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Hi - what are the dice sites that have the lowest house edge. We from Fairlay want to add some dice games to our betting exchange and we basically want to offer the best value available.
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We are a Bitcoin only prediction market where user can predict (bet) against each other on events. From a financial point of view a bet is very similar to a insurance contract. You pay a fee (you wager an amount) and if something specific happens you get money. So we have an event wether Bistamp will be up an running (and withdrawing of course) until the end of the month. If you place a prediction on "no" you are hedging against a loss because if that happens you win at least money from the prediction: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/bad-news/
Even if you don't want to place a prediction the site can be interesting for you because it shows how likely people who are willing to place money on it think that Bitstamp will recover soon. |
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Imagine an insurance against rising difficulty.When you do the calculation whether a miner will be profitable or not you should make an assumption about the future difficulty (most interesting is a time frame of 3 months). Wouldn't it be nice to insure yourself against the possibility of a higher difficulty? The website we have in mind is very simple. First you choose an insurance amount (the amount you will be payed if the insurance condition is met). Lets say you choose 1 BTC. Now the site offers you prices for a specific difficulty at a specific time. E.g. on 01.01.2015 > 75B 0.5 BTC >100B 0.2 BTC >125B 0.1 BTC >150B 0.01 BTC The people who run this site would have done some math and calculated the likelihood of these events. This way, they come up with these prices. However - the prices would be such that the odds for the people who run the site are better than the odds for the users. The people who rund this service want to make money with it and they take a risk. Consequently, a free market is a better backbone for such a site. In such a case different people place difficulty predictions which compete against each other to offer the best price. Basically we have been running such a market place for 6 months: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/difficulty/ In theory it is already possible to insure yourself against rising difficulty. However, our design was developed for all different kinds of predictions and is not especially targeted at the needs of the insurance users. It is counterintuitive to predict/bet on something that you don't want to happen, despite the fact that this is basically what all insurance policies do. A fire insurance is basically a bet that your house will burn down. If it happens you "win" money, if not you loose the money you have "placed". Different participants will profit from an insurance site in different ways: 1. Miners who buy an insurance policy can hedge against the difficulty risk and get a more stable reward from their mining activity. 2. Miners who don't buy a insurance policies will get a realistic impression on the likelihood of the difficulty development -- because the price is not fixed, market movements are easy to discern. 3. Market makers who concern themselves with the analysis of difficulty growth can profit from the site by using their own expertise to offer prices that favor the. However, they still have to compete against others, ensuring fair prices for the users. 4. We as a marketplace take a 2% fee on the pay-out money. 5. Maybe you because we are looking for partner and would share the fees. a) Do you think there is a market for mining insurance? Under what conditions would you buy such an insurance policy? b) We are looking for partners All of our team members are very much into the crypto space. However, our mining experience is very limited. Back in September 2012 one of us bought a Single at BFL which came roughly one year later and was sold on in December 2013. And that is it. For this reason we are looking for someone who is really into mining/ profitability calculation and difficulty forecasts, ideally with a website on this topic. Moreover, if you are interested in taking the other site of the insurance bet we can help you to set up a connection to our trading engine/ API. If you are more interested in the topic some more reads on the topic:
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We recently have a lot of activity on our regular "next difficulty prediction" https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/What is interesting that users on our site are pretty sure that it will be >31B. Thus you get (at the point of writing 3.5 times your money back if it is <31B) However, most of these sites predict a difficulty of <31B. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty: 31,109,256,240 https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php: 29,611,949,922 http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php: 29,804,000,000 http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history: 30,171,493,992 So, what is your opinion? |
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Some time ago we did a comparison of different sites that estimate the next difficulty: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=592552.0Back then https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty was the best source. Lately we have noticed that user on our website probably have access to a better source. We offer predictions on the next difficulty (basically you can bet on it against other user https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/difficulty/). However, in the last days bitcoinwisdom always estiamted the next diff way > 27B. But on our site a lot of user has been willing to bet on "no" even with odds that would indicate that "no" is more likely (thus not in their favor). Now it turns out that the estimated difficulty indeed sunk on bitcoinwisdom and it is now only slightly above 27B. This leads to the conclusion that their might be a better source for difficulty estimations - any idea what it is? |
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Hi, we are a prediction market were user can create events. We just received a good suggestion for an event on GHash/50%. https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/ghash-50/The text from the link: This event will resolve to "Yes" if GHash creates in a period of 24h at least 50% of the blocks until end of September.
