Bitcoin has made a nice push back up. The next hurdle is for it to get back above 530 and 540s and hold up there. From that point, buyers will have stepped back in to hold control. Bitcoin is back in the upper Fibonacci range (which is one of the primary tools professional currency traders use), and Bollinger Bands being the second primary tool. So being in the upper Fib range is a very positive sign.

With volume being traditionally light over the weekend, be cautious, but optimistic shooting for that 530-540 range.

News has been mixed, but generally upbeat with more and more adoption and ATM news. This is good for the underlying health of bitcoin long-term. As for more stupid bubble-talk, just because you write for an online website, it doesn't directly correlate with intelligence.

Have a great weekend!

-cj-

Bitcoin did it! The scenario I drew yesterday came true, almost exactly they way I drew it. Broke above, and buyers started to step back in. Now if it can sustain this roll, it means that Bitcoin has shaken off (once again) threats from government : )

Included are basic upbeat news of more adoption of bitoin and eBay/PayPal/Braintree taking Bitcoin will be amazing. Like I've always said, the more people are buying *and spending* bitcoin, the healthier it's going to be in the long run. So it's all looking good from this stand point.

From here, let's see Bitcoin push through 510-520 and then it's on up.

Fingers crossed for the ever so resilient Bitcoin...

-cj-

Bitcoin has been selling off in a stair-stepping fashion. Which means it's a controlled selling (or converting to cash). This is a good sign which means that it's orderly changing of hands. So hopefully at some point soon, the price will induce buyers to step in, and begin the reverse stair-climbing.

There is also talk beginning to spread on using Bitcoin for international money transfer. If this continues to take off, it will infuse Bitcoin with a new culture of buyers. Combine this with more and more ways to spend Bitcoin and you get a fresh set of buyers to push prices up.

Below is the latest report, and I've drawn lines to show triggers to show that buyers have begun to step back in.

-cj-

With the push down of Bitcoin recently, I was asked what it would take for Bitcoin to firm up a recovery. Basically as you can see in the report below, with Confluence being red (most traders looking to sell), Bitcoin needs to make it back above the line I've drawn. But in addition to getting above that line, it needs to hold above the line. Then confluence will begin to shift green again, and long-term buying will resume. So keep an eye on the 520 mark, especially heading into Europe later this evening.

News has been mixed, with the traditional governments issuing "warnings" against a new currency. No surprise there. Other than that the news has been full of new announcements of where you can spend Bitcoin (which is good for the underlying Bitcoin economy). This is especially true with Overstock showing a healthy spend from Bitcoin.

Have a great evening, and let's hope Bitcoin resumes it's climb back above 1000 : )

cj

Bitcoin has continued it's uptrend. You can see in the chart below that it has done the important things so far. One it broke through 850 (a critical number) with strength. Then came normal profit taking (selling), which was followed buy fresh buying (and more importantly) printing a new high.

Once again there is new profit-taking off the new high. So the next step for bitcoin is to push above the 880 number to continue to make new highs. If bitcoin stalls at the 880 number, then it's an indication that the major buyers have been exhausted (used up) temporarily.

Price always needs to rest. Either by pulling back, or by moving sideways. So shortly we'll see if it has enough energy to continue to push new highs.

The news has generally been upbeat, and bitcoin has shed off the prior's year news and pushed back above the 850 mark, and with gusto no less.

Bitcoin ATM's moving into Hong Kong, Taiwan, then Europe. American politicians looking for donations in bitcoin, and a new anonymizer for bitcoin transactions on the horizon, the long term prognosis of bitcoin looks better and better.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin's latest push has held in the upper 50% of the push (above the 850 mark). This is what you want to see if you expect the move to be sustained.

After than move, price has been brisk and volatile (not a bad thing), and pushing outside its high-bound Fibonacci levels. All good signs.

Let's see what Asia and Europe have to offer in the next few hours.

More to come : )

cj

Sorry there haven't been more updates posted to the forum, we've been swamped moving over some new technology to the bitcoin side. Hopefully it will be wrapped up this week, and I'll post more regular updated.

