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Author Topic: Collection and comparison of difficulty prediction  (Read 1725 times)
fairlay
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May 02, 2014, 02:45:40 AM
 #1

    This should be a collection (and later a analysis and comparison) of sites predicting the difficulty.



Algorithm based06.05.201407.05.201408.05.201409.05.201410.05.201411.06.2014RESULT
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty8,762,705,629 8,899,837,599 8,798,697,249 8,784,935,930 8,850,210,274 8,989,467,782 8,853,416,309
https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php8,532,130,046 8,626,540,337 8,673,745,483 8,716,150,105 8,816,961,094 8,885,768,594 8,853,416,309
http://bitcoindifficulty.com8,312,271,8518,430,367,5158,490,911,3148,568,015,2018,685,202,5658,871,741,554 8,853,416,309
http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php8,926,573,0428,926,573,0428,926,573,0428,926,573,0428,926,573,0428,926,573,042 8,853,416,309
http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history9,040,985,5129,040,985,5129,120,994,2339,120,994,2339,120,994,2339,201,002,955 8,853,416,309

Algorithm based round 2 13.05.201414.05.201415.05.201416.05.201417.05.201419.05.201420.05.201421.05.2014
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty10,030,821,32410,028,867,81310,208,652,19910,434,069,047 10,538,783,277 10,438,507,666 10,677,431,706 10,586,093,942
https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php 9,568,772,347 9,818,438,687 10,200,906,271 10,463,852,736 10,326,624,783 10,325,739,441 10,465,623,419 10,435,521,803
http://bitcoindifficulty.com 8,863,020,907 9,057,771,301 9,377,412,197 9,811,836,627 9,818,273,212 9,850,345,488 10,062,752,940 10,177,117,543
http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history 10,358,497,081 10,092,894,592 10,269,962,918 10,447,031,244 10,358,497,081 10,358,497,081 10,447,031,244 10,358,497,081


Market based (short term):


Market based (long term):


Blogs/ Forum:


Would be happy to complete this collection.[/list]

www.fairlay.com - the Bitcoin prediction market - the future of reliable information
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May 06, 2014, 05:19:32 AM
 #2

market-based long term: https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=B.MINE

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kickbit
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May 06, 2014, 08:47:31 AM
 #3

Hey,

http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history

I'm improving it's functionality. And it has good accuracy of estimation.

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fairlay
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May 06, 2014, 03:19:24 PM
 #4

Thanks for the two additions.

kickbit: Can you explain how you came up with your prediction?

www.fairlay.com - the Bitcoin prediction market - the future of reliable information
tuneman1980
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May 06, 2014, 03:21:52 PM
 #5

Take a look at http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/difficultytracker.php

http://cryptocoinstats.com/

BTC: 19YQqtEdtuWhT6nk6ArBgMTiKMEjoJ5eww  LTC: Li1RLpZm8Rx7txSnQdvZvtLMsd4XDN2vMJ  FTC: 6qAU4vtyf9LPW4yV4m4Vx1jm4ZkXJHTFP7
kickbit
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May 06, 2014, 03:47:03 PM
 #6

Thanks for the two additions.

kickbit: Can you explain how you came up with your prediction?

Yes, it described here: http://mining-profit.com/faq

Q: How does the tool calculate the growth of difficulty, exchange rate and other values?
A: The calculation of all the values, which have to be forecasted, is based on historical data using statisctical methods and regression analysis.

It depends on growth dynamics.

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fairlay
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May 06, 2014, 07:36:40 PM
 #7


Nice site - but I can not find a prediction?

www.fairlay.com - the Bitcoin prediction market - the future of reliable information
fairlay
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May 07, 2014, 04:32:49 PM
 #8

We started a prediction on the next difficulty:
https://www.fairlay.com/bet/registered/new/next-difficulty-8-9b/

Maybe we will create some "show accounts" for each site that will predict on fairlay according to the prediction of the site. Would be interesting what site would make the most profit.

www.fairlay.com - the Bitcoin prediction market - the future of reliable information
fairlay
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May 08, 2014, 02:44:36 PM
 #9

@kickbit

interesting, while all other predictions has gone down (more or less) yours is going up. Could you explain why?

I am excited to see the outcome.

www.fairlay.com - the Bitcoin prediction market - the future of reliable information
fairlay
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May 09, 2014, 02:56:22 PM
 #10

I wonder how http://bitcoindifficulty.com/ comes up with there number.

The way cryptanalys.is seems to me like a very conservative estimate because it did not expect growth thus I wonder why the prediction of http://bitcoindifficulty.com is even below.

www.fairlay.com - the Bitcoin prediction market - the future of reliable information
fairlay
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May 13, 2014, 06:30:32 PM
 #11

Ok - finally the outcome is: 8,853,416,309 and the winner from this round is clearly bitcoinwisdom.com

www.fairlay.com - the Bitcoin prediction market - the future of reliable information
fairlay
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May 19, 2014, 06:52:52 PM
 #12

I guess it is a good time to start to discuss the reliabilities of the predictions:

Someone just placed a prediction of 100mBTC on: next difficulty NOT > 10B on our site http://www.fairlay.com
According to the current data this is very unlikely to happen. I wonder if anyone is willing to take the other side.

The drawback: you have to spend 20mBTC to win one 1mBTC:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-10b/




www.fairlay.com - the Bitcoin prediction market - the future of reliable information
fairlay
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September 06, 2014, 08:29:29 PM
 #13

We recently have a lot of activity on our regular "next difficulty prediction"

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/

bet against difficulty >31B at odds of 3.5. Note that from the current difficulty data odds should be more like 2. (50%/50%).

Some sources that predict the difficulty and their current prediction:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty: 31,109,256,240
https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php: 29,611,949,922
http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php: 29,804,000,000
http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history: 30171493992

Thus all sites (in exception of bitcoinwisdom) predict a difficulty of <31B that would bring you 3.5 times your money back.

www.fairlay.com - the Bitcoin prediction market - the future of reliable information
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