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1  Economy / Speculation / Comparison between different futures markets on: May 15, 2020, 07:44:59 PM
I'm checking out OKEx and Kraken. Could anyone comment on the relative strengths of their futures trading platforms?
2  Economy / Speculation / One block left until final difficulty change before reward halving on: May 05, 2020, 03:58:29 AM
Looks like we'll be getting an increase of about 0.88%. Miner capitulation has already happened. This is it!


Edit:
Previous difficulty: 15958652328578.42
Current difficulty: 16104807485529.38

Increase was approximately 0.92%
3  Bitcoin / Electrum / Electrum 3.2.0 has been released (Satoshi's Vision) on: July 01, 2018, 12:40:30 AM
# Release 3.2.0 - Satoshi's Vision (June 30, 2018)

 * If present, libsecp256k1 is used to speed up elliptic curve
   operations. The library is bundled in the Windows, MacOS, and
   Android binaries. On Linux, it needs to be installed separately.
 * Two-factor authentication is available on Android. Note that this
   will only provide additional security if one time passwords are
   generated on a separate device.
 * Semi-automated crash reporting is implemented for Android.
 * Transactions that are dropped from the mempool are kept in the
   wallet as 'local', and can be rebroadcast. Previously these
   transactions were deleted from the wallet.
 * The scriptSig and witness part of transaction inputs are no longer
   parsed, unless actually needed. The wallet will no longer display
   'from' addresses corresponding to transaction inputs, except for
   its own inputs.
 * The partial transaction format has been incompatibly changed. This
   was needed as for partial transactions the scriptSig/witness has to
   be parsed, but for signed transactions we did not want to do the
   parsing.  Users should make sure that all instances of Electrum
   they use to co-sign or offline sign, are updated together.
 * Signing of partial transactions created with online imported
   addresses wallets now supports significantly more
   setups. Previously only online p2pkh address + offline WIF was
   supported.  Now the following setups are all supported:
   - online {p2pkh, p2wpkh-p2sh, p2wpkh} address + offline WIF,
   - online {p2pkh, p2wpkh-p2sh, p2wpkh} address + offline seed/xprv,
   - online {p2sh, p2wsh-p2sh, p2wsh}-multisig address + offline seeds/xprvs
     (potentially distributed among several different machines)
   Note that for the online address + offline HD secret case, you need
   the offline wallet to recognize the address (i.e. within gap
   limit).  Having an xpub on the online machine is still the
   recommended setup, as this allows the online machine to generate
   new addresses on demand.
 * Segwit multisig for bip39 and hardware wallets is now enabled.
   (both p2wsh-p2sh and native p2wsh)
 * Ledger: offline signing for segwit inputs (#3302) This has already
   worked for Trezor and Digital Bitbox. Offline segwit signing can be
   combined with online imported addresses wallets.
 * Added Revealer plugin. ( https://revealer.cc ) Revealer is a seed
   phrase back-up solution. It allows you to create a cold, analog,
   multi-factor backup of your wallet seeds, or of any arbitrary
   secret. The Revealer utilizes a transparent plastic visual one time
   pad.
 * Fractional fee rates: the Qt GUI now displays fee rates with 0.1
   sat/byte precision, and also allows this same resolution in the
   Send tab.
 * Hardware wallets: a "show address" button is now displayed in the
   Receive tab of the Qt GUI. (#4316)
 * Trezor One: implemented advanced/matrix recovery (#4329)
 * Qt/Kivy: added "sat" as optional base unit.
 * Kivy GUI: significant performance improvements when displaying
   history and address list of large wallets; and transaction dialog
   of large transactions.
 * Windows: use dnspython to resolve dns instead of socket.getaddrinfo
   (#4422)
 * Importing minikeys: use uncompressed pubkey instead of compressed
   (#4384)
 * SPV proofs: check inner nodes not to be valid transactions (#4436)
 * Qt GUI: there is now an optional "dark" theme (#4461)
 * Several other minor bugfixes and usability improvements.
4  Economy / Speculation / Bitcoin will never reach $100,000 again on: March 22, 2018, 08:15:20 AM
RESERVED
5  Economy / Speculation / Almost 40% to the next halvening on: January 11, 2018, 10:20:53 PM
At that time the inflation rate will drop to 1.79%. Just a reminder everyone.
6  Economy / Speculation / Any Europeans using Gemini? Tax question... on: December 18, 2017, 10:45:57 PM
I think the US doesn't charge nonresident aliens if using a US exchange. Trying to be sure though. Hard to find good attorneys. Anyone here have experience with that?
7  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Diff drop incoming? on: August 16, 2017, 03:48:50 AM
Sorta strange we are at an ATH but at the moment it seems like diff will stay about even or drop very slightly. Thoughts as to why?
8  Economy / Speculation / Next halving scheduled for 26 June 2020 on: March 05, 2017, 09:59:52 PM
Already two weeks earlier than it was scheduled. Not many coins left. Don't let the wealth effect take your coins when you get rich. Wink
9  Other / Meta / Forum email encryption in transit on: February 11, 2017, 05:30:48 PM
I notice Gmail warns emails to bitcointalk.org aren't encrypted in transit. Perhaps good to enable?

https://support.google.com/mail/answer/6330403?visit_id=1-636224307292452557-2883007702&p=tls&hl=en&rd=1
10  Economy / Speculation / Bitcoin's a fad and it's on fire... higher than a fantasy, like a singularity... on: May 29, 2016, 05:55:35 PM
The proudhon song (bitcoin is a bubble)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7TuFy0fcuw

I love listening to this during rallies. Smiley
11  Economy / Speculation / The dragon has arrived on: May 28, 2016, 08:49:01 PM
All hail the dragon.

