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1  Economy / Collectibles / [Interest Check] Lealana 10 LTC and 25 LTC coins on: May 03, 2017, 05:14:05 PM
Is there interest in the 10 LTC and 25 LTC Lealana coins?
I have a few available, mint untouched from Smoothie, stored away until now.
2  Economy / Speculation / Chainsaw Analysis on: January 05, 2017, 05:38:03 PM
Volatility (and price!) are up, which means many more trading opportunities.

Here's a centralized Bitcointalk thread for such discussions.

Some will be posts here.
When warranted, I'll link to written up steemit articles.
More often, I'll share a link to my livestream if I am in front of the chart performing analysis. When this is going on, all are invited to join the stream with questions.

Where to find me:

Steemit (interactive articles, often linked to videos): https://steemit.com/@chainsaw

Twitch (videos): https://www.twitch.tv/angrygumball

Youtube (videos, livestreams): http://www.youtube.com/user/russeljc79/live

When new content is delivered, I'll post a relevant link.

Note: RyninDaClem built an excellent, free paper trading app for Bitcoin. You can sign up at http://bit-sim.trade. It's a no-cost way to practice your trading - I hope to see you all there!

Disclaimer: The information contained within this thread (hereinafter collectively referred to as “Information”) is provided for informational and educational purposes only. The Information should not be construed as investment / trading advice and is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities mentioned.
3  Economy / Speculation / $GBTC Speculation, Information, and Cogitation on: May 07, 2015, 07:23:34 PM
Intended for speculation, analysis and discussion specific to the $GBTC investment vehicle or its price activity.
If you're obsessively refreshing the $GBTC quote page or trade history, share your neuroses here :-)

Listing current OTC Bids, Asks, Price: http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote
Orders < 100 shares not guaranteed to appear.

More detailed order history:
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&type=Time%26Sales&SA=quotes&symbol=GBTC&qm_page=93229

Courtesy of phoenix1, "best so far for charts and NAV of GBTC":
http://tradeblock.com/markets/igsc/xbt-usd/1h/

4  Economy / Speculation / GBTC market sale at $175 sets new ATH at $1750 / BTC on: May 05, 2015, 03:23:56 AM
For most of the day I believed I held the record with my $1337 rate for 17 shares.  It appears that 1 1/2 hours prior, 12 (?) shares sold at $1750/BTC.
The odd data discrepancies now have probable explanations, dealing with a combination of outlier filtering, low market liquidity, and complex OTC rules.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/34vuku/congratulations_bitcoin_on_your_new_ath_133700/
5  Economy / Goods / Marigold Essentials - All Natural Lip Balm, Deodorant - buy with Bitcoin on: March 27, 2014, 02:03:43 PM
I've got this friend I'm jealous of; she can brew a far better batch of beer than I.
She's good at the art of refining, improving - she knows that the quality of the ingredients you put in affect the quality of the end product.

Now she is applying that same craftsmanship to making all-natural lip balms and deodorant creams.

Marigold Essentials (BTC payment accepted)
Marigold Essentials - Etsy Store

These products are free of metal or chemicals, smell pleasant, and most importantly...work at the jobs they are intended.
Here's a great opportunity to spend some of your Bitcoins on your wife, girlfriend, or yourself.

In my opinion she's not charging enough; this is more like a boutique offering. But I encouraged her to post her offerings in a Bitcoin-friendly market, to see if it generates any additional sales.
So please, click those links, check out what's being offered.  If it's for you, buy a few! Or maybe let that friend, who was looking for juuuuust this sort of thing, know about it.

I think these are great offerings, and fill a niche product that isn't all that available, at a great price.
The big challenge in my mind, is getting the word out. So if you're impressed after checking out Marigold Essentials, please, help spread the word if you know someone that might be interested.

Entrepreneurs - There are opportunities here for larger-purchase orders. Resale at a local boutique, salon immediately come to mind. Shoot me a PM if you're interested in exploring anything more complicated than an order, and we'll see where it goes! I'm happy to brainstorm with you, serve as a middleman, or put you directly in touch with the owner of Marigold Essentials.

A tiny bit more info for those of you still reading  Grin

The lip balm (pictured below) contains:
candelilla wax, coconut oil, olive oil, vitamin e oil, essential oil, all natural, vegan


The deodorant cream (pictured below) contains:
arrowroot starch, coconut oil, baking soda, shea butter, vitamin E oil, essential oils



Oh, and if you have any questions, feel free to ask below. If I don't know the answer, I can ask and find out for you.
6  Economy / Service Discussion / Bitcoin Exchanges - is it time to move to mBTC? on: November 27, 2013, 05:56:41 PM

First, credit where credit is due: rpietila suggested moving to mBTC months back. Being a bit ahead of his time, the suggestion was not well received.

