You're not being realistic. Trying to adapt current SEC laws to Bitcoin is like trying to adapt the the law to the Internet. It's just not possible to rely on laws from 80 years ago to govern technologies 100 years+ into the future. That is the problem with the set of laws, they are too old to make sense anymore and are now a detriment to progress.

I'm not saying we shouldn't have laws in place, but these laws are not technologically and socially unenforceable. You're not going to be able to keep the current set of laws and have a Bitcoin stock exchange.

Crowdfunding legislation doesn't really apply for Bitcoin. It applies for dollars and has limits for different kinds of investors and other rules which are technologically and socially unenforceable.

Trying to enforce the SEC rules is like trying to enforce these rules with a group of friends playing for chips at a poker table. You simply cannot stop people from playing poker, from gambling, from making deals like these and technology allows all sorts of barter deals which weren't even possible before. The current laws simply don't govern or apply to Bitcoin because Bitcoin wasn't thought of when those laws were made 80 years ago. Ask any lawyer and you'll see why all the centralized exchanges are shutting down, it's simply not possible to regulate with the current set of laws in place.

The problem is there is no definition of what Bitcoin is. There is no definition as to what a Bitcoin exchange is. The SEC doesn't even have jurisdiction to deal with it because its taking place on the Internet. So in a decentralized exchange there is no concept for where the exchange takes place. You can say the SEC applies globally or something based on the law as it was written 80 years ago but that is not technologically or socially enforceable.

Trying to enforce those laws would be like trying to enforce the law on copyright infringement. We who know technology know what is going to happen in this space and they who make laws should be consulting with us. If a lawmaker or if law enforcement would like to contact me and ask me about how to deal with this I'll give my opinions on the matter for free. If lobbyists or think tanks form then I'll help with policy.

But the SEC 80+ years ago had no concept at all of this. The crowdfunding legislation was designed for dollars and has no concept of Bitcoin. At best Bitcoin is barter, so when you try to talk about who is or who isn't an accredited investor and put dollar limits on it, that is not really possible. It's also not possible to stop people from forming unlicensed exchanges and it never was possible. So basically there is no enforceable regulation and the DATA authority has to explain Bitcoin and determine how to deal nurture innovation while also figuring out how to regulate when the time comes.

Right now it's not really time to regulate but when you shut down all the unregulated central exchanges then unregulated decentralized exchanges will form. I'd like a regulated decentralized exchange or a regulated central exchange, but its impossible to do it with the regulation on the books from the SEC. It costs too much to start an exchange, it has weird limits for accredited or unaccredited investors which cannot be enforced technologically or socially, so the only thing you can do is ignore the situation until a legal structure is in place to allow a regulated licensed exchange or deal with the decentralized unregulated exchanges until enough political pressure builds to pass the laws.

I wish there were another way but that is where we are. There also is ambiguity with mining Bitcoins but that wont stop people from becoming miners even at the risk of being declared money transmitters someday. There will be miners until the rules are clear on what a miner is.

First you have to lobby the congress and get them to pass a law to define what a Bitcoin exchange is and what the rules should be.

The SEC has no exemption for Bitcoin and it should either create an exemption or customized laws will have to be constructed based on the advice of the Bitcoin community and the lobbying efforts which Bitcoin businesses will have to work for.

I'll pretend I'm MPOE-PR giving some noob a beatdown.  Here goes.



What kind of moron lets their hosting company have access to their box?

And how many sites have already used their hosting company as a scapegoat when their site is hacked?  Anatomy of a scam!  Inject fake trades, wait for market to react, execute insider trades.

When will people get a clue and do everything like MPEX does?

GPG FTW.  (and stuff)

Failing last.  (and stuff)

So you want to start a bitcoin business?  blah blah.



Heh, all tongue in cheek of course, but I couldn't resist. 

Some thoughts on the whale's win today (conclusion: he had a 67% chance of pulling it off).

The whale can STOP betting when he chooses, so the probability of what happened today is not as low as it seems.  I haven't dug up the exact numbers, but let's assume:

1. He wanted to win 2500 BTC (after which point he would stop gambling)
2. He was willing to go down as much as 10,000 BTC before giving up
3. He was betting 200 BTC each time and always attempting to 2X his bet (this just simplifies the simulation). 

I ran the following Mathematica code:

In[6]=
bankroll := 10000;
target := 2500;
n := 10000;

bet := If[Random[] > .505, 1, -1]

outcomes = Table[profit = 0;
   While[profit < target && bankroll > -profit, profit += 200 * bet ];
   If[profit > 0, 1., 0], {n}];

100 * (Plus @@ outcomes)/ n

Out[6]= 67.23

So, 67% of the times that he applies this strategy he would earn his 2500BTC target before going bust. 

You're speculating (put options) in a speculative stock (AM) on a virtual exchange in a speculative economy (bitcoin), with no financial reports whatsoever

Hey Creativex,

 It's sad that you even have to field this crap.  I'm not so sure that changing the record would help this type of individual understand.  Some people just want to find fault in things that they weren't able to achieve... somehow it makes them feel better about themselves.

Take care