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1  Economy / Computer hardware / [WTB] Scrypt Miners 90MH - 400MH - US Only on: January 13, 2015, 04:48:15 AM
Looking to purchase Scrypt Miners that operate at 90MH+ with at least 100MH / 1KW consumption rating.

Don't want to get eaten up by shipping, so I'm looking to purchase from the US only unless you're paying express shipping charges.

Will consider KNC (with proof of stability), Innosilicon, MAT, or other manufacturers - post here or PM me with offers.

Thanks-
2  Economy / Auctions / US eBay Account - 15 Years Old, 650 Feedback, $106K Sales Limit on: January 13, 2015, 04:42:44 AM
I've had a number of inquiries over the past few weeks about a comment that I made about my eBay account.

Here are the details:

  • US eBay Account (Buyer/Seller)
  • Created Feb. 2000 - 15 Year Age
  • 650 Feedback - 100% Positive Last 12 Mos. - A significant amount of feedback is from sales, not just purchases
  • $106,000 Monthly Sales Limit - 100 Item Limit

This account is valuable for the feedback rating and quantity and for the very high sales limit. Upon successful purchase I will transfer over ownership of the account to the new owner; any links to my personal or financial information will be removed.

I can provide the actual account name to seriously interested parties.

I'd expect my reputation to provide enough trust but I'm happy to work with a reputable escrow. Any escrowed bids must specify the escrow and I reserve the right to refuse any bid for this reason.

Bidding starts at 2BTC - I've received offers for this amount, so I consider it a reasonable starting bid. No reserve.

Bidding ends at 7PM Eastern Time GMT-4 (11PM GMT) on Sunday, January 18th.


Please PM with questions or post here in the thread.

-2070












3  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / AlcheMiner 96MH/s Alchemist Scrypt Miner Unboxing / Review on: October 16, 2014, 03:25:03 PM

It seems that many people here on the boards aren't familiar with AlcheMiner, a Scrypt-miner company located in Taiwan.

You can see more information about the company at www.alcheminer.com - current pricing is:

96MH/s Alchemist - $1,500  $1,199
256MH/s Alchemist - $3,900 $3,099

This review/unboxing will be focused on the 96MH/s version

Actual Hashrate:
100MH/s @ GHash.io LTC, 50,000 Diff
94MH/s @ Clevermining (still testing), 65,536 Diff

Power draw: 900W (haven't tested at the wall)


With KNC's Titans plagued with such issues, it's been great to see that the Alchemists were made with such high quality.

NOTE: I maintain a business relationship with Alcheminer, so I have a vested interest in the company's success - please take this into account when reading this review. All information here is true and complete, but bias (recognized or unrecognized) is always a possible issue.

Overall, I'm extremely pleased with the build quality and, after the last firmware update, the hashing capability.

I received it about a week ago and, after two substandard power supplies, am finally hashing away with no problems.

Finally arrived from Taiwan!





Packed very well -


Box only includes the miner and two screw-on plates (not pictured) for rack-mounting





Looks very slick; the casing is like a thick computer tower case, not flimsy metal.





The front has three fan intakes - this is the 96MH version, so there is only one set of boards and fan. The 256MH/s model would have all three. The top right hand corner has the LED display screen and the power button.





The rear has the fax exhaust port, a PCIE 8-pin power port for the controller board and three more for the mining boards themselves. Last is of course the ethernet port.




Looking good with the wireless bridge




Get a good PSU!

It will need 900W @ 12v, so ensure that your PSU can handle that - I've got a EVGA 1300W just to ensure that there's enough for the draw. Also, the EVGA PSU came with a pin connector so that you don't have to short the PSU with a paper clip to start it - talk about foresight!






The LED fades in and out constantly while it's hashing - you wouldn't want it in your room for this reason... or because it's loud and hot!

The hashrate, when first powered on, spikes up to well above 100MH, but later comes back down to the standard 90 - 98MH/s range. I'll be interested to see if the boards can support higher hashrates with future firmware updates.







...and he lives in the garage now! 'Wife doesn't like the noise and heat' is almost a cliche on these forums - but it's true! This is best suited to a garage, cool basement, or other area away from main living area. The fan is pretty loud and it does generate a significant amount of heat if kept enclosed with little venting.





The backend is easily interfaced through a web browser and allows pools settings, hashrate monitor, IP settings, password change, and firmware updates.