I think we're at a point where the price listing is adversely affecting Bitcoin's price.

The people I talk to that are just getting in are saying things to me like:
"I'd rather have one of the virtual currencies. Feels a lot better to have more than 1 of something."
"Yeah but at xxx-hundred per Bitcoin? That's just too expensive."

It's not their fault - we get conditioned to see certain prices, from our other experiences, and view them as expensive. While there is no actual change in the valuation of the good, in my view it can certainly help price, for the reasons above, and more.  Hell, stock splits are common practice.  People wouldn't want to buy shares of Berkshire-Hathaway if it were $10000/share.
The same mental barrier could hold back future investments in Bitcoin.

Now normally, that wouldn't seem like such a big deal. Except we're amidst this mania phase. Tons of new money coming in.
Then they get this sticker shock...and invest in some other virtual currency, with no appreciation for what it is and whether it holds long term value.
Some of these people will get burned, badly. That's not good for the Bitcoin, or virtual currency community as a whole.

I think I've seen a growing consensus among the BitcoinTalk community to see this change. The problem is, we don't work at Gox, or Bitstamp, or BTC-China.  We need that right person to take this initiative and get in contact with someone that works. Get the ball rolling.

I'm not that person. My hope is that a thread focused solely on this goal will get the message to these exchanges in one of two ways:
1) Someone else that does have contacts with those exchanges will see this and begin those conversations.
2) Enough interest will be garnered in this thread that representatives from those exchanges will take notice, and act.
7  Economy / Goods / CLOSED: [WTS] Chainsaw's 1 BTC Brass S1 [NG] (Holo Error) on: November 17, 2013, 03:54:02 PM
Up for sale is a 1 BTC 'Casacius' holo error. (The repeating text in the background of the hologram is misspelled as CASACIUS instead of CASASCIUS.)

Asking Price: 5 BTC 5.5

Related, separate listings:
1 BTC S1 [MS-65]
1 BTC S1 [MS-66]
Other offerings are enumerated here.

The front:


The back:


For historical price comparisons, and possibly other same-offerings at lower prices, check the Bitcoin Collectible Marketplace thread.

I don't intend to insult experienced coin collector's intelligence, but I realize that for many investors, Bitcoins have been their first experience with buying premium coins.
I wanted to make sure the photos captured the natural toning that exists on the "B" (front?) side of the coin.
What impact will this have on today's value, and the future value of the coin? That's a holy war that people far smarter than me argue on both sides of.
Here's a nice article discussing both viewpoints.

What is certain is that some niche of collectors prize toning, especially when over the years, it develops, naturally, into a beautiful specimen. Here's a toned MS-64 Morgan Dollar selling for big bucks.

This is far from a guarantee, so I put toned coins into a more speculative category - having a potentially smaller buyers market, but along with that, the potential for larger, long term gains.  (I'd be thrilled if johnniewalker chimed in on this subject here - he has extensive experience in coins and could probably add a lot of detail I'm not covering here.)

One last thing. Do not buy this coin with the intention of cleaning it! (If you're highly experienced, know the risk you are assuming, and use non-damaging methods, suit yourself.)  A tragic and common mistake new investors make is thinking "Oh, I can make this look nicer, and improve the value of the coin."  The act of polishing, scrubbing, or wiping a coin has a very high chance of creating new scratches on the coin.  At best, that will reduce its grade.  More often, these marks provide a telltale sign of a cleaned coin. From that point on, the coin will not be gradable, and its future value capped.

List of all S1 Active 1 BTC
Link showing coin balance

Feel free to ask questions, or make offers! I promise you won't hurt my feelings :-)
Even better, if you have a similar coin...I invite you to undercut me. I'll happily provide a link to your posting from the marketplace thread.

I warmly invite your purchases, offers, and competitive offerings.  
Each data point lowers the barrier to entry into this collectible marketplace, allowing it to grow.

Happy shopping, and by all means, if there are any questions I've left unanswered, feel free to ask below.

Most especially with this piece, I'm extremely interested to see how the market responds. Will this coin get snapped up before other 1 BTC Brass S1 [NG], or at the end? Do Bitcoiners prize toning, shun it, or remain undecided?  Time to find out :-)

-Chainsaw
8  Economy / Goods / CLOSED: [WTS] Chainsaw's 5 BTC Brass S1 [NG] (Holo Error) on: November 16, 2013, 08:36:01 PM
Up for sale is a 5 BTC 'Casacius' holo error. (The repeating text in the background of the hologram is misspelled as CASACIUS instead of CASASCIUS.)

Asking Price: 8.5 BTC 9 10

A graded 5 BTC S1 [MS-65] is available here.
Other offerings are enumerated here.

There are around 3600 1 BTC S1 with holo error. There are only about 600 remaining 5 BTC S1 with holo error.

