My favourite part is when people extol "stability" while conveniently ignoring abysmal volume.

Just standard stagnant, sideways trading.

I'm probs noob but what is a currency trade on the blockchain?

When are SD shareholders supposed to get their BTC?

Also, when is the SD disbursement supposed to occur?

You mean the 4 times last week that it touched 100-104 and was sold off on, never to recover, within the hour?

Ability to approach $100 but neither break nor sustain $100 is not a bullish signal.

Do you think you'll be seeing $165+ legit before Christmas without a major influx of new blood via media hype too?

Price couldn't break 100 for 5 days and then speculators found an excuse to dump but it's bearshit.

Sure thing.

If the market was as bullish as you describe we wouldn't be languishing with our heads below $100 for the last four days.

After it reaches the bottom.

It's been like 4 attempts at 100/100+ that have failed. Unless price begins to move up, sells will come.

Rampion is probably correct about the problem that will be caused by ASICs. When people were frenzied to buy AM Blades at 50BTC @ $120-130 USD it was under the condition wherein 13GH would mine you 25-30-40BTC a month. But in the last few weeks difficulty has climbed so high that 13GH will mine you ~7BTC per month, and this is just discussing the problem for people who have Blades, one of the only ASICs you can buy and actually have in-hand without a 2-6 month waiting period, and only discussing the problem in the context of current difficulty, and not considering the fact that $120-130 USD is pretty much out of reach right now.

On top of that, the market has lost a lot of its buyers. These large periods of stagnation and only being able to sustain $97-98 are because Gox is no longer experiencing the "several million USD are being wired to our exchange every day! " phenomena that it was after/during the 266-50-165 era. A lot of the money that _was_ wired to Gox is now sitting in the hands of the whales who profited from the bubbles and in Gox's rake box. After all, the only reason we're not still sitting at 60-70 is because _one_ person put down a 15kBTC market order to push it through $80. It's not because there were hundreds or thousands of people looking to buy, eating through resistance.

The dilemma with ASICs is similar to the dilemma created when lots of people buy at the top of a rush and momentum runs out and it drops hard after. Everyone wants to get out alive. It'll be worse with ASICs because people bought from frauds like BFL and Avalon who can't be fucked to actually deliver the product when it's ready because it's more profitable for them to mine on it themselves as "burn in", only delivering the miners to the people who paid for them when the ship has already sailed.

People are itchy indeed. Right now people are anxiously waiting to see if someone will market buy to carry us into $110s again. If it doesn't happen, we will definitely go down hard.  

3k sell and then 3k wall went up at 93ish, unless I'm mistaken.

There's nothing to figure out. When the price stabilized around 76 and nobody would eat the wall at 80 someone realized they could pick up 15,000B for like 1.1-1.2 mega USD buying from $76-82, with a high probability of pushing the market to at least $100 on the momentum. What gave assurance there would be momentum there? Bids were stacked _deep_ in the 60s and 50s since everyone was waiting for "the bottom". Since they want to buy cheap coins, where does all that money go if the price starts to take off again? After all, $70-80-90 were _extremely_ profitable entry points when we spent several weeks between $100-134.

It was a good time to pick up a ton of coins and produce a trend reversal as a result. So many people were waiting on the sidelines for "confirmation" before buying anyway.

Technical indicators don't mean anything when _one_ person with 7 figures in fiat on Gox can move the market to that extent, although I certainly expect they did use TA to time their decision.

As long as one mega/10k BTC can move the price $10+- and there are people willing to do so there's no such thing as a correction or a bubble. Market sentiment is wholly irrelevant when one/a few people can move the price at-will.

I think it's more profitable for whales to let the ask side build depth below 100 and then market buy rather than put up a 5k wall at like 94 that never gets filled.

~2.5k worth of sells in the last hour, taking out the wall at 90. Either monster bear trap or we're going down.

I wonder how hard it'll throw down when $90 is broken. It's strange though. The market has proven itself to have considerably more buying power than one would imagine from a dump from $104 to $65 where it sat in the $60s for 2 days.

A purely speculative market.

The biggest problem is the market lacks the natural buying power to move on its own. It needs whales to make real % increase/decreases happen. Though the guy who bought 15k BTC at 80 must be enjoying his $300k right now.

This phenomenon has happened rather frequently when the market stagnates. When the price isn't moving there's always people who are trying to play the 500-2k selloffs that happen periodically so that they can resell for a small profit, or in the event that someone does decide to munch the next wall, or there's good news that drives price up, etc.

The problem is if you're bidding at $76 or $75 and the dumps start then you're buying at the top. The advantage is that if your bullishness turns out to be correct you make more money than everyone buying at $82-83 to play for $90+.

Atrocious volume is not bullish though.

None of the whales want the price to go back to $90-100 yet. There is way, way, way too much money to take from people who will give up their coins when first $60 doesn't hold, and then $50 doesn't hold, and then $40 and $30 are realities.

But in order to do that, you can't just dump from $92-98. You have to depress the market over a longer timeframe in order to encourage a real demoralization of people's hopes for the future. If you don't demoralize people, there won't be fear, and there won't be capitulation.

Besides, if you can short, you can make a ridiculous fortune on the way down too.

That's why there are bull traps on the way down. If it weren't that way, those bull traps would be bear traps. There is _plenty_ of fiat sitting on Gox waiting for a good time to buy. After all, when $100-110-120-130 were the perpetual price point, whoever managed to buy at $80-85 on the last big sell off made themselves a fortune. So why aren't the market buys coming down, especially when you can pick up 10k BTC for less than one mega?

In my view, that makes the direction we're headed in remarkably clear.

Wall at 80 won't come down. It's been directly tested once and approached two other times. If someone eats it we might see $85, otherwise we'll stagnate here until dumps. If we see $85/90 we'll still see dumps.