The exact rules are: if there is a streak of 144 blocks (about 24h) between block 311200 (July 17) and block 322144 (around September 30) with at least 72 blocks that send the new generated coins to 1CjPR7Z5ZSyWk6WtXvSFgkptmpoi4UM9BC (GHash) this event will resolve to "Yes".
We would like to accept it but we need to resolve it and we don't find a good source for it. Can you help? We ask the same question on reddit already, no help so far: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2azdxq/hi_rbitcoin_we_are_a_prediction_market_were_user/ |
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Fairlay - prediction market/betting exchange
if you like pinnaclesport's odds you will love our odds We are the Bitcoin only betting exchange that brings you the best odds in the industry. Our combination of a 0% fee policy, strong market makers, and automation friendly UI (API) are the foundation of our outstanding odds and liquidity. - Betting exchange - bet against users, not against the house
- 0.00% fees on sport bets
- provably best odds
- No. 1 user voted sports book (18.05.2015)
- we have strong market makers that provide better odds than pinnacle with about the same liquidity
- no account needed
- API for market makers and other professionals or hackers: fairlay.com/api
 Welcome to Fairlay
 We have a big range of sport events
 But also stuff around the Bitcoin world
 You don't need an account to place a bet
 You could also use the API that allows our market makers to always offer the best odds
 And we usually beat them all! Compare the odds for yourself!Contact us:
Twitter: @fairlayDev Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/fairlayReddit: https://www.reddit.com/user/TeamFairlay/Read about us on:
Cryptocoinnews http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/interview-fairlay-prediction-market-replace-bitcoin-bookies/2014/02/15Fairlay.com doesn’t want to be another automated bookie, Fairlay seeks to crowd-source information by providing a totally open prediction market. Functioning more like a conditional exchange, the website not only allows users to bet but to see public confidence on various bitcoin and altcoin related events, as well as sports, and YouTube views. Coindesk: http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoins-predict-future"How prediction markets
In a typical prediction market, users make a bet, in some form or another. On Fairlay, for example, a user may simply state a prediction, and give odds, and wait for another user to match that bet." or Bitcoin.de: (German) http://bitcoinblog.de/2014/06/30/mit-bitcoins-auf-wm-spiele-wetten/What users say about us:
These are great odds.
great odds, looking good, I'm trying..
Nice website, love it.
...
Keep up the good work!
Ive made a good chunk on the difficulty bets.
Fairlay - 5 I had a very unique experience with this site: Around a week ago, my computer was infected with a trojan that presumably stole all my sessions and cookies. The attacker proceeded to sift through my various online accounts and requested withdrawals to his address on all my bitcoin-related accounts; I had around 2BTC on fairlay. When I noticed this the next day, I immediately sent an email to Fairlay asking not to process the withdrawal. I received an email back stating that the withdrawal would not be sent. Unfortunately, likely through a miscommunication or the like, the withdrawal did go through and the attacker received my 2BTC, I was really devastated. To my surprise however, after I emailed support about this, the owner of the site claimed responsibility for the lack of miscommunication and completely reimbursed me the 2BTC, out of his own pocket. So that should tell you how they treat their customers  Otherwise, I like the site. In general I like the idea of a bitcoin betting exchange. In addition, the commission is really low (2% on net winnings), and the interface is really clean and user friendly. fairlay = 5 (Good looking site, functional all the time, good odds, helpful staff)
Fairlay = 4
i like the competitive way of betting against other users.
good usability : seeing the percentages, being able to scroll up and down.
Fairly 4.5 they have potential.
ty @fairlay. the odds are indeed great
I have sent the funds that I withdrew back to my account. I can't miss prices like yours. That would be cutting my nose off to spite my face.   https://epicenterbitcoin.com/podcast/058/
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Could you help us with the decision to choose the best front page?  Percentages – upper boundary (the odds you would get)  Percentages – lower boundary (the odds some one else want’s to have)  Plain bars  bars with percentages  bars with odds We need your help - what is your favorite version, vote here: http://blog.fairlay.com/2014/05/could-you-help-us-make-a-decision/ |
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This should be a collection (and later a analysis and comparison) of sites predicting the difficulty.
