Both assertions are accepted as correct. I would suggest that as the market matures and grows it should more closely resemble a rational market. There are certainly many opportunities for short-term profits by exploiting that irrationality today. A year from now, probably not quite so much. As far as AM is concerned, I feel confident enough in the abilities of FC that his company will be capable of overcoming the deflationary pressures of the currency as well as the increasing global hash. For those reasons I continue to accumulate shares, only time will tell if my guess is correct. If AM fails to be a viable investment vehicle in a deflationary currency, I have serious doubts that anyone else will ever be able to be one.

LOL! Al Gore will lead the charge against bitcoins because it contributes to global warming. I can see the headlines already.

Assuming it pays no dividends, then yes, you are correct. You will make the same amount as if you had bought and held btc. It would be a reflection that the value of the equity had increased at the same rate that the value of bitcoins did. (in a rational market)

It was pointed out in a PM that an equity could avoid the fate of being taken out in the yard and shot if consistent increases in price per share accompanied the dividend in such a way that it compensated for the increase in btc value. I stand corrected.

The models for a deflationary currency are really not as established as inflationary, so people tend to not really understand the differences.  When the value of a unit of currency is continually rising, one of the best investments will always be buy the currency and hold. This is because the prices of everything as priced in the defationary currency will continuously drop, as opposed to always rising as in an inflationary currency. You can get more for the same unit of currency next week than you can by spending it this week. Savers get wealthier every day by doing nothing.

In an inflationary currency the opposite is true. The only way that your currency can be out there working for you is if you exchange it for something else. You must hold an asset, such as land, commodities, equities, bonds, anything that will generate an additional cash flow to at least compensate for the lost value of holding the currency. Infaltionary currency was designed to be spent, and deflationary currency is designed to be held.

Equities are not immune to this fundamental feature of a deflationary currency. If a stock costs 1 btc and the value of btc doubles, all things being equal the stock price should move to 0.5 btc. This is a simple concept that everyone should agree upon. The problem once again, is that you went nowhere. Had you held btc your wealth would have doubled. But since you are holding an asset, you gained nothing. This is fundamentally true in a deflationary currency system. You see this problem every day when people purchase asic miners, although it is magnified and masked by difficulty increases.

The deflation is like and endless juggernaut, it never stops, and the base prices of everything priced in it must by definition drop and drop and drop. Market fluctuations and speculation can mask it for a time, but in the end it is relentless as gravity and it will reign supreme in the end.

Equities can certainly counteract this effect, by the inherent creation of value by the underlying company. A company may for example cost 1btc per share, and return 0.01 btc per week. This is enough to account for a 1% per week increase in the value of btc. If you purchase this stock for 1btc, hold it for a week, get your dividend, and the value of btc increases by 1% you are exactly where you would have been if you had just held btc, because the value of the stock should have decreased in a rational market by 1%.

Rumors, announcements, FUD, competition, momentum, perception,these things can also affect price. They can cause big moves and make everything look crazy to an analyst trying to sort it out. But working steadily and continuously in the background the gravity that is deflation will eat the value from any held asset. Even an asset such as ASICminer. In infaltionary currency, any asset that is not increasing in value is dead money. In a deflationary currency, an asset that that is not decreasing in value is a win, and if it rises at all you have really really really done well.

So, in conclusion, any equity that can consistently provide dividends to the shareholder at at rate that exceeds the rate of increase in the currency is better than just buying coins and holding. If it cannot, it needs to be taken out in the yard and shot because you are losing value every day you hold it.

The models for a deflationary currency are really not as established as inflationary, so people tend to not really understand the differences.  When the value of a unit of currency is continually rising, one of the best investments will always be buy the currency and hold. This is because the prices of everything as priced in the defationary currency will continuously drop, as opposed to always rising as in an inflationary currency. You can get more for the same unit of currency next week than you can by spending it this week. Savers get wealthier every day by doing nothing.

