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1  Economy / Economics / Re: Twitter ban, koo opens up. How will this play in Nigeriann business environment on: June 20, 2021, 07:34:31 AM
The countries like Nigeria and India were seen as one of the chief growth hotspots of the coming decades. This was because of the young, aspirational population and the abundance of resources. In both cases, there is a considerable English speaking population. These predictions were true from a time of globalization and multi-culturalism.

Multi-culturalism suits globalization. This means that a socially liberal ideology is inevitably a part of growth in the modern world. In the last few years, the conservatives and fanatics the world over have taken center-stage against liberalism. Liberalism of thoughts and habits are a good thing. A significant population saw these ideas as an attack on their "culture". This led to a revival of right-wing movements. While Right-wing isn't all bad, the problem is that conservatives almost always devolve into their monstrous form of fanaticism. This is why you can now witness the suppression of freedom of speech in these two countries.

From the OPs description, it looks like the Nigerian head of state is similar to the current Indian demagogue who love to make subtle threats to the minority while pandering to the majority. I guess history will be the best judge of people like these. All we can do is thank them for making these two budding world economies the shitholes that they were earlier.

I don't know about Nigeria, but hopefully, the Indian democracy will prove to be more resilient. This Koo app is an Indian app by the way and they started to gain a foothold after the right winger politicans in India started being called out on Twitter for their fake news. Interestingly, a lot of these same leaders were all praise for Twitter a few years ago when they rode on the wave of Digital popularity on platforms like Twitter, FB and Whatsapp. Doesn't surprise me the least as all Right-wingers anyways are the biggest hypocrites of society.
2  Economy / Economics / Re: USA dollar and USA economy are Not Same on: June 20, 2021, 06:52:43 AM
USA dollar Will be the Next  3-4 years best asset You Can Ever have.
How can holding cash be termed as an asset for 3-4 years, especially when the interests rates on deposits are negligible and inflation is slated to increase with the printing of money?

The World Elite Now try to save USA dollar but to do this the taxes around the world must go higher.
If taxes were to be rationalized, it would affect the levels of inequality and welfare spending. How it helps the US dollar is questionable? And why exactly does someone have to "help" the US dollar when it has the richest country and the most powerful army in the world backing it? If anything, the US Dollar needs to stop having such an over-arching influence. Throughout much of the past half century, we have already witnessed how the petro-dollars have kept the most ruthless regimes in place, helped to fund devastating wars and badly affected world peace and political stability.

The dollar needs to be disentangled from politics. The Fed by itself wouldn't be such a hated entity for Bitcoiners if they had done their job as an autonomous institution and not as the money printer for populist politicians.
3  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Introducing tokenomics into cities on: June 20, 2021, 06:00:39 AM
These ideas are some of the first and most obvious use-cases for moving towards a more decentralized future.

The push towards globalization integrated us and increased opportunities as well as earning. Yet, by consolidating ownership in the hands of a few, it increased inequalities to a large extent. Ideas like a decentralized governance of localized communities like cities with stake/ shareholding by its own residents may prove to be an ideal method of redistribution of resources and earnings.

One problem is who gives legitimacy to these coins? What is the mandate for someone to start a coin. Is it even allowed as per local laws and regulations.

OP, What do you know about MiamiCoin btw? Do you own it?

4  Economy / Economics / Re: Inflation and social mobility - there has to be a relation on: June 20, 2021, 05:06:48 AM
My thesis is that inflation can be a precursor of opportunity and that carries a chance for individuals to move socially. It also diminishes debt, which may be a factor as well.
I am repeating myself again but imo, there is no direct relationship between these two.

The way i see social mobility, it seems to be a result of several factors related to quality of life and access to opportunities. In a country or society, these things are decided by the socio-political system. For example, a judicious mix of fair capitalism and welfare state is the kind of system that provides maximum social ability.

Inflation does many things but it is chiefly an economic parameter that measures the rate of deprecation of money, in this case, fiat. Inflation directly affects businesses, wages, consumer behavior and most importantly, entrepreneurship. Those things in turn, can result in better or worse opportunities and thus social mobility.

