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1  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Dice game strategy? on: October 10, 2015, 01:54:15 PM
There isn't any strategies to use in dice games, they are very very risky and would ultimately result in the loss of bankroll. Some strategies may work in the short term but definitely not when talking about the long term.
2  Economy / Services / Re: [BIT-X.com] Earn Bitcoins by Posting | Signature Campaign on: January 03, 2015, 04:29:52 PM
I am dropping from the campaign for now. Thanks for last month Smiley
3  Economy / Services / Re: [BIT-X.com] Earn Bitcoins by Posting | Signature Campaign on: December 28, 2014, 09:44:10 PM
It looks like the payment for senior member just went through as well

7956ef70d89ae236e539e13143ae18d8b9c130fbcbf0e743b200aea15cedc30b
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Its always the darkest just before dawn on: December 20, 2014, 11:13:32 PM
...Bitcoin is a gamble today, as it's fate is far from certain. However "tomorrow" (once it's fate has been established if it will be successful) then it will likely be a good store of value as it's price will have stabilized

Two unreasonable assumptions:
1. Bitcoin will succeed (many clonecoins have died)
2. Price will stabilize
My statement that the price will stabilize is based on the "assumption" that bitcoin will succeed (and is disclosed that this assumption is not necessarily going to be true)
5  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin remittances: a solution for migrant workers on: December 20, 2014, 11:10:26 PM
Sure, the internal system of IOUs sounds like fastest and easiest solution, but what you're missing is they still need to send the physical cash and redistribute the funds adequately to all the agents to regulate the balance. So it is actually more complex and likely far more expensive.

Using BTC as transfer tool, the whole process is completed when the recipient gets the money. With the IOU system - it's not.

Also, internal system means single point of failure. I haven't use WU much, just few times in my life, but happened to me on 2 occasions when agents refused to take the order because 'system was down'.
transferring money would still be necessary as the agents that receive cash fiat will need to deposit the funds to the bank to replenish their exchange account while the agents disbursing the cash will need to sell bitcoin and withdraw to their bank account in order to replenish their cash on hand. This will cause additional costs as customers will need to pay for the costs associated with the same transporting of cash plus the exchange spreads/trading fees that the agents incur
6  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Difficulty Lowering Question on: December 20, 2014, 11:06:21 PM
after all if your not keeping the bitcoin you're mining.. then why the hell are you mining!..

I think most crypto miners are like Gold miners... they mine, sell the gold, and collect the cash.

This is why we all need to focus on merchants integrating Bitcoin on the payroll side.
This is especially true today with the corporate miners out there. Before ASICs become as common as they are today we had more miners who simply wanted to acquire bitcoin but now miners are really only in it for the profit (although some may keep a portion of the bitcoin they mine above the cost of electricity)
7  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Elizabeth Warren and Nancy Pelosi are right on: December 20, 2014, 11:03:53 PM
Money being in politics is not a problem. Having money in politics allows people to make a statement that they agree or disagree with something that is more powerful then just their words. Money allows you to make a statement that can be heard by others (by allowing for tv/radio/print advertisements

It does indeed - but disproportionally more those with money to spend in such efforts, than those who barely scrap by day to day. I mean, it's not a coincidence that policy decisions tend to closely follow the interests of the wealthy, while pretty much disenfranchising the poor and average citizens.

[...] After sifting through nearly 1,800 US policies enacted in that period [policy data collected from between the years of 1981 and 2002] and comparing them to the expressed preferences of average Americans (50th percentile of income), affluent Americans (90th percentile) and large special interests groups, researchers concluded that the United States is dominated by its economic elite.

The peer-reviewed study, which will be taught at these universities in September, says: "The central point that emerges from our research is that economic elites and organised groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on US government policy, while mass-based interest groups and average citizens have little or no independent influence." [...]

Excerpt taken from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10769041/The-US-is-an-oligarchy-study-concludes.html.

