here ?

I really like those odds for Cuomo and there is not a lot to lose with such high odds, but I would like to hear some opinions from other users. And since we have a lot of US guys here, you can probably enlighten me, how likely that all is regarding the nominee procedure, which is already midway through with the pre-elections.
18  Economy / Gambling discussion / Looking into the Abyss - The Financial Struggle of Sport Teams amid Covid-19 on: March 22, 2020, 11:30:24 PM
Not only companies are already struggling during these hard times, but also lots of sports teams. Unfortunately we have some prominent athletes getting infected with that virus, which could have longterm effects on their performance, but also clubs are having some hard times financially due to literally being out of revenue streams, while still having to pay the salaries. And for clubs in Basketball, Handball, Volleyball and even some Football teams, this could get really ugly. They are very dependant to get money from ticket sales and some additional sponsoring deals.

This thread is for keeping track of such teams. Why ? Because once the competitions resume, this should get very interesting in terms of betting.

Don't use this thread for discussions surrounding sports and Covid-19 (there are gazillion of other threads for that), but for hard, provable facts.



I'll start with some news from German Basketball League (BBL). There are now three teams, that have laid off lots of their players already.

Brose Bamberg

Jordan Crawford (Top Scorer, 17.0ppg) and Darion Atkins (5.8ppg) were sent home and won't come back.

Some more players have left to go back to USA, but will be available at a later point again.

Telekom Baskets Bonn

Branden Frazier (14.0ppg), Stephen Zimmerman (6.6ppg), Geno Lawrence (5.3ppg & 23mpg) and Donald Sloan (14.0ppg) were released and will not come back. If the season somehow resumes, Bonn will be doomed without these.

Rasta Vechta

Huge trouble for them, they will have to file for bankruptcy, if they won't get financial support.

Jordan Davis (11.2ppg), Kamari Murphy (5.5ppg) and Steve Vasturia (13.4ppg) were released already and will not return.



If you have any information about other teams, maybe your domestic ones, that struggle and have to lay off players to save money, please post here with source.
19  Economy / Gambling discussion / [Discussion] There is more to Home Advantage than just Fans on: March 09, 2020, 10:16:23 PM
When reading through the betting world, through forums and different analyses to predict the outcome of a sport event, you will often hear about the impact of home advantage. You will read something like "they have great fans", "40,000 fans will cheer them to victory" or even "they don't have a lot of fans, so not much home advantage". While this might be valid to some extent, there is some misconception of what home advantage is and/or what are all the ingredients of it.

Playing in front of your fans and home crowd is certainly a big advantage. They can tip the scale in decisive moments, they can get a few extra percent out of a team, they can cheer you up, when you are down. They can also be cruel sometimes, but normally they will support you no matter what - as long as you show effort and fight till the end relentlessly.

The common opinion about (only) fans being the home advantage would suggest, that we will see a lot of f.e. football matches in the next weeks, where there is no home advantage, since they are played behind closed doors due to Corona virus. Home advantage will normally reflect in the odds with a 10% shift in favour of the home team. So, in a 2-way market, where both teams are considered equally strong, the probabilities to win start at 60% vs. 40%, disregarding all other circumstances.

Monitoring the odds movement from those games, where there will be no spectators, will let you realize, that there wasn't a rescission of that 10% to meet the fact, that there is no home advantage no more. Why is that ? Answer: There is more to home advantage than just fans and it's often overlooked imo.

I won't just list, what I think are additional factors to home advantage, because that would be boring. I want to hear your thoughts about what home advantage is for you, if you agree with my statement that it's not just the fans.

Discuss.


Source: https://www.fnp.de/frankfurt/frankfurt-hessen-denkt-eintracht-frankfurt-ueber-eine-pyro-legalisierung-stadien-11783690.html



Self-moderated thread and I will delete all spam posts (based on my judgement).
20  Economy / Gambling discussion / [Discussion & Betting] - The 2021 UEFA European Football Championship on: February 26, 2020, 01:21:15 PM

Pic taken from: https://allianz-arena.com/de/die-arena/euro-2020#

The Format

The 2020 UEFA European Football Championship will be held from June 11th to July 11th 2021.
This years edition will feature a new format, where not one (or two) country will be the host, but the matches will be spread among 12 cities in Europe and Asia.

A total of 24 teams will be present at this tournament, divided into six groups.
The group stage will be followed by the knockout phase with round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals and the big final, where the new European Football Champion will be crowned then.



The Venues

CityStadiumCapacityMatches
________________________________________________________________________________________________
LondonWembley Stadium90,0003x Gr. D, R16, 2x SF, F
BakuOlympic Stadium68,7003x Gr. A, QF
MunichAllianz Arena70,0003x Gr. F, QF
RomeStadio Olimpico70,6983x Gr. A, QF
GlasgowHampden Park52,5003x Gr. D, R16
Saint PetersburgKrestovsky Stadium68,1343x Gr. B, QF
DublinAviva Stadium51,7003x Gr. E, R16
CopenhagenParken38,1903x Gr. B, R16
BilbaoSan Mamés53,3323x Gr. E, R16
AmsterdamJohan Cruyff Arena54,9903x Gr. C, R16
BudapestPuskás Aréna67,8893x Gr. F, R16
BucharestArena Națională55,6003x Gr. C, R16



The Groups

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup EGroup F
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
TurkeyDenmarkNetherlandsEnglandSpainTBD
ItalyFinlandUkraineCroatiaSwedenPortugal
WalesBelgiumAustriaTBDPolandFrance
SwitzerlandRussiaTBDCzech RepublicTBDGermany

First two teams in each group and four best third placed teams will advance to knockout phase.

For the TBD teams, please see the second post in this thread.



The Odds
As of February 26th 2020, taken from Bet365.





I am not a big fan of this new format, but lets see. The fact that there will be matches played in countries that didn't qualify is kind of weird and I fear that some Euro-vibes will be missing because of that. The European Championships were always a very colourful event, where football fans from all over Europe would meet and celebrate together. Now everything is spread over the whole continent and the fans have to travel a lot and can't just stay for maybe a 4-week vacation in the same country, mixing it up with watching some football in the stadiums.

Group F is of course the most competitive one, will be interesting to see which teams will be able to advance to knockout phase from that group. Group D looks interesting and if Scotland is able to win their playoffs, they will join that group - should be fun then.  



I made this thread self-moderated. I don't plan to delete a lot of posts, but rather let a fruitful discussion unfold. If it gets too spammy, I will delete posts though. So just stay on topic, share your thoughts, discuss the teams, odds, matches and don't spam useless stuff.
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