Saying that inflation directly affect or ensures social mobility is taking the argument too far. The example of Venezuela isn't apt. In case of hyper-inflation, everyone is worse-off. Its a crisis situation and no measures of social mobility would apply. If an individual suddenly comes across a profitable enterprise due to a war (say, supplying water to both sides), it doesn't mean that war affecting social mobility can be a thesis.. Huh
5  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: June 19, 2021, 07:40:22 AM
To summarise, if bitcoin grows in value in the next few years, the amount of bitcoin they will have to sell to repay their debt is going to be only a tiny fraction of the amount of bitcoin they bought, being their debt dollar denominated.
If you think, it's the exact same scheme people were using in 2007 with housing markets: "buy a house with debt, use the house selling price to repay the debt cashing in the difference, rinse and repeat in bigger size".
The thought is scary and got me thinking of reasons why this parallel shouldn't be drawn. I'll posit that underlying assumption of The Housing Bubble was that House prices always go up. While a lot of Bitcoin enthusiasts love to have similar notions, most market participants understand that this assumption is not correct. They are mostly ready to manage their positions at the first sign of trouble. This is because Bitcoin is a far more liquid asset than housing.

Additionally, those in a position to take on debt based on Bitcoin positions are only a very few, maybe just corporations and not necessarily individual buyers as in the case of housing. Within the decentralized Lending scenario, where this is a thing on individual scale, the BTC is often over-collateralized or simply locked for a very small interest rate.

So yeah, thankfully, the similarities are few.
6  Economy / Economics / Re: Inflation and social mobility - there has to be a relation on: June 19, 2021, 06:31:41 AM
Thus, when inflation strikes the wealthy cannot just sit on the cash, they have to buy assets and that implies a certain risk. This risk may create opportunities to other to change their living. Is there any study about it?
To take your thought further, the question to ask is; If the rich invest in new assets to counter inflation, what opportunities do you think it creates for the poor? IMO, Investing in fixed assets by the wealthy to safeguard their wealth is not the same as entrepreneurship. Enterprises generate the opportunities that enable Social mobility. An enterprising person with or without wealth will do so without any restrains from inflation.

In fact, when inflation is high (hyperinflation), the cost of doing business is higher. This restricts entrepreneurship and thus, will hinder social mobility. On the other hand, with balanced inflation and deflationary emission, like Bitcoin, the entrepreneur would be much more confident to take risk and generate opportunities.

There is definitely a balance there somewhere which creates more opportunities for the economy as a whole. Though if you consider just the Bitcoin economy, I can definitely agree that Bitcoin being deflationary encourages people to Hodl rather than invest, thus decreasing opportunities within the Bitcoin ecosystem.
7  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Miami’s mayor looks to woo Chinese bitcoin miners on: June 19, 2021, 06:16:56 AM
I get that he wants to bring crypto investors/miners in Miami,but I'm pessimistic that Miami can compete with China.

Miami is already famous for the crypto conferences, right. And Miami isn't really competing with China as China is essentially kicking those miners out and they don't have the access to cheap electricity like they had earlier.

The reason this won't workout is because a lot of these Chinese mining farms run with bare minimum manpower which is paid pretty low for the maintenance and running activities. The labor laws and minimum wage requirements will not be acceptable to the so-called Chinese "entrepreneurs" who are accustomed to treating their workers like they own them.

This will work best if the barriers to Chinese miners essentially takes them out of business resulting in decrease of demand for miner hardware and cheaper hardware for American miners. The US miners can then take the mantle and afford to run additional farms.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Number of transactions declining in last 2 months. on: June 19, 2021, 06:10:15 AM
Several good possibilities already pointed out. Maybe someone should compile them. The Hodling maybe a reason. For example, The inertia of not having sold at ATH and then waiting for the ATH to even use Bitcoin for things you normally were doing already, i something that actually happens.

One thing that I feel is contributing is the decrease is shifting of crypto investment scene towards centralized coins and several other platforms. These "projects" keep mushrooming beyond anything we expect. After the bloodbath of ICOs, you'd think that people would learn their lessons and not throw money on repetitive, clearly scam projects on centralized chains. Seems that I am wrong. Psychology and greed works differently. People still continue to put money into these shady projects and keep getting rugged.

