|
Although this is extremely useful now, this would be mega useful if it included dividend information.
|
|
|
|
|
It actually is possible. My farm was hashing like a wildfire, but not solving anything, and no shares were being accepted by my pool. Somehow the block it got was corrupted and it just kept working on it anyway.
Once the stratum server send a new block it cranked right up with the business of grabbing shares again. Weird stuff, but it happens. Only hung me for about 8 minutes.
Normally when people talk about hard blocks, what they mean is that other people keep solving blocks before you do. It is not a more difficult block that is the problem, just lots of people getting luckier than you are.
|
|
|
|
|
Still working on removing the LTC squares. Turned out to be harder than we expected.
Now over 50 verified accounts and growing!
|
|
|
|
|
"The secret of change is to focus all of your energy, not on fighting the old, but on building the new" - Socrates
|
|
|
|
I would say the saturation point is NOW. Do you people realize hashing as gone up almost 300% in just one month? The real money to be made in the asic boom is gone. Anybody investing in companies now expecting price increases relative to the way AM went is living in a dreamland.
We're not even close. Maybe 10-15PH. With four cointerra chips per board, you would only need 500 boards to get 1PH. Easily doable. You could do it with one board if you use unicorns and fairy dust. |
|
|
|
Thank you for your comments. ...
Predefined inflation curve is fundamentally different from hard limit. Predefined inflation would avoid several difficulties, miners having to transition from inflation-driven to tx-fee rewards & lowered investment incentives of non-inflationary money amongst them.
I don't see the point in continuing the current rate, which would probably mean that we would have increasing prices forever. A rate of for instance 1-2 % would account somewhat for increase in population plus increase in productivity. Anyway, as long as the rate is predefined, it would be sound money. A high inflation rate of 13 % only means that all contracts regarding the future would have to have a formula attached to it. For instance, the rent for an apartment is 3.5 *1.13/12** months_from_now btc per month. I just don't see the advantage. Oh, i agree there's no reason to keep inflation high & 1 or 2% may be enough. It's the set limit i have trouble with. The future value is not related to the value of capital and durable goods, not related to the extent of trade, absolutely totally unrelated to the unmeasurable velocity of money, but as I said the reservation demand expressed in real value terms.
If i'm understanding you correctly, this "real value" is measured by demand, which remains in constant flux? With real value I mean just a way to measure it, as in the value of a house, the value of a month's work, the value of a month of food supply etc. Since we want to asess a value of the money supply, it does not make sense to measure it in money. I think this is where i lose you: The value of money is traditionally measured in other money. The value of a house is denominated in money (dollars, rubles, pounds, yen etc.). The value of each of these currencies is denominated in other currencies (rubles/dollar etc.). It is also possible to denominate money's worth in fractions of a house (or commodity bundle, or market basket, whatever). Here's my problem: If 1 BTC bought one house, and *another* house is built -- where does the extra BTC come from to buy that house? I'll strip this down to something manageable & hopefully a bit more clear: Assume there are only 100 BTC in our model, and 100 houses to buy with them. One BTC is valued at one house. Some new people are born, and slap some mud & grass together, building a new house. Now there are 101 houses, but only 100 BTC to buy them with. Has the value of 1 BTC grown by ~1%? In the alternative: A big tornado comes to our 100-house model, destroying half of the houses. Now there are only 50. How much is one bitcoin worth now? You can see (well, i can) that the value of bitcoin is closely linked to the health of economy, or (in the case of valuing it in other currencies) the health of other economies. It could be argued that the fiat is far more stable, due to the very fact that it is manipulated. I am confident that an Austrian school adherent would argue effectively that the size of a monetary base has no effect on real values. Certainly there would be differences in ledgers, but only as measured in nominal terms. A dollar does not represent a loaf of bread, but rather a potential claim upon an amount of bread that is unknown until the dollar is exchanged. I see no reason to assume that the velocity of money would be different if the value of a dollar was equal to 1 loaf of bread or 100. |
|
|
|
I made a little calculation, which excludes difficulty, and calculates the minimum div/share at a given LC hash rate, and a given total network hashrate, And I need confirmation on the validity of this. So:
Difficulty is the "tool" of the network to adjust the speed of block generation. This upward hashrate trend forces difficulty to rise in order to slow down block generation from 7min/block to 10min/block. This rougly means that whatever may come, block generation won't be slower than 10 min/block (@ this current upward total hashrate trend). Therefore we can calculate the lowest div/share of LC if we know: the hashrate of LC, and the total hashrate.
The simplified, diff-excluded formula is this:
Total LC mining profit = LC hashrate/Total Hashrate * 144 (a day is 1440 min long, so 144 blocks a day) * 30 (number of days of the month) * 25 (block reward excluding transaction fees)
And dividing this by 10million comes the div/share/month.
This formula does not care about the fact, that the LC hashrate/total hashrate ratio does not necessarily equal with the LC mined blocks/ total mined blocks ratio, but as far as I know it is pessimistic enough to let us exclude that fact too.
So the concept is: Block generation is fixed 10 mins (which is the longest possible generation time in an upward hashrate trend), and the LC mined blocks/ total mined blocks ratio equals with the LC hashrate / total hashrate ratio.
