Im amazed this Sevvero monkey is still posting. I had to log in to get this off my chest. You gotta love all the 2013 member wannabes. Rock on !

has to be something with china. so its best we wait for a chinese speaking person to raid their forums and reports back here

igorr, its a fun read when someone is so hardcore against something, yet they still bother to post on the subject.

Mythul, basically you are saying you know better then them, yet they have all the coins and you dont. why would you care about the whales? or you just fearful about your stack? cant you buy more if price drops below $400 or will you loose confidence and dump the rest of your stack close to the bottom, only to chase it again when the sentiment will turn and everyone is bullish and screaming about the runup to $10k per coin in weeks if not days.

Just buy more if think its undervalued, nothing else matters.

I would love to see rpietila re-do this whole list in January 2014. 

Edward50 you still around here after all this time ?  Kinda ironic and hilarious. You were a perma bear at $5 back in 2011, no one can expect that to change at $600 or $400 or $100.

oh bitstamp.net

77.98

Conference is a positive thing, but I don't see how it can pump the price almost 100% to $20.00. If you think that is likely to happen you are living in a lala land. Conference will be mostly bitcoin fans from and around NYC area and few others that will fly in for the event.

my next two re-targets

1758900  followed by
1706000 - 1746000

Because of a massive selling and price dropping below $6 miners started leaving or are being replaced by less and less new miners. If the price will stay above $10 difficulty will most likely stabilize around 1.7mill to 1.8mill for the next few re-targets, but I think its very unlikely that price would stop being so volatile all of a sudden. If price would drop below $9.00 I expect network to keep losing 3% to 5% miners which would result in difficulty dropping at that same pace. If we get a price to rally above $16 I'm expecting 3% to 6% increase in difficulty.

Difficulty is lower but I don't agree with OP that it is plummeting or anything along these lines.

Difficulty dropped from 1.89 down to 1.80 or 5%. I will agree with the fact that difficulty will most likely drop some more, based on the fact that network is still losing its mining power daily. I see outflow of 50 to 100Gh per day. Network top was 14.1Th when price cracked down to sub $9 miners started leaving and are still doing so. I don't think difficulty will drop more than 3 to 5% unless something major would happen to the price in either direction. By major I mean 50%+ move.

I don't agree with OP on his new price target. At least not anytime soon, 4 to 12 weeks. Bitcoin being that volatile its hard to predict basically anything, but my personal opinion right now is, that price simply can not plummet like OP is suggesting. We could see price drop to $9.50 but that's about it for immediate future.

Last time price dropped to sub $6  it was a mix of very unfortunate things coming together at exactly the right time. It was 1 block sell of 26k at the market that dropped the price from $7.xx down to $5.75. This was the biggest 1 block market sell when price itself was already struggling. Whoever was unloading those big blocks could certainly come back and sell more, but at the moment price is very well supported on the bid side and it would take a lot of persistent selling to shake the markets like that again. Also every time we get this kind of shocks to the system, you have to realize that bitcoins are spreading from very few people to the much bigger audience, which is always a good thing. Eventually all the early adopters and maybe Satoshi himself will unload most of their holdings and bitcoins will be held by a greater number of people.

I'm currently waiting to see which way the market will decide to go. I still see the pressure at the moment is to the down side, which means $9.50 area is the key on the downside. If we get a rally and price starts to run, I'm interested in price above $14.00 to $15.00 area. All this are simple key areas from bitcoins trading history.

Edward50, your observations of this player and his/her intentions are very poor/wrong. Price will eventually most likely go lower, but that has very little to do with this player. What you wrote is a fabrication of your imagination and your wishful thinking that bitcoin price should drop.

I'm in no way saying market will rally, I always said in my posts that I think bitcoin is a sub $10 product at its current use. But at this moment anything goes, a $300k buyer could show up just as likely as a $300k seller. Every time we get a quick pop from $7 to $12 on no news, chances are rally won't get far because nothing fundamentally changed in the game. Your sell signal is OK, everyone who bought bitcoins at sub $8.00 prior to this rally should be unloading at least 80% of the position, because right now it is more likely that in a week or a month market will again be trading at  $8.00 or lower, but this does not make it a good short by any means.

Somebody with coins and cash is obviously testing this market. A bit funny that so many of you scream illegal activity when market was selling off and now when it popped on no news or anything, none of you is questioning where all this cash is from.

Whole btc/usd market is in the hands of a few, either its early adopters or some group/individual with cash. Everyone else is playing with lunch money. For this rally to get wings it needs to take out $16.50. Personally I don't think running this market up is their idea right now. Feels like testing to me.

It's pretty pointless for me to talk about this with you, because I can clearly see you don't see things the way they are.

Super short explanation.. BTC at 15 was overbought  and it was bubble in the making. Gold is trending right on its technicals, which you can see on the chart I linked. Gold is hyped by millions upon millions as a protection against inflation. Its easy to buy/sell and free to store. It doesn't take much space to store 1 mill worth of gold. Big boys play a big role about its future price, they will ultimately decide when enough is enough.

