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1  Economy / Speculation / Bitcoin's Proof of Work Validated and Vindicated on: April 02, 2015, 06:19:23 PM
Some of Bitcoin's competitors use a Proof of Stake model to attempt to achieve distributed consensus.  This paper now definitively proves that distributed consensus is broken in Proof of Stake algorithms.

It is possible, by requiring stake to be bonded for many consecutive blocks, and by choosing signers
using randomness extracted by long-past (in blocktime) blocks, to force the attacks described above
to rewrite long stretches of history. This is often described as “preventing short-range attacks”.
It is clear that this does not address the costless simulation issue; after all, if it’s easy to change
history, it’s easy to change long stretches of history. However, proponents argue that since for
an honestly-created history, long stretches of blocktime correspond to long stretches of real time,
any revision of so much history is sure to contradict the history as remembered by participants in
the system. Thus such an attack would be detected, recognized as an attack, and the new history

If this is implemented correctly, there is no problem with this, except that it changes the trust
model from that of Bitcoin. New users who encounter multiple histories are no longer able to
distinguish them on their own; they need to ask existing participants in the network (which may
include friends and family, large corporate entities with reputations to maintain, public websites,
etc.) which history they know to be the true one. This is not a distributed consensus! It is a different
sort of consensus, which may be formed amongst always-online peers in a decentralized way, but
depends on trust for new users and temporarily offline ones. It is correspondingly vulnurable to
legal pressure, attacks on “trusted” entities, and network attacks.

I don't recommend anyone trust their funds to any network using Proof of Stake.  Actual methods of attack are published in this paper.  It's just a matter of time.

2  Economy / Speculation / Is DEA Agent Force Responsible For MtGox Collapse? on: March 31, 2015, 05:39:00 PM

I smell a class action lawsuit from all MtGox customers coming soon.
3  Economy / Speculation / Nasdaq to Provide Trading Technology for Bitcoin Marketplace on: March 23, 2015, 08:12:42 PM

Noble Markets venture aims to allow institutional investors to trade digital-currency assets

Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. has agreed to provide New York-based startup Noble Markets with core technology to power a new marketplace aimed at allowing companies and institutional investors such as hedge funds to trade bitcoin and related digital-currency assets.

According to a joint statement provided to The Wall Street Journal, Noble’s platform will use Nasdaq’s X-stream trading system, a high-tech system for matching market participants’ orders that is used by more than 30 exchanges and marketplaces worldwide. Nasdaq will also provide marketing support.

4  Economy / Speculation / Ukraine 'to Crackdown on Separatist Bitcoin Accounts' on: March 20, 2015, 04:47:11 PM

The chairman did not explain how the security service was planning to block the accounts.

In the meantime, Reddit users have fuelled speculation that Ukranian exchange website may be inaccessible to domestic Internet users.

If this escalates, it will result in the separatists keeping their funds in BTC and using it directly, instead of converting to local currency at an exchange.  Bitcoin's anti-fragility means every time it is attacked it gets stronger.  Bitcoin is a Saiyan.
5  Economy / Speculation / BitVC Ceases Litecoin Futures Offering to Focus on Bitcoin on: March 20, 2015, 05:30:15 AM

Futures trading platform BitVC has announced it will no longer offer litecoin futures to its users, as it shifts its focus to bitcoin.

The platform, a subsidiary of Chinese exchange Huobi, said that the decision was taken "due to a lack of user demand", and the "growing consensus that the world will only have one cryptocurrency value".

6  Economy / Speculation / Swedish central bank cuts key rate further below zero on: March 19, 2015, 05:16:39 AM;_ylt=AwrBJSAprQlVM0wAUJDQtDMD

"Sweden's central bank took its key interest rate further into negative territory Wednesday in a surprise move aimed at supporting a return to inflation.

The Riksbank cut its repo rate by 0.15 percentage points to -0.25 percent and said it was buying government bonds worth 30 billion kronor ($3.4 billion, 3.2 billion euros) to prevent an appreciating krona from hindering an uptick in inflation."
7  Economy / Speculation / Coinbase adds support for FIX protocol as Wall Street boards bandwagon on: March 18, 2015, 04:32:12 AM

Bitcoin exchange operator Coinbase has added support for the FIX protocol for order management by professional traders.

Currently available in beta, users of the API will typically be operating from an order management system set up to support the FIX protocol.

"While our existing REST and WebSockets APIs provide full functionality for all users, the new FIX API is designed to support customers with existing trading software that uses the FIX protocol for order management," says the company in a statement.
8  Economy / Speculation / Qualcomm funds startup to use Bitcoin for Internet of Things on: March 10, 2015, 04:07:27 PM

Qualcomm's chips represent a large portion of the cell phone market.  They intend to bring their cellular chip technology to all manner of interconnected things, and use the Bitcoin blockchain to do so.
9  Economy / Speculation / Two Bullish Bitcoin stories on CNBC front page. on: January 26, 2015, 10:48:48 PM
Two Bitcoin stories on the CNBC front page, both bullish:

Winklevoss twins: Bitcoin plunge a buying opp
Bitcoin is done with its 'tumultuous teen' years
10  Economy / Speculation / Coinbase is Insured on: January 26, 2015, 04:52:36 PM
From, which is linked from

Coinbase is insured against employee theft and hacking in an amount that exceeds the average value of online bitcoin it holds at any given time. Specifically, Coinbase's insurance policy would respond in the event that bitcoin stored in Coinbase was lost or stolen as a result of a breach of our physical security, cyber security, or as a result of employee theft.

