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221  Economy / Securities / Re: (GLBSE) TYGRR.BOND-P 6.8% weekly uninsured pass though bond to BTCST on: August 15, 2012, 08:11:48 PM
Thanks for the panic sales, got some cheap share at 0.952 Cheesy

Wish I had more coins on glbse :/

I sold all mine at around 1.0. I don't want to spread the panic, but bitcoin price is climbing massively, most sellers removed their orders and market already started panic buying. I expect the price increase to continue (or even accelerate) and if pirate is really vulnerable to bitcoin price increase, he's closer to default than ever before (remember his bitcoin debt is enormous). I hope this will not turn into another huge bitcoin price bubble that will impact the whole bitcoin economy but the risk is very high for me, so I decided to wait and watch for a while how it turns out.  Undecided
222  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: How Large is BTCST exposure? on: August 15, 2012, 07:20:29 PM
and at 7% per WEEK there is absolutely no need to "determine" if it is a ponzi or not.

In the next period of time Pirate's scheme will collapse, or the interest payout will be slashed, or Pirate will get hacked and the bitcoins will disappear.  How long the period of time is is the only question here.

Many have stood up for Pirate and said a 7% weekly return is quite reasonable for a skilled trader like he.  I just hope those people aren't invested in the scheme, for they may well learn a very valuable lesson in mathematics.  Over the years countless people have claimed 'this time it's different' when claiming returns of several thousand percent per annum (compounded) are quite achievable.

Interest rates have already been cut.. Reduced to 5% next week Sad

yep, that's the signal pirate is vulnerable to BTC price increase. If he needs more that 20k bitcoins for interest payouts each week and he's buying them at exchanges, he may go bust pretty soon. His bitcoin debt is huge.
223  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do we break $12.67 today? on: August 15, 2012, 06:57:53 PM
Anyone notice that there are 60k BTC in asks?  Not much anymore.  This is actually a record low... we haven't seen these levels for over a year, I believe.

It's normal when price goes upwards so fast. When markets go crazy, sellers remove their orders, wait and sell directly into bid side if they see fit. After a while bid side realizes that the price is too high, demand will weaken and new equilibrium will be established. However, we may see some crash before that new equilibrium is reached, as the ask side is really weak and demand will probably drive the price higher then it should be. This will be a wild ride for a while  Cool
224  Economy / Securities / Re: (GLBSE) TYGRR.BOND-P 6.8% weekly uninsured pass though bond to BTCST on: August 14, 2012, 06:29:11 PM
pirate is lowering his rates on some accounts (looks like bitcoin price increase finally cought him). Are your rates staying at 6.8%?
225  Economy / Securities / Re: Hashking's 4.91% Weekly Deposit Special(OPEN) BTCST TRUST ACCOUNT APPROVED. on: August 14, 2012, 06:25:00 PM
UDPATE: 4.91% Weekly -- Direct BTCST Pass Through 0% Insurance 1 week lock in  New rate will be effective 8/20/12.  Existing accounts will be switched over to the new rate on 8/19/12.
Looks like Pirate is lowering all his rates.   If you have any questions about the change over please let me know.


looks like recent bitcoin price increase has hit pirate badly
226  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] Not afraid of risk? Get up to 1% daily! - OBSI.HRPT on: August 14, 2012, 06:12:04 AM
I'm not your investor, but I wonder what currency are the loans denominated in? If it's BTC, then those poor borrowers will suffer highly by the recent bitcoin price increase and will start to default massively. (365% yearly interest rate for a loan is itself enormous and I would expect high default rate). On the other hand if loans are denominated in USD then I wonder how you can keep the 1% daily interest rate while bitcoin price increases.
227  Economy / Securities / Re: Any critics about my portfolio? on: August 13, 2012, 05:57:45 AM
BTCST is without fiat but on the other hand it maybe holds a greater risk.

BTCST is without doubt huge risk, but equally interesting is how this risk could affect the risk of other assets.
In addition to BTCST continuing for eternity, there are 2 possible outcomes:
1) Pirate defaults partially or completely.
Will this lead to a market crash as investors lose confidence in Bitcoin or the BTC securities market, or will it have little or no effect on other assets?

I think btcst is too small that it could create a bitcoin crash. And when it leads to mining bonds getting cheaper... good for me... ill buy more of them for cheap... Smiley Even when bitcoin is crashing again i could buy bitcoins cheap, buy shares cheap and i strongly believe that bitcoin is raising easily after that again.

Number of bitcoins Pirate is operating with is huge in comparison to market depth at the biggest BTC exchange. Bitcoin could easily drop to 5 USD or lower. Pirate does not even have to default for that to happen, just closing down his operation could trigger large panic sells  Wink I personally think that  for this last bitcoin price bubble is Pirate largely responsible. He's selling and buying large amounts of bitcoins each week and promising insanely high dividends. And when bitcoin price crashes don't expect mining bonds to get cheaper. Mining bonds are getting cheaper because difficulty is rising and difficulty is rising in part beacause of bitcoin price is rising and  more equipment is coming online.
228  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MtGox Volatility Trading Bot [GMVT-BOT] on: August 11, 2012, 04:30:16 AM
There are 2 bots, one on BitcoinCentral and one on MtGox.
He's talking about the BitcoinCentral now, the MtGox is the one for the shareholders I think.

