Analysis

[oda.krell]

Yeah, joining the choir of "luc(if) rules" voices. Been on the edge myself since the double top formed (weird, just notice that's only 2 days ago... feels longer), mainly believing we'll see consolidation rather than a sharp drop. But the combination of my own indicators, bad news, bad forum sentiment and finally, lucif's call made me substantially rearrange my position yesterday, just in time for the big drop.

I still have to say, I'm strongly sceptical about parts of lucif's methodology: EW theory seems a bit too shady for my taste (though I tried wrapping my head around it in the last weeks), and his basic premise that "news follows TA, not the other way around" is something I strongly question.

But all that said, there's no reason to argue with results: no matter how he arrives at them, he has an uncanny ability to call tops (and to a degree, bottoms). I'm glad he's posting here.

P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.

[Sorry for the OT post in this great thread. Will be the only one.]

Quite embarrassing to read my own posts from back then. In another post around that time, I assigned a "40% chance" to luc's prediction (of the coming year+ bear market), but actually, I didn't really take into account the possibility of it happening until much later.

Lesson learned (I hope).

[1715157803]

1715157803

[1715157803]

1715157803

[1715157803]

1715157803

[1715157803]

1715157803

[1715157803]

1715157803

[Sundark]

Don't forget we must retrace and consolidate a bit to continue our bull run, in order to have a healthy rally.

I know that, but how to tell if consolidation is done? What condition should be met exactly before bitcoin price start go higher?

I keep hearing about this 'consolidation' thing a lot but can someone actually explain it to me?

[jehst]

Don't forget we must retrace and consolidate a bit to continue our bull run, in order to have a healthy rally.

I know that, but how to tell if consolidation is done? What condition should be met exactly before bitcoin price start go higher?

I keep hearing about this 'consolidation' thing a lot but can someone actually explain it to me?

During consolidation, the bollinger bands will squeeze very tight. Low volatility.

[thefiniteidea]

Its pretty amazing how his EW predictions come to fruition, but why?  Why would this pattern apply in a seemingly random fairly large group of traders who dictate the price by their sentiment and actions??

The EW structures also meet the common definition of a fractal. Fractals are natural, mathematical patterns of evolving symmetry found in nature...

In my opinion (which I would love to write a thesis on one day), human behavior seems to derive from a fractal thought process, and thus price movements are also fractal. If you look at the human brain and how it functions, much of it is symmetrical, self-similar, and recursive (see 'The Fractal Brian Theory' by Wai Tsang); I think this is why we see fractal patterns manifest in price discovery.

Based off personal experience, there are lots of securities that display these properties (especially intraday), but some are more apparent than others. Bitcoin has one of the most apparent fractal structures, IMO. Maybe because it has the least amount of artificial market-moving influences (like central bank or government policy).

[jerowacik]

I predict that the next few days the price of bitcoin will increase. with the more stable the price of bitcoin few days it will make investors more confidence to use bitcoin.

[N12]

Quite embarrassing to read my own posts from back then. In another post around that time, I assigned a "40% chance" to luc's prediction (of the coming year+ bear market), but actually, I didn't really take into account the possibility of it happening until much later.

Lesson learned (I hope).

I remember the times at the end of 2013 when I was drawing comparisons to 2011.

P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.

Following the 32 top, it took 1 1/2 years to make a new alltime high.

Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.

The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?

I learned.

Still learning.

Holding for nearly a year now, something which I never would have done in the past, but at last, I've become confident enough of this on a long time frame ever since it's bolstered by the weekly 200 SMA and failed to penetrate the 150 low in August last year. One big reason for me to take the most long term approach I possibly can is to avoid the disaster that potentially awaits when you hold a balance on the current amateur exchanges.

Since I expect Bitcoin to not only hit alltime highs, but surpass its former high by far, I won't even consider doing anything until then, unless the technicals get completely obliterated. Depending on the trajectory the price takes to this area, I may even decide not to trade it. It's entirely possible for Bitcoin to have a multi-year "steady" (well, by Bitcoin's standards) bull market.

[zimmah]

Yeah, joining the choir of "luc(if) rules" voices. Been on the edge myself since the double top formed (weird, just notice that's only 2 days ago... feels longer), mainly believing we'll see consolidation rather than a sharp drop. But the combination of my own indicators, bad news, bad forum sentiment and finally, lucif's call made me substantially rearrange my position yesterday, just in time for the big drop.

I still have to say, I'm strongly sceptical about parts of lucif's methodology: EW theory seems a bit too shady for my taste (though I tried wrapping my head around it in the last weeks), and his basic premise that "news follows TA, not the other way around" is something I strongly question.

But all that said, there's no reason to argue with results: no matter how he arrives at them, he has an uncanny ability to call tops (and to a degree, bottoms). I'm glad he's posting here.