Of course gold price will eventually top and then selloff and people like you will laugh and write pages that you knew this all along. But if someone who invests in gold has an average price of $1000 and price tops at $2500 then crashes and drops to $1900, where this poor soul finally sells his position, he/she still made 90% profit. Making profit is the name of the game. Every monkey can predict that everything that ever went up will eventually top and then go lower. Timing is everything and timing is what you missing.

UP DOWN DOWN DOWN

There's no bubble in gold. Charts are nicely controlled by the big boys. JPM said 2500 in 6 months, everyone else will agree and they will run it up no problem.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=t55868999285&r=6804


show me a bubble

This is purely my view of the situation and my initial entry point $6.00 in the post you quoted.

$6.00 was a lucky fill, because someone dumped 26k in one large order tanking market down to $5.75. Some were saying who was this idiot or/and that Mtgox should look into it, because it was most likely criminal activity. All of this is possible but most likely its just another bullshit dream from hardcore bulls, coming up with 1001 excuse why this is happening.

If I was an early adopter who would go big into mining when GPU mining started I would probably have like 200k coins, if not more. Since I'm smarter than the average Joe, I would be unloading massive amounts around $20.00 right after the bubble popped and market bounced back up next day. I would be liquidating every coin to my name. Some might say this is a hindsight, but I'm almost 100% sure I would do that. But if somehow I wasn't as smart or if I didn't know what is the most likely path market will take in the next couple of weeks/months I would be selling below $20.00. Whenever there would be enough bids for me to unload 10k-20k I would do it. Even now, when the price got really low, if I was still holding coins I would be hitting that bid whenever I could. This is basically the only way a large coin holder can sell their stash. He/she can't sit around for hours and fight with all this bots and wannabe daytraders moving around 50 coins all day long. There is simply no liquidity in the market to unload big position. Every time someone wants to sell 15k+ market will have an earthquake. It might not seem like much if you consider market daily volume is 100k, but selling even 10k is a huge problem. Most of the time when we get 100k volume, it because this large seller is unloading ~30k.

Market will slide lower all the way until this big sellers are done and out completely. If they will be done soon, we might be close to the bottom at $4 to $6 range, but if this big sellers are still holding a lot, there is no way market can keep up with the supply. This seller isn't crashing the market, they just want to unload their position. When he/she sells ~30k they stop and market stabilizes for a few days, then gets hit by another 30k in a short time and lower it goes. Every time big seller shows up it creates shock waves, because all the small time traders follow. At first everyone is trying to sell as quickly as possible, then when market is way oversold we get this bots or human daytraders moving around tiny trades on which the market bounces, shoots into overbought on practically no volume at all, then sells down and stabilizes at its new trading range, sitting there until the big seller wants to unload again. Lower the market goes more money is waiting to get filled. This is how market will find its bottom. Then will the accumulation phase start. It might take weeks/months before this phase is over, then we would be finally ready to MAYBE start a new uptrend.


Where to next?

I'm sitting and waiting for big seller to done their thing. Whenever they show up and market tanks below what I consider decent entry based on the overall market picture and volumes we are getting at that time, I/you can buy some coins and sell them if the price gets high enough for you/me to be worth the risk/reward. Will we ever see $20 again? I don't know, but its not really important to me. Bitcoin isn't an investment, it's a trading vehicle designed to work regardless of it's price. Bitcoin functionality doesn't change if its worth $1 or $100.

Bunch of Gordon Gekkos on this forum. I have seen numerous perfect trades since I joined. Everyone saying they making money left and right. One starts to wonder who is on the other side of the trade, since this is a zero sum game - fees. It would make my day that someone claims they filled 10k block at $6.00.

OP I hope you will wire as much as you can and bank on this $15 target. We need as many as we can get to put money where their mouth is. Every bull should be buying or adding at this discounted prices. If it was me, I would add more than I'm willing to lose, because $15 from $8 is worth the risk. Your math skills must be wicked !

Can you read ?! Price $6 has nothing to do with what he said in the title or his opening post. Back to 1st grade you go.

I might share my thoughts here as well.

I think it is way more likely price will bounce higher temporarily from current sub $8. It will stay in a trading range of 7.50 to 9.00, with a possible rally as high as 11.00 in the conditions are right. This would be the ultimate push from a hardcore fans with extra cash. You need to understand that we had 350k volume in the a span of the week and most of this money is still sitting on exchanges. If bulls would somehow be able to start a small rally it could get legs for a short time.

Other than that price dropped 15+% today and 40% since 5 days ago. There was more than enough carnage % wise but this wasn't really met with high enough volumes. There isn't really any need for the market to continue to drop any further today or tomorrow. It still could happen but it is more likely that price would stabilize in 7.50 to 9.00 range. Daytraders would go to work and scalp this thing for a while. Price could somehow magically hover above $7.50 and wait for a new re-target in 7-10 days. By that time we will get a much clearer picture of what miners are thinking about the new price range.

Where to next ?

Lower it will go, easier it will be to find the demand. Then the accumulation process begins. We will have to wait that all the weak hands exit and fresh money goes to work. It might be as low as $5.00 but exact price isn't so important at this stage. Accumulation might take a long while, because there is/will be so many disappointed miners/investors wanting to go out.  Last but very important factor will be Satoshi's stack of at least 1.500,000 coins. How many does he need to sell and what are  his plans for the remaining part of the stack.