Performance


The miner did require a firmware update when I first received it; there was an issue with the pool settings.

After getting everything set up, I was hashing at Ghash.io LTC pool at an average of about 75MH/s - there would sometimes be a ramp up and down, but that was the average after about 24 hours.

Tom, the lead engineer, sent a new firmware update with promises of better performance. After breaking it in for 14 hours, it was hashing at an average of 100MH/s!

You can see here in GHash's performance history - the change in variance is the new update. The miner does better with larger shares (50,000+) instead of smaller shares like 4096 or 8192.

This is the cause of the big variance and the increase in stales/rejects. Even with the increase in rejects, the hashrate is still far better than before.



Clevermining is still coming along as well, but I have yet to get a full 24 hours on the pool.






Hope you enjoyed the unboxing! Please let me know if anyone here would like additional pictures or information  Grin
4  Economy / Securities / BMF has lost access to it's wallet [UnModerated] on: May 30, 2014, 06:19:39 AM
I am sick and tired of scammers hiding themselves under the guise of moderated posts. For every moderated thread that is posted here, I will post an unmoderated version.

I have no ulterior motive except to provide an uncensored thread for anyone to discuss any thread that is moderated here.

My security does not operate under a moderated thread and I do not expect or think it should be allowed for anyone else to do so.

Usagi has deleted many posts critical of him, so I hope that this thread can be a place where people can be openly critical without the threat of deletion.

Those that have the most to hide have the most to lose because of the revelation of the truth.

OP:

Hello. This is the letter I never expected I would have to write, primarily because I never saw this coming.

On MayMarch 29th, 2014, I received the last e-mail which passed through tsukino.ca and the website was shut down by BitVPS.

The official story is that a RAID disk was pulled and was no longer in use. How this could have happened to a live server, esp. one of the more expensive plans (KVM-6) was never explained. The problem was not noticed by BitVPS but two weeks after, I sent them a letter asking about my server. I was assured someone would look into it.

How the remote backups which I had running via cron disappeared was never explained or commented on.

Over the next month, there were few emails sent to support. The responses were typically "someone is looking into it" or abouts; I didn't pay it much attention. In the back of my mind I had always assumed someone was looking into it and that the problem would be fixed soon. In the last two weeks (or so) I have stepped up efforts; On the 20th I ended up opening a ticket because email and IRC was something of a dead-end. Not because I couldn't talk to people like arij and Starsoccer and a few others, but because nothing was ever done.

On the 23rd my ticket expired unanswered so I reopened it. It remains unanswered and just expired again.

On the 27th I sent arij (the president of BitVPS) a detailed e-mail letter explaining what was going on and he assured me on IRC that he would open a new server for me "right away" while they worked on the backups so that I could at least resume development and have a webpage.

Of course, two days later, nothing has been done. Unfortunately I still don't know precisely why this hasn't been fixed and due to the exceedingly odd circumstances surrounding it, I am forced to disclose this as material information about BMF; BMF's webpage and it's wallet were hosted on that server (primarily because I was developing a web wallet service called hotwallet.ca since a couple of years ago). This wallet and all the bitcoins in it have been lost. The total estimated damage is about $10,000 in realized costs. There is a much larger amount possibly lost in losing the ability to prove we are GLBSE claimants. Not a small amount of money by any means, but not a huge and ugly number like "millions" (I pity some web businesses). However it means we can never prove a legal claim to money owed to us by HashKing, AmazingRando, Ian Bakewell, BitcoinRS, etc.

I have to admit, I have been assured by tech support that I would be taken care of and that a new server would be set up for us. However, it has not been done. Two months is a long time; if it gets done later I'll post an update.

This has set us back about 2 years. Essentially, our only asset now is our mining income stream. We have 36 mHash/share which is a significant increase over our last reported number, but please excuse me for not calculating the gain in percentage terms because this setback is deeply troubling to me.


I may have slightly panicked; they have assured me a new server can be up in about a day. Fingers crossed!


We can all learn something from here:
   The act of spilling cofee absolve everybody from any guilt. Nobody is to blaim. Look no further! (but if you do you will be deleted)

Nahh I don't delete people unless they're trolling. As I said I am sorry it happened but these things do end up occurring one in a million once in a while. It's like having a top executive commit suicide; If you want I guess you can blame the boss for giving him too much pressure at work but it's a bit of a stretch, isn't it?