Now past the high of the week of Aug 24 2014.
12  Economy / Speculation / Now we know Satoshi is not going to be forced out of hiding on: May 05, 2016, 07:50:59 PM
If this CW scam, blocksize debate, etc. and the ensuing media attention won't make Satoshi sign something saying he is not CW, then nothing can do so. He will make a move if and when he decides (if he is still alive). So although this is just a stupid sideshow it does provide us with additional information which can be useful to pricing our favorite asset. Satoshi is not going to raise his head until he is good and ready, and that is likely some time (in terms of price) from now.
13  Economy / Speculation / 30-day volatility now the LOWEST on record! 60-day is 2nd lowest on record! on: April 18, 2016, 10:16:54 AM
I can't believe it! Here's a volatility update as of April 17, 2016:

60-day volatility has fallen to the 2nd lowest on record! 1.315%

And 30-day is now the lowest on record! 0.723%

What comes next?
14  Economy / Speculation / Time to sell my laptop so I can be all in on: April 18, 2016, 12:57:34 AM
Didn't even think I could get money for my dog until another poster here pointed that out. Thanks! Now I'm making my last post before I sell my laptop. Gotta switch to a paper wallet. This time I'm going all in! Fortunately public nudity is not illegal around these parts. See you guys after the halving!
15  Economy / Speculation / I have $1,048,576 cash. Will I still be able to buy even 100 bitcoins in 2030? on: April 13, 2016, 12:58:38 AM
Turning that topic on its head! Wink

In reality I hold bitcoin, not dollars. Smiley

I think the answer is no. The age of the billionaire will not be replaced by the age of the trillionaire but by the thousandaire.
16  Economy / Speculation / The longer the wait, the bigger the bang -volatility watch- on: April 07, 2016, 02:16:21 PM
30-day volatility is below 1% as of today for the first time since January 2013. The price has never been this high and this stable. Sort of exciting!

Some numbers:
60-day vol: 1.50753099% 36th least vol. on record
30-day vol: 0.97875074% 15th least vol. on record

Source: https://btcvol.info/ (standard deviation of daily returns for preceding 30- & 60-day windows)
17  Economy / Speculation / 30-day volatility at 1.19%, 60-day at 1.69% on: April 04, 2016, 07:15:10 PM
Lowest on record are 0.86% and 1.41% just after the last halving. Will volatility drop to new lows?

Edit: 0.79116124% and 1.3148784% are actually the lowest on record.
18  Economy / Speculation / Market cap vs. bitcoin price on: January 09, 2016, 12:02:11 PM
Market cap in blue, bitcoin price in red, starting on the same zero point at the left and diverging as inflation takes away from the price of each coin.

Peak market cap is 2.06x current market cap compared to peak btc price which is 2.59x, a 26% difference.

The slope of the trend lines are interesting as well.

ref: blockchain.info
peak 13900051500, 1151.0
current 6751214190, 448.2



19  Economy / Speculation / Bitcoin will never reach $2000 again on: January 07, 2016, 05:07:49 PM
Whoops, too early.  Grin
20  Economy / Speculation / Another way of looking at the halving, market cap and coin inflation rates on: December 31, 2015, 10:30:21 PM
tl;dr If market cap growth is to increase we are going to see a nice jump due to halving. On top of that the rate of this growth can also increase as it did after the last halving. Even with $41,000 coins it would take 32 years to reach MSFT's market cap on 30 Dec 1999.

12/31/2015 price $430
9/18/14 price $430

day diff is 469
block diff is 67,536
coin diff is 1,688,400

12/31/2015 coins 15,028,500
9/18/14 coins 13,340,100

market cap now $6,462,255,000
market cap then $5,736,243,000
increase is $726,012,000
increase is 12.66%

430*1.1266=484.438

$1,548,000 per day gained at $420*3600

2753 2553 days since genesis until now
growth at above rate would imply $4,261,644,000 $3,952,044,000
but actually grew $2,500,000 per day over lifetime of btc until now
*had 50btc/10m for ~1/2time

2084 days until 9/18/14 from genesis
grew by $2,752,000 a day

at current $1,548,000 then we have $309,600,000 before halving
2nd halving implied price $6,771,855,000
that is if 15,750,000 coins = $430

---
28 nov 2012 halving was 1425 days since genesis
10,500,000 coins
~$115,000,000
grew $81,000 per day until 1st halving

$6,656,855,000 between first halving and implied second halving
1328 days
$5,012,692 per day

62x daily growth from 1st to 2nd

But current coins per day are worth $1,548,000 per day, .3x the average growth rate between halving 1 and 2
Or .62x the overall growth rate throughout the life of the system

and 81,000/7200=$11.25 for first phase

?= 430/.3 - 430/.62 = $693-$1433
? After 2nd halving then per day issued is $1,247,400 per day - $2,579,400

If 3rd era is 15x from 2nd era (.25 previous jump) then $41,000 coins to get to ~75m daily increase from 1800 coins

75m daily increase would be 27.375b per year

MSFT cap was 879b on 30 Dec 1999. At above rate of growth it would still take 31.9 years (2048) for us to reach that total. (n.b. not accounting future halvings)

Edit: Corrected two errors, needs rechecking
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