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1061  Economy / Economics / Re: An interesting case of a widespread misconception on: June 29, 2020, 12:41:26 PM
In a pure free-market system, wages are determined by the labor market (supply and demand for labor), it is not directly affected by inflation. For example, when a worker willingly accepts, let's say $2,000 a month, and then the price of goods and services increases, and he might not want the job anymore. But the firm doesn't have to raise his wage because of inflation

There are two important points worth mentioning

First, inflation reflects the price growth (as per definition), and the latter in general means that a given company starts to sell their goods and services at a higher price (to whoever it may concern, please note the use of the phrase "in general"). In turn, that typically translates to an almost automatic increase in wages (though with a certain lag depending on the production cycle of the company)

Then, good companies take particular care that it never comes to the point when their labor force "might not want the job anymore", for the simple reason if they didn't, someone else would. The implication is that employers are vitally interested to keep wages on par with inflation. Failing to do so may be a sign that the company itself is failing. This has an interesting and well-known side effect of inflation that helps employees to find better jobs for themselves
1062  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Physical Casinos Decoded : on: June 29, 2020, 11:57:25 AM
You can check forum like reddit to see how man people were kicked our from casinos for no reasons

I read another story. Don't know whether it is real or just an urban legend of sorts but it goes as follows. Some extremely lucky dude in a brick'n'mortar casino hit jackpot three times in a row. Since it was too late to kick him out anyway, the dealer has been disposed of instead for not doing something to stop that lucky bastard halfway

Take this account of events for what it's worth, though

I never thought that it is hard to work in a casino. If that is happening, that is just cruel. The job of the dealer is to manage a table, not to stop people from winning but I guess that is how the casinos work really. Reality is just a cruel place. I have a friend working in the casino in the past but he never said anything about this, maybe this depends on the casino?

We should not rule out the possibility that it is just a myth

However, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if casino employees could be discharged if something like that happened in real life. You wouldn't really expect someone to win jackpot three times without leaving the table, would you? So the dealer shouldn't have let the gambler go on playing after his second jackpot even if for the simple reason there was something wrong with the odds of whatever game was being played. When you think about it, it kinda makes sense to stop the game at once to look carefully into what might have gone wrong
1063  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Physical Casinos Decoded : on: June 28, 2020, 06:47:02 PM

When it comes to multiple big wins on a consecutive manner or lets say hitting up continuously  then im not surprised if those casinos would kick you out since you would be definitely

the culprit for their business to be on the unprofitable side.Making out alibis or reason for you to be cheating so that you wont able to play further but in most cases its already too late or the damage
had been done already.

There are lots of situations of this kind.

And isn't there a clause in the rules of most casinos that they can refuse to serve a visitor without explaining the reasons? I think on the basis of this, they can't allow to play people who often win, but their cheating is not proven.
Yes they can, maybe not legally but still they can refuse any player from entering into their casinos because casinos owned by private has their own rules as well. The same thing also happens with online casinos as well when someone win bigger they will be accused for some kind of cheating and their funds will be on hold forever

Well, in the latter case you can always complain here

Some tried, with their mileage varying. Regarding land-based casinos, most are located in special zones with "special" laws as well, which in many cases effectively stands for no-law territory (as in "I'm the law"), e.g. casinos located in native American reservations in the States. So don't get surprised when you get kicked out with no reason given, even if your wins don't amount to much on their own
1064  Other / Off-topic / Re: The Pun & Fun Thread on: June 28, 2020, 06:03:22 PM


God made the world, China made the rest
1065  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Blockchain gambling are ushering in new development opportunities? on: June 28, 2020, 05:35:24 PM
So do you think that the Blockchain gambling are ushering in new development opportunities?

