The greed/fear index is back in "fear". The first step towards finding a bottom!


Even the FBI agrees we're going to the moon. And they aren't just some regular permabulls. Money launderers, terrorists, etc. are increasingly using crypto for a reason. Because it's going mainstream, and because it works.

It doesn't automatically go up. It probably will based on historically increasing demand and the relationship between price and stock-to-flow ratio.

There is only a guarantee that new supply will dry up as Bitcoin moves towards zero inflation via the halvings. There can never be any guarantee about demand though. We're all just speculating about that.

Will the "alternative" bear scenario become the "preferred" scenario once the 23-OCT low is breached?


What do you mean by "reverse the entire impulsive wave?" A truncated fifth would imply weakness, but it wouldn't mean the following correction would erase 100% of previous gains.

The bull market is back on, but I don't think we're getting anywhere near $16K this month. That pump to $10.5K was just the initial short squeeze. We probably have weeks of consolidation (like last January) ahead of us.

Good point. He might be playing the market like a fiddle.

He's an equities guy. He knows how to ride the long term bull, so it would be an odd time for him to turn bearish. This is where long term investors should start dip buying if anything.

That's probably the most bearish thing I've ever heard from Tom Lee. Could this be a bottom signal?

What happened to $40k by end of year?! https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-to-40k-in-the-next-few-months-says-tom-lee/

Illegal and also inevitable in the context of CPU mining. Botnets were mining Bitcoin in the early days too! The only reason they don't now is because of the progression of specialized/ASIC mining.

If Monero didn't implement regular hard forks to stave off ASIC mining, this phenomenon would be mitigated. I guess that's the price we pay for ASIC resistance!

Even if un-backed fiat currencies are replaced, government issued currencies aren't going away.

I think we'll go back to some variant of the gold standard, where legal tender is pegged to hard commodity value. Decades from now, I could even see government money being backed by BTC.

It's obviously good news. The rules applying to securities are much stiffer, which is why several CFTC-regulated markets have launched since 2017 (LedgerX, CME, CBOE, Bakkt) but the SEC has rubber stamped nothing.


It doesn't seem clear cut that an ICO must be a security offering. (Most of them obviously are but that's neither here nor there)

As for POS, it's a (flawed) form of decentralized consensus administered at the protocol level. Why would that make it a security?

Where have you been? Bitstamp is notorious for freezing accounts and requiring DNA-level KYC. The complaints about them are rampant. It's at the top of my list of exchanges to avoid.

Read through some of these threads:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5172859.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1928777.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1818079.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2214456.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5064228.0

Come to think of it, Tom was screaming "buy" all through 2018 before the crash to $3000. Maybe he was selling us his bags at the time. You can never trust these Wall Street types.

So yeah, he's probably FUD'ing the market to buy in.

What constitutes a class member? Seeing as this is based on market manipulation claims, are we all eligible to be class members if we're Bitcoin traders? I'm happy to take a cut of $1.4 trillion.

Something tells me Bitfinex and Tether don't have that kind of money though.

Good news can't prop up bear markets. So maybe we're in a bear market. Ever consider that?

Check out this post and scroll down to "Bear Scenario (Alternative)." It's possible the long term bull market is over and we're headed to much lower prices now.

I'm sure Satoshi was aware that computing power might improve over time and that cryptographic standards might become vulnerable. That possibility just wasn't worth burdening Bitcoin with something so unwieldy as Lamport signatures, which are much worse for scaling. He probably figured, "cross that bridge when we come to it."

An extrapolation of the 2017 cycle puts it closer to $300K, but it's possible based on the magnitude of the 2013 cycle. We certainly can't rule it out. The honey badger don't care about the limits of our imagination!

Let's give it a nice round number: $8000

I'm hoping for a much higher price, but if we're still down here come year end, winning 0.125BTC will be a nice consolation. Good luck all!

Bitcoin is prone towards high volume V-bottoms. We haven't seen it yet this time, but when it happens you'll know. The chart may look ugly now, and we might need to tag the 62% fib or maybe last year's triangle levels in the $6000s first, but don't underestimate the honey badger. It's like a rocket once the bottom is in.

People keep making comparisons to the triangle in 2018, but to me this correction is much more like summer 2017 when we dipped from $3000 to $1800.

That's usually how it goes! I've basically forgotten about my altcoin bags at this point. No point selling all the way down here. For the small amount of money it would net to sell them now, I'd rather view them as lottery tickets.


New listings might be a bit sparser than 2017. My overall assumption is that if it's listed on a decent exchange, it will pump.

There will definitely be another altcoin season. It may not happen until a) you've sold all your alts or b) the alts you are holding have all been delisted. Markets are cruel like that.

The ETHBTC daily chart still looks strong, holding up really well against the dump in BTC. Keeping hope alive....

I never bothered with OpenBazaar because it required downloading and installing a client. Too much hassle, plus I didn't really trust the software and I never heard great things anyway.

Is there a browser-based version yet?