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1  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold bubble and Economic situation more what to expect on: Today at 04:41:56 PM
Your best safe heaven is knowledge and information.

Indeed it is knowledge and information

But this is just another level of generalization and abstraction. In this case, the knowledge and information about when the gold bubble is going to pop or whether there is a gold bubble in the first place at all will help help you make an informed and balanced decision, for example, to sell your gold if it is indeed a bubble or, on the contrary, to buy more of it if it is not. The point is, telling that knowledge and information are the key to safe heaven is essentially telling nothing as it always comes down to obtaining correct information and possessing deep knowledge about something
2  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How to get lucky ;) on: Today at 04:23:56 PM
Can these steps make you lucky?!!To win the lottery you must get lucky first of all.
Do you have a way to make you lucky most of the time?

I'd say, no way!

You can only make yourself happy but not lucky. However, you can also make someone else happy and then say that he or she is lucky to have you by their side. The point is, while you can't influence your own luck (at least, not directly), you can still do something to that effect with respect to someone else, and they can return the favor to you, with the implication being that luck can be bestowed upon you if you work toward bestowing it upon someone else. Pretty simple, isn't it?
3  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do you have an idea in percentage how big gambling industry's contribution? on: Today at 02:55:57 PM
As what the thread title says, I like to know based on your opinion how big the contribution of the gambling industry to the entire market.
I have been a gambler for awhile now and I believe that with the contribution of our industry, it will only make the market stronger in the long run, and it's one of the reason why adoption is happening at a very good rate IMO

It is hard to tell, but the impact must be significant

With that said, we have at least one example where the contribution of the gambling industry is overwhelming. I think it can be reasonably claimed that most of Dogecoin's market value (read, price) comes due to its being a coin of choice for online gambling. In other words, if there was no online crypto gambling or Dogecoin wasn't that popular in this industry, it would likely have already kicked the bucket and joined the plethora of now-defunct shitcoins. EOS and Tron seem to be the second best candidates whose price and popularity come about mostly through gambling
4  Economy / Services / Re: ➤ Top-notch translation services: English ⬄ Russian on: February 27, 2020, 08:43:47 PM
Available now!

If someone needs a few things translated (like a couple of sentences or anything to that tune), post them here, and I will readily help you out with that
5  Local / Альтернативные криптовалюты / Re: Дни которые возвращают веру в Альткоины. on: February 27, 2020, 07:22:38 PM
Для падения хватает одной новости и падение в основном длится долго, нежели рост, но и для хорошего роста, бывает, хватает одной новости

Новость, как правило, только лишь триггер

Или спусковой крючок, если по-русски. Рынок может какое-то время находится в квазистабильном состоянии (ни жив ни мертв), хотя фактически он уже или перепродан или перекуплен. А в этом случае важно даже не столько содержание новости, сколько ее эмоциональное восприятие рынком, причем рынок может пойти в сторону, отличную от той, которая усматривается из этой новости. Новость может быть и положительная, но по факту лишь обвалит рынок
6  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Stop Loss, A life saver or a evil? on: February 27, 2020, 05:00:26 PM
However, reality is if you use stop loss constantly and keep constantly get that 1% stop loss, eventually it will amount to higher than 50% total and you will eventually lose all your money anyway, which would be not a good way to lower the risk

That would be a thoughtless and rather reckless use of this tool

As you say, using stop losses in a kinda knee-jerk reaction (like automatically setting 1% stop loss) will only lead to compounding of the total loss until there is nothing left to lose. To cut losses short makes only sense when the price action is not what you expected it to be. Then you shouldn't think twice indeed

However, if you expect the price to fall further, you can even add to your position instead of closing it (say, employ some dollar-cost averaging strategy). In other words, your stop losses must be consistent with your long-term trading strategy (let's call it your trading paradigm), and thus planned well ahead
7  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What's in the game, after all? on: February 27, 2020, 12:53:12 PM
~
It proves that with higher multipliers you are more susceptible to bouts of bad luck.