It doesn't matter to them as long as they can sell their tokens at a higher price within a few days. They then move onto the next one with hype. This has become a rinse and repeat for devs as well as communities. Its literally madness and it shows no signs of slowing down.

Earlier, If you had to put money into these projects, you needed BTC. Now, these people are content taking up any token as long as they can find liquidity for that in Uniswap. Hayden maybe pretty proud of his unicorn but I think the time isn't far when regulators will come down pretty heavily on the AMMs that are enabling these pump and dump schemes.
9  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The fall from 65k to $30k was the best thing to ever happen to Bitcoin on: June 19, 2021, 05:51:12 AM
My target price for Bitcoin is 15K-20K during the next few weeks. The party is clearly over, and investors should consider liquidating anything related to Bitcoin or short it.
Recent collapse proves that Bitcoin isn't a safe haven, store of value, or a hedge against inflation/market correction, but a speculative token that can go down 50% in a week
Shitcoiners like you who have only ever been here to post bounty reports and one-liners shouldn't really be commenting so confidently about the path that Bitcoin price will take. You have no idea what Bitcoin is about. All these ideas about safe haven, hedge, SoV are buzzwords you hear and then repeat.

So frankly, just make it easy for everyone and keep your uninformed, baseless opinions to yourself. If all you understand about Bitcoin is the dollar value, then you are the kind of people who are better off selling.
10  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Story of Bitcoin and Satoshi Nakamoto on: June 18, 2021, 06:09:47 AM
        Thanks to every country and everyone for join and support to the Bitcoin!
         You who like me can give me a little coin for buy some food and new computer. I will work hard for our plan.

                                                                      Satoshi Nakamoto
What the f### Joker-Toshi, This isn't 2020. Although, a lot of us would like to come to an agreement to take the clocks back considering how 2020 was eaten by the virus.

You are just trying to have some fun but this isn't even fun. Your grammar is too bad to make this acceptable level of fun. You really should try this in some local sub. The language wouldn't sound so atrocious and people may even like your parody. Otherwise, its just a lot of effort wasted. Satoshi had pretty good writing skills you know. Roll Eyes

11  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Economy on: June 18, 2021, 05:53:24 AM
There are lots of articles you will find online that have explained Bitcoin in any way possible. So saying that there isn’t much article to explain, well, I don’t believe that’s true, because I know there is. You just search for it using the right words and you will find them. There are lots of forums and platforms such as Reddit, Quora, and Bitcointalk where lots of questions and answers are written daily. Bitcoin is still a decade old, and we shouldn’t be expecting the adoption to be that fast, it is going to take time.
Quora and Reddit are not sources of peer-reviewed academic research. OP is talking about the hotshot economists who advice and influence the government policies. Like Robert Shiller is a Nobel prize recipient professor from Yale.

The economic importance of Bitcoin as a decentralized money which is not governed by the existing players is not just a challenge to the existing institution but could even be a balancing factor in these times of infinite QE. Unfortunately, not many business interests align with this vision which means there is no Academic interest in exploring this. It is really just a people's movement for over a decade now. And now starting to get some real ideological transaction with companies like Microstrategy and whole countries.

I think the academic scenario too will change soon.
12  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Investing in Axie Infinity on: June 18, 2021, 05:45:47 AM
I think it's a bit late to invest in the game unless you are one of the daily grinders like what @Johnyz said. Those who who built their account early in the game made tons of money and they still do. If you feel more adventurous, you can try newer blockchain games like mydefipet. It could become as big as Axie in a few months time.
That is one of the issues with games on blockchain. You will always end up giving off profits to the early grinders. I don't know how much of it is about skill. For example, I Axie, the more you explore and breed (and spend), the higher level your pets become. This is snowballing. There is little scope for competition without putting in a lot of money and that money finding its way as profit to early entrants.