The coin has not yet been graded. I hope the pictures capture the quality.  This coin is in beautiful shape, and could grade quite well.

The front:


The back:


For historical price comparisons, and possibly other same-offerings at lower prices, check the Bitcoin Collectible Marketplace thread.

Here's a link specifically to my other offerings.

List of all S1 Active 5 BTC
Link showing coin balance

Feel free to ask questions, or make offers! I promise you won't hurt my feelings :-)

I warmly invite your purchases, offers, and competitive offerings.  
Each data point lowers the barrier to entry into this collectible marketplace, allowing it to grow.

Happy shopping, and by all means, if there are any questions I've left unanswered, feel free to ask below.

-Chainsaw
9  Economy / Goods / CLOSED: [WTS] Chainsaw's 1 BTC MS-65 Casacius Holo Error on: November 14, 2013, 06:30:18 PM
Up for sale is a 2011 1 BTC 'Casacius' holo error. (The repeating text in the background of the hologram is misspelled as CASACIUS instead of CASASCIUS.)
Other offerings are enumerated here.

Asking Price: 6.5 BTC 9 7 8 9 10

The coin has been graded by ANACS as MS-65. Such a rating represents an Uncirculated state. Here is the official definition (ANA) of MS-65:
"A coin graded MS-65 shows an attractive high quality of luster and strike for the date and mint.
May have a few small scattered contact marks, or two larger marks may be present.
One or two small patches of hairlines may show.
Noticeable light scuff marks may be seen on the high points of the design. Overall quality is above average and eye appeal is very pleasing..."

As for provenance, this particular coin came directly from Casascius to myself. From there, it was graded prior to the discovery of the pseudo-exploit.
I know of less than 10 other coins that were graded prior to the DefCon failed-but-close security breach.

The front:


The back:


For historical price comparisons, and possibly other same-offerings at lower prices, check the Bitcoin Collectible Marketplace thread.

Here's a link specifically to my other offerings.

List of all First Version Active 1 BTC
Link showing coin balance

A final note on pricing. Most of my offerings do not yet have a well-established market price.
Going first when selling runs a risk - ask too much, you seem greedy. Ask too little, your wares are snapped up, only to be flipped.
I greatly desire to establish a baseline for as many Bitcoin specie as possible...but I do have long-term holding intentions for my collection.

So, my intention is to limit each offering to 1, slowly decreasing the asking price over time, until one is sold.
Anywhere along the way, feel free to ask questions, or make offers! I promise you won't hurt my feelings :-)
Even better, if you have a similar coin...I invite you to undercut me. I'll happily provide a link to your posting from the marketplace thread.

Goal #1 is in establishing market prices. The more sellers we have, the faster we can get there.
Goal #2 is a first-sale of each of these coins.  If we can get to price discovery without a sale of one of my coins, the main objective will still be achieved.

I warmly invite your purchases, offers, and competitive offerings.  
Each data point lowers the barrier to entry into this collectible marketplace, allowing it to grow.

Happy shopping, and by all means, if there are any questions I've left unanswered, feel free to ask below.

-Chainsaw
10  Economy / Goods / CLOSED: [WTS] Chainsaw's 1 BTC MS-66 Casacius Holo Error on: November 14, 2013, 06:30:03 PM
Up for sale is a 2011 1 BTC 'Casacius' holo error. (The repeating text in the background of the hologram is misspelled as CASACIUS instead of CASASCIUS.)  Other offerings are enumerated here.

Asking Price: 13.5 BTC 20 14 16 17 18 20

The coin has been graded by ANACS as MS-66. Such a rating is one you will only find in uncirculated coins, reflecting a higher-than-average quality.
Here is the official definition (ANA) of MS-65, which this coin exceeds:
"A coin graded MS-65 shows an attractive high quality of luster and strike for the date and mint.
May have a few small scattered contact marks, or two larger marks may be present.
One or two small patches of hairlines may show.
Noticeable light scuff marks may be seen on the high points of the design. Overall quality is above average and eye appeal is very pleasing..."

As for provenance, this particular coin came directly from Casascius to myself. From there, it was graded prior to the discovery of the pseudo-exploit.
I know of less than 10 other coins that were graded prior to the DefCon failed-but-close security breach.

To my knowledge, only 2 other MS-66 holo errors have ever sold - an MS-66 1 BTC for 15, and an MS-67 1 BTC for 50 - both by SgtSpike.

The front:


The back:


For historical price comparisons, and possibly other same-offerings at lower prices, check the Bitcoin Collectible Marketplace thread.

Here's a link specifically to my other offerings.