EDIT: Removed the name of the Security to assuage concerns that this is a self-promoting post.
5  Economy / Invites & Accounts / [WTB] Poolwarz Account on: March 23, 2014, 03:57:29 PM
Looking to buy one Poolwarz account, please PM with lowest offer. The waiting list isn't as long as it used to be, so I won't be paying .1 like previous buyers-
6  Economy / Securities / [Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD) on: January 24, 2014, 11:44:06 AM
BDD: Round 3 - Starting February 22, 2016 on Havelock



Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD)

Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative is listed on Havelock Investments under B.MINE, B.SELL, and B.EXCH.

BDD allows users to speculate on the future difficulty of Bitcoin mining via a Mining-bond-like contract (B.MINE) and a contract that is 'short' of the value of B.MINE (B.SELL).


This Round, Round 3 of BDD, differs from Round 2 in the following ways:
    MINE units pay out dividends at a theoretical hash rate of 250 GH/s, compared to 100 GH/s previously

    Please see the overview below for a detailed explanation of the set of contracts. This overview is subject to change indefinitely.

Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD) is a set of three distinct linked contracts, B.MINE, B.SELL, and B.EXCH, that allows users to speculate on the future of the Bitcoin Network Difficulty.  

B.MINE acts as a 250 GH/s (250 Gigahash per second) Mining Payout Contract (formerly colloquially known as a ‘Mining Bond’)
B.SELL is a bet that buyers overvalue B.MINE
B.EXCH is the contract that can be purchased to receive a BDD Pair (1 B.MINE and 1 B.SELL)

Overview

BDD exists to allow users to speculate on the future of the Bitcoin Network Difficulty (Difficulty) via the trading of the value of theoretical Bitcoin mining equipment.

In reality, Bitcoin mining equipment’s value is derived from the amount of Bitcoin that the mining equipment is expected to produce over its useful lifetime. The amount that the equipment’s useful lifetime is normally considered to cease once it no longer mines enough Bitcoin to pay for its power costs.

However, in order to determine the value of Bitcoin mining equipment in advance, foresight of future Bitcoin Network Difficulty changes would be required. Since the Difficulty changes based on the computation power of Bitcoin miners in aggregate (the Network Hashrate), and since the aggregate computation power of Bitcoin miners is constantly in flux, it is practically impossible to estimate Difficulty changes with precision over any significant time horizon.

BDD, therefore, allows users to either purchase a contract that pays dividends as if they own Bitcoin mining equipment (B.MINE) or to, essentially, short the value of a B.MINE contract, believing that the market value of that contract is overvalued (B.SELL). The number of units of B.MINE and B.SELL on the market will always be equal, as the only method of procuring ‘new’ contracts of either B.MINE or B.SELL is to purchase them as a pair from the Manager through B.EXCH.

The Manager will only determine the value of B.EXCH, which is set at the daily NAV/U (Net Asset Value per Unit) plus 3.4%. The Manager will only issue equal pairs of B.MINE and B.SELL in exchange for B.EXCH. Only the holders of B.MINE and B.SELL will determine the price of those contracts on the open Market.

B.MINE

B.MINE allows its holder to receive daily dividends of the theoretical mining output of a 250GH/s Bitcoin miner. Dividends will be paid to holders of B.MINE at or around 12:00PM Eastern Time each day.

For an individual who wants to enter the Bitcoin mining space, purchasing B.MINE has the following advantages over purchasing a physical Bitcoin miner, or a miner-backed security:

•   Mining payouts start immediately – there is no pre-order or shipping delay
•   Since the payout is calculated via formula instead of on actual mining hardware performance, there are no mining pool fees, no risk of hardware failure, no risk of power outage, no risk of mining hardware underperforming its specifications, and no electricity bills
•   Dividends are paid daily and not subject to minimum dividend payment limits
•   B.MINE may be sold at any time into the Market for the Market Price, provided that there are buyers for it

Buyers can acquire a B.MINE contract in one of two ways:
1.   Purchasing B.MINE on the open Market from another user, or
2.   Purchasing B.EXCH, which is automatically exchanged for a BDD Pair (1 B.MINE and 1 B.SELL); and selling the B.SELL contract on the open Market

B.MINE’s daily dividend payout is calculated using the following formula:

B.MINE Hash Rate * Block Reward * 86400 * ((65535 / 2^48 )/Difficulty)

B.MINE Hash Rate is the set hash rate, in H/s (hashes per second) of B.MINE. This is set at 250GH/s (250,000,000,000 H/s)

Block Reward is the Bitcoin Network Block Reward for the current Difficulty. This is currently at 25 BTC per Block and will remain so until about sometime during 2016. However, When the actual Bitcoin Network Block Reward halves, this value will halve as well.