It seems that with a little bit of holiday cheer, bitcoin has managed to break out into a slight uptrend. The news is generally upbeat (in the fact that it's seriously caught the attention of mainstream media and economists).

All PR is good PR, remember : )

cj

[Now the big question is:]

We warned our traders yesterday that bitcoin's recovery would halt at 750-800, but that's okay. For a recovery to be sustained it needs to rest (as strange as that sounds). It more has to do with a technical flushing of orders out of the system, blah blah blah. But the bottom line is that what has happened is a normal phase 1 recovery of prices.

Now the big question is: will bitcoin push on to phase two, and move to the next level of recovery. There are several critical points for bitcoin to make to continue.

And in the news still has bubble talk, but they are going to teach people how to mine bitcoin on Bloomberg Television (okay, stop snickering), the Native Americans want to really carve out their own world and move to bitcoin as their currency, whereas online poker and Overstock.com will start taking bitcoin shortly : )

Overstock is the first hint of a big e-tailer accepting bitcoin. This progression alone will add to bitcoin's long-term prognosis.

<Begin Pointification>
             Stay safe over the weekend, control your risk, and buy bonds, er, bitcoin
             (but only in small risk controlled purchases).
</End Pontification>  

 ...   and on with the pretty pictures  : )

cj

The news and reaction is obvious. Yesterday, and all night the major trade signals have been to sell other than a couple of short reaction longs from bounces.

The Chinese government basically told the Chinese citizens to get the hell out of Bitcoin. But come on, no surprise here. Chinese people (those with money) work all week long on ways to get money out of China. So with the front door being closed by the chinese government, they will poke other holes in the Great Firewall of China (like they always do.) It's just a matter of time before underground cash businesses get set up to sell bitcoin, and numerous other mechanisms get set up. Rich people LOVE money mechanisms independent of banking. Bitcoin is the ultimate vehicle. So it's just a matter of time.

So what until then?

The big question is how much of the Chinese flush is over with, or is there more flushing. Once the flush is finished, Americans and EUROpe/South America can begin stepping up. The flood of buying this morning was when New York banking opened. So we'll know more after the Asia session and beginning of Euro banking.

I'll check back in later during the Asian trading session, and until then,

Stay Safe :  )

cj

It looks like bitcoin is trying to resume its recovery. It has broken through it's down-trendline, and with some umph, which is a great sign. It still has some hurdles to overcome, but it's late, NY is shut down, and Asia is just beginning to stir. So fingers crossed, it will resume it's trend.

News is positive with more investment talk, and bitcoin as a currency. So much so that the physical bitcoin vendor has been shut down in the United States (a little silly, but goes to show it's visible to more than a few enthusiasts.) These are all positive signs for the future.

Stay safe, control your risk, and the weekend is near   :  )

cj

It seems after another tumultuous weekend, Bitcoin is back on the recovery path. News also seems to be settling in, especially with JP Morgan Chase filing a patent for another altcoin : )

cj

It just happened again. Bitcoin just pushed hard again through 850 and lower. Big selling.

*THEN* bitcointalk goes down.

It happened the last time when bitcointalk was hijacked.

So, the question is -- Is this a coordinated effort?

I'm not suggesting bitcointalk is involved, but is someone who is dumping, not want people talking about it while it's happened??

Always suspicious : )

cj

Last night we put our traders on strong caution (do not buy), and unfortunately it was correct, and it's still on. Bitcoin is struggling. When Asia clocked in, it pushed bitcoin lower, Europe woke up buying bitcoin, then New York started selling again. Buying does not seem to be strong enough yet.

None of our systems are screaming BUY yet.

News is mixed with the debate between Bank of America, China and now Ron Paul (I think he just wants headlines.) There are several scenarios for bitcoin to recover, let's see how they play out.