List of all First Version Active 1 BTC
Link showing coin balance

Full disclosure - the ANACS case has some scratches. I made sure to make these visible in the pictures rather than obscure them - you need to know exactly what you are buying.
You can rely on ANACS' reputation to know these scratches are on the case, or the coin would not be graded anywhere near its quality.
It is a personal, low-cost choice (less than $50) for a buyer to resubmit this coin, if they desire to get a cleaner case.
Know that in so doing, you will be forever forfeiting this coin's graded-before-exploit quality.
If you would like to go this route, I would be more than happy to help guide you through the regrading process.

A final note on pricing. Most of my offerings do not yet have a well-established market price.
Going first when selling runs a risk - ask too much, you seem greedy. Ask too little, your wares are snapped up, only to be flipped.
I greatly desire to establish a baseline for as many Bitcoin specie as possible...but I do have long-term holding intentions for my collection.

So, my intention is to limit each offering to 1, slowly decreasing the asking price over time, until one is sold.
Anywhere along the way, feel free to ask questions, or make offers! I promise you won't hurt my feelings :-)
Even better, if you have a similar coin...I invite you to undercut me. I'll happily provide a link to your posting from the marketplace thread.

Goal #1 is in establishing market prices. The more sellers we have, the faster we can get there.
Goal #2 is a first-sale of each of these coins.  If we can get to price discovery without a sale of one of my coins, the main objective will still be achieved.

I warmly invite your purchases, offers, and competitive offerings.  
Each data point lowers the barrier to entry into this collectible marketplace, allowing it to grow.

Happy shopping, and by all means, if there are any questions I've left unanswered, feel free to ask below.

-Chainsaw
11  Economy / Goods / CLOSED: [WTS] Chainsaw's 5 BTC MS-65 Casacius Holo Error on: November 14, 2013, 06:29:47 PM
Up for sale is a 2012 5 BTC 'Casacius' holo error. (The repeating text in the background of the hologram is misspelled as CASACIUS instead of CASASCIUS.)
Other offerings are enumerated here.

Asking Price: 12 BTC 14 15 16 18 20

The coin has been graded by ANACS as MS-65. Such a rating represents an Uncirculated state. Here is the official definition (ANA) of MS-65:
"A coin graded MS-65 shows an attractive high quality of luster and strike for the date and mint.
May have a few small scattered contact marks, or two larger marks may be present.
One or two small patches of hairlines may show.
Noticeable light scuff marks may be seen on the high points of the design. Overall quality is above average and eye appeal is very pleasing..."

This coin was graded prior to the discovery of the pseudo-exploit.
I know of less than 10 other coins that were graded prior to the DefCon failed-but-close security breach.

The front:


The back:


For historical price comparisons, and possibly other same-offerings at lower prices, check the Bitcoin Collectible Marketplace thread.

Here's a link specifically to my other offerings.

List of all First Version Active 5 BTC
Link showing coin balance

Only 600 (approx.) 5 BTC Version 1 coins were printed. Only a subset of those carry the holo error.
Note that this Mintage is significantly lower (about 6 times lower!) than the 1 BTC holo errors.
I am not yet sure the date at which they crossed over, but the actual number is less.
You can compare this coin's Mintage to other mintages in the Collectible Marketplace.

A final note on pricing. Most of my offerings do not yet have a well-established market price.
Going first when selling runs a risk - ask too much, you seem greedy. Ask too little, your wares are snapped up, only to be flipped.
I greatly desire to establish a baseline for as many Bitcoin specie as possible...but I do have long-term holding intentions for my collection.

So, my intention is to limit each offering to 1, slowly decreasing the asking price over time, until one is sold.
Anywhere along the way, feel free to ask questions, or make offers! I promise you won't hurt my feelings :-)
Even better, if you have a similar coin...I invite you to undercut me. I'll happily provide a link to your posting from the marketplace thread.

Goal #1 is in establishing market prices. The more sellers we have, the faster we can get there.
Goal #2 is a first-sale of each of these coins.  If we can get to price discovery without a sale of one of my coins, the main objective will still be achieved.

I warmly invite your purchases, offers, and competitive offerings.  
Each data point lowers the barrier to entry into this collectible marketplace, allowing it to grow.

Happy shopping, and by all means, if there are any questions I've left unanswered, feel free to ask below.

-Chainsaw
12  Economy / Goods / CLOSED: [WTS] Chainsaw's 25 BTC MS-65 Casacius Holo Error on: November 14, 2013, 06:29:33 PM
This piece has sold and is no longer available.

Up for sale is a 25 BTC 'Casacius' holo error. (The repeating text in the background of the hologram is misspelled as CASACIUS instead of CASASCIUS.)
Other offerings are enumerated here.

Asking Price: 70 BTC 85 75 82 85 90 100

The coin has been graded by ANACS as MS-65. Such a rating represents an Uncirculated state. Here is the official definition (ANA) of MS-65:
"A coin graded MS-65 shows an attractive high quality of luster and strike for the date and mint.
May have a few small scattered contact marks, or two larger marks may be present.
One or two small patches of hairlines may show.
Noticeable light scuff marks may be seen on the high points of the design. Overall quality is above average and eye appeal is very pleasing..."