Yep, if shareholders will agree I will issue some more shares for BitcoinCentral bot. IPO was for bot working at MtGox (now there are actually 2 bots at MtGox, one at USD market and one at EUR market). BitcoinCentral bot needs more testing and also there are some additional risks, like it's a small less known exchange that can close down more likely maybe, there's no API for trading (I need to parse HTML which is pain in the ass), and I don't have 2-factor authentication for this bot.
229  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MtGox Volatility Trading Bot [GMVT-BOT] on: August 10, 2012, 03:59:51 PM
Added stats for BitcoinCentral bot. This week bot managed to make a profit of 1.81%  Shocked Price swings were huge, at one time price was as low as 7.34 EUR/BTC at other time almost 10 EUR/BTC  Grin Note that this bot is not working for shareholders yet.
230  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MtGox Volatility Trading Bot (proposal) on: August 10, 2012, 04:54:01 AM
This would be true in case we decided to close down the operation and spent all dollars to buy BTC and pay them to shareholders. But if the bot is working and price swingsin the range he is covering, he is making money, no matter what is the price of BTC. Also when I move the range upwards, no money is lost, cause the dollar value of each order is constant and bot is keeping revenue on BTC side (always spending available dollar balance first).

Absolutely key.

Quick suggestion for a feature to add to your bot that I've seen be very VERY successful on MtGox bots:

Look at bid/ask spread - if looking to make a buy order place 0.01BTC sell orders very close to the buy price.
There are a surprising number of people on MtGox who will look at a spread like that, see the most recent sale price and place an order at that, because they're making a regular exchange rather than speculating and they just want it to go through quickly.

Then, as soon as sell volume appears at that price, you buy into it.

You can do the exact same thing in reverse when making sales. Taking advantage of the lack of "depth perception" of "casual" traders can make you a fairly tidy profit on the exchange, whereas a bot as simple as yours seems more likely to see steady growth eventually followed by catastrophic loss.

What do you mean by catastrophic loss?  Cheesy All the revenue bot makes is kept on the BTC side, so he will not make a loss until after operation is closed down at the high price and I will need to convert fiat to BTC. Your  proposed strategy is risky and on MtGox your bait order will be consumed faster than anyone will notice. BTW, I have currently around 1500 very small orders (around 0.01 BTC each) covering the whole range, so I don't see how I could even implement your suggestion. It's not easy to fool the market. This is volatility bot, taking advantage of price movements and it will stay so. You're free to create your own bot and compete with mine  Wink
231  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MtGox Volatility Trading Bot [GMVT-BOT] on: August 09, 2012, 05:38:45 PM
Added stats for the forth week of running bot at MtGox EUR market. First 2 days were pretty volatile, price went down, so bot made some coins when buying lower then he sold last week. The rest of this week was calm, except for today, when MtGox had some problems with disappearing orders on ask side (bot made some advantage of the price swings, though his orders were also vanishing most of the time).
Tomorrow is IPO so you may grab some shares if you want. Money from IPO will primarily go to bot that will work on USD market. If enough shares are sold than bot working on EUR market will get additional funds to work with. BitcoinCentral bot is still being tested, I will post his stats tomorrow, so far he's made 0.89%. After all IPO shares are sold and bot will be ready for some real trading I will raise a motion to sell additional shares to get some coins for him to work with.
232  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: 1 BTC = 1,000,000,000 USD? on: August 09, 2012, 01:49:20 PM
It's an issue with disappearing ask orders. And because of that price is climbing. There's almost non-existing ask side at times :-)
233  Economy / Securities / Re: Motion Raised! Starting a new FPGA mining farm/contract! Cognitive on [GLBSE] on: August 08, 2012, 08:19:55 PM
Is cognitivemining.com down or is that just me?

Try http://macdonaldboats.com/cognitivemining/

Got this from webpage source. Looks valid Garr's website.
234  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] YABMC :: 55Gh Perpetual Mining Bond :: Coupons Now 2x per Week!! on: August 05, 2012, 05:31:04 AM
One thing is certain. Advertised more than a 2% weekly return is a lie (or a damned well calculated statististic)  Grin

@GeoRW,

I think it is relevant to point out the current yield based on the most recent ask. 

It is depleting asset. So the best way would be to measure the speed of price drop (might be somehow correlated with rise of hash speed) over time and include that into ROI calculation. I'm too busy to do the calculations, but I'm afraid you may end up with negative yield. Calculating yield based on current bond market value or 5-day average makes no sense.
235  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] YABMC :: 55Gh Perpetual Mining Bond :: Coupons Now 2x per Week!! on: August 04, 2012, 06:30:16 AM
One thing is certain. Advertised more than a 2% weekly return is a lie (or a damned well calculated statististic)  Grin
236  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MtGox Volatility Trading Bot [GMVT-BOT] on: August 03, 2012, 07:57:20 AM
I added stats for the third week of running bot at MtGox EUR market. In this period price went just straight up, there were only a few swings back, so the dividend is quite low. Tomorrow I will add weekly stats for bot running at BitcoinCentral, so far it has earned almost 0.4%.
237  Economy / Securities / Re: Market Capitalization of top 20 GLBSE assets on: August 02, 2012, 05:40:33 PM
Hi, just curious why CPA and BMF aren't on the list -- both should have market caps over 4,000.