In an inflationary currency the opposite is true. The only way that your currency can be out there working for you is if you exchange it for something else. You must hold an asset, such as land, commodities, equities, bonds, anything that will generate an additional cash flow to at least compensate for the lost value of holding the currency. Infaltionary currency was designed to be spent, and deflationary currency is designed to be held.

Equities are not immune to this fundamental feature of a deflationary currency. If a stock costs 1 btc and the value of btc doubles, all things being equal the stock price should move to 0.5 btc. This is a simple concept that everyone should agree upon. The problem once again, is that you went nowhere. Had you held btc your wealth would have doubled. But since you are holding an asset, you gained nothing. This is fundamentally true in a deflationary currency system. You see this problem every day when people purchase asic miners, although it is magnified and masked by difficulty increases.

The deflation is like and endless juggernaut, it never stops, and the base prices of everything priced in it must by definition drop and drop and drop. Market fluctuations and speculation can mask it for a time, but in the end it is relentless as gravity and it will reign supreme in the end.

Equities can certainly counteract this effect, by the inherent creation of value by the underlying company. A company may for example cost 1btc per share, and return 0.01 btc per week. This is enough to account for a 1% per week increase in the value of btc. If you purchase this stock for 1btc, hold it for a week, get your dividend, and the value of btc increases by 1% you are exactly where you would have been if you had just held btc, because the value of the stock should have decreased in a rational market by 1%.

Rumors, announcements, FUD, competition, momentum, perception,these things can also affect price. They can cause big moves and make everything look crazy to an analyst trying to sort it out. But working steadily and continuously in the background the gravity that is deflation will eat the value from any held asset. Even an asset such as ASICminer. In infaltionary currency, any asset that is not increasing in value is dead money. In a deflationary currency, an asset that that is not decreasing in value is a win, and if it rises at all you have really really really done well.

So, in conclusion, any equity that can consistently provide dividends to the shareholder at at rate that exceeds the rate of increase in the currency is better than just buying coins and holding. If it cannot, it needs to be taken out in the yard and shot because you are losing value every day you hold it.

With the price of shares of AM so closely tied to the btc/fiat rate, it is becoming difficult to calculate the correct ROI, and to determine if it is in fact positive.

At $90 per bitcoin, AM shares averaged around 4.5 each. 4.5 * 90 = $405.

At $120 per bitcoin, AM shares averaged around 3.3 each. 3.3 * 120 = $396.

At $130 per bitcoin, AM shares average around 2.9 each. 2.9 * 130 = $377.

Today:

At $140 per bitcoin, AM shares average around 2.5 each. 2.5 * 140 = $350.


This apparent loss of fiat purchasing power as the price of btc increases may be replaced by the dividends. They are only a few dollars at best per week, but  there are multiple dividends per price period so the accumulation of dividends might offset most of it. Of course, there are other factors such as other IPO, breaking news, FUD, etc. But a clear pattern is establishing itself. Could it be possible that, just like buying an asic (in most cases anymore), you are better off just sitting on your BTC than you are in investing? Help me out here and show me what I am missing.

I fail to see hate or baiting in the message you quoted. That message certainly is a good contribution and is mostly just neutral in tone. I do not feel disdain for the haters, just pity. Their opinions are not the issue. Their actions are.
 

One sad component of haters and baiters is the self-righteousness. They see themselves as some sort of holy warriors protecting the great unwashed from evil-doers. As if they are doing any service for anyone but themselves. The real joke is that filling page after page and thread after thread with regurgitated, gibbering bile makes them look like raving lunatics. They are not saving anyone. They are not helping anyone. The only opinion anyone has about their posts is that it is useless, innane clutter and that these forums would be better without it. The imagined power that comes with claiming that "90% of people agree with what I am posting" must surely be intoxicating, but in reality, no one cares. It isn't real.

There is no one who needs their brand of "saving", there are no crusades to win other than imagined ones, and their hate makes them a loser by default.

There are certainly plenty of issues with both asics related to manufacturing and delivery. But nothing they say or do is going to affect it one way or the other, nor will it likely affect anyone else's choices. They are powerless, and at some level they know this, and that only fuels their hate. Being irrelevant really pisses some people off, and makes them even louder.