This coin was graded prior to the discovery of the pseudo-exploit.
I know of less than 10 other coins that were graded prior to the DefCon failed-but-close security breach.

The front:


The back:


For historical price comparisons, and possibly other same-offerings at lower prices, check the Bitcoin Collectible Marketplace thread.

Here's a link specifically to my other offerings.

List of all Active Version 1 25 BTC
Link showing coin balance

At most, 227 25 BTC S1 coins remain active. Initial mintages for S1 and S2 were about the same, but S1 coins have had nearly half redeemed, making them much more rare.

Note that this Mintage is significantly lower (about 18 times lower!) than the 1 BTC holo errors.
This mintage is also lower (by about 3x) than the 5 BTC holo errors, of which there may be up to 600.
You can compare this coin's Mintage to other mintages in the Collectible Marketplace.

The ANACS case has some scratches. I made sure to make these visible in the pictures rather than obscure them - you need to know exactly what you are buying.
You can rely on ANACS' reputation to know these scratches are on the case, or the coin would not be graded anywhere near its quality.
It is a personal, low-cost choice (less than $50) for a buyer to resubmit this coin, if they desire to get a cleaner case.
Know that in so doing, you will be forever forfeiting this coin's graded-before-exploit quality.
If you would like to go this route, I would be more than happy to help guide you through the regrading process.

I warmly invite your purchases, offers, and competitive offerings.  
Each data point lowers the barrier to entry into this collectible marketplace, allowing it to grow.

Happy shopping, and by all means, if there are any questions I've left unanswered, feel free to ask below.

-Chainsaw
13  Economy / Goods / CLOSED: [WTS] Chainsaw's 100 BTC Casacius Holo Error - Active Mintage of only 18 on: November 14, 2013, 06:28:09 PM
This piece has sold and is no longer available.

Up for sale is one of 18 remaining 100 BTC 'Casacius' holo error bars in existence. (The repeating text in the background of the hologram is misspelled as CASACIUS instead of CASASCIUS.) Other offerings are enumerated here.

Asking Price: Negotiable 400BTC 340 349 360 400 420 450 500

Because of the format of this specie (Casascius offering), it is not able to be graded by ANACS.

As for provenance, this particular coin came directly from Casascius to an investor that immediately sealed it in plastic and safe-stored it.
From there, ownership has transferred to myself, where it has remained sealed and stored.
I fully expect any interested buyer will have a number of conversations before a sale is made. Interested parties are welcome to PM me with any questions, or just ask them here.

The front:


The back:


Proof of ownership (I forgot to include this in the other pics - sorry!)


For historical price comparisons, and possibly other same-offerings at lower prices, check the Bitcoin Collectible Marketplace thread.

Here's a link specifically to my other offerings.

List of all Active Version 1 100 BTC
Link showing coin balance

At most, 57 100 BTC bars with the holo error were ever made.
Of those, only 18 remain Active - the rest have been redeemed.
Note that this Mintage is significantly lower (about 50 times lower!) than the 1 BTC holo errors.
This mintage is also lower (by about 12x) than the 5 BTC holo errors, of which there may be up to 600.

The relative rarity is greater still than the numbers given above, since only 18 remain.
Note the tendency for greater redemption percentages as denominations rise. This can only add further relative scarcity as time passes.
You can compare this coin's Mintage to other mintages in the Collectible Marketplace.

I warmly invite your purchases, offers, and competitive offerings.  
Each data point lowers the barrier to entry into this collectible marketplace, allowing it to grow.

Happy shopping, and by all means, if there are any questions I've left unanswered, feel free to ask below.

-Chainsaw
14  Economy / Speculation / Planning your Bitcoin Withdrawals on: November 06, 2013, 05:19:09 PM
While most of us around here tend to be long-term bullish on Bitcoin’s future, nobody knows for certain what its value will be in one year, five years, or ten years.  With an investment where the upside potential is easily hundred-fold, and the downside risk is one-fold (100% of your original investment),deciding how much to withdraw on the way up can be a torturous problem.

The ultimate goal is to find your personal balance between these two questions:

-If Bitcoin goes to $0 tomorrow, will I be able to live with the gains I locked in up to this point?
-If Bitcoin firmly establishes itself, reaching global equilibrium with other currencies, will I be able to live with the number of Bitcoins I sold along the way?

I use a spreadsheet to help play around with different withdrawal amounts. Its general approach is this: For every X% Bitcoin appreciates in value, sell Y% of my remaining Bitcoins.  Adjusting X% controls the granularity – how often and sizable each transaction is.  Adjusting Y% controls how much profit is realized on the way up, rather than left for future gains.

