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1  Economy / Speculation / Ross Ulbricht (Silkroad guy) doing elliot wave analysis from prison on: December 11, 2019, 06:28:45 PM
Apparently he's getting help posting these from friends outside of prison, who send him charts every week to draw on and write about.
Yesterday four posts went up, first one is here (each ends with a link to the next).

TL;DR: He sees December 2017 as being either the (3) after Jan 2015's ④, in which case he imagines a price target around $100k...

...or as I⑤ ending a giant Wave I that encompasses most of Bitcoin's history, in which case we have two more downtrends to weather and should expect a bottom well below $3k.

I don't know much about Elliot waves and am not sure I believe in them myself, but thought it would be interesting to y'all especially given Ross's more general notability.
2  Economy / Speculation / Calm down. on: July 11, 2019, 03:27:21 PM
It feels like every six hours I see a fresh "news" article on my feed about how "the bubble is on" or "BTC has crashed" because of a 15-20% price motion.

I worry that these people are missing a history lesson.

Here's the period between the 2011 and 2013 bubbles:

So the 2011 bubble follows a pattern that even new folks, who joined in 2017, should recognize: a dizzying rise, followed by a year of gradual, painful losses.

But between when the price hit bottom (when six figures of BTC changed hands at the $2 pricepoint), and when the 2014 bubble began, there was a third pattern: long periods of relative stability (with fluctuations in the 20% range), punctuated by brief bullish periods (Dec 2011 bringing us to a semi-stable $5, July 2012 bringing us to a semi-stable $13, and the time spent around $100 in mid-2013).

As an example, we can zoom in on the $5 period:

Clearly, there are big daily moves going on here! Imagine what people might have been thinking on March 19th, or April 20th!
But in the end, these moves were just a random walk around a somewhat stable price.

Similar behavior can be found in the 2015-2016 chart, after 2014's despair had run its course but before 2017's fever began.

This historical behavior, to me, implies two things:
1) For cryptocurrency as it is today, even "stability" sees 20% fluctuations.
2) Months-long periods of this "stability" are normal; not everything is boom or bust.

So today, with prices going back and forth between (roughly) $11k and $13k, I can't help but think that folks who are taking every motion as an omen of a larger trend are wearing themselves out needlessly. This might just be the start of another stable period - a chance for the ecosystem to get comfortable with the idea that $12k is the "normal" price of a bitcoin.

Calm down. "It" doesn't have to happen today, or even this month. It'll happen when it happens.
3  Economy / Speculation / "What started it"? on: April 02, 2019, 03:19:29 PM
So after looking into volume on the top exchanges, it looks like today's excitement may have begun in Japan.

Here's a line from Coincheck's minute-by-minute volume (as reported by BitcoinCharts):
2019-04-02 04:28:00 465026 465598 465016 465419 7.68 3574735.98 465396.36

This is a small move in terms of price, but a fairly large trade for this particular exchange - about 7x the usual minute-by-minute volume.

This is followed a couple minutes later by high volume on Kraken (USD):
2019-04-02 04:31:00 4184.3 4194.7 4184.3 4194 125.68 526358.37 4188.23
and Bitstamp:
2019-04-02 04:31:00 4187.45 4200 4187.45 4200 138.17 579084.04 4190.95

And then the other exchanges. Most small exchanges see big volume bumps at 04:32:00, but feedback into Coincheck seems to happen comparatively fast; it begins at 04:31:00 too.

Could arbitrage from this big Coincheck trade have been the event that kicked off today's green candle? Or am I reading too much into this, and the trade at 4:28 was just a coincidence?
4  Economy / Economics / One Interesting Consequence of the Bitcoin Price on: December 08, 2017, 02:20:54 AM
The mining reward is designed to automatically adjust so that blocks will be found - and BTC issued - at a predictable rate.

A side effect is that miners can choose to mine, or not, at any given moment, purely based on whether mining at that moment would be profitable.

And thus, mining will generally cost exactly as much as the block reward (because it gets easier/harder until that's true).