Gambling dApps look pretty much like DEX to me (short for decentralized exchanges)

And they probably suffer from the same shortcomings and flaws. Decentralized exchanges are slow, and they lack liquidity. In case of blockchain gambling it translates to fewer players and no useful autobet (at least that's what I saw when I tried it out myself). There are probably other things that make such form of gambling less popular compared to conventional online gambling but these are the major ones

Most recently, in a neighboring topic, one person made claims to an online casino because the hash of the specified algorithm did not match when checking it. It turned out that the site owners made a typo and wrote SHA 512 instead of SHA 256. And this typo was not discovered earlier. This may indicate that not many people play in such casinos

You probably refer to stake.com

If so, I've seen this topic with a lot of stones flying in every direction. However, stake.com is not a decentralized, blockchain-based casino. It is a regular online casino, and as such, it doesn't use blockchain for making bets and storing their outcomes (so that they can be independently checked). If I'm not mistaken, VipGames.io is such a casino, which makes use of the EOS blockchain or whatever goes for blockchain there (I don't know much about how EOS works internally)
1066  Economy / Economics / Re: Crypto's economic value is surprisingly low :'( on: June 28, 2020, 04:57:21 PM
"Stock market capitalization as percent of GDP, 2018 - Country rankings: The average for 2018 based on 63 countries was 70.95 percent."
(Taken from the Global economy)
To put this in perspective, the oldest stock market goes as far back as the 16th century and the wall street market was established around 1792 IIRC. Bitcoins' Genesis block was mined in 2009.

This post wins the thread. Bitcoiners need to exercise some patience.

In 2017, the BTC market reached almost 5% of the size of the gold market. After existing for 8 years. That's incredible to me, beyond all expectations

Mate, it's 2020 today, with coronavirus reaping a grim toll across countries and continents

Anyway, the gold market is not the goal. People still think of Bitcoin in terms of price whereas they should think in terms of use and adoption. And how much adoption have we seen since then? Let me guess, next to nothing? Is there any hope? Will you be happy if Bitcoin becomes next gold instead of a true medium of exchange? As they say, be careful what you wish for. Or am I asking too much?

Everyone should just consider themselves lucky to be early adopters

I heard this mantra prior to 2015, and it had already become a cliché by then
1067  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin can never become a currency. Part 2: reward distribution. on: June 28, 2020, 03:08:43 PM
If we assume that Bitcoin somehow managed to become money (which is unrealistic), it will destroy the fiat currency according to the scenario that I described in my previous post

I went and checked that thread

To sum it up, Bitcoin could only destroy fiat in "your own imagination". You basically assume that the fiat currency would depreciate due to increases in money velocity, but how can it increase if people won't be spending their bitcoins? In other words, you set up mutually exclusive initial conditions, i.e. explicitly asserting that people will hoard bitcoins and implicitly assuming that they are going to spend them. Then you proceed to draw an impossible conclusion, which is Bitcoin destroying fiat. However, in that case you wouldn't even need Bitcoin as any fiat should quickly deteriorate on its own for just being inflationary. You see, there are huge holes in your reasoning

We cannot apply Gresham’s law because we do not have good money and bad money and we do not have legal tender (or any other ways to set an equal nominal value). We only have money and Bitcoin

It's utterly ironic that you yourself appeal to "good old" Gresham’s Law in your first post in exactly the same sense I used it here. How come?
1068  Local / Трейдеры / Re: Трейд криптой, с чего начать? on: June 28, 2020, 10:11:12 AM
Ну тут просто нужно включить мозг и отбросить все остальное

Не работает это, сколько мозг не пытайся включать. Точнее, работает, только совсем в другую сторону

Хотя, справедливости ради нужно сказать, что в других профессиях на симуляторах часть обучения успешно проходят. Например, пилоты. Или медсёстры на манекене

О, моя любимая тема

Как раз про пилоты и симуляторы. Про это уже написаны сотни, нет, тысячи диссертаций и исследований, разобраны десятки катастроф и чрезвычайных ситуаций -- вывод неутешительный. В критических ситуациях инстинкт самосохранения подчиняет себе контроль над разумом, и пилоты начинают делать безумно глупые ошибки. Для этого даже специальная терминология разработана, для авиапроишествий (например, "the leans", "graveyard spin", "the black hole approach", как по-русски не знаю). Самое удивительное, что наиболее рационально и грамотно в таких ситуациях действуют лица с подсознательно суицидальными наклонностями (практически, все боевые летчики)
1069  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin can never become a currency. Part 2: reward distribution. on: June 28, 2020, 06:30:40 AM
We already discussed this matter in the past (here, for your reading pleasure)