Of course, this isn't to say you necessarily have to remove money from the system entirely - that isn't the idea behind those 2 sites I mentioned (I should have been a bit clearer in my last post). Rather, the idea is to find other ways in which campaign contributions, lobbying, and so on, can be made, that is more representative of the interests of the whole population.
The entire population may not have a strong enough feeling towards a specific candidate or a specific issue in order for them to want to donate to a campaign. If both sides of an issue are putting out their own one sided story to the issue then everyone has an equal chance of hearing both sides. If you were to force people to spend money on campaigns then it would be essentially the public financing campaigns that may or may not have a chance of succeeding
8  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Shrem to jail for two years!!! Holy shit! on: December 20, 2014, 10:59:52 PM
2 years, could have been worse. He's still rich as fugg, right?

They don't even have parole.  He is behind bars ALREADY.  Sometimes a judge will give you 7 days to put your affairs in order, but most times they take you 5 seconds after the sentence is read.  Think about that: Shrem spent last night is a cold small cement cell with a stainless steel toilet next to his head and a large black 'roommate'.
He has 90 days to surrender. Still tweeting.
yeah, saw that.  Judge gave him a break and let him get his shit together before reporting. 

I doubt we'll see guys taking it casually when they decide to ignore money laundering laws in the future.  Two years in the Fed Pen is not a cakewalk. Felon for life.  Not a good place to get for a few bucks.
even though he is a "felon", it is my understanding that he still has a job lined up (or is currently working - not sure which). With few exceptions, companies are not barred from hiring felons and Charlie has a lot of experience managing a business and a lot of experience in bitcoin that he should not have trouble finding work
9  Other / Meta / Re: DPR subpoena on: December 20, 2014, 10:57:58 PM
This is not very surprising/interesting, but I thought I'd mention that I received a subpoena for information related to Ross Ulbricht's alleged forum account altoid. I mostly just compiled some publicly-available information. The only non-public data I had to include were some deleted posts in the heroin store topic that were not written by DPR and probably won't be useful in the case.

You might be surprised to learn that this is the first subpoena I've received for the forum.

how many NSA letters have you received?

Nice to see how you rolled over and took it up the ass from the US Attorney. Good job!
Theymos needs to follow the rule of law. Like he said above he could have fought the subpoena on a technicality however they would have eventually compelled him to turn over the evidence that he turned over.

I speculate that you are against him complying with subpeonas because you do not want your identity potentially revealed or evidence against you revealed to law enforcement as you have stolen money from others on here before
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: How Easy is it to Coordinate Price Manipulation? on: December 20, 2014, 10:55:43 PM
It might have been possible to manipulate the price in 2012, but there is really too much money involved in trading bitcoin now to be able to manipulate it. When you have small amounts "moving" the price it is really a consequence and the price would likely have moved in such direction with or without your trade

Right now bitcoin has had a $21,173,900 volume of trades today. Moving the price for any significant period of time would cost a fortune today.
Assuming that your figure is correct, you would probably need to throw at least seven figures (in excess of a million dollars) to potentially move the market in any meaningful amount. That is really just too much money to risk in order to make a few bucks
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: The age old question about BTC-e and it's price on: December 20, 2014, 10:50:02 PM
Why is it that BTC-e is always $5-$10/USD lower than other exchanges?   Thanks in advance.


promo
 
Right now it is closer to $1.5 lower then stamp. I have noticed that it is generally somewhat lower, but I wouldn't say it is 1-2% lower.

I would tend to agree with the above argument that since btc-e does not complete any KYC verifications it is going to attract people who value their privacy. Since it is the sale of bitcoin that is going to trigger potential taxes, people are going to want to use them to sell bitcoin more often then they are going to want to use them to buy bitcoin (when taxes are not applicable)
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: How Easy is it to Coordinate Price Manipulation? on: December 20, 2014, 10:44:41 PM
It might have been possible to manipulate the price in 2012, but there is really too much money involved in trading bitcoin now to be able to manipulate it. When you have small amounts "moving" the price it is really a consequence and the price would likely have moved in such direction with or without your trade
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is Bitcoin’s Bear Market Coming To An End? on: December 20, 2014, 10:41:45 PM
I don't usually put very much trust into technical analysis, so I don't think so. We really are no longer technically in a bear market anyway, I feel that the price has been sideways for long enough so that I would say it is "over"
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Price Bull Market Has Begun! on: December 20, 2014, 10:22:12 PM
CCN is really a junk news site and almost all that they publish is trash. I don't think they even have an editor review their articles prior to publishing.