I wish I could reach out to each and every one of them and cure them. Unfortunately, I think only the passage of time can do that. Eventually every vendor will either deliver or go belly up. Then what will they have left?

I don't know how many USB asics they are selling but ebay is jammed with them. Picked up 10 more for myself. Hardware sales by pure volume must be huge.

I am pretty sure that everyone everywhere realizes that ROI is a unicorn and has been a unicorn for months. No asic anywhere from anyone including unicorns that are only promised to be born will ever make a positive ROI in nominal btc terms. Those days are long gone.

I am not sure why every five minutes someone feels the need to be noticed for pointing out that device "X" will never achieve positive ROI. Duh, and the sky is blue. It is certainly not an argument that matters for the tens of thousands buying asics all over the world. Unless you assume that anyone who buys an asic is an idiot, in which case, congratulations on being so much smarter than everyone else. I hope being that smart translates into btc for you.

We all agree that asics can achieve a positive ROI in fiat terms assuming that the value of btc increases over time, and that in most cases you are better off just buying and holding btc. Most miners however are quite happy with the fiat ROI and are not as concerned with the btc ROI. They have chosen not to buy and hold. I respect that decision.

Fiat ROI is not only possible, it is likely. These people are not idiots, they just choose a different path for their own reasons.

Actually, I think what PT members desire actually does have a "PT" effect. For example, if PT owners are dissatisfied they will divest themselves of PT shares, dropping the price and lowering the book value of those running the PT shares. By proxy those running the PT offerings will become dissatisfied. People vote with their dollars, or in this case, with their btc.

On a side note, I prefer the so-called lack of transparency because I see a well-run and well-positioned company that has no serious competitors on the horizon. (others may disagree, and that's fine). I tend to believe that this causes the share prices to jump around everywhere on whimsy and rumor making it occasionally easy for me to pick up more shares at a discount to my personal target values. I suppose time will tell if my investments were shrewd.

I don't pay for promises. I pay for results and delivery.

Others promise. And promise. And promise.

Friedcat delivers.

Although I am an owner of direct shares and an advocate for direct shares, I also often reinvest dividends into passthrough shares on btc-tc and occasionally TAT shares.

While this does initiate a second and third layer of risk, the value obtained for me does outweigh that risk in no small part due to the track record of the parties involved. If that risk for you outweighs the benefits, then that's fine and quite understandable. Everything about bitcoin is experimental and could vaporize tomorrow leaving many people standing around with an empty cookie jar. These disclaimers are warnings for events that are unforeseen and outside of the control of the operators. They do not wish to be held accountable for such events, nor do I personally think they should be. They are providing a service, you are free to use it or not. As with any other bitcoin-related service, do not invest what you cannot afford to lose. Thats pretty much sound advise to follow, and I don't see it as a negative when someone openly points it out.

And to make things even worse, if they wanted to be real pricks, they could just delay your case for a year, and then show up with your asic and hand it to you completely worthless with a global hash of a trillion by then. Case dismissed.

You could just as easily oversleep, get a flat tire, or be in the hospital the day of court. You might not show up either.

Those not daily involved in the court system make several novice assumptions. The first is that they will win. Everyone thinks they will win, but the news is that exactly 1/2 of those in court lose. Your odds start out at 50% just walking in the door. I have seen thousands of people stand dumbfounded when the gavel comes down against them. But even if somehow you win and get a judgement, you still have to collect. This can take years if you have gotten someone angry enough to hire an attorney and jack you around for the next decade.

I have taken people to small claims court on dozens of occasions. I have prevailed in every case. I have gotten paid in two of them. If you are not an attorney you should not pretend you are one. There is no substitute for direct experience.

I wish you luck. It could be a year before your case is even heard if they decide to delay you with discovery and a hundred other tactics. At the very least it will be educational, and possibly fun if you enjoy that sort of thing.

Please tell us we are not going to be deseparated. That sounds... painful.

I said "Please send me 25 more shares."

+1