So even the BFX hack did not bring us below -1.5. Hope we will not see any level below it again (in this cycle)
We are at about -1.35 now, and broke the resistance level at -1.4. The next target is -1.3 (the pre BFX hack level), now at $732; and the previous peak at -1.1, now at $894. There is no obvious resistance level beyond -1.1
The ATH $1126 is currently -0.87
Thanks for the update. Could you post a zoomed-out view of the exponential line? I want to see where the current line places the price in 2020 or 2025. |
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I believe that the value you are suggesting for Bitcoins is currently "out of reach" and will only be possible in a P&D scene
$4,000/BTC means a market cap of <70 billion USD. It's peanuts. It's basically a failure scenario. It means bitcoin was unable to surpass Australia and unable to become a medium of international exchange despite the extremely low quality of the competition (banks/paypal/western union/etc.) and unable to become a store of value despite having superior qualities to gold and other stores of value. I'm not sure what kind of future you think bitcoin has, but in my model, I am giving bitcoin a 5-10% chance of becoming a Top 10 currency with a base money supply worth trillions of USD and more than 200 million users taken mostly from the wealthiest 10% of the world's population. This is going to mean that one bitcoin will be worth $X00,000 each. And you can guess what the strongest altcoins like XMR will be worth in that scenario. |
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If bitcoin breaks the ATH, the slingshot will happen. The slingshot, for those who haven't been following my posts, is where bitcoin goes up, leaving altcoins behind. But then altcoins rip upwards as everything in crypto becomes hot.
This is where you fight your instincts and keep your XMR despite XMR going down against BTC. There is a good chance that we see XMR reach a billion+ dollar market cap in 2017.
Bitcoin rips upwards to $4,000 - $8,000. XMR hits .025 or .05
Yes, that means $100-$400 XMR. But very few people will be mentally *able* to hold.
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Is there any reason for Bitcoin going up?
bitcoin's not really up unless you consider 1% a significant move |
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$560,000 to 1 MM+ will be the mature value of a bitcoin once it's *the* currency of the internet. *The* destination for offshore wealth storage. *The* currency of outsourcing. Held by all central banks in their reserves alongside the USD, YEN, GBP, and gold. But this will take perhaps 20 years. The idea that this will happen within a few years is pretty nutty IMO. The infrastructure takes time to be built. Hell, it may take another year or two for the Winklevoss ETF to go live.
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But we early-adopters here, all of us, are well-positioned to be able to take advantage of whatever's coming...  this is an underrated point. i've heard people say something like: "even if we think cryptocurrency has a future, we don't know if bitcoin will be the ultimate winner. it could be some other cryptocurrency. therefore, the risk of bitcoin as an investment is very high. it can fail even if cryptocurrency succeeds." but this argument fails to note that if you are involved in cryptocurrency, then you are in a very good position to adapt to the changing landscape whether bitcoin retains its marketshare or not. for example, if you own 1 bitcoin, and you see that monero fixes a very serious bitcoin flaw, then how much does it cost to hedge against the possibility that bitcoin loses to monero? the answer is <$6.50 all you have to do is buy an equivalent stake in monero. which is currently less than 1 XMR. if you watch the top 10 list of cryptocurrencies carefully and spend time learning about each new entry, then you will never be taken by surprise. you will know which ones are a real threat to bitcoin, and which ones are pump and dumps that can be ignored. because the list of coins that are an actual threat to bitcoin is so short, the cost of hedging is not too expensive. |
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xmr is progressing even faster than i expected. my original theory was that xmr would not do much until the next crypto-wide hype cycle. in that cycle, i guessed that it would outperform bitcoin. a slingshot effect.
but while that crypto-wide hype cycle has not yet come, xmr is ~10x higher than when i was theorizing. and i still think that xmr will outperform bitcoin during the next cycle.
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30x -> 10x -> 2x
so the next one will be what? 0.2x?
that would imply that the parabolic rises are done.
did bitcoin conquer volatility in 7 years? gold and silver are still experiencing parabolic rises after thousands of years.
this isn't over.
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Don't forget we must retrace and consolidate a bit to continue our bull run, in order to have a healthy rally.