I briefly looked at the article and I don't think the author's logic is sound
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Shorting have changed everything. We should change too. on: December 20, 2014, 10:06:57 PM
The ability to short any security it good for the long term health of the market. It will prevent any bubble from getting too overheated and will provide support when the price crashes (for when the shorts cover their position).

Although the use of both shorting and the use of leverage can potentially exaggerate price swings when they become extreme, but there will be overall less extreme price swings
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you make of this? on: December 20, 2014, 10:00:12 PM
I would assume that's a whale buying and selling.

Is this based on experience? I really don't have much of a concept of buy and sell walls myself.
I think its rather whales showing buy walls and manipulating the price.
Meh, it is just people trading large amounts of bitcoin at one time (idk if that ticker combines trades all made at the same time so it could even be multiple people buying/selling at the same time)
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: What to expect from bitcoin in December 2014? on: December 20, 2014, 09:50:44 PM
I do think we will see something happen before or just after christmas.

Hold your coins anyway, selling your coins now is a bad decision.

we are moving sideways, no change
Right. Since the end of September/Early October the price has not really moved very much, it is stayed in a narrow trading pattern.

The price has been especially "calm" considering how much volatility the price of bitcoin has had in the past
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: When will BTC go back up on: December 20, 2014, 09:48:31 PM
No, nobody can ever predict the price. Not five minutes from now or 5 days or 5 weeks or 5 years. bitcoin isn't for the impatient so if you can't handle not seeing instant gains it might not be for you.
It is possible to predict with some level of certainty what the price will do in the next several years as economic data can predict where the price will go. It is next to impossible to tell which direction something will go in the near future as most short term price movements are mostly nothing more then noise.

You can however exclude certain extreme short term movements that are extremely unlikely to occur, giving what is left with potential possibilities as to the short term future price
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: The BULL RUN has BEGUN? on: December 20, 2014, 09:43:37 PM
Maybe, maybe not. It is much too soon to tell. Over the past several months we have seen the price go from roughly 400 to 300 then back to 400 (and so on an so forth). What we saw is really just a continuation of the above.

In order for it to be considered a bull market again the price will likely need to break ~450 or so
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Its always the darkest just before dawn on: December 20, 2014, 09:41:52 PM
...
Bitcoin is also useful to me as a way to store value with no counterparty risk. I keep bitcoin stored in ways that will always be accessible only to me and those with whom I share it. I can access funds when I need to, and never have to worry about banking issues or capital controls...

Let's not gloss over the fact that your store of value has lost more than half of its value over the past year.  Such store.  Much value.  Wow.

I expect extreme volatility, and since first jumping into bitcoin in 2011, I said I'd give it *at least* ten years to develop before getting too demanding. So far fundamental development of the ecosystem (and price) have gone considerably better and faster than I expected. 3 years ago it was almost inconceivable that we'd have the current level of success by the end of 2014.

To your point about not glossing over returns, I find my current returns of ~2500% to be satisfactory. That said, I think it's foolish to look at any of this on timescales less than 10yrs or so. This is a long-term experiment.

My point is relatively straightforward:  Bitcoin is an interesting gamble (which, like you, I have taken & enjoyed in the past), but a "store of value"?  Would you call a craps game "a great store of value"?  No, not even if the dice aren't loaded. 
A good store of value does not appreciate tenfold one year and depreciate threefold the next. 
Making your claim that you need to worry less about Bitcoin than you do about banks sound a bit disingenuous.
Bitcoin is a gamble today, as it's fate is far from certain. However "tomorrow" (once it's fate has been established if it will be successful) then it will likely be a good store of value as it's price will have stabilized
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