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Author Topic: The Fundamental Value of Bitcoin - Satoshi  (Read 1413 times)
Raystonn (OP)
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October 21, 2014, 06:59:43 PM
 #1

As a thought experiment, imagine there was a base metal as scarce as gold but with the following properties:
- boring grey in colour
- not a good conductor of electricity
- not particularly strong, but not ductile or easily malleable either
- not useful for any practical or ornamental purpose

and one special, magical property:
- can be transported over a communications channel

If it somehow acquired any value at all for whatever reason, then anyone wanting to transfer wealth over a long distance could buy some, transmit it, and have the recipient sell it.

Maybe it could get an initial value circularly as you've suggested, by people foreseeing its potential usefulness for exchange.  (I would definitely want some)  Maybe collectors, any random reason could spark it.

I think the traditional qualifications for money were written with the assumption that there are so many competing objects in the world that are scarce, an object with the automatic bootstrap of intrinsic value will surely win out over those without intrinsic value.  But if there were nothing in the world with intrinsic value that could be used as money, only scarce but no intrinsic value, I think people would still take up something.

(I'm using the word scarce here to only mean limited potential supply)

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There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. The most secure are full nodes like Bitcoin Core, which will follow the rules of the network no matter what miners do. Even if every miner decided to create 1000 bitcoins per block, full nodes would stick to the rules and reject those blocks.
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October 21, 2014, 07:11:11 PM
 #2

If beanie babies, MTG cards and baseball cards can hold tremendous value, then there is no reason that Bitcoin can't surpass them all... combined.

$4500 beanie baby - http://www.celebritynetworth.com/articles/entertainment-articles/5-valuable-beanie-babies/#!/peanut-the-royal-blue-elephant_570/

$100K black lotus MTG card - http://www.ebay.com/itm/MTG-MAGICTHE-GATHERING-BETA-BLACK-LOTUS-BGS-10-THE-HIGHEST-GRADED-/310327005845

$2.8 million Honus Wagner - http://www.celebritynetworth.com/articles/entertainment-articles/10-valuable-baseball-cards/#!/honus-wagner-1909-1911-2-8-million_441/

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October 21, 2014, 07:44:14 PM
 #3

The fundamental value of the bitcoin system is the value of all the trades enabled by it (minus all the electricity burned). Unfortunately this is hard to estimate - because of two things: we don't know which part of a bitcoin transaction goes to the new owner and which is just the rest going back to the original one, and we don't know which of the transactions are truly non-zero-sum trades and which ones are just speculations. My intuition is that 99% is speculation (and the rest is mostly drugs).

Once we establish the value of the whole system - we can divide it by the number of bitcoins in circulation and get the fundamental value of BTC.
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October 21, 2014, 07:51:04 PM
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The fundamental value of the bitcoin system is the value of all the trades enabled by it (minus all the electricity burned). Unfortunately this is hard to estimate - because of two things: we don't know which part of a bitcoin transaction goes to the new owner and which is just the rest going back to the original one, and we don't know which of the transactions are truly non-zero-sum trades and which ones are just speculations. My intuition is that 99% is speculation (and the rest is mostly drugs).

Once we establish the value of the whole system - we can divide it by the number of bitcoins in circulation and get the fundamental value of BTC.

bitcoins, IMO, has value beyond its means-of-exchange, store of value property.

Bitcoin's value is also in the elimination (or reduction at the very least) of trust in financial institutions, governments, counter-parties, third parties, auditors, or regulators.

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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October 21, 2014, 07:56:10 PM
 #5

We have to wait all the 21 million of bitcoin and after we will can determine the real value , at the moment is only a pure speculation.
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October 21, 2014, 07:58:09 PM
 #6

We have to wait all the 21 million of bitcoin and after we will can determine the real value , at the moment is only a pure speculation.

It seems you are confusing value with price.

Ever since the first block was mined the value proposition was created and etched in stone.

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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October 21, 2014, 08:01:01 PM
 #7

We have to wait all the 21 million of bitcoin and after we will can determine the real value , at the moment is only a pure speculation.

It seems you are confusing value with price.

Ever since the first block was mined the value proposition was created and etched in stone.

No , I don't .  What is (for you) the real value of bitcoin at the moment ?
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October 21, 2014, 08:14:14 PM
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We have to wait all the 21 million of bitcoin and after we will can determine the real value , at the moment is only a pure speculation.

It seems you are confusing value with price.

Ever since the first block was mined the value proposition was created and etched in stone.

No , I don't .  What is (for you) the real value of bitcoin at the moment ?


bitcoins, IMO, has value beyond its means-of-exchange, store of value property.

Bitcoin's value is also in the elimination (or reduction at the very least) of trust in financial institutions, governments, counter-parties, third parties, auditors, or regulators.


"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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October 21, 2014, 08:30:28 PM
Last edit: October 21, 2014, 08:46:37 PM by Gyrsur
 #9

the value will grow if it is more used for transmission. if autonomous agents are part of our daily live the time is mature for Bitcoin if it then still exists.

http://jade.tilab.com

think issue -> solution. divide issues in small ones and get solutions. Bitcoin is just a bridge, nothing more.

we need more interfaces to the real world. time is not ready for it.

Robert Paulson
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October 21, 2014, 08:47:19 PM
 #10

bitcoin can be seen as a system to maintain and document the balance of trade between all the parties that agreed to settle their debts using it.
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October 22, 2014, 05:02:00 AM
 #11

We have to wait all the 21 million of bitcoin and after we will can determine the real value , at the moment is only a pure speculation.

It seems you are confusing value with price.

Ever since the first block was mined the value proposition was created and etched in stone.

No , I don't .  What is (for you) the real value of bitcoin at the moment ?

Value and price are two specifically different definitions but surprisingly easily misused in normal, shallow, general everyday conversations by normal everyday people such as yourself, either out of convenience, laziness, or maybe just pure ignorance. And when you asked what is (for you) the real value of bitcoin, it seems you know the difference between value and price but your first post about waiting to determine the real value, you've confused that with price.
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yes


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October 22, 2014, 07:06:25 AM
 #12

The real value is its network.

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October 22, 2014, 10:35:37 AM
 #13

The real value is its network.

That is the only value for bitcoin. Pretty much same as myspace before it.
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