86400 is the number of seconds in a day, which is relevant because Bitcoin mining computation power is measured in hashes per second (H/s)

65535 / 2^48 is the constant which is divided by Difficulty to produce the likelihood of producing a Block in a single hash

Difficulty is the Bitcoin Network Difficulty at 12:00 PM Eastern Time on the day that dividends are paid out

B.MINE and Difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative’s goal is to keep a maximum of 180 days (six months) worth of daily dividends at the current Difficulty in reserve for B.MINE.  180 Days of Dividends is referred to as the ‘Reserve’. The formula for calculating B.MINE’s dividend payout is based partly upon the Bitcoin Network Difficulty (the Difficulty). As the Difficulty changes, the fund’s target Reserve will change as well.  

If the Difficulty increases then, at the Difficulty change, the total capital required to hold 180 days of B.MINE’s dividends will fall. If Difficulty falls, the total capital required to hold 180 days of B.MINE’s dividends will rise. If difficulty increases, a 250GH/s miner would pay out less in daily dividends; If difficulty falls, a 250GH/s miner would pay out more in daily dividends.  

B.SELL

Holding B.SELL allows the holder to, in essence, short the value of B.MINE. For a comparison, imagine that a Bitcoin user holds 250GH/s miner in their hand. They have a calculation to make here – would it be more profitable to mine with the equipment or to sell it to someone else?

This calculation would depend on two factors:

1.   How much Bitcoin the user thinks that the miner will mine over its useful lifetime, and
2.   What people are paying to purchase a comparable 250GH/s miner

A rational decision would be: I believe that this miner will mine X amount of BTC over its lifetime, but people are buying this miner for Y amount of BTC on the market. Whichever amount is greater (X or Y; the mining value versus the sale value), the user would choose. If user has determined that the amount that people are paying for the miner (Y) is overvalued, he will sell that miner (buying/holding B.MINE).

Of course, no one can know how much a 250GH/s miner will mine over its lifetime; the user needs to do his own math and decide what he believes will happen with the Difficulty in the future.

Buyers can acquire a B.SELL contract in one of two ways:
1.   Purchasing B.SELL on the open Market from another user, or
2.   Purchasing B.EXCH, which is automatically exchange for a BDD Pair (1 B.MINE and 1 B.SELL); and selling the B.MINE contract on the open Market


B.SELL and Difficulty

Holders of B.SELL believe that B.MINE is overvalued by the Market. As mentioned in ‘B.MINE and Difficulty’ above, the amount of capital required in reserve for B.MINE changes proportionally with the Difficulty.

At each Difficulty change, the Reserve of 180 days of B.MINE daily dividends will be recalculated. The funds on hand divided by the total number of contract pairs (B.MINE and B.SELL pairs) equals the Net Asset Value per Unit (NAV/U). If NAV/U exceeds 180 days of B.MINE daily dividends (the Reserve), then a dividend for this surplus amount will be issued proportionally to B.SELL.

The total amount of units for calculating NAV/U is the total outstanding number of B.SELL or B.MINE units (there will be an equal number of units outstanding).

For example, using a very simple model:

In Period 1, Difficulty is 2,514,532 and B.MINE is paying out 1 BTC per day. 180 Days of B.MINE daily dividends is 180 Days * 1 BTC = 180 BTC, so the fund needs to hold in Reserve 180 BTC to pay out 180 days of dividends for one unit of B.MINE.

At the next Difficulty change, for Period 2, the Difficulty increases 20% to 3,017,438.
At each Difficulty change, B.MINE’s daily dividend is recalculated. Since the formula to determine B.MINE’s daily dividend moves proportionally with the Difficulty, a 20% increase in Difficulty would cause B.MINE’s daily payout to decrease by 16.666% (as difficulty increases, miners generate less BTC) to 0.8333BTC per Day.