Axie is really popular in phillipines and there is an article about it here. Reading the article, it seems like it has helped a lot of people  in earning money during the pandemic. Whole families play it. Pretty late to the party I think.
13  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Kraken exchange CEO takes a jab at Elon Musk over altcoin dethrone Bitcoin on: June 18, 2021, 05:29:54 AM
And, you know, I don't know how long Elon has been studying this but, you know, I think he's got some more studying to do on this topic.

Whats your thought and opinion about the statement?

IMO, Elon should have by now understood that Bitcoin's decentralization is important. He should have known the history of the blocksize debate and bitcoin going the path of L2 to scale while ensuring maximum censorship resistance.

Clearly he hasn't understood these things or this "green energy" question from his side would be over. The "Based on what data?" could simply be rhetoric or may even be a genuine question. I think its the former. He still fails to see Bitcoin as a phenomena that has never happened before and is yet to be replicated.

Once can only hope that he'll come around to the realization. The problem is that he seems to be really enjoying having all those people beg him and praise him for the DOGE branding. This open him up to Shitcoiners who are always ready with their "low-energy" alternatives with a foundation/ corporation behind them. Adam Back, Peter McCormack, Todd and others are trying occasionally. Mow doesn't seem to be making a difference (I don't know why but he never seemed all that genuine to me ever). Just makes pointless jabs at Musk's tweet. My greatest hope right now is on Adam Back and Saylor to engage Musk. He cannot be ignored and allowed to fall for the cheap medicines that the shitcoiners offer.
14  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: June 16, 2021, 03:24:59 AM
That kind of straight-forwardness is off-putting to many and they just love to close their mind to further argument, like @Jaysabi is doing here.
Sometimes guys like that do end up coming around, but sometimes they do not, so some members could get thrown off -- and I understand even with my own style, some members will sometimes get confused by the length of some of my responses.. so I do try to show that I am open to discussion and try NOT to get emotional about responses of other members because that would likely even make the matter more confusing.
That pretty much summarizes your approach. You spend considerable effort in engaging and i have taken inspiration from the conviction many a times. And LOL@ the self-awareness.. Wink.

Again, I cannot figure out if they are just selling some company shares that they already own or if they might be issuing some new shares or maybe both?

I surely have misunderstood the significance of various other earlier MSTR announcements, so I would not be surprised if I don't understand the actual details of this potential $1billion situation very well either.
In the earlier sales and raises, it was always explicitly mentioned that the proceeds will be used for buying up Bitcoin. This time, it hasn't specified that it'll just be Bitcoin. Additionally, this also seems to be a prospectus about what Microstrategy actually does as an enterprise. It also is looking to link Bitcoin to their analytics software business. Sample this:

We believe that our bitcoin acquisition strategy is complementary to our enterprise analytics software and services business, as we believe that our bitcoin and related activities in support of the bitcoin network enhance awareness of our brand and can provide opportunities to secure new customers for our analytics offerings. We are also exploring opportunities to apply bitcoin-related technologies such as blockchain analytics into our software offerings.

This seems to be a well-timed marketing push to generate interest in the company when all eyes are on them. This pretty much is Saylor's business strategy. While it is great that he is going all-in, I feel apprehensive that performance of Saylor and the company is getting linked to Bitcoin, at least for the short term.

15  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: June 14, 2021, 03:46:52 AM
the line of thought JJG is trying to push through, though in that typical non-endearing way that maximalists have.
--snip--If my ideas about hedging are off or incorrect, then I am open to hearing about that.  I still stand by the positions that I had already attempted to make in regards to what appears to be jaysabi's inadequate and inferior ways of attempting to consider hedging, and sure if I misunderstood what I considered to be largely lame-ass points, then please let me know what that misunderstanding might have been.
Your idea is not wrong. That "maximalism" comment was basically making an excuse for all Bitcoiners in general, LOL. Newbies and Nocoiners want Bitcoiners to be "nice" to them just like the Alt-coiners and scammers. They fail to take into account that they are nicer because they want your money and time. Bitcoiners aren't "nice" because there is no Bitcoin corporation trying to push Bitcoin to them. It has always been inspired by Satoshi's "If you don't believe or don't get it, I don't have the time to convince you, sorry".