Coinbase has held this insurance since November 2013 with highly rated carriers (S&P rating of A+ or A.M. Best Rating of A XV or higher).
11  Economy / Speculation / Microsoft News: Bitcoin and the Under-18 Demographic on: December 11, 2014, 05:19:56 PM
The target market for Bitcoin use by Microsoft is XBox gamers, many of whom are under 18 years of age.  This demographic doesn't have credit cards.  It's very difficult for them to spend fiat online.  Bitcoin can become the defacto savings and payment method for this demographic.  Cash doesn't do them any good, as they can't spend it online.  Bitcoin is the answer.

Microsoft has capitalized on something big here.  The under-18 demographic has no way to legally spend fiat online.  Now they can spend Bitcoin.  Soon the under-18 demographic will begin keeping their funds in Bitcoin, as it's trapped in unusable form when left as fiat.  Bitcoin will grow from this.  Add to this the powerful educational effect of indoctrination at an early age, and we have a very bullish long-term effect for Bitcoin.
12  Economy / Speculation / Breakout by Week of 12-28 on: November 27, 2014, 11:16:11 PM

If this breaks out sideways, I may die of boredom.
13  Economy / Speculation / IBM to Unveil BTC Blockchain Internet of Things Proof-of-Concept at CES on: November 04, 2014, 04:05:45 AM

What this means is we've been grossly underestimating the number of potential users of Bitcoin.  We've restricted it so far only to humans, based on old models of non-digital currency.  That is a huge miscalculation.  Now "things" will own Bitcoins as well, and use them to interact with each other.  The number of "things" in the world is massively larger than the number of people.  In terms of Bitcoin price, this is huge.
14  Other / Off-topic / Flaw in New ‘Secure’ VISA Credit Cards Lets Hackers Steal $1M Per Card on: November 04, 2014, 12:27:17 AM

Lol.  Watch this be the trigger for the next rally as everyone uses the flaw to pile into Bitcoin.
15  Economy / Speculation / New ATH for Adoption on: November 03, 2014, 02:50:36 AM
Huge spike up in Number of Unique Bitcoin Addresses Used Per Day.  New All Time High:

The 7-day average of the above shows us moving way up past anything seen in December or March:

New All Time High for 7-day average of Number of Transactions per Day as well, finally exceeding the December numbers today:
16  Economy / Speculation / How do you think the November 4, 2014 U.S. elections could affect Bitcoin price? on: October 22, 2014, 04:19:12 AM
This is not a poll on who you think will do well in the next U.S. election.  It is a poll on which party is better for Bitcoin in the next election.  Let's keep the trolling out please.
17  Economy / Speculation / The Fundamental Value of Bitcoin - Satoshi on: October 21, 2014, 06:59:43 PM
As a thought experiment, imagine there was a base metal as scarce as gold but with the following properties:
- boring grey in colour
- not a good conductor of electricity
- not particularly strong, but not ductile or easily malleable either
- not useful for any practical or ornamental purpose

and one special, magical property:
- can be transported over a communications channel

If it somehow acquired any value at all for whatever reason, then anyone wanting to transfer wealth over a long distance could buy some, transmit it, and have the recipient sell it.

Maybe it could get an initial value circularly as you've suggested, by people foreseeing its potential usefulness for exchange.  (I would definitely want some)  Maybe collectors, any random reason could spark it.

I think the traditional qualifications for money were written with the assumption that there are so many competing objects in the world that are scarce, an object with the automatic bootstrap of intrinsic value will surely win out over those without intrinsic value.  But if there were nothing in the world with intrinsic value that could be used as money, only scarce but no intrinsic value, I think people would still take up something.

(I'm using the word scarce here to only mean limited potential supply)

18  Bitcoin / Project Development / Wanted: Bitcoin Consumer Wallet for Android Phones on: October 20, 2014, 11:46:57 PM
This is designed to mimic the consumer protections offered by credit cards, without giving up the benefits of Bitcoin.  This should improve mass adoption.

1) All transactions are sent to a multisig address shared with 3 parties: wallet owner (sender), escrow agent, and target of transaction
2) All transactions are subject to an approval period.  If sender approves, or if approval period of 30 days times out, funds are released to target immediately.
3) If sender disputes a transaction within approval period, escrow agent gets involved and sends funds to correct location (sender or target).  Escrow agent gets a small sum to resolve disputes, and nothing for non-disputes.
4) Selection and management of escrow agents should be decentralized.
5) App must support NFC to allow a user-friendly experience.  Just get your phone near the register and payment is complete.  You can review your transactions for approval/dispute any time in the next 30 days much like you do for credit cards.
19  Economy / Speculation / Why Sell on Exchanges? Guy is offering 8% over market! on: October 08, 2014, 01:29:56 AM
Why would anyone sell on an exchange when you can get 8% more cash selling to this guy:

In fact, this is an immense arbitrage opportunity.  At these prices you can make about $27 per Bitcoin that you buy on an exchange and sell to him.  The only requirement is you must do at least 10 BTC.  So that means there should never be any sells on exchanges that are greater than or equal to 10BTC or the seller is an idiot.
20  Economy / Speculation / Adoption Has Reached a New All Time High on: October 02, 2014, 01:15:50 AM
The 7-day average of "Number of Unique Bitcoin Addresses Used" per day has reached a new all time high.

Bullish divergence.

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