Collection and comparison of difficulty prediction

[fairlay]

This should be a collection (and later a analysis and comparison) of sites predicting the difficulty.

Algorithm based	06.05.2014	07.05.2014	08.05.2014	09.05.2014	10.05.2014	11.06.2014	RESULT
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty	8,762,705,629	8,899,837,599	8,798,697,249	8,784,935,930	8,850,210,274	8,989,467,782	8,853,416,309
https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php	8,532,130,046	8,626,540,337	8,673,745,483	8,716,150,105	8,816,961,094	8,885,768,594	8,853,416,309
http://bitcoindifficulty.com	8,312,271,851	8,430,367,515	8,490,911,314	8,568,015,201	8,685,202,565	8,871,741,554	8,853,416,309
http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php	8,926,573,042	8,926,573,042	8,926,573,042	8,926,573,042	8,926,573,042	8,926,573,042	8,853,416,309
http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history	9,040,985,512	9,040,985,512	9,120,994,233	9,120,994,233	9,120,994,233	9,201,002,955	8,853,416,309

Algorithm based round 2	13.05.2014	14.05.2014	15.05.2014	16.05.2014	17.05.2014	19.05.2014	20.05.2014	21.05.2014
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty	10,030,821,324	10,028,867,813	10,208,652,199	10,434,069,047	10,538,783,277	10,438,507,666	10,677,431,706	10,586,093,942
https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php	9,568,772,347	9,818,438,687	10,200,906,271	10,463,852,736	10,326,624,783	10,325,739,441	10,465,623,419	10,435,521,803
http://bitcoindifficulty.com	8,863,020,907	9,057,771,301	9,377,412,197	9,811,836,627	9,818,273,212	9,850,345,488	10,062,752,940	10,177,117,543
http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history	10,358,497,081	10,092,894,592	10,269,962,918	10,447,031,244	10,358,497,081	10,358,497,081	10,447,031,244	10,358,497,081

Market based (short term):

• http://www.futureblock.com/
  parimutuel betting system, thus no real prediction market
  

Market based (long term):

• https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=B.MINE
  
• https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/difficulty/
  This is our site, thus others should evaluate it
• https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-network-difficulty
  very low activity
  
• http://bitbet.us/bet/677/bitcoin-network-difficulty-14bn-on-bastille-day/
  it is only one example for difficulty related bets, parimutuel betting system, thus no real prediction market

Blogs/ Forum:

• http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.tr/2014/02/917-estimating-future-bitcoin-mining.html
  awesome
  

• https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=387533.0
  focus on collecting information of expected miner shipping
  

Would be happy to complete this collection.[/list]

[odolvlobo]

market-based long term: https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=B.MINE

[kickbit]

Hey,

http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history

I'm improving it's functionality. And it has good accuracy of estimation.

[fairlay]

Thanks for the two additions.

kickbit: Can you explain how you came up with your prediction?

[tuneman1980]

Take a look at http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/difficultytracker.php

[kickbit]

Thanks for the two additions.

kickbit: Can you explain how you came up with your prediction?

Yes, it described here: http://mining-profit.com/faq

Q: How does the tool calculate the growth of difficulty, exchange rate and other values?
A: The calculation of all the values, which have to be forecasted, is based on historical data using statisctical methods and regression analysis.

It depends on growth dynamics.

[fairlay]

Take a look at http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/difficultytracker.php

Nice site - but I can not find a prediction?

[fairlay]

We started a prediction on the next difficulty:
https://www.fairlay.com/bet/registered/new/next-difficulty-8-9b/

Maybe we will create some "show accounts" for each site that will predict on fairlay according to the prediction of the site. Would be interesting what site would make the most profit.

[fairlay]

@kickbit

interesting, while all other predictions has gone down (more or less) yours is going up. Could you explain why?

I am excited to see the outcome.

[fairlay]

I wonder how http://bitcoindifficulty.com/ comes up with there number.

The way cryptanalys.is seems to me like a very conservative estimate because it did not expect growth thus I wonder why the prediction of http://bitcoindifficulty.com is even below.

[fairlay]

Ok - finally the outcome is: 8,853,416,309 and the winner from this round is clearly bitcoinwisdom.com

[fairlay]

I guess it is a good time to start to discuss the reliabilities of the predictions:

Someone just placed a prediction of 100mBTC on: next difficulty NOT > 10B on our site http://www.fairlay.com
According to the current data this is very unlikely to happen. I wonder if anyone is willing to take the other side.

The drawback: you have to spend 20mBTC to win one 1mBTC:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-10b/

[fairlay]

We recently have a lot of activity on our regular "next difficulty prediction"

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/

bet against difficulty >31B at odds of 3.5. Note that from the current difficulty data odds should be more like 2. (50%/50%).

Some sources that predict the difficulty and their current prediction:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty: 31,109,256,240
https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php: 29,611,949,922
http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php: 29,804,000,000
http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history: 30171493992

Thus all sites (in exception of bitcoinwisdom) predict a difficulty of <31B that would bring you 3.5 times your money back.