Someone has come up with exactly the same reason there, namely, Thiers' Law. However, Gresham's Law, or its proper extension, still persists if we consider two currencies, which are freely exchangeable at market rates. Thiers' Law basically describes a situation when one currency fails as money, i.e. no one wants to accept it. In that case people simply refuse to transact in it, and thus no free exchange is possible. Obviously, this is not the case here. Bitcoin is a worthy speculative asset, and it is not a good idea overall to spend your capital on everyday needs, Gresham's Law or otherwise (read, it is Thiers' Law which is not applicable here)

But Gresham’s law cannot be applied to “two currencies, which are freely exchangeable at market rates”. That’s is an incorrect interpretation of the law’s setting

I know what Gresham’s Law is about. That's why I mentioned its extension

If we create a setting where two currencies (BTC and a national fiat) are widely accepted as a medium of exchange (in other words, are equally liquid), BTC will destroy the fiat currency, which happens according to Thiers' Law. I actually modelled that scenario in Part 1, you must have missed it

You can freely trade Bitcoin for fiat and vice versa

So why does it not destroy fiat? Maybe, exactly because of the extension of Gresham’s Law, that bad money drives out good money from circulation? It's ironic that you try to appeal to the natural outcome of this extension (Bitcoin not being widely used as a means of payment) to support the opposite claim, that Bitcoin would dispatch fiat currencies. However, no one can stop us from analyzing your proposition theoretically, "in vitro". Could you name just one killer feature of Bitcoin that would render the fiat currency useless as a currency?
1070  Economy / Gambling / Re: WOLF.BET - $500 Daily Race! 30% Rakeback! DICE with the best autobet mode on: June 27, 2020, 06:31:13 PM
or even exists

That's the crucial point here

It is all idle talk until there is solid evidence that someone out there has actually wagered that much and is somehow unhappy about that. The whole story is so contrived and fishy with so much agenda insolently showing through and seeping out that it is surprising we are discussing it like it were for real. Anyway, isn't rakeback that something "extra" which you are supposed to get by gambling your ass off? But seriously, wouldn't it be too much of a good thing to ask for?
1071  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin can never become a currency. Part 2: reward distribution. on: June 27, 2020, 05:50:07 PM
It's not done manually

And that's the whole thing about fiat currencies and why they are so interesting. They are unique in their capacity to automatically readjust the money supply as required by the economy via creating as well as destroying what has become known as endogenous money. And while we are at it, you can't match this supply manually anyway as it is simply impossible technically. The central bank changes interest rates, that's true indeed, but it is only to oversee and maintain this self-regulating mechanism

But it is. Endogenous money is not created automatically; it is created by banks at their sole discretion. It is not destroyed that way either; it happens only when the loan is repaid, which depends on the will of the borrower. Banks are known to blow bubbles and borrowers are known to become insolvent

You put forward contradicting claims

First, you say that "endogenous money is ... created by banks at their sole discretion" (which, in my view, pretty well counts for automatic money creation, just in case). Then you assert that it is destroyed "only when the loan is repaid". I guess you can't have money created by banks at will (read, arbitrarily), while at the same time destroyed only when the loan is repaid (emphasis added). As you hint at, banks can create money only when a loan is taken (whether it is prime, subprime, or otherwise is a different matter). Exhaustively simple logic, isn't it?

Without a regulating authority, a fractional reserve system is unsustainable. Banks will inevitably blow a bubble, which will burst, result in a bank run and a total collapse. This actually happened systematically in 19th-20th centuries and led to the emergence of CBs. Could we survive the 2008 crisis without the Fed’s QE program? Unlikely

And how this disproves my point that CB's are there to maintain the health of such a system?
1072  Economy / Economics / Re: China’s digital yuan could replace bitcoin & end US dollar hegemony on: June 27, 2020, 05:12:40 PM
So right now, China is not powerful for right reasons, they do not have money for right reasons. "We are superb cheap and we do not care about human life" is not the same power as "we have big guns and quite stressed, do not test us!" type of power. So, USDT will never be tested by any official Chinese digital yuan let alone an official USD stable coin by the government which would be insanely bigger