If you'd like your sells to have potential rebuy points, you can go a bit further, and set up the Rebuy tab.  It will generate rebuys for each of your sell points.  If you keep it updated, it can serve as a good parity check to ensure your order book is correct, while guiding the bids and asks.

Feel free to adjust the numbers in the green boxes, and play around for yourself.  If you end up using it to track your funds, you'll want to make sure to make a personal copy first, and ensure your privacy settings are as you'd like them.  (Oh, and if you find a bug or mistake, please shoot me a PM!)

2017: Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy

Mostly for posterity (for now at least), a link to the original spreadsheet:

Version 1 - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqpoRK3q-_aKdHdwd0VubzdJbkQ5OF9GRlplVXRVY2c&usp=sharing
Version 2 - Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy spreadsheet.

I don't think of this spreadsheet or plan as a trading strategy, such as entering and exiting the market based on movements above and below weighted averages. You could consider it a very long-term trading strategy whose aim is buy-and-hold, with the only trading done being to incrementally lock in gains at predefined price targets.  If you want to get creative, you could make a copy for your conservative long term withdrawals, and a separate copy, having far more aggressive rebuy targets for the trading portion of your portfolio.

Just know that this plan can exist for your long term planning, and you can still trade funds on a shorter time-frame, realizing BTC-based gains and losses along the way.

And of course, remember that your trading strategy must align with your broader-still investment strategy, consider tax implications, etc. That's not really the aim of this tool, or thread.  Here I hope to explore the various uses or strategies that people have found beneficial.  Hopefully people will be able to pick up a few new ideas that they can then evaluate and/or integrate into their trading approach.

If you follow pre-established buy and sell points rigidly, long-term you put yourself in a win-win situation.  If the price continues rising from its relative point, you will still hold the number of Bitcoins you are comfortable with, while holding profits.  If the price downturns after you have sold some long-term funds, you have a choice.  You can do nothing, and continue to keep your long-term profits locked in.  But you'll also have the choice of reinvesting at a lower price, gaining Bitcoins, while setting up to resell them once again at a predefined future sell price.

I hope some of you find it valuable!
15  Economy / Speculation / Uncharted territory. What happens at $266? on: November 05, 2013, 06:10:42 PM
With some luck, this thread will only be relevant for the next few days at most (11/5/2013).  I figured it was time to dust off my speculation cap. I proudly disclaim that I fall into the uber-bull camp.

With only one historical price benchmark left ($266 Gox ATH), we’re about to enter uncharted territory.  The market will be looking for any tea leaves it can find for clues about what will happen next.  Watch the behavior around $266 very closely.  There are four possible scenarios:

A) $266 proves to be significant resistance, with attempts to break through being met with an increased selling volume. (We have not seen this behavior to date on this rally.) Such resistance would once again provide a healthy consolidation phase and allow potential buyers to reload.
B) $266 proves to be significant resistance, and this scares a few folks into selling.  Right now, only 10,000 Bitcoins sold would take our price back down to $210.
C) $266 gets steadily eaten through over the course of hours or days. The strongest outcome. If this occurs, expect the rally to gain steam.
D) $266 gets blown through by an impulsive move, most likely a high-volume buy.  If this occurs, there is a higher likelihood for a head-fake.  It will be hardest to know the long-term outcome in this case. I speculate the most likely is a pop above, a high-volume sell-off that follows (with the aim of loosening more bitcoins).  When the rally resumes, it will be violent and without warning.

If you're day trading, I’d suggest having a pre-existing plan in place for each scenario.  Here, minutes will matter.

As for likelihoods and timeframes, I predict we'll encounter B) within a day. After between 1 and 3 failed breakthroughs, D) occurs.
16  Economy / Service Discussion / Where's John K? on: November 01, 2013, 01:28:56 PM
Arvicco and I escrowed a 339.6 BTC transaction using John K. on October 23rd. On October 25th, the transaction was completed and Arvicco requested that John K release the escrowed funds.  From that point until now, we have heard nothing from him.  The maximum contractual duration he allows for funds release is 2 days, and we now a week beyond release request.  You can see that he has not been active since the morning of 10/26:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=31288

We have contacted theymos to ask about how to proceed. He recommended we post publicly, in the hopes that someone might know how to reach out to him.

In most cases, the most likely explanation for this scenario would be easy - the guy disappeared with the money, never to return.  But this is John K. we're talking about. 
Given John's rock-solid reliability as the goto escrow guy for BitcoinTalk, he deserves as much benefit of the doubt as is humanly possible.  The concern is that something may have happened to him in RL. I've racked my brain, and cannot think of a more likely scenario. 

