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After a nice quiet weekend of slow increase in price, the manipulator is back.
With huge bid walls and fluctuating prices.
Get ready for the price to drop. That is the mission of "the manipulator".
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I was driving down the road and I saw a "Western Union" sign and thought...why do we still have those places around?
Bitcoin could easily replace Western Union all over the world. You just become a Bitcoin exchanger in your store and if someone wants money transferred they just go to an exchanger and send their money to the recipient's Bitcoin address. You go to one of any exchangers and exchange your BTC for your currency and you are all set. The exchangers could charge a fee that is cheaper than sending a wire transfer. Then bam...good-bye Western Union.
Am I missing something here?
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I am far from a bear and want Bitcoin to shoot up to $100/BTC but have seen time and time again that on long holiday weekends when people cannot get deposits into their Dwolla accounts until the following Monday, the price drops throughout the long weekend, further than an average weekend.
It dropped quite a but over 4th of July weekend, Labor Day weekend and even over Columbus Day weekend.
Those were 3 day weekends.
With Thanksgiving, it will be 4 days with no deposits.
How low do you think Bitcoin will fall?
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Why have no exchanges set up a Person2Person payment? You can transfer your money from your ING account to anyone else's ING account and get the money instantly.
Was this tried or checked into and people had a bad experience?
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My wife buys clothing wholesale from several sites. Each wholesaler gives lower prices for larger orders.
How much interest would people have in a website that sifts through wholesale sites, grabs pictures and prices of items and then presents them to Bitcoin retailers that can "pre-order" items and have those pre ordered items show up higher on the list or on the main page and when a certain amount is reached a purchase is sent off and the items are divied up.
For example, we have a shoe category. A pair of blue Nikes gets a lot of interest and moves up toward the top. Retailers seeing that the Nikes could be purchased cheap jump on the order. 100 Nikes are "pre-ordered" and those interested are given a day to purchase (send in their BTC).
Once the Nikes arrive, the site owner sends them off to the retailers individually. Charging shipping and handling based on the size of the order. Since most wholesalers are overseas (see China), a huge shipment sent from a long distance split into smaller shipments locally would still be a decent deal.
We could even have a common website for everyone and the person who lives closest to the buyer gets the money. That way the site gets known for fast shipping. Maybe even same day if a retailer is close enough.
The ideal being that Bitcoin creates a new method of making money other than mining. Instead of a mining rig you get yourself a storage rig and just bring things in and store them and ship them out when needed.
And hopefully the costs are all lower from combined orders and everything being paid in Bitcoin from there.
Thoughts? (I thought it out better in my head than I described.)
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I notice on some prepaid debit cards that you can do a direct deposit to the card ( http://www.creditcards.com/credit-cards/readydebit-visa-prepaid-card.php). You can also take out cash at an ATM. Bitcoin has the problem of chargebacks. If someone deposits cash into a BTC account and then gets the BTC and spends it, then does a chargeback...they can get their money back. Could you not use a prepaid debit card to transfer funds to it, take out the money at an ATM and do a chargeback? Or things like refillable gas cards that you can re-charge using a credit card ( http://www.shell.us/home/content/usa/products_services/shell_cards/refillable/). I assume that you could fill the card with your credit card, pay for gas with it, then do a chargeback and they could not get the money out of it. I am not trying to find a way to get free money or gas through chargebacks, I am trying to figure out how these are used without having the same problem that BTC does with chargebacks. |
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Let us say that you won the lottery and you want Bitcoin to succeed in the long term. You want to take some of your earnings, $10 million, and use it toward making Bitcoin a fairly popular and useful currency of choice.
What would you do?
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Let us say that you had a whole lot of Bitcoins or you were getting thousands of Bitcoins per week and wanted to set up your own personal exchange because you just do not want to go through the exchanges.
How would YOU accept payment?
Keeping in mind that people will likely try to scam you out of your BTC.
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All of the complaining about those who got rich on Bitcoins because they were in on it early can end now.
We are all early adopters at this point. When it was at $17/BTC people were pining for the days when the price was $1-$2/BTC.
People will look back on this price and wish again that they had bought at the dip. Bitcoin is here to stay, the technology is sound and has proven itself.
If it is just the tiniest of chunks of the US dollar currency, it would need to be worth several thousand dollars per Bitcoin in order to sustain its use.
With banks starting to charge just to make a transaction, their customers will seek alternatives.
Bitcoin is that alternative.
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Bitcoin is more robust and has more applications and technology associated with it than a year ago. That is all that matters.
The price can be wherever it needs to be, but it all comes down to how much easier it is to use as a means of exchange. And as far as that goes...it has come quite a long way.
The technology is sound. The blockchain has held on. Bitcoin will continue on for decades to come.