All in all, I agree with everything you have said

However, the wily Chinese are known for being extremely cunning and conning. Obviously, they are not going to confront Uncle Sam face to face in the open as that would be a recipe for disaster, at least for the time being. They are more likely to follow the route that the US had been following in the first half of the 20th century, which was to sit on the fence and wait till the dust settled. And then pick up the power from the weak hands of the European superpowers of the time. So, they are going to take small but perfectly calculated steps, probably using other nations as their proxies whenever available and possible until they are ready to deliver a crushing blow to the dominion of the US over the world. The times may have changed, but the power struggles and approaches remain the same
1073  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Physical Casinos Decoded : on: June 27, 2020, 04:38:24 PM
You can check forum like reddit to see how man people were kicked our from casinos for no reasons

I read another story. Don't know whether it is real or just an urban legend of sorts but it goes as follows. Some extremely lucky dude in a brick'n'mortar casino hit jackpot three times in a row. Since it was too late to kick him out anyway, the dealer has been disposed of instead for not doing something to stop that lucky bastard halfway

Take this account of events for what it's worth, though
1074  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin can never become a currency. Part 2: reward distribution. on: June 27, 2020, 03:04:19 PM
The short answer is, fiat currencies are purposefully inflationary

The long answer is that Bitcoin has been made deflationary, due to a hard cap, coin loss, hoarding, or whatever. In the view of Gresham's Law, Bitcoin is good money to be stashed away, while fiat is bad money to be spent shortly. So whenever there is a choice to be made between what to spend and what to save, the choice is evident and straightforward, so there is no need to name it here

That's correct, except that we cannot apply Gresham's Law to Bitcoin. It only works with commodity money and only given that the price of both good and bad money is set exogenously. In our situation Thiers' law is more appropriate, which states the opposite to Gresham's Law

We already discussed this matter in the past (here, for your reading pleasure)

Someone has come up with exactly the same reason there, namely, Thiers' Law. However, Gresham's Law, or its proper extension, still persists if we consider two currencies, which are freely exchangeable at market rates. Thiers' Law basically describes a situation when one currency fails as money, i.e. no one wants to accept it. In that case people simply refuse to transact in it, and thus no free exchange is possible. Obviously, this is not the case here. Bitcoin is a worthy speculative asset, and it is not a good idea overall to spend your capital on everyday needs, Gresham's Law or otherwise (read, it is Thiers' Law which is not applicable here)
1075  Economy / Economics / Re: China’s digital yuan could replace bitcoin & end US dollar hegemony on: June 27, 2020, 02:30:07 PM
I do not agree that digital yuan can replace bitcoin and US Dollar, because there are no benefits that can be obtained by using digital yuan.
I am sure that only Chinese citizens will be using the digital yuan. Besides, it is not possible for many people to believe in China is a communist
and money-oriented country, after all bitcoin and US Dollar are more trusted by many people than digital yuan.

In addition to Chinese citizens, the digital yuan, as before the Fiat yuan, will be used as the reserve currency of other countries. Although the government's decision to devalue the yuan has repeatedly led to such States losing money. This is what will not put the digital yuan on a par with the dollar

We don't know how it is going to function in practice

If it will be hard-capped in the way Bitcoin is or its supply will depend on factors which lie beyond the reach of the Chinese monetary authorities (unlikely but still), such a currency could get traction after all. Otherwise, it will be no more than yet another payment system with a fiat currency as a basis, in this case the Chinese yuan (read, the American dollar hegemony won't be hurt, let alone displaced)
1076  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin can never become a currency. Part 2: reward distribution. on: June 27, 2020, 11:24:45 AM
And how is it supposed to work?

Could you please outline the economic model it is based on? You don't need to delve into technical details, just give us a general outlook from an economic point of view. To give you a lead, please explain how it stands against modern fiat currencies which feature a built-in feedback loop that allows them to automatically readjust to the monetary needs of the underlying economy. Fiat is unbeatable in this regard, and no algo-based cryptocurrency could come close

You are jumping the gun with this question. I’m going to write a large post devoted solely to the issuance model and the supply control. It is complicated and cannot be outlined without explaining some technical features of the platform

Okay then. Though I don't really see why you would need to expound on technical features to explain its economic basis in a couple of words

As far as I understand, what you are talking about is the ability to maintain stable prices (or it’s more correct to say stably inflating prices) in the CB-controlled economies by expanding or contracting the money supply according to the fluctuations of the demand. It cannot be matched simply because it’s done manually