I know that, but how to tell if consolidation is done? What condition should be met exactly before bitcoin price start go higher? I keep hearing about this 'consolidation' thing a lot but can someone actually explain it to me? During consolidation, the bollinger bands will squeeze very tight. Low volatility. |
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We'd look at 900+ then right
I don't think that $900-999 is going to be a region that we spend much time in |
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XMR would tend to become associated with high-reputation vendors
Does this contain the implicit assumption that sellers who ask for XMR will tend to be more virtuous, more professional sellers? the low-reputation vendors require multi-sig, which precludes XMR, then all XMR vendors will be high-reputation vendors. Its an implication rather than an assumption. I see now. That's right. |
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XMR would tend to become associated with high-reputation vendors
Does this contain the implicit assumption that sellers who ask for XMR will tend to be more virtuous, more professional sellers? |
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My understanding from what I have read from the oasis team is that almost no one uses multisig. Not only that but people are going further and releasing funds before receiving their product.
You're right. FE is common practice. Sellers hate multi-sig because of a) bitcoin volatility and b) because they want the bitcoin in hand. And buyers will do whatever the biggest trusted sellers want and buyers accept that every so often, sellers will exit scam. Seems like it's a seller's market. If sellers start demanding XMR, then the buyers will acquire it. If not, then not. |
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Anyone going to try to call the top?
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Makes a lot more sense to ask for monero than bitcoin for your ransom payment.
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I believe a super-cycle is way overdue, but because of many problems right now it is being held back for example the bitfinex problem and the blocksize debate that has been gone on for way too long and is still not even anywhere close to solved. If that were true, then some altcoin with better scalability would've rocketed past bitcoin. Yet here we are, with the total cryptocurrency market cap below bitcoin's all-time high. The simplest explanation is that the demand just isn't there. |
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It seems we have all of the early bitcoin shenanigans with not nearly as much of the upside. Beginning to feel very pessimistic.
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This coin is a solid investment with out the doomsday scenario
What if it's not? What I'm suggesting is that cryptocurrencies may be insect-eating tree rats scurrying in the dense brush. Not prospering. Not expanding. Just surviving. Surviving during the reign of the dinosaurs. Surviving for many millions of years in the shadow of reptiles until an opportunity presents itself. If that opportunity presents itself, the tree rats and their descendants can take over the whole game. If not, then they occupy their little niche in the shadows forever. What you're suggesting seems to be that the tree rats can have a solid future in their niche. But I'm not seeing it. Not when the dinosaurs are occupying all the skies and land and seas. |
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Define calamity. Capital controls, confiscatory taxation, bail-ins are all good for XMR. These are foreseeable, known unknowns. I don't anticipate that they will be dominant factors in valuation until after the known catalysts have made their primary impact.
Regarding knowns: Look to AML/KYC and contraband use-cases. Some consider that history has proven the war on plants to be a calamity, which we are already experiencing in the fullest. I think that will be good for 25x-50x gains in XMR if/when software usability and risk-aversion demand align.
Then there are unknown unknowns, unforseen use-cases in which privacy makes the difference between a dark world of calamity, and bright open spaces. If I were to name them, they would no longer be in this category. Very hard to discount, therefore.
It's not literally "exponential" until the factors are seen to have compounded.
We've been over the use cases a million times. All of those use cases you listed are good and XMR is good in theory right now but something needs to actually drive the reaction. The temperature needs to be changed. An enzyme needs to be added. Something is eluding us. It may be that we are waiting for an extinction event. That is what I mean by calamity. Perhaps the complete or near destruction of global financial system. In that case, people will be running for their lives. XMR could function as a lifeboat alongside precious metals, etc. It may be that we need a clear-cut case of bitcoin blockchain analysis bringing down a large group of illicit traffickers in order for all of those markets to switch over to XMR. I'm still reading stories about people strapping cash to their bodies and trying to physically cross borders. This stuff is not necessary anymore. I'm trying to understand what it is that we're waiting for. I don't think it's any sort of GUI or decrease in the block reward or anything like that. Maybe XMR actually has to be the last man standing. The only good option left. And not just from a theoretical standpoint. Maybe things have to actually be on fire. |
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