In other words, any particular BTC spot price carries with it an assumption about how much it costs to mine a block. And mining happens in the real world, using real infrastructure.

Large scale power plants these days generally costs between 5-10/kWh. That includes both clean energy and dirty.

If one bitcoin is worth $100,000... the implication is that 72GW are being generated, somewhere, to run mining hardware.
If one bitcoin is worth $1 million... the implication is that 720GW are being expended.

Let's assume this is mostly "clean energy", so that we don't stay up at night worrying about greenhouse gas emissions.

72GW requires about 2700 square miles of land devoted to solar farms - about the size of Luxemborg.
720GW requires about 27,000 square miles - about the size of Panama.

Naturally, this would not all be in one place. It'd be spread out, integrated into the places where mining rigs happen to be. But that's still an incredible amount of infrastructure - of physical stuff - all dedicated simply to outvoting an adversary.

For a Proof of Work based system to reach these heights, then, means that it is not simply a thing that exists ephemerally, on networks and in ledgers.

Rather, it must exist, physically, among us, all over the real world.
5  Economy / Speculation / What if: an old hand dumps all their coins right now? on: November 04, 2017, 03:23:06 PM
First, a little bit of background.

In 2012, Dorit Ron and Adi Shamir published a paper analyzing the Bitcoin transaction graph, in an attempt to understand how much could be determined about the largest BTC holders, just from the publicly available info.

They concluded, among other things, that there were a dozen or so "entities" who - even in 2012 - were holding several hundred thousand BTC each:

Entity ID
Address Count
Total Incoming BTC
Transaction Count
B (Mt.Gox)
G (Instawallet)
L (Deepbit)

Last night, I dreamt that I checked BitcoinCharts on my phone, only to see that someone had dumped a huge number of BTC onto the exchanges, causing the price to crash to about $2.

As you can see from the above chart, this is not an impossible situation. The whole order book of the big exchanges is "only" about 200,000 BTC deep. If one of these Entities were to rediscover a lost wallet... or if the price were to reach their "exit price" that they'd decided upon long ago... it's easy to imagine that "get all of my money out before anyone can react" would become more important for them than getting the absolute best price for it.

So my question here is... if this were to happen, what would happen next? Would the price bounce back, bolstered by confidence that this sort of holder was less likely to still be lurking around? Or would people get scared, and try to sell off their own BTC too? How would miners act? How would exchanges act? Et cetera.
6  Economy / Speculation / The Mood on: August 22, 2017, 10:14:58 PM

(Who am I talking about? Bulls? Bears? BitcoinCasheers? That's for you to decide Wink)
7  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / What percentage of the gossip network is still on 0.13.0 or equivalent? on: August 15, 2017, 02:26:44 AM
Do we know how many of the full nodes have upgraded to a version that understands SegWit style scripts?

I did some websearching but couldn't find many details. Not even sure if this kind of info about a distributed system can be feasibly collected.
8  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / What's the latest on transaction mutability? on: December 06, 2013, 06:29:40 AM
There's a lot of really interesting protocols being developed with advanced Bitcoin scripting lately. CoinSwap, trust-free guessing games, the list goes on. But in a lot of these cases, the protocols are hampered by the "transaction mutability" issue - essentially, the issue that a signed transaction can have its txid changed by any of the participants by redoing their signature, thereby invalidating any pre-built transactions that were supposed to follow on from it (e.g. time-locked cancellation transactions).

The thing is, I've seen various statements attached to interesting scripting proposals that go something like "care must be taken until mutability is fixed", as though (1) we have a plan to "fix" mutability, and (2) until then there's a way to prevent such attacks against schemes like CoinSwap if one is "careful". Searches reveal only fragmented and piecemeal discussion of the former, and almost nothing on the latter.

