 Show Posts
|
|
Pages: [1]
|
If you're gonna be a pansy fuck and create a new account just to correct somebody's math, at least be correct about your corrections.
I'm sorry, I'm a little drunk :-) edit: Date Registered: December 02, 2017, 02:32:02 PM edit2: I'm here from 2012 but my account was stolen |
|
|
|
Sure, you can plan out in more narrow expectations, that is your choice.
I am not sure about whether I had considered all scenarios in 2017, but in 2016/2017 I had been conjecturing that we were going to top out in the $3k to $5k range scenario.. and perhaps shoot beyond (just hoping for the best) but of course, you know that we ended up going to $20k. but at the same time, I had revised my sell on the way up plan in order that I was selling way more on the way up because I had decided that I did not want to sell a lot of BTC.. even though the BTC price shot up quite a bit beyond my expectations.
So even my memory is failing me, and maybe I have to look back at some of my posts from that time, because by the time that the $20k top came, I did not consider that the top was yet in.. so who knows the extent that any of that matters, if at all?
Of course, this time around we could consider varying ranges and more bullish and less bullish scenarios.
The various tops would have varying likelihoods of playing out such as my SOMA calculations:
[00.50]above $1.5 million - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios - about .5% odds
[03.00]$800k to $1.5 million - most bullish of scenarios - about 2.5% odds
[07.25]$600k to $800k - 2nd most bullish of scenarios - about 4.25% odds
[15.00]$300k to $600k - Moderately highly bullish - about 7.25% odds
[27.50]$100k to $300k - normal range bullish - about 12.5% odds
[40.50]$65k to $100k - hardly bullish - but at least a new ATH as our top - about 13% odds
[55.00]$55k to $65k - deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top - about 14.5% odds
[73.00]$current price to $55k - relatively bearish - about 18% odds
-UP-----------
=== 73+28=101%
-DOWN-------
[28.00]down from here - most bearish - but possible - about 28% odds
I am not sure if I should have all of those odds add up to 100%, but just for comprehensiveness sake, I tallied them up in such a way.
73% UP 28% DOWN That (above) is just an opinion, which are 'a dime a dozen' worth. This is not a calculation of any sort, but simply a guess. Still, better than before. Just fixing JJG My guess is [30.00] for range $101k to $240k [80.00] for range $65k to $100k -------------- |
|
|
|
Sure, you can plan out in more narrow expectations, that is your choice.
I am not sure about whether I had considered all scenarios in 2017, but in 2016/2017 I had been conjecturing that we were going to top out in the $3k to $5k range scenario.. and perhaps shoot beyond (just hoping for the best) but of course, you know that we ended up going to $20k. but at the same time, I had revised my sell on the way up plan in order that I was selling way more on the way up because I had decided that I did not want to sell a lot of BTC.. even though the BTC price shot up quite a bit beyond my expectations.
So even my memory is failing me, and maybe I have to look back at some of my posts from that time, because by the time that the $20k top came, I did not consider that the top was yet in.. so who knows the extent that any of that matters, if at all?
Of course, this time around we could consider varying ranges and more bullish and less bullish scenarios.
The various tops would have varying likelihoods of playing out such as my SOMA calculations:
[00.50]above $1.5 million - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios - about .5% odds
[03.00]$800k to $1.5 million - most bullish of scenarios - about 2.5% odds
[07.25]$600k to $800k - 2nd most bullish of scenarios - about 4.25% odds
[15.00]$300k to $600k - Moderately highly bullish - about 7.25% odds
[27.50]$100k to $300k - normal range bullish - about 12.5% odds
[40.50]$65k to $100k - hardly bullish - but at least a new ATH as our top - about 13% odds
[55.00]$55k to $65k - deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top - about 14.5% odds
[73.00]$current price to $55k - relatively bearish - about 18% odds
-UP-----------
=== 73+28=101%
-DOWN-------
[28.00]down from here - most bearish - but possible - about 28% odds
I am not sure if I should have all of those odds add up to 100%, but just for comprehensiveness sake, I tallied them up in such a way.