180 Days of B.MINE daily dividends, at the new Difficulty, is 0.8333BTC * 180 = 149.994 BTC.

For Period 1, the fund held 180 BTC in reserve. Now, for Period 2, the fund is only required to hold 149.994 BTC on hand, leaving a surplus of 30.006 BTC (180 BTC – 149.994 BTC = 30.006 BTC).  This example does not take into account the MINE dividends that have already been paid out before the difficulty increase.
   
The outstanding B.SELL contract would then be issued a dividend of the 30.006 BTC surplus, as those funds are no longer required to be held for B.MINE’s 180 days of daily dividends.

If the funds required for B.MINE’s new 180 days of daily dividends do not leave a surplus (due to Difficulty stagnation or decrease), then B.SELL will not receive a dividend for that Period (nor will B.EXCH).

Example of the Effect of Difficulty Change on Fund Reserves:

20% Difficulty Increase




No Difficulty Increase OR Difficulty Decrease


B.EXCH

B.EXCH exists to provide a means through which B.MINE and B.SELL can be distributed into the market in equal amounts without being sold individually by the Manager. B.MINE and B.SELL must always be issued in equal amounts, and remain in equal amounts outstanding, to ensure that each B.MINE contract is backed by the funds of a B.SELL contract.

A user can purchase B.EXCH for the NAV/U (Net Asset Value / Unit) plus 3.4% on the open market. The 3.4% surcharge breaks down into 3% as a Management Fee paid to the Manager, and .4% to cover the Exchange Fee assessed by Havelock Investments on all sales on the site. The fund may issue an unlimited number of B.EXCH into the Market via direct sales to users on the Market, but only at the NAV/U + 3.4%. Once B.EXCH is purchased by a user, the exchange will automatically buy back the EXCH contract(s) at zero value and issue one B.MINE contract and one B.SELL contract (a BDD Pair) for each B.EXCH contract purchased. The user can then sell or hold one or both of the contracts.

The Period NAV/U is calculated at the beginning of each Period, which begins after a Difficulty change. The Manager will also provide a Daily Published NAV/U on the Bitcointalk thread.

B.EXCH Buy-Back

The fund will buy back equal pairs of B.MINE and B.SELL at the last Daily Published NAV/U less 2%.

This buy-back provides an opportunity for arbitrageurs to profit if the Market Price for both B.MINE and B.SELL are too low, as they can buy both contracts on the Market and then send them to the Manager for redemption at the NAV/U less 2%

To sell back a BDD Pair, simply send an equal number of B.SELL and B.MINE to the Manager – bitcoinderiv@gmail.com . After the pair is received, the fund will buy them back for the amount described above.

Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative End-Game

There are two possible end-game outcomes for BDD:

BDD End-Game via Increase
The first possibility is that Difficulty increases substantially and continuously and the daily B.MINE dividend payments become smaller and smaller as time passes. In the event that the fund Reserve (180 days of dividends) is calculated after a Difficulty increase to less than 0.02 BTC per unit, then each B.MINE contract will be bought back (forced) by the Manager for 180 Days of Dividends at the new daily dividend rate.

B.SELL contracts will be bought back (forced) by the Manager for the proportional value of the excess capital (total excess capital after B.MINE buyback divided by total B.SELL contracts outstanding).

Example: It is determined that, after the Difficulty change, the NAV/U is 0.023 BTC and that 180 days of daily dividends (the Reserve) is 0.017 BTC.

Since the Reserve (180 Days of B.MINE dividends) is less than 0.02 BTC, all B.MINE will be bought back for 0.017 BTC each (180 days of dividends at the current rate). The excess per unit, 0.006 BTC, will be paid out to B.SELL contracts when they are bought back.

BDD End-Game via Decrease
The second possibility is that Difficulty stagnates or decreases and the fund Reserve is deficient (no longer holds 180 days of dividends at current Difficulty). In this scenario, B.MINE will continue to receive daily dividends until the fund’s capital is exhausted. If the difficulty continued to decrease or stagnate, B.SELL would receive no further dividends and all B.SELL contracts would be bought back (forced) for no value after the fund’s capital is exhausted (as all funds would have been paid out to B.MINE).

In cases of changes between increase and decrease/stagnation in Difficulty, the fund’s Reserve will be the determining factor as to whether B.SELL receives any dividends. There must be in excess of 180 days worth of current B.MINE dividends for B.SELL to receive a dividend.