So I suppose my questions are, what's the plan to fix mutability, and what can we do in the meantime?
9  Economy / Digital goods / [WTS] Humble Origin Bundle (30%+ DISCOUNT) on: August 14, 2013, 07:11:58 PM
From the website:
The Humble Origin Bundle

8 triumphant games. Pay what you want and get the terrifying sci-fi horror third person shooter Dead Space 3; the original bone-chilling horror shooter Dead Space; the intense action-packed supersoldier shooter Crysis 2 Maximum Edition; the high speed open-world crash happy racer Burnout Paradise: The Ultimate Box; the authentic modern warfare sim Medal of Honor; and the first person parkour thrill ride Mirror's Edge. Pay over the average and receive the beloved life sim The Sims 3 (along with two expansion packs in The Sims 3 Starter Pack) and the unrivaled military shooter Battlefield 3.

Fire it up on Origin. Buying the Humble Origin Bundle gets you the games to play on Windows through Origin (system requirements here), with The Sims 3 also available on Mac! Electronic Arts has also provided Steam keys for some of the games (full list here)!
I am selling gift URLs for the full package - all "above the average" games are included - for 30 minicoins (0.03 BTC). That's about 30% below what you would pay in USD.

I've done this three times before, and you can look at the successful transactions in those threads for proof of my trustworthiness. If you'd rather not take the risk, and have good rep of your own, I'm willing to send first. I'm also amenable to escrow if necessary.
10  Economy / Goods / [WTS] Honey - The Ultimate (Delicious) Store of Value on: June 19, 2013, 12:25:48 AM
What makes a particular asset good as a store of value? In my opinion, the answer is simple:

1) In a catastrophic scenario, the asset's value is less likely to decline than the value of other assets.
2) Assuming that no catastrophic scenario occurs, the asset's value does not decline, or at worst declines very slowly.

Honey fulfills both of these conditions. It doesn't spoil, so its value won't significantly demur, even decades in the future. And unlike precious metals - which may cease to be useful/valuable in especially desperate end-of-civilization scenarios - honey is food, a food used since ancient times, which will be valuable in basically any scenario where scarcity is still a meaningful concept.

Also, it's delicious and (comparatively) healthy!

One of my acquaintances co-operates an apiary, and has been selling the honey therefrom for several years (it even won a local award in 2011). This year, they've produced an especially bumper crop, and with their permission I'm listing their goods for sale here.

Three varieties are available:
  • Orange blossom honey (that is, honey from bees who fed on orange blossoms) - 3 2 gallons remaining
  • Citrus/wildflower honey (from bees who fed on citrus blossoms and wildflowers) - 30 gallons remaining
  • Wildflower honey (fed on wildflowers only) - lots and lots remaining
All three varieties are "raw" honey - filtered but unpasteurized. The main disadvantage here is that it'll crystallize faster, but that's easy to reverse when you want to use it; all you need to do is put the container on a sunny windowsill or dunk it in warm water for a while, and it'll quickly return to "normal" honey consistency. The advantage of unpasteurized honey is that the honey keeps a lot of its natural enzymes, which (so I'm told!) are antibacterial and generally good for you.

Four sizes are available:
  • Half-pint jar - ($8 in BTC)
  • Pint jar - ($11 in BTC)
  • Quart jar - ($21 in BTC)
  • Gallon (probably shipped as four quart jars) - ($61 in BTC)
Shipping is ($10 in BTC) to the United States (($20 in BTC) if you're ordering more than two quarts). For international orders, I'll have to check with the apiarists - it varies a lot.
Edit: I had Mt. Gox tickers here, but since they began a withdrawl hiatus, their prices have diverged dramatically from the exchange rate quoted everywhere else. I'll be making quotes based on the Bitstamp/Bitfinex prices when requested.

I've had several previous threads in Goods, which should provide some evidence for my trustworthiness if you decide to send first.
If you have a good reputation in past trades, I'm willing to send first.
If neither of these are acceptable, I'm willing to do escrow.

I'll be tracking this thread. Please let me know, here or by PM, if you are interested.
11  Economy / Goods / [CLOSED] Tony Romas / Applebees Giftcards (4-10% Discount) on: May 28, 2013, 02:29:48 AM
Edit 1 Jan: Offer closed again.

Edit 21 Nov: Offer reopened, switched to a different reference price.

For the next few weeks, I will be able to sell you giftcards from Tony Roma's and Applebee's at a discount.