73% UP 28% DOWN |
|
|
|
^ LOL, in 2019, I'm talking about the highest price of the year, so far and I hope to see it higher in December.  When we refer to ATH or other price dynamics, we refer to Bitstamp, here, unless we are trying to point out something specific about some other exchange. So, in that regard, our ATH for 2019 has so far only gotten to $5,846. We cannot be referring to other exchanges with other ATH BTC prices, merely because it makes us feel better because there is a higher number or a lower number or anything like that. We gotta stick to our guns during good times or bad times or whatever, and use Bitstamp as our reference price, unless there is some kind of convincing longer term development that shows us that Bitstamp is either no longer reliable as an price indicator, or some better price indicator proves itself to be better (likely with passage of time, rather than short term claims of serving as a more reliable indicator). ATH - ALL TIME HIGH is currently $19,666 on Bitstamp |
|
|
|
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrGx0lhdNBY&t=11509sI posted the stream earlier but surprisingly nobody here was interested in it. Anyway this what this bald guy thinks going to happen:  Looks fucking scary. If they asked me to paint the most horrific bear run, I would exactly paint it like this. It is long, it is not directly going down, it is a fucking torture. You think going from 6k to 3k was bad? Pray it doesn't go below. I guess I am scared. Gonna wait a few months before I buy anything new. No more FOMO. Hi, please, say to Tone Vays "Bottom is already IN !!!" :-) |
|
|
|
Magical Crypto Conference 2019 , May 11th , try not to miss it!!!  Magical Shitcoin Conference? |
|
|
|
2900$ is the last support that could very likely not hold, and should it not then we can easily go to 3 digits again.  $2,9xx will be the bottom |
|
|
|
1 BTC = 13 kg of silver ? (next year it will be 40 kg) |
|
|
|
https://blockstream.com/2018/10/10/liquid-launch.htmlWe are excited to announce that the Liquid Network is now live. As the world’s first production Bitcoin sidechain, the Liquid Network provides fast, secure, and confidential transactions to address the needs of exchanges, brokers, market makers, and financial institutions around the world.
The Liquid blockchain went live with the first block generated on September 27, 2018 at 1:29 UTC. 23 of the cryptocurrency industry’s biggest players participated in the launch as Liquid members, including Altonomy, Atlantic Financial, Bitbank, Bitfinex, Bitmax, BitMEX, Bitso, BTCBOX, BTSE, Buull Exchange, DGroup, Coinone, Crypto Garage, GOPAX (operated by Streami), Korbit, L2B Global, OKCoin, The Rock Trading, SIX Digital Exchange, Unocoin, Xapo, XBTO, and Zaif. Together, these members comprise the Liquid Network, ensuring users’ assets are protected through a geographically diverse network with no single point of failure. It is game changer. New bull run is starting. |
|
|
|
Yes there's 99% chance that bitcoin reaches atleast $10,000
But no one knows when...
There is 99,99% chance that bitcoin reaches at least $50,000 and stays above $20,000 ... in less than 3 years |
|
|
|
So, I'm no TA expert or anything but...the fact that the new low was higher than the last low would indicate to me that the floor is rising over time.
I could post fancy charts to explain it but I think this will give you an idea of what I'm talking about:
___/
I'm not sure this is the end. |
|
|
|
|
$1,230 or this time it will be different :-) (who knows, we are now Krapeless(without MtGox) -> no more dips 32-2, 256-50, 1260-150)
|
|
|
|
It is that fear that keeps me from shifting more of my BTC holdings to BCH.
Presently I hold 3 BCH per BTC. It is foolish to put all of your eggs in one basket. If you think the vision of "digital gold" will win then maybe you should hold 2 BTC per BCH. Don't let your ideology prevent you from making wise investment decisions. Selling all your BTC or all your BCH is not smart. > Presently I hold 3 BCH per BTC. It is foolish to put all of your eggs in one basket. So you sold BTC and bought BCH and now you are talking your book propaganda. (otherwise you are 1:1) |
|
|
|
Roger Ver's CV is a lot better  Indeed. Roger Ver has done a huge amount to further Bitcoin adoption. Perhaps more than anyone else besides Satoshi Nakamoto. He truly loves Bitcoin and wants to see all of the world adopt it. That people now abuse him for trying to fix the problem of high fees and unreliable confirmations is heart-breaking for me. You don't actually believe this bullshit, do you? +1 dont quote trols |
|
|
|
|