Idk, to me bad luck is when you bet with 95% win chance and lose. When I bet with 0.01% win chance(which I frequently do), I don't consider it bad luck when I lose, tbh. That's why I almost never bet with 50%+ win chance, I don't want to give that bad luck a chance

Opinions obviously vary

As I got it, you consider the whole process statically, i.e. you weigh your chances for the next roll only. In other words, if you expect to lose but win (like with a very low multiplier), it is good luck to you. Conversely, if you expect to win but lose (with a very high multiplier), it is bad luck.~

Actually, it's the other way around. Smiley And although I feel like you knew what I meant, and you just accidentally miswrote it, I want to clarify it for others, who might read this thread

My fault, thanks for the correction (edited my post)

I should have written "high multiplier" instead of "low multiplier", and vice versa. Indeed, your chances for a win are lower the higher the multiplier, therefore you are expecting to lose most of your bets, and when you win it feels like good luck to you. When you bet on a lower multiplier, your chances to win are higher, therefore you hope to win most of your bets. But when you fail, you start to blame luck and call it bad luck
8  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What are your recommended ways of gambling. on: February 27, 2020, 10:34:31 AM
there is no true way for winning in gambling

This is farther from truth than many are inclined to think

In fact, it is possible to win constantly, and more importantly, you needn't be extremely lucky for that (read, no house edge gets hurt in the process). But your profits will be tiny and probably not worth it. Apart from that, you will still be susceptible to variance, which can wipe out your balance one day

However, on average most people would still be winning overall in the long run, and this might herald the end of online casinos as profits of gamblers, no matter how small, are the casino's losses. And these losses would eventually add up and ruin it (provided bets remain fair)
9  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: About Compulsive gambling. on: February 27, 2020, 09:50:07 AM
I'm no buddhist either (just curious) but I don't think they can get rid of all possible addictions. If anything, their addiction would be to feel like they have no addiction since you can't transcend without being addicted to transcendence, right? Really, why would you if you didn't? Regardless, such a person would be of great interest to a psychiatrist

There are people who are not addicted to anything, but indeed they are asocial, as you said, and, in some cases,  suicidal even. They don't have a passion to do something, and life becomes meaningless for them, and that's hardly a good thing

They can always try gambling, a cure for all types of boredom and apathy

Then, can we conclude that addicted gamblers are in better position than those indifferent people, because, when cured, former addicts can apply saved energy and passion to doing something healthy and productive?

Well, that depends on a lot of details

Which can be quite complicated and convoluted. More specifically, we don't know who these addicted gamblers were before they embarked on their gambling journey. Maybe they were exactly those indifferent people who had got bored to death and took to gambling as a last-ditch recourse and a shortcut to get some thrill out of their dull lives

But in general I agree with you. Becoming addicted for these "indifferent" people is a telltale sign that their boredom and indifference is in fact quite self-inflicted for doing something wrong in and with their lives, or rather for not doing the right thing, healthy and productive, which would be there instead of gambling and provide as much thrill and excitement
10  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What's in the game, after all? on: February 27, 2020, 09:30:18 AM
50/50 isnt bad luck, its fair game as it can go either way

It is never 50/50 (or 49.5/50.5 given the typical house edge)

And it is never so (unless you make a few million rolls) specifically because of the randomness of the game. I mean games of chance like dice. You can make a few thousand rolls and still see the effect of luck. But luck is never fair unless you consider fair when luck is on your side. But then you will have to cope with bad luck, which should feel double unfair to you as no luck at all would be simply unfair from your perspective
11  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Minimizing the risk- How much possible it is? on: February 26, 2020, 11:04:59 PM
There are a lot of factors that should be considering in order to lessen the risks in trading. First we must identify first what type of trader are we, are we passive trader or are we a active trader? By identifying that, we can knownwhat type of strategy that is applicable to use. Strategies of long term and short tern trader are not the same so it is better if we will know what type of trader are we

It mostly works the other way around

We can identify our stance (long or short term) based on actual strategies and approaches we use. This is what counts in the end, while the specific type of trader that we drift to is of no particular importance. We can be actively trading one coin in the short term, while passively holding another for the long term

Diversification is also matter and be sure that do not invest all of your money in just 1 coin

Diversification is meaningless with crypto. If you want to reduce risks (as this is what diversification essentially comes down to), simply buy Bitcoin and forget about altcoins
12  Local / Альтернативные криптовалюты / Re: Переоценка-недооценка альтов on: February 26, 2020, 09:46:22 PM
По моему мнению совершенно недооценен Лайткоин, это монета на которой тестируются и применяются все обновления для биткоина, у лайткоина очень большое будущее, жаль что монета сейчас недооценена

Ценность лайта совсем в другом

Эта монета как будто специально создана для спекуляций. Если биток инвестиционный актив, то лайт - спекулятивный. Поэтому если рассматривать данную криптовалюту с именно такой колокольни, то нельзя говорить, что лайт как-то недооценен или наоборот переоценен. Правильнее говорить о его мощной или слабой волатильности, ибо волатильность лайта - это его базовая ценность и первичное достоинство, а не какой-то конкретный ценник, высокий или не очень
13  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Bitcoin good for the economy? on: February 26, 2020, 07:56:32 PM
Isn’t Bitcoin already a medium of exchange?