| Algorithm based | 06.05.2014 | 07.05.2014 | 08.05.2014 | 09.05.2014 | 10.05.2014 | 11.06.2014 | RESULT | | https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty | 8,762,705,629 | 8,899,837,599 | 8,798,697,249 | 8,784,935,930 | 8,850,210,274 | 8,989,467,782 | 8,853,416,309 | | https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php | 8,532,130,046 | 8,626,540,337 | 8,673,745,483 | 8,716,150,105 | 8,816,961,094 | 8,885,768,594 | 8,853,416,309 | | http://bitcoindifficulty.com | 8,312,271,851 | 8,430,367,515 | 8,490,911,314 | 8,568,015,201 | 8,685,202,565 | 8,871,741,554 | 8,853,416,309 | | http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php | 8,926,573,042 | 8,926,573,042 | 8,926,573,042 | 8,926,573,042 | 8,926,573,042 | 8,926,573,042 | 8,853,416,309 | | http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history | 9,040,985,512 | 9,040,985,512 | 9,120,994,233 | 9,120,994,233 | 9,120,994,233 | 9,201,002,955 | 8,853,416,309 |
| Algorithm based round 2 | 13.05.2014 | 14.05.2014 | 15.05.2014 | 16.05.2014 | 17.05.2014 | 19.05.2014 | 20.05.2014 | 21.05.2014 | | https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty | 10,030,821,324 | 10,028,867,813 | 10,208,652,199 | 10,434,069,047 | 10,538,783,277 | 10,438,507,666 | 10,677,431,706 | 10,586,093,942 | | https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php | 9,568,772,347 | 9,818,438,687 | 10,200,906,271 | 10,463,852,736 | 10,326,624,783 | 10,325,739,441 | 10,465,623,419 | 10,435,521,803 | | http://bitcoindifficulty.com | 8,863,020,907 | 9,057,771,301 | 9,377,412,197 | 9,811,836,627 | 9,818,273,212 | 9,850,345,488 | 10,062,752,940 | 10,177,117,543 | | http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history | 10,358,497,081 | 10,092,894,592 | 10,269,962,918 | 10,447,031,244 | 10,358,497,081 | 10,358,497,081 | 10,447,031,244 | 10,358,497,081 |
Market based (short term): Market based (long term): Blogs/ Forum: Would be happy to complete this collection.[/list] |
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Wir geben zu, bisher ist das eine steile These und wir können sie noch nicht belegen: aber entweder stimmt sie oder ihr könnt Bitcoins verdienen indem ihr gegen die Vorhersagen wettet und wenn euere besser ist dann verdient ihr Geld. Fairlay.com ist ein "prediction market" auf dem User gegeneinander auf Vorhersagen setzen können. Dadurch bildet sich durch Markt Mechanismen ein Preis der eine gute Vorhersage für die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Ereignisses darstellt. Die Vorhersage über die Entwicklung der difficulty ist übrigens der entscheidende Faktor der entscheidet ob sich der Kauf eines Miners lohnt. (Neben der Vorhersage über die Lieferzeit und Zuverlässigkeit des Herstellers). Der Bitcoin Preis kann vollständig vernachlässigt werden. Den bevor man sich fragt ob ein Minerkauf mehr € einbringt sollte man sich erstmal fragen ob der Miner mehr Bitcoins einbringen wird als ich mir zum Zeitpunkt der Kaufes für den Preis den Miners kaufen könnte. Und für diese Frage ist ausschließlich der Lieferzeitpunkt und die difficulty Entwicklung entscheidend. Ok, genug der Theorie, hier der Link: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/ |
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If someone would give you some money and you had to put it on yes or now - wether the difficulty would be above 10B on June 15 what would you do? Give some reasons for your decision - write a blog article about it. You have to come up with a percentage in your post. Post here or make send us a link to your post and your opinion. We choose the bets post and publish it (if you agree) on blog.fairlay.com. Furthermore we bet for you (or give it to your account and you do) 100mBTC on this corresponding bet: https://www.fairlay.com/bet/registered/new/bitcoin-difficulty-10b/ at the ratio your % suggests. If you say it is 50% then we bet 50mBTC on yes and on 50mBTC on no. The odds would be the corresponding odds * 1.05. In the example the corresponding odds to 50% are 2. Thus two bets of 50mBTC with odds of 2*1.05 = 2.1. If this is confusing - forget it - we will guide you - all we want to now is a good assumption wether this will happen or not.Edit: we will choose a winner on March 26. Edit2: If more people post articles that look similar - we will choose obv. the oldest. |
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