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It would completely fill a niche if a major game in development used Bitcoins for their in-game currency. They already have exchanges set up for in game currencies. They might as well just use BTC and allow players to use it. Also, I used to play these strategy games on my phone that pretty much had the same theme. You work your vampire/mob boss/zombie/etc and he gets experience which he then uses to buy at token/diamond/gem/etc to get better stuff in the game. You could, of course, purchase more tokens/etc to advance quicker. Which is where they got their money. But we could create an open source type of game like this where you need to spend BTC to get more tokens. Edit: I have created a Bitcoin Pool for anyone who wants to see something like this developed. Signing up is easy, you only need 10 mBTC to join the discussion (the 10 mBTC stays in your wallet). http://www.bitpools.com/?Video%20GameWith enough interest we can get something working. Let's do this. Here's an example of how it would work for developing a video game: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETCP8NeXasY |
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The manipulator is back!!!
But this time instead of buying a shitload of Bitcoins then selling them making the price go all screwy...he is messing with us by making sure that the price is VERY stable...
Man this guy is diabolical!
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I am going on vacation in a month in Costa Rica so I started e-mailing local hotels and B&Bs asking if they accept Bitcoins or if they have never heard of them if they would check them out as I want to use Bitcoins for my trip.
Most of my responses were along the lines of "We only accept credit cards or cash".
I did get one response that said she had looked into Bitcoin and found it quite interesting, but that they were a new business and needed to have cash. I replied with a short message saying that bit-pay allows you to accept Bitcoin and have it automatically converted to cash, cheaper than a credit card. (this was yesterday, no response yet).
So I was wondering...what if more people started e-mailing these merchants? If someone were to get an e-mail once a week or so from someone asking if they accept Bitcoins, they may give it some careful consideration.
What if we put together an e-mail group or something where people offer up e-mails of places they would like to go spend their Bitcoins with a small description, then have several different people periodically send e-mails. Hotels, bars, restaurants, stores, websites, whichever. Maybe set up a program so that once someone e-mails a merchant the e-mail goes to the bottom of the list and does not come up until everyone else has been e-mailed (so they do not get 10 e-mails in one day asking about Bitcoins).
These would be places that people would actually want to spend their Bitcoins, so it is not like the merchant would start accepting them and then nobody uses them.
Thoughts?
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Basic question. This will clear it up once and for all. Is Democracy a bad idea?
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I see this all the time when mentioning getting rid of the income tax. "Hope your house isn't burning down, there will be no firemen to come help you." or the idea that you would have a huge pile of garbage because your tax paid garbage service would not show up.
Outside of the fact that the income tax pays for the federal government and fire stations, garbage service, etc is paid through property taxes, I still get disturbed by this.
Why do people believe that a fire station can only be run by tax dollars?
I lived in a county once, the population was a few hundred thousand people, that had a private fire department.
When I moved into my house I was mailed a letter with the private fire company's rates. I had the choice of paying $20 per month for full coverage, or there were fees for services. $50 minimum for a service call for small things such as a small kitchen fire or such and a maximum of $2,000 for a full house fire which it said that my homeowners insurance should be able to pay.
I have also had private garbage service at most places I have lived. I now pay $10 per month for garbage pick up. They come out 2 times a week and do a good job. If they did not do a good job I would just call another company.
My electricity is private. My water company is private. My sewage company is private. My current fire company is public. They used to be private but the county wanted to take over all fire services in the county so they snatched them up via eminent domain.
My property taxes are very low. I pay about $1,500 per year on a house valued around $200k.
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The goal of this is to find the "most fair" way of voting for how money for a group/city/state/country is spent.
In an ideal voting decision the outcome would be that 100% of the members vote the same way. But practically, that is hardly ever the case. If 80% vote one way then you are forcing 20% of the members to spend their money in a way that they do not wish for it to be spent. This could be considered theft. 51% to 49% is far from ideal but is often used, leaving 49% of people dissatisfied. Not the best solution.
But even if you require 100% of people agree on something, there will always be that one or two person hold-out that just want to cause trouble or have an agenda which brings activity to a halt.
Overall method
So to the solution. I am taking the ideal solution of 100% voting the same way and adding an element not used in voting today...Time.
The solution is for everyone to contribute their money equally and then have a vote for where that money is spent. If 100% of people agree, then the money is spent in that manner. If only 30% of people agree on where the money is to be spent then the vote passes...BUT...you add time for the 70% who do not agree. So, perhaps you add a day for every 1% who do not agree, so you have to wait 70 days for it to be spent. Then the vote goes forward on a different way to spend that money, maybe it gets 50% this time. The first vote of 30% is dropped and the second vote passes...but it will happen in 50 days. After some discussion there are compromises made and more people are satisfied with the way the money is to be spent, it now has support of 70% of people. The 50% vote is dropped and now it will only take a month before the money is spent. This may be satisfactory or if they want to do a bit more negotiating to get it done faster they can work with the last 30% to satisfy them. Either way, they have time to work it out. If during those 30 days an emergency presents itself, they may push forth another vote and this time get 99% behind it (1% just are not willing to budge). It waits a day and the money is spent.
That is a very simplified summary of the concept, now how do Bitcoins come in.