No, it is not. Being a medium of exchange assumes goods and services are exchanged with the help of something (in this case Bitcoin). But so far the only important type of exchange occurs on exchanges where one wannabe medium of exchange (Bitcoin) is exchanged for another (say, the US dollar)

And yes, Bitcoin was created to be transacted and circulated since that's how a medium of exchange is supposed to work in practice and real life. But the latter doesn't follow from the former. In other words, Bitcoin as a transaction vehicle doesn't automatically make it a medium of exchange. Not all transactions are born equal, so to speak
14  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: About Compulsive gambling. on: February 26, 2020, 07:19:26 PM
~ Really, if you are truly addicted to something (say, your wifie or hubby, or whatever), but it is beneficial to you and those around you, would you even call it an addiction?

Buddhists would object, Smiley but I'm no Buddhist, so, yep, I agree with you, there are some good addictions out there, for sure

But that's definitely not all

It is totally fine to feel certain inclinations and propensities which may develop into what we would call a form of addiction. I think you would be a sort of robot if you didn't, but then it would definitely be a mental disorder. I don't know if DSM-5 mentions anything to that effect, but this human being would be completely asocial

I'm no buddhist either (just curious) but I don't think they can get rid of all possible addictions. If anything, their addiction would be to feel like they have no addiction since you can't transcend without being addicted to transcendence, right? Really, why would you if you didn't? Regardless, such a person would be of great interest to a psychiatrist
15  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What's in the game, after all? on: February 26, 2020, 03:25:45 PM
~
It proves that with higher multipliers you are more susceptible to bouts of bad luck.

Idk, to me bad luck is when you bet with 95% win chance and lose. When I bet with 0.01% win chance(which I frequently do), I don't consider it bad luck when I lose, tbh. That's why I almost never bet with 50%+ win chance, I don't want to give that bad luck a chance

Opinions obviously vary

As I got it, you consider the whole process statically, i.e. you weigh your chances for the next roll only. In other words, if you expect to lose but win (like with a very high multiplier, meaning a low win chance), it is good luck to you. Conversely, if you expect to win but lose (with a very low multiplier,  meaning a high win chance), it is bad luck. But what you expect to get is what you are expected to get anyway, luck aside (pardon the seeming tautology)

I, on the other hand, think of the whole process more in terms of losing streaks rather than single rolls. In this way, if I see a longer losing streak than I would expect on any given multiplier, it is bad luck to me (and vice versa). But with higher multipliers (lower chances) you are going to see greater variance, and that means both shorter and longer losing streaks (bad luck on the loose) than what you would otherwise expect
16  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What's in the game, after all? on: February 26, 2020, 07:40:45 AM
It's true this time, but I could also win two times within the first 5 rolls. I'm sure it happened to you more than once, that you were winning with 10% win chance from the very first try. (Once I won with 1% win chance from the first roll). But neither of that proves anything, imo. It's all down to luck: you can lose everything you have within an hour, and, on the other hand, you can be winning consistently for years in a row. I still don't see a mathematical proof of the impossibility of that.
Winning consistenly for years in a row is like winning at the lottery or finding a suitcase full of banknotes in the street, or even receiving an unwilling transaction on your btc wallet or your bank account, it's very unlikely to happen...
And you shouldn't forget that btc security is based on that : everyone can get the same private key or wallet seed as you, but because of the likelihood of that, it's very unlikely to happen during your lifetime, even if it's not impossible