I don't know if John's anonymity is important to him. Without knowing this, I'd like to be cautious and not have any information publicly divulged that might identify him.  Ideally, I won't even need to know this information myself.  My chief concerns are two-fold:
1) Gain an understanding for John K's mid-escrow, extended disappearance.
2) Recover the funds tied up in this escrow.

Could we use this thread as a centralized place to try to share any information that might help get to the bottom of what's going on?  Please mention / share it with anyone that might know him in RL or have alternative means to try to contact him.  Any additional recommendations, please share.

-Chainsaw
17  Economy / Goods / [WTS/WTT] ANACS MS-65 Casascius 2012 1 BTC - first-ever graded coin of its type on: June 27, 2013, 07:07:28 PM
I'm gauging interest in the first-ever graded 2012 Series 2 1 BTC Casascius coin.

I hope you can tell the quality in the picture, this coin was beautifully taken care of.  It was immediately placed in storage upon receipt, and is excellent, MS-65 condition.

Confirming the coin is still loaded (and was minted 7-28-2012):
http://96.35.127.219/casascius/?address=1Cc2grcUVdYZdy5GRPmm1ar6zAPegt9Bhh

An image of the coin: (If there is serious interest, I can snap some more pics, get both sides, etc.)



(You'll note the firstbits of the coin are repeated on the ANACS grading.)

For those that aren't avid coin enthusiasts, ANACS is generally considered #3 of all the grading agencies. PCGS and NGC are the top two, but they have stricter rules for what coins they will and will not grade.  A rating of MS-65 tends to command a fair premium over market value.  You won't get this rating from a circulated coin. In time, we'll find out how many of the first-physical-Bitcoins (Casascius) were kept in pristine condition.  SgtSpike has/had three graded coins, all of the 2011 variety. Their conditions were MS-63, MS-65, and MS-67.  (SgtSpike - am I correct in recalling you sold your 2011 1 BTC MS-65 for 15 or 18 BTC?)

My intention has been to hold onto this, but I have no idea what demand might be like.  So let's find out!
I'd be interested in BTC, LTC, but also offers of gold and silver (bullion or collectible U.S. coins).

If we end up doing the transaction, you'll get a copy of the receipt from ANACS, with its date and the ID numbers for the graded coins. (These will help you confirm the "first-ness" for future valuations/reselling/bragging rights).

If you're interested, shoot me an offer, either by PM or here.
18  Economy / Speculation / The Great Crash of 06-13-13 - How Low Can We Go? on: June 13, 2013, 11:59:19 PM
Is it over? We just getting started?

Two hours ago, I was expecting a long and eventful night. Now things have quieted down.

What do you think - calm before the storm...or was that it?

19  Economy / Goods / [WTB] Graded St Gaudens and CC Morgan Dollars on: May 31, 2013, 06:25:40 PM
Ideally in the MS-64/65 range.  Escrow is no problem.  Looking to pay in BTC.  Open to other coins as well. If you've got a collection, shoot me a message and we can see if we can work out a trade.
20  Economy / Collectibles / [WTB/WTS] Casascius Holo Error / Collectible Marketplace on: May 23, 2013, 11:16:28 PM
This thread aims to provide a centralized marketplace for buyers and sellers of limited edition Casascius coins. Postings with buy or sell offers will remain persistently. To keep the thread lean and transaction-focused, I'll try to clean up conversational posts from time to time.  My intent is to keep this intro up to date for a quick overview of historical price trends, along with a listing of current buyers and sellers.  Look to the posts below to find the offer(s) that give you what you're looking for. The start of the thread will have historically important conversational posts. The end of the thread will contain current market offerings, while also allowing for collectible- or transaction-based conversation.

Here's how I think the breakout and classification works.  If I've gotten anything wrong, please let me know.

Casascius Bitcoin Analyzer separates items by Version 1 and Version 2. Version 1 displayes Series 1 coins, with Version 2 displaying the remainder.

Series 1 stickers are those having the CASACIUS misspelling repeating in the background of the holograph.
Series 2 stickers and beyond do not have the holo error.  These coins are identifiable by address notation.
A small number have windowed labels, the remainder are identifiable by address notation.
Series 3 stickers represent 2013 releases, also identifiable by address notation.

Listing Notation

() items are optional
[] items are required

(Year) [Denomination] [Alloy] (Format) [Series] [Grade]


Year: Optional, coins are not categorized by year, rather by series. Never hurts to include.
Denominations: 0.1, 0.5, 1, 5, 10, 25, 100, 500, 1000. Inclusion of 'BTC' is optional.
Alloy: Brass, Gold, and Silver.
Format: Coin or bar. Coin is assumed, with bars only made for 100, 500, and 1000.
Series: S1, S2, and S3 - Sticker Series 1, 2, or 3.
Grade: NG for not graded, or an ANACS MS-xx grading, such as MS-63. NG is optional for Bar Format.

