Everyone is always telling you to just HODL through the ups and downs and Don't day trade.

But isn't HODLing a form of trading it it's own right? When you HODL you are always betting that it will  go up eventually, no matter how much it has fallen.
Wouldn't it be better to set profit and loss targets and if it is reached, sell? The one thing that is consistent in derivative markets is that they go up and down, never just in one direction.

So you may miss out on some possible gains, but is that a bad thing if you have locked in profits. It is not as though you can't get back on the bus.

It has occurred to me if l HODL, l could be no different to gambling. Imagine going to the casino and betting on Black continuously,  it doesn't matter if l win or loose as l have never set an exit target, so l keep betting until there is nothing left.

If the market is rising then HODLing is great, but is it so good when your coins just fell 50%...I don't think so!

Wondering what the general opinion is on the next pull back in the price of Bitcoin.

I was think that it would likely find support at $7850, before moving back up again. I was just using  Fib levels off the high and low, what are other people thinking and how did you come up with  the number ?

Well this is what the insightful Tone Vays claims...

He claims that ETH, DASH, shit 99.5% of all the ALTS are scams and the only coin that will survive is Bitcoin.

So l guess we should all sell our Alts now!

My friend and l like to disagree on Tone, l am not a fan, but he thinks the sun shines out of his arse.

I have tried to watch his video, but just find he is so full of himself, l end up turning them off within a few minutes. From what l can tell he does get some calls right, but just as many will cost you money. And obviously l realise he is not providing financial advise, just education.

He calls just about all altcoins a scam and he did do a series of videos on some of them, discrediting some coins. If you had bought them all at the time he released the video's you would of made a 100 x return. He did tell people that Bitcoin Cash was going to zero, which l know encourage a lot of people to sell, again just before it rocketed up.

Am l just taking a negative view because l think he is a bit of a wanker or is my friend just looking through rose colored sun glasses?

Would love to know what people think of him.

Is this going to have a negative effect on all of the ICO platforms, like ETH, NEO, EOS etc?

Below is part of an article that outline how exchanges and developers will possibly be classified as money transmitters and be subject to laws involving AML & KYC. I am concerned that this is just the begining.



The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) published a letter Tuesday that indicates the U.S. agency will apply its regulations to those who conduct initial coin offerings (ICOs).

In the letter, which was sent to U.S. Senator Ron Wyden last month, FinCEN's assistant secretary for legislative affairs, Drew Maloney, explained that both developers and exchanges involved in the sale of an ICO-derived token would be liable to register as a money transmitter and comply with the relevant statutes around anti-money laundering and know-your-customer (KYC) rules.

The letter reads:

"...a developer that sells convertible virtual currency, including in the form of ICO coins or tokens, in exchange for another type of value that substitutes for currency is a money transmitter and must comply with AML/CFT requirements that apply to this type of [money services business]. An exchange that sells ICO coins or tokens, or exchanges them for other virtual currency, fiat currency, or other value that subsitutes for currency, would typically also be a money transmitter."

Full Article https://www.coindesk.com/fincen-money-transmitter-rules-apply-ico-developers-exchanges/

I am starting to wonder whether lightening network really can do what they say.

There are so many negatives to prevent it from working:

Can't keep your funds in cold storage, which creates a real security risk.
Wallet must be open to receive the funds
May not be a channel open for the transaction to reach your wallet.

Those are just some, but probably the biggest concern is that if you are using your wallet as a node/hub for the funds to hop through then there is a good
chance that you could be seen to be involved in the transfer of money and depending on the jurisdiction you reside in, may be subject to anti-money laundering laws that require you to KYC the people sending and receiving the funds or even worse comply with anti terrorism laws.

Governments all around the world are working on ways to legislate the crypto environment and l can't see them letting us use our wallets for the transfer of money and not knowing from who to who!

If they really want Bitcoin to be cheaper and faster then they should just implement Segwit2x

Is $9350 the bottom and the start of the next wave up?  It was a strong retracement level, if it break we could be looking at $8800 as the next one.
I am hopeful of it holding, just wondering what others were thinking?

I do believe that 5000 is a good possibility before we start our next run up.

 Elliot wave has hit the 5 wave at $9000 a couple of days ago and now a retracement is likely to happen all the way down to just under 5000.
There will be some bounces on the way down, like yesterdays 700 dollar one, but the direct from here is down. Makes a really good buying op

After the last couple of days l have had in this market l refuse to use the term HODL anymore. It is just too nice a term for what we are presently experiencing. I believe we need to ad a new letter to it HOFDL - " Hold on For Fucking dear life " . Pretty much sums up what is necessary in this market.

Anyone got a clue where we are heading in the short term? There is so much FUD out there and misdirection, it's hard to work out what is happening.

Personally looking at my portfolio l found that the best performing Alts were all associated in some way with NEO. I only have a small selection of Alts and was wondering if anyone had a different perspective of what survived the best for them?

Sure we have all taken a bit of a hammering in the last few days. But as crashes go it's not really that big compared to previous ones.

Bitcoin has spectacularly 'died' several times

📉 - 94% June-November 2011 from $32 to $2 because of MtGox hack

📉 - 36% June 2012 from $7 to $4 Linod hack

📉 - 79% April 2013 from $266 to $54. MTGox stopped trading

📉 - 87% from $1166 to $170 November 2013 to January 2015

📉 - 49% Feb 2014 MTGox tanks

📉 - 40% September 2017 from $5000 to $2972 China ban

📉 - 55% January 2018 Bitcoin ban FUD. from $19000 to 8500
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7uqa54/lesson_history_of_bitcoin_crashes/

The Lightning Network concept sounds like a great idea - Faster transaction and real cheap fee's.

My understanding is that each wallet that the transfer of Bitcoin goes through , has to have the same balance of BTC or more, as that of the coins being sent. I don't see a problem with that as long as all wallets have at least one Bitcoin in them, but how many wallets actually have that?

I don't know how accurate this is but it seems to correspond with previous estimates l have seen, in regards to wallet balances.
http://www.blocklink.info/distributions.html

Based on this info you can see that approx 90% of all wallets have less than 1 Bitcoin in them. 60% of them have less then 0.10 BTC. If this is the case how will the lightning network work effectively?

A transfer of 0.20 BTC will mean that 70% of all wallets will not have enough funds in them, for the hops to happen.

Am l missing something?

I currently own all of these coins and am wondering what people think of each of them and why is one better then the other?

Today an article appeared in one of Australia's national newspapers, the Financial Review - Title " Push for Secret Search Warrant Panned" - The article went on to discuss the use of Secret Search Warrant's and how they would allow law enforcement to search a persons premises and seize evidence without the need to tell the owner or occupier for months, years or if at all, so as to avoid tipping them off to the fact they under investigation.

Currently it is only meant to be used for terrorism investigations, but this change would allow them to carryout investigations for any potential crime that carried a sentence of 7 years or more.

My concern is who polices the term "potential crime" and how far will they stretch the guide lines to spy on anyone?

So as an individual are my rights to privacy being taken away from me, if laws such as these are passed?

Having an anonymous cryptocurrency to send and receive private transactions, now makes a lot more sense.

I feel this will just be the beginning of laws like this being passed. So it is important that we protect our anonymity with coins like DeepOnion, PIVX & Monero etc.

I would welcome other members thoughts.