Just tell me what denomination you want (up to $50 value), and I'll send you the giftcard by USPS (or email, in the case of Applebee's) in exchange for the 24-hour average Bitstamp price.

As a special deal, $25 giftcards are only $23 in BTC, and $50 giftcards are only $45 in BTC.

If you want any other denomination, it'll be a 4% discount (for instance, a $20 giftcard would cost $19.20 in BTC).

I've had several previous threads in Goods, which should provide some evidence for my trustworthiness if you decide to send first.
If you have a good reputation in past trades, I'm willing to send first.
If neither of these are acceptable, I'm willing to do escrow.

I'll be tracking this thread. Please let me know, here or by PM, if you are interested.
12  Economy / Service Discussion / CampBX - How safe is it? Any troubled past? on: April 22, 2013, 05:55:53 PM
I'm looking for an exchange to use since Gox has been having lag problems and Bitfloor is on its deathbed. I remember Camp BX from way back in 2011, but I never used them or really paid much attention. And it seems they don't get discussed much around here either.

So I guess my question is, has anyone used these guys? Do you trust them? Is there anything in their past that I should know about before using them as my secondary platform?
13  Economy / Speculation / Bubble? Growth? One goat's thoughts on: March 26, 2013, 01:06:25 AM
From two months ago, in a thread about bubbles:

I'm thinking somewhere between "greed" and "delusion"....
In the end, it seems clear that this read was incorrect; at the time, the price of one bitcoin was something like $20.

(please don't laugh!)
fool that I am, I suspect that the chart has finally begun to apply.

Recently, people have pointed out that there are many, many new accounts being created at the major exchanges. Bitstamp account IDs have tripled in the past month. Mt. Gox made a post discussing their increased volume. And with the Cyprus haircuts (or scalpings, if you prefer), many major news organizations are reporting on Bitcoin as a currency of flight for panicked Europeans.

That's "Media Attention" - the beginning of the public investment (mania) phase of a bubble.

Does this mean I predict a price crash tomorrow? Of course not! After all, even if my read is correct (a long shot, to be sure), it only puts the bubble at preliminary levels, far below the peak. If the chart holds, we'll see prices in the hundreds before the spaceship comes crashing down, and the crash isn't even guaranteed to break through $10/coin.

But I feel as though the conditions that create a textbook bubble have finally begun to emerge.

Just one foolish forum member's thoughts. Take them however you will.
14  Economy / Service Discussion / Bitfinex is down [Update: Nevermind] on: March 15, 2013, 08:38:29 AM

What's up?

Edit: Fifteen minutes later, problem went away.
15  Economy / Trading Discussion / US Tax Return Tips (when using Bitcoin) on: March 09, 2013, 02:30:13 AM
I got into Bitcoin in December of 2011 - just around the time the price was at its nadir. Since then, I've mined, speculated, and bought and sold BTC-denominated goods.

And now, I'm finding myself filling out my tax return for 2012, and having to manually go through all these transactions so that TurboTax can calculate everything properly and send it off to the IRS.

I know the basics - translate BTC income to the dollar value from when you got the coins, and then when you spend it, count the price gap as capital gains/loss. But to do so is... quite a chore.

Has anyone written any tools to automatically generate this information from the transaction history on a list of addresses? Or, alternatively, found any other ways to make the process easier and less painful? It'd be a big help, if so.
16  Economy / Goods / Bundle of Holding - Fiction Collection by RPG Writers - Discount on: March 08, 2013, 02:18:28 AM
I'm offering the Bundle of Holding, an eBook collection of novels by a group of well-known RPG writers.