Important Notes and Addendums

All Fund Held In Escrow by Havelock
Havelock Investments will hold all funds in escrow. The Manager cannot withdraw funds from the Manager account to an external BTC address.

Fund Initialization
To begin the fund, the Manager will issue B.EXCH contracts at a value of 190 days of dividends at the current Difficulty. This addition of 10 days of dividends will provide a small capital buffer in case of slight Difficulty stagnation / decrease before the first fund Difficulty change calculation.

BDD Risk Factors

It is important to note that none of the three contracts offer any guarantees of return of value.

B.MINE will pay out the equivalent of a 250 GH/s miner each day up until the BDD End-Game. At the End-Game, either B.MINE’s dividend Reserve will have decreased to below the minimum threshold (0.02 BTC) due to Difficulty increase, or the fund’s reserves will be exhausted due to Difficulty stagnation / decrease. A true physical 250 GH/s Miner would instead mine until the user sells it or until it is otherwise disposed of.

B.SELL is similarly susceptible to Difficulty stagnation or decrease. If the Difficulty does not increase, or decreases over a long enough time period, there will be no further dividend payouts to B.SELL until these contracts are bought back at no value. B.SELL holders must remember as well that, in the End-game via Increase, B.MINE holders will still receive the fund Reserve (180 days of dividends) as a final payout.

Difficulty Increases and Time
Dividends will be paid at 12:00PM Eastern Time daily, based upon the Difficulty at that time.  In cases of Daylight Savings Time or any other time changes / discrepancies, 12:00PM in New York City, New York, USA will be the prevailing time.

Dividend Payout Times
All reasonable care will be taken to pay out dividends on time. In the event that the Manager is available to pay out dividends on time, for any reason, then dividends will be paid out as soon as possible afterwards. The holders of the contracts are entitled to receive dividends at the time that the Manager pays the dividends, not at the scheduled time at which dividends are normally paid.

Blockchain Forks / Errors / Roll-Backs
In the event that there is an error or discrepancy with the Bitcoin Blockchain (Blockchain), a Blockchain fork, Blockchain roll-back, or other issue that affects the Bitcoin Network Difficulty, the Manager will have discretion over what Difficulty is used to calculate dividends and NAV/U.

Contract / Calculation Discrepancy
In the event of any discrepancies in this contract or the calculations within, the Manager will perform his duties and calculations as best possible in the spirit of the contract.

Managerial Discretion
At all times, the Manager will have the discretion to make changes to this contract as necessary or desired. Buyers and holders of B.MINE, B.SELL, and B.EXCH contracts, through their purchase or possession of these contracts, agree to accept the decisions of the Manager without appeal.

Immediate Closure / Exchange Shutdown / Theft of Funds
In the unlikely case that the Exchange upon which BDD is listed must cease operations, shut down, or otherwise does not provide sufficient functionality to operate the fund, the Manager, at his sole discretion, may either re-list on another Exchange or take the contract off-exchange to a direct format. In the event of exchange insolvency, theft of BDD funds, or mysterious disappearance of BDD funds, buyers and holders of BDD contracts waive all rights of recovery against the Manager and release and hold harmless the Manager from any liability.


BDD FAQs and Other Relevant FYIs

*The calculations below use Round 1’s Hashrate (5GH instead of 250GH) and Reserve Days (200 instead of 180), but the concept remains the same*

How is the Dividend Calculated?


Over the long term, B.SELL will decrease no matter what. This reason for this is that it is matched 'against' B.MINE. If the difficulty continues to increase as it has, there will be excess capital left over after each difficulty period. This capital will be paid out to B.SELL in the form of a dividend. However, the market value of B.SELL decreases by exactly the amount of that dividend - once that dividend is paid, the fund has less capital on hand, so the Net Asset Value of the fund decreases.

If the difficulty stagnates or decreases, the likelihood that all of the fund's capital will be paid out to B.MINE is high, so B.SELL would decrease significantly.

B.SELL is a bet that people will over-pay for B.MINE, which acts as a 5GH/s mining bond - it pays out a certain dividend per day based on the Bitcoin Network Difficulty.

B.SELL may increase over the short term as it becomes more clear what this period's Difficulty Change is going to look like - right now it looks as if the Difficulty is about to increase about 21% in about three days (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty).

So, likely sometime on Saturday, the Diff will increase to an estimated 6,067,506,227 - let's use this as an example for the below.