Put that all together, then add a buy price, a sell price, or both.
Your listing can link to your thread offering its sale.

[Listing] (Buy Price) (Sell Price)

Mintage and Historical Sales Data

Denomination Total Mintage # Still Active Highest Known Sale BTC Premium BTC Multiplier
1 Brass S1 NG 3615 3615 54.05.0
1 Brass S1 MS-64--87.08.0
1 Brass S1 MS-65--87.08.0
1 Brass S1 MS-66--1514.015.0
1 Brass S1 MS-67--5049.050.0
1 Brass S2 MS-63--2.331.332.33
1 Brass S2 MS-64--2.331.332.33
1 Brass S2 MS-65--2.331.332.33
0.5 Silver S3 w/ S2 Holo MS-64454513.513.027.0
1 Silver S3 solid MS-671300?3.02.03.0
1 Silver S3 Gold "B" MS-67700?3.52.53.5
5 Brass S1 NG 677 608 7.5 (private)2.41.48
5 Brass S2 MS-65 574 455 (private)??
10 Silver S2 NG 447 407 2515.02.50
25 Brass S1 NG 345 201 40.8315.831.63
25 Brass S2 NG 486 364 (private)--
100 Brass Bar S1 57 17 340 (private)2403.4
100 Brass Bar S2 86 57 None known
500 Brass Bar S1 2 1 None known
500 Brass Bar S1 - Opened 2 1 None yet
1000 Brass Bar S1 16 2 None known
1000 Brass Bar S1 - Opened 16 13 None yet
1000 Gold Coin S1 5 3 1250 *a2501.25

Details

1. Please make your offerings using the same table format shown in the Posting Buy and Sell Prices section.
2. Prices assume coins that were immediately transferred to safe storage upon receipt. If your coins are in a different condition from that, please note that in your posting.
3. Please state whether your listed prices are firm or negotiable. If unstated, the assumption will be that prices are firm.
4. Once you've gotten your order filled or are no longer interested, kindly remove your posting(s) to keep thing tidy. If you're willing to add data to the marketplace,
get back to me with the sale price, and whether to record it as a private transaction, or to include the identity of the seller. Having a verifiable seller adds trust to the reported number, and might help generate interest in your holding, too.


Current Buyers

Chainsaw - primarily holo errors (S1), but open to all
coco23 - 1 BTC w/ error
ffssixtynine - 1, 5, 25 BTC w/ errors
arvicco - All 1+ BTC coins, with and without errors
steelboy - All 1+ BTC coins, with and without errors
hawkix - 10 BTC w/ gold B
molecular - no current offerings

Current Sellers

Chainsaw - Brass S1 MS-65/66 in denominations of 1, 5, 25, and 100.
Chaang Noi (Goat) - all collectibles available
runderwo - 1 BTC holo errors (multiple gradings), 25 BTC S1 MS-62
coretechs - 5x 1 BTC holo error
SgtSpike - no current offerings
nightowlace - 0.5, 1 BTC w/ errors, 1 BTC without errors
Chainsaw - graded holo errors
Johnniewalker – multiple, rotating inventory

Log of Holo Error / Collectible Coin Transactions

Where links exist, the transaction was done publicly, with a known buyer and seller. In other cases, transactions were conducted privately, or the buyer or seller has requested anonymity.

DenominationSale Price (BTC)Seller
5 Brass S2 MS-65privatejustbtcme
2011 S2 Brass MS-63, MS-64, MS-65, 2011 S1 MS-63 - lot purchase10.0justbtcme
1 Silver S3 MS-673.0SgtSpike
1 Silver S3 Gold "B" MS-673.5SgtSpike
0.5 silver S3 w/ S2 holo MS-6413.5nubbins
0.5 silver S3 w/ S2 holo NG6nubbins (confirmed by SaltySpitoon, escrow)
0.5 silver S3 w/ S2 holo NG5.5nubbins
1 Brass S1 NG3twmz
1 Brass S1 NG4.5austin
1 Brass S1 NG4.5DM90
1 Brass S1 MS-648SgtSpike
1 Brass S1 MS-658Nightowlace
1 Brass S1 MS-6615SgtSpike
1 Brass S1 MS-67 (first-day)50SgtSpike
5 Brass S1 NG7.4private
5 Brass S1 NG7.5twmz
10 Brass S2? Gold-painted B NG25StarenseN
100 Brass Bar S1340Chainsaw
1000 Gold Coin S11250 *1Goat

Special Notes (as indicated by an asterisk and number, above)

a) The 1000 BTC coin was exchanged when Bitcoin held a spot value of ~ $800, and sold for $1,000,000. The buyer paid in a mix of fiat, BTC, and gold. For normalization purposes, I converted this to the BTC value.

PM me or post details of other graded holo errors if you care to, and I will gladly add them.
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