Bitcoins role
Say you have a group of 10 people forming a club. They all agree up front that they will pay 1 Bitcoin a week into the club and they all have 1 vote. A program is written up where if they do not pay their 1 Bitcoin they lose their vote until they can make up for the lost weeks. The function for doing this would be for each person to have a 10th of an encryption key when put together creates the full key which can then be used to transfer funds. They each pay their 1 BTC for 10 weeks and there is now 100 BTC in the one address. One guy convinces 2 other people to vote to give all 100 BTC to him. They submit the votes and set up a transfer to his BTC address. They have 3 parts of the key and the computer then begins working on un-encrypting the rest of the key. Turns out, this will take several years so it is a non-starter. Then a vote comes up where they want to donate 50 BTC to helping children with cancer. They all agree on it and submit their part of the key. 50 BTC is transferred to the kids with cancer BTC address. They are now left with 50 BTC.
Then another person comes in and says he wants to join the club. The other members say ok, as long as he is willing to pay in the same share that they all have in at the moment, which is 5 BTC. They set up a new address with 11 parts to the key. They unanimously submit their keys and move over to the new address with 11 parts. They now have 55 BTC to spend. Another 5 weeks goes by and they now have 110 BTC. Some members want to set up a clubhouse with the 110 BTC. 6 members vote for it (the other members do not like the choice of the clubhouse location). They all submit their key and begin the transfer. The program begins to work on getting the other keys, turns out this will take several months. They do a bit more research and find a decent clubhouse. They vote again and 10 out of the 11 people are satisfied with it. The last guy is the chairman who really wanted all the money given to him and refuses to vote for it. Turns out it will only take a week to process through his vote so they go ahead with the transfer and start getting things set up. The chairman drops out and stops paying his dues. He loses his vote and it goes back down to 10 club members.
Now say that another 10 weeks go by and they have 100 BTC. They find another club that has a lot going on but their club costs 10 BTC per month. Each person cannot afford it but they decide instead to join the club as a group. The other group has 10 weeks worth of BTC in their account so they allow the new share in for 100 BTC with 1 vote. The same process goes through, they vote in the same way. 10 weeks go by again and the new club now has 2000 BTC. They want to set up a lodge on a large property for their clubhouse. The same process goes through for votes, this time the original club has 9 people who agree with one hold out. The new club has 8 people in agreement with one hold out plus the original group who is not in support until that 1 vote is unencrypted. They decide to go ahead with it and transfer the money with the delayed time.
2 years go by and the group now has 10,000 BTC in their coffers. They find a group that requires 100 BTC a week and is working on something big. They join them in the same way that the original group joined the new one and go through the process. The huge group has 100,000 BTC and decides to buy a large lot of land and split it up equally among all of the 10 shares. They find 3 different locations and various votes go through, each taking a long time. They get 8 votes for one final lot that costs 100,000 BTC but it takes another 10 weeks to get it to go through thanks to the hold outs. They buy the land and have 10,000 still in their coffers. With this they begin voting on clearing out the land, marking property lines, getting started on a community plan, etc. They essentially have the means to go forward on their own town set up with a system of collecting money to pay for things and voting on how that money is spent. And they can team up with other larger groups as wanted. People can drop out at any time and not pay, etc.
tl;dr - Set up a system for spending Bitcoin as a group which requires each person to have a piece of a key. If 100% agreement is not there, the keys of the hold outs are unencrypted over time giving time to compromise based on how many people are in agreement.
There are a few small things here and there that I have considered but did not want to make it any longer than it already is.
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Ok, my numbers are not exact mainly because I am lazy and do not wish to waste my time finding the exact numbers. I have taken the calculations from this thread for this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=45882.0I keep seeing how Bitcoin needs over a million USD per month to maintain the current price. Running the numbers based on the amount of Bitcoins created times the current price that would seem like simple math. In fact, it is not. Only those who are trading Bitcoin are affecting the price in relation to the various currencies. So everyone else is just using Bitcoin as a currency like it was meant to be. Doing a broad assumption I am throwing out the figure that there are 1 million Bitcoins in the trade exchanges. This is based on MtGox having 432k BTC back in June and it was estimated that they have around 600k BTC now. And I figured the other exchanges may add up to at most around 400k BTC. So that makes 1,000,000 BTC being traded at the exchanges. This is out of over 6,000,000 BTC in existence. This means that 1 million BTC that are traded affect the price of the other 5 million in terms of a currency. So, taking the figure from the other thread that $1 million needs to come into the economy each month and divide it by the portion that is actually being traded (1/6th) and you get $166k. Divide that by 30 and you get $5,500 per day. Only 1200 new Bitcoins need to be purchased daily to maintain the current price levels. This is why when we get a sudden influx of people buying BTC the price swings so much. Over the next year we only need 365 people to invest $5,500 each to maintain the current price. And then the rate gets cut in half and it will be down to $2750 per day. That is not much inflation for such a growing community. If someone wants to tweak my numbers with more accurate findings then I will update the OP. |
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