It's not done manually

And that's the whole thing about fiat currencies and why they are so interesting. They are unique in their capacity to automatically readjust the money supply as required by the economy via creating as well as destroying what has become known as endogenous money. And while we are at it, you can't match this supply manually anyway as it is simply impossible technically. The central bank changes interest rates, that's true indeed, but it is only to oversee and maintain this self-regulating mechanism
1077  Economy / Economics / Re: China’s digital yuan could replace bitcoin & end US dollar hegemony on: June 27, 2020, 10:51:55 AM
A digital currency created by the government of a country that likes to monitor and control everything, including their people? Lol, you’re not serious Wink. I’m sorry man, but that crypto Yuan or whatever it’s being called is going nowhere. It’s just going to be in China, and that’s where it will remain, and I am not interested in making use of it

Well, there are various opinions

Aside from that, China’s digital yuan is not their only initiative. They are now planning on starting a regional currency. As per this Cointelegraph article, Chinese powers that be want to challenge the hegemony of the American dollar on the global scale by developing a regional currency. What makes it particularly intriguing is that it is reported to be based on the Chinese yuan, Japanese yen, South Korean won, and Hong Kong dollar, so you can rest assured it will be used for regional payments at the very least if it kicks off for real
1078  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: US Presidential Election 2020 on: June 26, 2020, 09:19:20 PM
I'm not into this kind of thing

So there might be a very specific term in the bookmaking parlance but since you asked and as far as I know, what you are looking for is called arbitrage, i.e. taking offsetting positions to generate a riskless profit. With that said and hopefully being right, I'm not sure if you can technically pull it off with the same bookie (though I'm still interested to find out if you actually can, so bear with me)

Paying attention to that fact that you're from Eastern Europe too (as i am) i think you understand pretty well what does it mean term "fork" in booking. And yeah, books banning for such things if they find that someone doing that. Of course, from one account you can't do fork, because you will be wiped away immediately. Another account and so on used for such things

Well, I didn't mean it that way

Indeed, you can use multiple accounts for this, but of what advantage will they be to you? The arbitrage opportunity can be purposefully and profitably exploited between two different bookies, no doubt about that. But the question is whether arbitrage is possible within the same bookmaker (which I doubt)? As I understand it, the odds are adjusted in such a way that the bookie is always earning something, no matter who actually wins. This, more or less, leaves no room for and essentially rules out internal arbitrage, or fork as you call it (read, they are not fools)
1079  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin can never become a currency. Part 2: reward distribution. on: June 26, 2020, 08:28:30 PM
All fiat currencies can be speculative assets. Why bitcoin can't? There is a whole financial market called Forex, which is based on fiat currency trading pairs such as USD/EUR

The short answer is, fiat currencies are purposefully inflationary

The long answer is that Bitcoin has been made deflationary, due to a hard cap, coin loss, hoarding, or whatever. In the view of Gresham's Law, Bitcoin is good money to be stashed away, while fiat is bad money to be spent shortly. So whenever there is a choice to be made between what to spend and what to save, the choice is evident and straightforward, so there is no need to name it here

The reward distribution is basically a fee paid for a service (securing the network, through mining). The incentive will last only a few decades, which will also generated new coins and properly distribute them alogn the years

At first glance it kinda makes sense

I mean a fee for a service and all that stuff. However, when you think about it, a currency in and of itself is purely utilitarian, and as such, it works better when you don't have to pay for it. And aside from the block reward, the miners are also collecting transaction fees, and these are no going anywhere, at least as long as Bitcoin itself stays with us (read, the incentive has been built in for good as well)
1080  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: US Presidential Election 2020 on: June 26, 2020, 06:58:39 PM
yes, that's the basic idea. this is what i had said:

At least do not try to bet on both them in one book, because i don't know how in your country, but in our (and i think this is in every another country) books banning account if they find that you're doing forks

I'm not into this kind of thing

So there might be a very specific term in the bookmaking parlance but since you asked and as far as I know, what you are looking for is called arbitrage, i.e. taking offsetting positions to generate a riskless profit. With that said and hopefully being right, I'm not sure if you can technically pull it off with the same bookie (though I'm still interested to find out if you actually can, so bear with me)
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