That kind of straight-forwardness is off-putting to many and they just love to close their mind to further argument, like @Jaysabi is doing here.

In response to your post, my point was that bitcoin's value as a "long term hedge" is undefinable because bitcoin has an extremely limited operating history and therefore a "long term track record" has never been established because it hasn't been around long enough to have one.  What we do know unequivocally is that bitcoin's volatility is many magnitudes greater than the dollar's and that makes it a poor hedge.  You can't hedge the volatility of an asset by moving into an asset with higher volatility, that defeats the purpose of the hedge.  If you want to argue that eventually bitoin will prove to be less volatile than the dollar, fine, but I'm not interested in that speculation because it's unknowable. So like I originally said, bitcoin won't be an effective hedge until the dollar's volatility is greater than bitcoin's, which would likely not be until the dollar experiences hyperinflation.

What you are talking about is a correct but very narrow take on "Hedge effectiveness" for currency volatility; specifically Bitcoin vs Dollar. That is why you are repeatedly making the "hyperinflation" point.

Hedging is basically a Risk management strategy. Measures of "Hedging effectiveness" are both qualitative and quantitative. How to define it is something that the respective institutions' Accountants and Risk managers have to decide when they are diversifying into Bitcoin. As far as I know, those analysis are not in public domain.  What we do know is that multiple institutions have taken positons in BTC. The basic idea behind that "hedging" for corporations as well as individuals is what JJG said here:

--snip-- actual considerations that institutions or individuals might be making when the(y) choose to allocate some portion of their overall investment portfolio to bitcoin (whether we are referring to some kind of modest hedge amount, such as 1%-10% that I recommend for beginners)

If you are not trying to wrap your head around it simply on the basis of "Bitcoin isn't a great hedge against dollar volatility" in the short term, and does not have long enough history or the long term, sorry to say but that is just a stupid, Nocoiner reason.
16  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: June 13, 2021, 11:17:41 AM
What's most interesting to me is that they need to offer more than 6% interest on these debt instruments to entice investors into buying, whereas the earlier offerings were extremely low or no interest instruments.  This indicates to me that Microstrategy has to offer the higher interest rates because the risk of the bonds is increasing in the eyes of investors.  Very interesting change to the earlier offerings.
No need to be surprised as the two offerings seem to be different from the announcement. Those earlier ones were "Convertible senior notes". Buyers are eligible to convert them to MSTR stocks. (with some complicated terms that I did not try to understand). These present ones are "Senior Secured Notes". The interest is their selling point.

Oh my jaysabi.  I don't want to be patronizing, but you are nearly asking for it.

My post, right below your above-referenced The Pharmacist post largely responds to the concerns raised by The Pharmacist and also you jaysabi, seem to be reiterating The Pharmacists points without even attempting to account for the ideas contained my response.
By the way, this post is not meant as a personal attack, even though i use strong language.. I am talking about the ideas contained in your post, not you specifically.

Yeah, I didn't address your post because there was nothing in there worth responding to.
You probably are refusing to address JJGs post because the communication got personal.  Undecided

Talking about the "Hedge", it is all good to take the academic definition in account like you said. Still, Bitcoin's long term hedge against "inflation" or "dollar" can't just be based on contemporary understanding of economics. When countries and companies start adopting, it also becomes about not being left behind. This has been one of the fundamental strengths of Bitcoin that if one group wants to regulate or ban it, there maybe another group more interested in benefiting from it. We are at that inflexion point where IMF and BIS are actually taking cryptocurrencies into view.

Now if the small MERCOSUR countries, island nations like Tonga choose to differ, who is to say that the decentralized future won't continue to be promising. If it remains promising, then Bitcoin is your hedge. If you feel that it doesn't stand any chance against centralized policy, well then why are we even discussing this.

That, I believe, is the line of thought JJG is trying to push through, though in that typical non-endearing way that maximalists have. So, lets chill out and not let personal differences cloud over the end goal of a larger, well-functioning Bitcoin economy.