We have already discussed that

What our fellow member and gambler has in his mind seems to be a little bit different. First, everyone has their own understanding of the term "consistently". To me, for example, consistently means more day after day (read, pretty regularly). But we have already established that rolling a few couple times a month can also be considered consistent (regular) gambling on a long enough time line (say, 20 years). And if there were many, many millions of such gamblers (actually more like billions), there could in fact be a few winners of that kind, i.e. consistent winners, due to the law of large numbers (read, purely statistically)
17  Economy / Economics / Re: How do manage portfolio efficiently while having a full time job? on: February 25, 2020, 07:33:11 PM
you mean 9 to 5 hours  of job per day ? what kind of job was that , a typical job is only 6 to hours max and the rest are only be overtime  or you must be doing alot of overtimes  ? well if this is your work schedule you are always tired and cant do any sideline jobs    .  i believe you are already earning alot so there is no need for you to work for more  .  if you really love crypto then you should swap it over your current job   .  i know and you know its unstable but to the person that has a passion on something  , he will find a way to improve his craft  .
Unfortunately, in many of unsuccessful countries typical working schedule is 9 working hours, 5 days a week.
That's sad, but the one who got this schedule would want to escape it asap (for instance with crypto's help)

I like your choice of words ("unsuccessful countries")

The truth is a standard working week around the globe is more like 40 hours, which typically matches a working day often abbreviated as 8-17 or 9-18 (with a one-hour lunch break) and weekends as rest days. With that said:

Quote
The standard working week in the United States begins on Monday and ends on Friday, 40 hours per week, with Saturday and Sunday being weekend days. However, in practice, only 42% of employees work 40-hour weeks. The average workweek for full-time employees is 47 hours

Taken from here. So, should we consider the US as a failed (unsuccessful) country?
18  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What's in the game, after all? on: February 25, 2020, 05:25:48 PM
You already lost in the first few bets as this is what your snapshots reveal.

It's true this time, but I could also win two times within the first 5 rolls

You would have to be extremely lucky for that, the opposite of bad luck in this case

It proves that with higher multipliers you are more susceptible to bouts of bad luck. More specifically, you are going to see more variance, but higher variance means more stopping power. It doesn't matter when you bet small because the more rolls you make the less relevant luck becomes, both bad and good. However, when you are betting big, the first ever losing streak will wipe out your balance

The setup you stick to allows you to last long enough to offset the destructive impact of bad luck, but this is not about the house edge at all. More technically, what you are trying to prove here is beyond the scope of the discussion, which is about house edge taking over luck after so many rolls, any luck for that matter, good or bad

I think it is. If the house edge was not 1%, but 5% instead, I wouldn't have such (positive) results

The higher the house edge the faster it will kick in (read, overcome the effect of luck). Just in case, I'm talking about the standard 1% house edge as in most dice casinos
19  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: About Compulsive gambling. on: February 25, 2020, 10:31:21 AM
Kidding aside, it is only at the first stage that addicts refuse to accept their mental "disorder". At more advanced stages, say, junkies or alcoholics are already fully aware of their destructive behavior, that they are hurting themselves as well as their friends and family. But by then it may already be too late as the disorder has progressed too far

There are no such things as "too late" in this field

But I totally agree with you

As this is what I'm constantly telling people around here myself. That gambling is not the same as drugs (like narcotics and antidepressants) or alcohol. Unlike these addictions, gambling doesn't make irreparable and irreversible changes to the brain apart from what had already been there before this dependence fully developed

Put differently, we wouldn't even call gambling an addiction but for the negative effects and consequences of it, which are entirely external (money lost, families ruined, etc). Really, if you are truly addicted to something (say, your wifie or hubby, or whatever), but it is beneficial to you and those around you, would you even call it an addiction?
20  Economy / Economics / Re: Russia's Cryptocurrency Law - Initiation on: February 25, 2020, 09:51:26 AM
I don't have merits to give you mate, but this is what I'm been saying starting 2017. Russia is contradictory, and you even don't know who is their 'official' spoke person because one day you will see some official saying positive things, the next day someone will totally go against it. So it still boils down as whether Putin woke up in the right side of the bed

Putin never sleeps

With that said, this is all just a facade to me, nothing will chance, so everyone should take with a bag of salt specially coming from Russian government

Right, nothing is going to change

But I have been telling essentially the same since at least 2015. Back then, there was a lot of noise on the forum and in the Internet about Russian ministers openly threatening people with severe criminal prosecution and even imprisonment for just holding cryptocurrencies. I told you guys at once that it was nothing but empty threats

And what d'ya think? A couple years later the Russian tax service announces that government officials are exempt from paying the income tax on profits coming from cryptocurrency operations (read, speculation) and that they don't even have to declare such earnings. So much for criminal prosecution, huh. It's all smoke and mirrors
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