So, if the Difficulty increased to exactly, 6,067,506,227 we would need to calculate what B.MINE would be paying out daily.

Using our formula to calculated B.MINE's Daily Dividend, we get:

5 GH/s in hashes per second * 25 BTC per Block * Number of Seconds per day * (Probability Constant that a hash will generate a block / divided by difficulty)

5000000000 * 25 * 86400 * ( ( 65535 / 2^48 ) / 6067506227)

Plug these values in and we get 0.00041442 (round to 8 digits, always round down) (http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=5000000000+*+25+*+86400+*+%28+%28+65535+%2F+2%5E48+%29+%2F+6067506227%29).

So, we know that at that new difficulty B.MINE would pay out .00041442 per Day. The fund is required to keep 200 Days of capital on hand in Reserve, so 200 * .00041442 = .082884

So, the new Reserve is .082884, that's what the fund is required to have on hand.

Right now, the NAV/U (Net Asset Value per Unit) is .09611805 as I just reported. We still have three more days of dividends to pay at the current rate, which is 0.00050221 per day. So, the NAV/U less the dividends to be paid is .09611805 - .00050221 * 3 = .09461142

So, we can estimate that our NAV/U will be .09461142 at the end of the period. To calculate the SELL dividend, just subtract the New Reserve from the estimated NAV/U:
.09461142 - .082884 = .01172742

.01172742 would be the upcoming SELL dividend based on the new Difficulty that we used.

I may have gotten too far into how to calculate the dividend here, but it's a good resource for anyone wondering how to do so.

Will there always be a SELL Dividend Issued if the Difficulty increases?

No, and here is why:

I think this is a good time to remind everyone (or make aware to those that haven't done the math) that the Difficulty needs to increase around 6.5% in order for there to be a SELL dividend issued. I say 'around' since it will be somewhat less if there are significant sales of EXCH, which increase the NAV/U.

This is because the Period is started with 200 Days of Dividends and .5% is paid out each day in dividends to MINE (1 Day / 200 Days = .5%). So, at the end of a 10-Day Period, there are only 190 days of dividends remaining at that ending Period's Difficulty.

If there is a Difficulty increase of greater than about 6.5%, then the necessary Reserve of 200 day of dividends has decreased enough to make this a non-issue. If the Difficulty has increased at less than that approximate rate (or stayed the same, or decreased), then the required Reserve is higher than the actual Reserve and there will be no SELL dividend.

TL;DR It's possible that there could be a Difficulty Increase, but no dividends will be issued to SELL for that Period due to the paid Dividends outstripping the decrease brought on by the small Difficulty Increase. But you really should be reading the whole explanation.

Happy Speculating!

-2070

Round 1's contract can be found here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=430137.msg4708343#msg4708343
Round 2's contract can be found here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=430137.msg11435846#msg11435846[/list]
7  Economy / Digital goods / [WTB] 1 Year of Spotify Premium on: November 22, 2013, 03:36:33 PM
Like the title says, I'm looking to buy 1 year of Spotify Premium with BTC - please post here or PM with your price-
8  Economy / Lending / [Completed] 11BTC Short Term Loan - Secured or Unsecured on: August 29, 2013, 06:38:32 PM
Hi all,
I'm looking for a short-term loan (10 Days) of 11BTC. I'm an active member on the Securities sub-forum, but this is my first loan request. I live in the US and currently have a very secure job, but I've promised the wife that I wouldn't deposit any more USD to BTC.  Grin

I'm currently 100% invested in ASICMiner shares on BTC-TC at the moment and would like to purchase additional shares (4 full PT shares) before the Avalon refunds hit the market (which I expect to spike the price). I've been successfully trading on BTC-TC for the past two months and recently cashed out 12BTC (shown below).

I consider this to be very low risk, as ASICMiner stock is not going to go to zero in 10 Days; any decrease in the value of these leveraged shares would be paid back via the sale of my shares held as collateral.

I'm open to either a (mostly) secured loan with 3 ASICMiner-PT shares and 40 TAT.AM shares held as collateral (current value calculated at ~8.7BTC) or an unsecured loan.

Please post terms below if this is acceptable - I'd prefer to have this done today before the stock price is up. Please let me know if you have any questions!


Value of Current Shares on BTC-TC



Recent withdrawal of 12.1BTC - Trading profit converted to USD
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