The titles offered include:
  • Hard Times in Dragon City, by Matt Forbeck (Brave New World)
  • Irregular Creatures, by Chuck Wendig (Hunter: The Vigil)
  • Fable of the Swan, Jenna Moran (Nobilis, Exalted)
  • Tournament of Death, Stephen D. Sullivan (D&D/AD&D, Chill)
  • Hexcommunicated, by Rafael Chandler (Scorn, Spite)
  • Playing for Keeps, by Mur Lafferty (the Warcraft and WoW tabletop RPGs)
  • Mindjammer, by Sarah Newton (Mindjammer, Legends of Anglerre)
  • Hero Worship, by Derek Pearcy (In Nomine)
  • Birth of the Dread Remora, by Aaron Rosenberg (Asylum, Spookshow)
  • Stay Alert, by Allen Varney (PARANOIA)
All Bundle of Holding titles are absolutely free of DRM, so you can move and copy them freely among all your ebook readers, tablets, laptops, and smartphones. Your purchase automatically includes all major ebook formats: .mobi and .prc (for the Kindle family), ePub (for Nook, Kobo, and other readers), and .PDF.

Bought separately on Amazon, the above eBooks would cost nearly $30. But when bought in this bundle, they're about $16. And I'm willing to throw in a small discount of my own, and charge only 0.35 BTC!

I've offered indie bundles on this forum previously, which I hope speaks to my reliability as a peddler of digital goods. But if you don't trust me, and have a good reputation of your own, I'm definitely willing to send first.
17  Economy / Service Discussion / Bitfinex Users: What are you paying for margin interest? on: February 16, 2013, 04:27:55 AM

Everything I've learned has told me that offers of double-digit annual returns with low risk is a sign of either delusional overconfidence or a ponzi operation.

Are people really paying over 50% APR to buy bitcoins on margin? Is there any way for me to verify this, without risking my money by depositing it at your exchange and trying for myself?
18  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Etiquette Question RE: Strange Transactions on: February 05, 2013, 11:14:59 PM
Hi all.

Occasionally there will be a transaction on the Bitcoin network with a ScriptPubKey that isn't a normal address, and indeed could be redeemed by anyone with enough cleverness to construct a matching ScriptSig.

As a matter of culture, is it considered incorrect or impolite to redeem such an output if you don't know who sent it or where it's from? Is it considered theft? Or merely treasure-hunting?
19  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / BTC Adoption Continues: Now Accepted at 4chan on: December 13, 2012, 05:48:10 AM
About two months ago, 4chan, one of the largest and best-known forums on the Internet, began a subscription service where for $20/year, users could bypass the requirement to enter a captcha when posting.

As of today, Bitcoin is being accepted as a payment method for buying such subscriptions.

One datapoint (Wordpress) can be an exception. Two datapoints (Wordpress + 4chan) can be outliers. But there's also the possibility that these are signs of the wind changing - signs that widespread adoption has finally begun.

Your thoughts?
20  Economy / Speculation / Bitcoin as Online Payment Processor/Trying to Calculate Minimum Intrinsic Value on: November 16, 2012, 11:41:49 PM
From 2011Q4 to 2012Q3, Paypal's total payment volume - the sum USD value of all transfers through its system - was $136 billion.

Let us postulate that in the future, Bitcoin/BitPay is able to absorb 10% of Paypal's market share in online money transfers - this is ambitious, but not delusionally so. In that case, Bitcoin would have an annual TPV of $13.6 billion. The bitcoin network seems to take slightly over an hour - let's say 1.2 hours - to finalize a transaction (according to the "six confirmations" rule used by most clients). This means that assuming the network's transfers are uniformly distributed (the most conservative estimate possible - generally speaking there will be spikes and the biggest spike is the most important), Bitcoin must be able to represent $13.6/365/20 = $1.8 million in value at any given time. Folding in the data that the peak day for PayPal transactions - Black Friday - has a volume equal to about 248% that of an average Friday, we can conservatively estimate the peak requirement of "how much value the Bitcoin network must represent" as about $4.46 million.

The most recent estimate that I have read - a paper analyzing the Bitcoin network - seems to believe that about 78% of Bitcoins in existence are either dead or in long-term storage. Assuming this ratio remains roughly accurate, the total number of coins available to represent transactions is (21 Million *  0.22) = 4.4 million BTC.

Thus: if Bitcoin is able to absorb 10% of Paypal's market share in online money transfers, the lower bound for the value of 1BTC is about $1.01.
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