First criteria is total traded volume. These are top 20 most traded assets.

!

Given that the # of outstanding shares is publicly available I find this quite surprising. Why do you call it the top 20 by market cap then? No offence but it's not the top 20 by market cap... The list would look completely different if it was actually done by market cap.

On second look I notice you multiply total shares as well.. Ahh you mean unsold shares too? This is really a weird way of doing it. This isn't a reliable method.

I already changed the title on the OP some time ago. The old title is though still displayed as subject of all posts. And I only count shares outstanding, not total shares. Don't know what you mean by not reliable method.
238  Economy / Securities / Re: Market Capitalization of top 20 GLBSE assets on: August 01, 2012, 06:07:59 PM
Updated table as of GLBSETime 04:10, Wed Aug 01.

   No      Asset      Total Shares      5 day average price      Market Capitalization      %   
   1      GIGAMINING      40000      1.142      45680      23.54%   
   2      BITBOND      88138      0.429      37811      19.48%   
   3      TYGRR.BOND-P      28743      1.021      23426      12.07%   
   4      BIB.PIRATE      15738      1.026      14640      7.54%   
   5      BDT      10000      0.999      9990      5.15%   
   6      MOVETO.FUND      7792      1.139      8875      4.57%   
   7      YABMC      54278      0.153      8305      4.28%   
   8      ZIP.A      9930      0.725      7199      3.71%   
   9      FOO.PPPPT      5989      1.029      6163      3.18%   
   10      COGNITIVE      7870      0.765      6021      3.10%   
   11      PPT.DIV      9000      0.506      4554      2.35%   
   12      PUREMINING      20000      0.189      3780      1.95%   
   13      PPT.B      3000      1.227      3681      1.90%   
   14      PPT.C      3000      1.163      3489      1.80%   
   15      PPT.D      3000      1.098      3294      1.70%   
   16      PPT.E      3000      1.051      3153      1.62%   
   17      TEEK.B      1999      1.09      2179      1.12%   
   18      TYGRR.BOND-B      13074      0.105      1373      0.71%   
   19      TYGRR.BOT      484      0.91      440      0.23%   
   20      PPT.A      0      1.269      0      0.00%   

PPT is out, BDT is in. Total market capitalization of these top 20 most traded assets is 194053.

Mining:   53.12%
Pirate:   34.00%
Other:   12.88%

Hi, just curious why CPA and BMF aren't on the list -- both should have market caps over 4,000.

First criteria is total traded volume. These are top 20 most traded assets.
239  Economy / Securities / Re: Market Capitalization of top 20 GLBSE assets on: August 01, 2012, 10:20:29 AM
Updated table as of GLBSETime 04:10, Wed Aug 01.

   No      Asset      Total Shares      5 day average price      Market Capitalization      %   
   1      GIGAMINING      40000      1.142      45680      23.54%   
   2      BITBOND      88138      0.429      37811      19.48%   
   3      TYGRR.BOND-P      28743      1.021      23426      12.07%   
   4      BIB.PIRATE      15738      1.026      14640      7.54%   
   5      BDT      10000      0.999      9990      5.15%   
   6      MOVETO.FUND      7792      1.139      8875      4.57%   
   7      YABMC      54278      0.153      8305      4.28%   
   8      ZIP.A      9930      0.725      7199      3.71%   
   9      FOO.PPPPT      5989      1.029      6163      3.18%   
   10      COGNITIVE      7870      0.765      6021      3.10%   
   11      PPT.DIV      9000      0.506      4554      2.35%   
   12      PUREMINING      20000      0.189      3780      1.95%   
   13      PPT.B      3000      1.227      3681      1.90%   
   14      PPT.C      3000      1.163      3489      1.80%   
   15      PPT.D      3000      1.098      3294      1.70%   
   16      PPT.E      3000      1.051      3153      1.62%   
   17      TEEK.B      1999      1.09      2179      1.12%   
   18      TYGRR.BOND-B      13074      0.105      1373      0.71%   
   19      TYGRR.BOT      484      0.91      440      0.23%   
   20      PPT.A      0      1.269      0      0.00%   

PPT is out, BDT is in. Total market capitalization of these top 20 most traded assets is 194053.

Mining:   53.12%
Pirate:   34.00%
Other:   12.88%
240  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MtGox Volatility Trading Bot (proposal) on: July 31, 2012, 08:30:04 AM
So this bot basically waits for a wide gap and tries to be the winning bid on both sides of the spread?

He's making money on volatility. Always having gap between orders on the USD side and the BTC side, buying low and selling high. The higher the volatility (up and down swings), the higher the returns.
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