What do you think? Is this formula a valid way to calculate the worst div possible @ a given LC and total hashrate?
Expenses are not included and are non-trivial. |
|
|
|
|
A true Keynesian would recognize that any deflationary currency would be anathema to a system built on debt. It pretty much makes long-term debt unsustainable, as it has the effect of increasing the effective interest rate continuously.
Deflationary currencies are meant to be hoarded.
Hoarding reduces the amount of available currency for circulation.
The per-unit value of the currency increases due to scarcity.
The increasing value encourages hoarding.
It is a circular feedback loop driving values. It rewards savers and punishes borrowers.
Our entire world economic system is built on borrowing and debt. 99% of the world's financial institutions would no longer be needed without debt.
|
|
|
|
Adoption does not mean that people will store their life savings in bitcoin. It may simply mean that they use bitcoin financial services to conduct transactions when necessary, thus increasing the demand for money in circulation and thus increase the implied price.
Increasing implied prices would be an incentive to hoard, and would attract hoarders. It is already an observable phenomenon. They re-enforce each other in a feedback loop. Probably an outcome of Gresham's law.
Yes, I simply restated it with the current dynamic as an example. |
|
|
|
The only scenario where bitcoin prices should go through the roof is if it achieves safe haven status, which is a tough one for a 4 year old money scheme.
A deflationary currency is designed to be hoarded, but it does not follow that coins will never be spent. Day-to-day transactions will still occur and will still require currency to perform those transactions. Assuming higher future adoption rates as the currency matures, it will increase pressure to both hoard and to spend. The question that needs to be addressed is whether hoarding and spending will both increase at comparable rates creating an equilibrium. I would suggest that both working in tandem will continue to drive prices up in the long term. Working against this is the creation of new coins. I have not run any in-depth calculations on this but my gut tells me that adoption is currently creating a demand for coins to hoard and coins to spend that exceeds what is being provided by the current pool and the coins being created. If continued adoption rates keep their growth slopes then astronomical btc values are inevitable. If the rate of adoption reaches critical mass and goes exponential and becomes widespread, I think even the wildest projections will look puny. But that is a big pile of ifs stacked on a shaky foundation to begin with. Edit: Currently btc are being hoarded and fiat is being spent. This is an important dynamic to understand. |
|
|
|
|
No one is forcing anyone to play.
That said, suggesting that companies that are actually producing and delivering hardware are history while promoting companies that have yet to deliver is not logical.
AM has consistently delivered. Delivery comes with a cost premium over promises.
BFL has shipped quite a bit, although they have massive supply chain issues and a having public relations issues. But they have certainly delivered significant product.
Avalon has shipped enormous quantities already, not withstanding credibility issues. Early Avalon adoptors are btc fat.
I realize everyone wants 1 Ths delivered yesterday for 1 btc. But as it stands today, the asic game is highly volatile and risky. Every purchase is a gamble. Every one.
No one is forcing anyone to play.
|
|
|
|
|
Massive DDoS attacks on popular gambling sites.
Chinese whale selling btc across 11 exchanges.
Ebay fishing in btc space.
Wholesale selling of securities across most security exchanges.
Obama and Kerry make case for backing Crips against the Bloods.
Take your pick. It's a crazy day.
|
|
|
|
Half-off sale on Thursday 9/5/2013 only! Buy AsicMiner passthrough shares on BTC-TC at an incredible 50% off retail! Good only while supplies last. Buy today, they won't last long at these prices!  |
|
|
|
|
"A man who aspires to control his own destiny is constantly inclined to take action. The most difficult action to take for such a man is to decide to take no action at all. It is diametrically opposed to his nature, even when it is clearly the best choice."
|
|
|
|
These products would sell out if you encased them in a pile of dog shit. So for this industry, selling out has no weight.
Honestly, that was one of the funniest things I have read all week. And a good counter-point as well. |
|
|
|
|
I have W7 x64. Just got in 9 sticks delivered today Plugged them into a 10 port Anker Uspeed 3.0. Loaded cgminer 3.1.1, and loaded the UART to COM drivers listed by the OP. Ran into the issue where I had to specify -s for each COM device, but that was it. 9 sticks hashing at just over 3Ghs happily cooled by the Artic Breeze as recommended by the OP.
It could not have been easier, it took less than 20 minutes from part arrival to hashing.
My total out-of-pocket was a little high at $370 but I bought the sticks on ebay. This includes the hub and fan from Amazon. From a $$ standpoint (not a bitcoin standpoint) I should ROI in around 130 days assuming btc price remains stable.
Thank-you mdude77 for a very good and useful guide. Now my graphic cards can get a well deserved rest. They already paid for themselves, as well as my new little 3ghs rig.
|
|
|
|
|
The perceivable reason is dividends with a track record.
|
|
|
|
|
We will be removing the LTC squares shortly as they have gone almost completely unused. They are expected to be replaced with more btc squares.
|
|
|
|
|
I would not characterize it as FC getting his lunch eaten when FC sells out of everything he ever offers. Even with populist suggestions that his products are overpriced. Such remarks lead me to believe that people think FC is losing potential profits on products he has not yet produced, which could be said for pretty much anyone else in the marketplace.
Continuously selling out of everything you produce is a sign of success, not weakness.
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