Bitcoin is attempting it's recovery but showing weakness. I believe bitcoin has a chance to recover, and resume it's climb to a million dollars is buying steps in strongly. I believe China was a scare, but more like a startle. Chinese can still buy and sell bitcoins, but not through banks without Anti-Money-Laundering regulations in place (which is not unusual). Every country has done the same for the most part.

Plus I think Bank of America is mitigating the Chinese "startle". Let's see how it plays out.

As always, control your risk!

: )

cj


*Note: Long Term Trend is showing as Green/Up, but it is rolling over. Confluence has turned.

Unfortunately last night's warnings came true. In fact the trendline break and confirmation (similar to the triangle break pattern I sent before) confirmed the collapse literally hours before the actual drop in price. Many would say the drop in price was due to the news of China, etc.

Technical Traders argue that there are always "people in the know", or insiders (possibly inside the Chinese government) who tell their friends and family, "sell your bitcoin now". The fingerprints of these "insiders" can be seen on the chart, and warn technical traders before the news actually comes out.

This has been true of almost every significant drop in price in history. Whether it was from insider trading, or the Technical Analysis god's taking pity on us chart watchers, nobody knows. But the fingerprints are almost always there.

As for bitcoin pushing back up. there are several technical things that need to happen before bitcoin can resume it's uptrend and recovery in a steady fashion.

* Disclaimer: The severe warnings mentioned in this post, only went out to our traders last night. I will always publicly only post moderate cautions, because I never want to be accused of causing a panic.

================================
   EXAMPLE OF A "GUARDED" TRADE
================================

*I know that buying and (especially) selling is not popular on this board. But money is money. And we should be protective of our money. So I'm posting this despite the fact that it might not be popular. But it's important to understand that you DO NOT have to watch in horror (like a deer in headlights) if something doesn't go your way. Investors need not read any further. But if you are a regular trader, Job #1 is to protect your capital.

*This was originally meant for others to read, but I'm re-posting it here because it can benefit all active traders.

Given the warnings I issued, and mention of Guarded, Protective, Defensive, etc, here is what I mean.

I just took a quick trade off the 1 Hour Signal. It said go long. But, there were warnings of caution.

So I still took the trade. As I show in the graphic, I DAMN WELL EXPECT the market to do what I want, and I expect it RIGHT NOW. Okay, I'll give it a tiny wiggle room, but especially with warnings on, not a whole lot of wiggle room.

So I enter the trade on the 1 Hour Signal, I don't get what I expect, so *I'M OUT*. In this case I made a few bucks, but even if I lost a few, or broke even -- because I PROTECTED MY MONEY. In the end, that is MY JOB. I'm happy to get lucky, but I'll be protective until I get those rocket lucky moves that make a fortune. This could have been one, but it didn't.

Hope Mode = Evil. No go, then get out. Know where your limits are, know where the limits of the trade are.

Bitcoin has been steadily climbing towards its prior highs, and is now flirting with it. News has soured a bit with more talk about tulips, taxes, and government intervention. A little bit of talk about hacking, but light. What you want to see is confidence being instilled in the general public so they will adopt bitcoin.

Sentiment Analysis Engine of news articles and posts is indicating a shift to the negative as well.

The big issue at hand is the prior highs. Going into the Asian market sessions shortly, and with lighter volume, will enough buying step in to support the prior highs.

News is mixed. A few more references suggesting bitcoin is speculative like Tulip Mania (although I don't really agree, as Bitcoin is showing an adoption growth curve as opposed to speculative). But either way, news is mixed (as you can see below).

In addition, our Sentiment Analysis Engine is now online for bitcoin, so I'll be reporting that when I can as well. Currently based on the last 123 Articles/Posts analyzed, the sentiment is somewhat negative (which means, there are more news articles/posts speaking negatively about bitcoin, then positively). You can see that somewhat reflected in the articles listed below.

Bitcoin has pushed passed it's 1175 congestion zone into the 1200s which is a good sign. This happened when New York woke up, so it is most likely to large players purchasing bitcoin to satisfy business needs.

Hope everyone's day is going well, and will try to update thus report later this evening.

: )

cj