17  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Economy on: June 13, 2021, 10:53:47 AM
Being able to execute buy and sell orders on exchanges with no commission fee, may have altered the game, as far as markets being efficient methods of valuation go. This was a trend which began on crypto exchanges around 2017. And gradually spread to stock brokers.

It is difficult to quote conventional wisdom when the rules and mechanics of the game are in a constant state of flux.
I've been reading about these things and the way that markets work, exchanges play a very important role. Apart from the spot exchanges, commodity futures are a big stabilizing factor within the market. These exchanges are run by entities whose job and income comes from the commissions they charge for providing the platform.

Now if we shift this to crypto exchanges, those are also not really zero fees,are they? Don't the exchanges take a share of the fees. Even the AMMs like Uniswap take fees in the form of LP fees. So these aren't much different from the exchanges except that the fees are probably way lower compared to something like, say CME.

18  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Economy on: June 12, 2021, 08:11:10 AM
I think
The recent Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences or Nobel prize (as commonly known) was actually awarded to an economist (Fama) who claimed that markets are efficient and any prediction of it's movement is fruitless. Isn't the Bitcoin price random too?
Furthermore, we can even fit Robert Schiller's theory into it.
Schiller isn't really a fan of the efficient market hypothesis as he regularly calls it a half-truth. He is much more about sentiments and behavioral economics and I think someone like him would have had some academic interest in the phenomena. But he doesn't.

With such similarities, why isn't research being done in the Bitcoins? There's so little to read. We pretty much end up with Satoshi's paper which is more cryptography and less economics.
Exactly. Most are just opinion pieces when it comes to the "top" economists. I think none of them like this idea of Bitcoin being against the power of Feds. Policy and academia stay pretty close and really just feed each other. With the latest ideas being about that countries like the US can essentially print without limit, no wonder that they find Bitcoin's capped supply antithetical.

Other "researchers" are busy trying to become part of the next wannabe Po-"Something" currency which claims to solve the trilemma. Most times they get paid in tokens and it is way more lucrative than spending time on studying Bitcoin and the community.
19  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: June 12, 2021, 08:01:19 AM
At the moment MSTR is roughly 86% Bitcoin.

This is way too much for an industrial company, and way too little for an ETF-like firm.

I am still rooting for them, of course, but they are far from perfect as an investment vehicle.
We were having similar discussions on the viability of these investments and what Michael Saylor is doing. @Stompix and @Tytanowy Janusz, you should be here..LOL..
It started off with TJs post on investors sentiment toward Microstrategy. We are getting to the conclusion that:
This is indeed an all-in kind of bet. As per the announcement, this offering is covered only by "Microstrategy" and its holding companies.
It is interesting that with this 3rd offering, the interest rate being offered is pretty high for a planned raise of 488 Million USD. And those will be backed by Microstrategy and its assets, which will not include the 92K BTC held by Macrostrategy. What i am wondering is that whether Saylor can use the returns from Macrostrategy to service the debt of Microstrategy??

Thanks for this excellent thread fillippone. It'll be interesting to see what Michael declares on the 14th when this latest offering closes.

20  Economy / Economics / Re: Own a house or rent one? Quick survey! on: June 12, 2021, 07:45:19 AM
Owning a house depends on a lot of factors. For me, it was a no-brainer considering that it was a first home for our family including my parents. If i had the option to consider this as an investment, for example in cases where your father has already built a house in a decent enough city, I'd definitely accept the mortgage on one of those city apartments that have re-sale value. (Re-sale value is of course something you have to judge depending on country, state, locality).

The 40% payment of your present salary may seem higher but you have to bet on your own future growth. Be optimistic damn it, its a free market. That 100 USD you earn will soon become 120==>160==>200 USD and then the 40 USD payments wouldn't seem much. In such a case, I'd advise to increase the monthly installments and reduce the re-payment tenure. Make sure to check the pre-payment terms on your Home Loan so you can make big payments once in a year to cut down the Principal in the initial years. (If you don't understand this, then amortization will end up costing you a lot more.)

My verdict, A 15$ rent versus a 40$ mortgage payment to "own" a house, is a no-brainer imo.
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