P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.

[Sorry for the OT post in this great thread. Will be the only one.]

Quite embarrassing to read my own posts from back then. In another post around that time, I assigned a "40% chance" to luc's prediction (of the coming year+ bear market), but actually, I didn't really take into account the possibility of it happening until much later.

Lesson learned (I hope).

almost no one expected a bear market this long, except a guy who proved to be a genius when it comes to predicting bitcoin.


let's hope his other prediction (a new bull market on 2016/2017) also proves accurate.   

So far, 2016 is pretty good, but there aren't any clear signs of a real rally still.

And than there's the blocksize issue. (I can't believe Core is still the most popular version, even though 1MB blocksize is really not enough anymore).

[thefiniteidea]

So far, 2016 is pretty good, but there aren't any clear signs of a real rally still.

Price hasn't broken the ATH, but I wouldn't say that we're still in a bear market. IMO, we have been back in an up-trending bull market since after the first half of 2015...

[sandiman]

So far, 2016 is pretty good, but there aren't any clear signs of a real rally still.

Price hasn't broken the ATH, but I wouldn't say that we're still in a bear market. IMO, we have been back in an up-trending bull market since after the first half of 2015...

Potential B waves. But you are still not wrong, if potential B waves there is, that could be seen as a short term bull market in a bigger bear market.

PS: cheers for the masterluc historical post, sums up everything pretty well on EW.

[masterluc]

Observation.

Price was mostly below weekly sma20 during downtrend - in negative BB zone.

Since uptrend price was always above weekly sma20.

Now on Edge. Close below will make me worry.

[windjc]

Observation.

Price was mostly below weekly sma20 during downtrend - in negative BB zone.

Since uptrend price was always above weekly sma20.

Now on Edge. Close below will make me worry.

You had predicted a triangle into 2017. Would it not make sense for the weekly SMA20 to break at some point during such a triangle?

[Livermore]

https://www.tradingview.com/x/9nx1RqIj/

Seems like 2012, but the two patterns in reverse order.

 So while we are all predicting Ping Pong or crash or moon, perhaps the market will just flat for 3 months, then slowly rise. Rise into wave 3, rise into all time high, rise into fomo, rise into greed, rise into bubble.

[marcus_of_augustus]

^^ huh

Not sure what you're drawing there but the circles both encompass halving dates so it has that going for it .... and the sequence of drivers for next run sounds feasible but the length of sideways before that is anyone's guess ... until noone can bear it any longer usually but awesome time to accumulate.

[Livermore]

^^ huh

Not sure what you're drawing there but the circles both encompass halving dates so it has that going for it .... and the sequence of drivers for next run sounds feasible but the length of sideways before that is anyone's guess ... until noone can bear it any longer usually but awesome time to accumulate.

Yes. No matter how long these consolidations take they always end up breaking upwards.  I am drawing yellow = yellow pattern, blue = blue pattern. Same patterns, played in reverse. Seems likely, since masterluc says we are almost in historical III up, and those patterns played in 2012 preceeded major wave III up in 2013.

Most important is to remember, 2014Jan-2015Apr was the bear market. We are in a bull market now, it is key to stay bull in a bull market.

[sandiman]

^^ huh

Not sure what you're drawing there but the circles both encompass halving dates so it has that going for it .... and the sequence of drivers for next run sounds feasible but the length of sideways before that is anyone's guess ... until noone can bear it any longer usually but awesome time to accumulate.

Yes. No matter how long these consolidations take they always end up breaking upwards.  I am drawing yellow = yellow pattern, blue = blue pattern. Same patterns, played in reverse. Seems likely, since masterluc says we are almost in historical III up, and those patterns played in 2012 preceeded major wave III up in 2013.

Most important is to remember, 2014Jan-2015Apr was the bear market. We are in a bull market now, it is key to stay bull in a bull market.

then it's time to break downward, as if the market was that simple ... 

[masterluc]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/MrwPhbog-Long-Term-Bitcoin-price-extrapolation/

[vphen]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/MrwPhbog-Long-Term-Bitcoin-price-extrapolation/

interesting, I mean your new signature.

[podyx]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/MrwPhbog-Long-Term-Bitcoin-price-extrapolation/

High 8000's and low 9000's have been my prediction for the next bubble too.

[Shiroslullaby]

I could only wish for Bitcoin to be worth $8000 each.
That would make my small invest actually worth something LOL.

Do people really think such a rise is possible?
Its obviously much easier to have something go up in value 100x when the price is very small.

[Afrikoin]

I could only wish for Bitcoin to be worth $8000 each.
That would make my small invest actually worth something LOL.

Do people really think such a rise is possible?
Its obviously much easier to have something go up in value 100x when the price is very small.

one day it will be worth $10 k.

Question is, can you hold until it does?