..paid troll..

Ok, question, MA repeatedly states China will take over and become the financial capital of the world after 2032. How can this be, with the CCP in charge(communist) and their dual currencies system and not allowing people to take money out of the country, who in their right mind would put their money there to create this change? BTW, I never heard MA ever talk about China's dual currency system, I only found out two weeks or so ago, why the silence on this issue which is significant to anyone who considers putting money in China?  I know there has been dual system for trade but evidently to get money out of China you have to convert to US$ only with the permission of the CCP, this explains bitcoin going to the moon since Chinese have no other way to get money out. If this is old news, I apologize.

Yes, those are the channels MA talks about and what annoys me about him. These are not some new discovery or magical secret. There are ascending, descending and horizontal (support and resistance) Channels. From what I understand some traders make a living trading Horizontal Channels, Buy at support and sell at resistance and /or short resistance and buy back at support. I was never able to achieve that myself, different skillset. As to the 60k the yellow channel shows 2041 but the red shows 2027. But as I stated before the red steeper channel may not be sustained. But, I guess if it continues along that red channel, you could ride it up and when it breaks you can run for the exit.  , hopefully before everyone else. Unless the yellow channel has a blow off in 2032 that channel shows 2041 for 60k.

Just a point about charts, as was told to me, "Charts are a graphical representation of human behavior".       

To be honest, I never looked at TA as a time scale but you can make projections. First there has to be a trend and by extending the trendline or channel forward you can guesstimate where the security will be at a particular time in the future. ONLY IF it stays within the trendline and/or channel and no unexpected condition arises, ie correction, recession, war etc, then the process starts all over again. For example IF the Dow follows the red channel and stays the coarse the Dow could be at 46720 on 6/13/2024 but IF it follows above the yellow channel it will be at the same level on 6/3/2032. Another good example is the yellow channel from 2009 to 2019, this channel was created when the Dow made it first low after the 2009 bottom, 2011. So in 2011 IF the Dow continued it upward trend (which it did) you could see where it could be in 2017. Yes, it's hindsight but shows the projections. The trend is in force until the weight of the evidence says otherwise. I posted the same chart but with the two projections on it.

Just a side I personally would prefer the Dow not follow the red channel since the steeper the ascent the more likely a bubble. I would prefer it continue along the yellow channel, slow and steady and less risky. But the market does what it wants, lol.

Btw this is my own personal opinion and observations.

Actually there are 2 more:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/arnold-xu-92624738/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/abbascarmody/

Well, without looking at my own charts and checking some online ones, if you draw a trend line from the 2016 low to to next low and extent it you will see it intersect the 25k-28k area. He, like most follow the trend and project to the future, of coarse for gains. But I usually always look down first before making a decision. Also if you look at a chart from the year 1800  to present, there are some online and MA also posted one, the Dow is nothing but ascending, the great depression is nothing but a blimp on the chart which to me shows the Dow for many reason will go up over the long term. You probably could also judge the direction from those charts also. Just for perspective he also forecasted Gold $5000+ on 11/7/2009, it's on his blog. I'll look further into this on my own charts.

Here's the link to Gold $5000+
http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/03/gold-5000-11-7-09.pdf

Here's my Chart and how Targets can be determined. IMO the Dow from 1/2018 to recent is a correction after a long uptrend. As you can see, the Dow is attempting to continue in the steeper red trend after breaking out of the top Yellow trendline and holding the top yellow channel resistance that is now support. Just an observation and thought.

This is what annoys me the most about him. For months he has been saying how the Dow is in a consolidation and no new highs until 2020. But now he is pumping this 27K and not a word of 2020. Sorry but I didn't listen to him and saw this coming and added more position in my DIA, SPY and opened a new position in QQQ. Yes I anticipated base off of the weight of the evidence. I'd be happy to post my buys from about 1.5/2 weeks ago.

More importantly is the fact that 27k was a major resistance from 1/2018 which has created a triple top and the implications of a break is big. The longer the resistance(1.5 years) the greater the break/ascent. This, plus the fact we have a Head & Shoulders pattern which is normally a continuation pattern. On any breakout there is always a retracement, 27k in this case, so a decline into the fall is not unusual. Oh and the projection on price is from the Dec/18 low is 32,000 and from the first support around 24,000 it's 30,000. This is all TA, so no mystery.  

So, we have resistance at 27k for 1.5 yrs, triple top and a H&S pattern that's usually a continuation pattern. Plus indicators with room to move. Lets not forget millions of traders looking at the same charts and TA. To me this was a buy signal but didn't go to heavy but will buy more on the retracement. Which, if in all the excitement you missed the break is a good entry point.

I'm by no means an expert but this works for me and is available to anyone who wants to use it. Just some observation and actions I took. I guess my point is this could all be done with some research, training and willingness to take the hits(losses) for hardly any cost. In all the years reading MA, buying 1 report and attending 2015 WEC I always fall back on my charts and TA to buy and sell.

So, something to share, a number of years ago I read an article about an investment fund that constantly beat the market. It is a private fund only offered to employees to the Company. The interesting part is the people who ran the fund had created a system solely on science, numbers and correlations. They only hired "Quants", for the people who do not know what quants are ,they are Phd's of various fields, specifically Mathematicians, Physics and Science. Wall street started using them in the mid 2000's but this fund have been using them for much longer. The company also required the quants to NOT have any financial background. At the time their investing record was very very impressive, they always beat the market with returns and performance in the double digit area. Since 1994-2014 their average return was 71%, wow how do I get in, lol. You can't, you have to work for them,   . what's more interesting is they since opened two funds to the general public but doesn't even come close to the performance of their flag ship fund, Medallion fund and the Company's name Renaissance Technologies.

My point is Why would anyone want to sell a system that almost doubles your returns every year? It seems Renaissance Technologies isn't willing to give up their secret trading system to anyone. Which I don't blame them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies

It appears that even his famous one about the 1987 crash was hindsight not a forecast:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg13594110#msg13594110

I would love to see that under the microscope (time line with sources).

There was that one Canadian guy online here who apparently uses Socrates to trade. https://www.mininginteractive.com/ Does anyone know his performance?

Any public trading records available on Armstrong? He apparently did OK trading metals some years back for DB which he likes to show on his blog http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2014/01/DeustcheBank-Fund.pdf but that's pretty much the only thing he's posted as far as trading record. Nothing else, and it is probably because the others don't look so nice.

There is another private blog out about gold and a rally. I'm sure his sub 1000 gold crash will pan out someday...

Armstrong claims to have said in front of a large gathering at some kind of conference in the 80's that he said the market would crash in days due to a large gap in the Reversals which was Black Monday- a long shot, but anyone have it on tape? Or a record he traded it? I don't think Armstrong has any record or else he would have shown it by now.

QUESTION: You are a legend in programming that you seem not to be aware of. The debate has been did your computer achieve self-consciousness?

ANSWER: No. It achieved self-awareness. It immediately knew the government was trying to take it to its secret computer lab in WTC building 7 that mysterious collapsed even though nothing struck the building. They were angry when they realized it had self-destructed. It was aware of its surroundings and it took all but 7 seconds to self-destruct overwriting all code 7 times and shifting around so they could never un-erase and put him back together again.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/self-aware-artificial-intelligence/

Sounds legit.

I have recently read another very interesting book - written by a former employee of Princeton Economic Institute just before MA was thrown into jail.

It is called Not On My Grandfather's Wallstreet, though the book isn't exclusively about MA. It does have many chapters about his run ins with MA, working with him, and then meeting him soon after his release from prison.

That person (who uses a pseudonym) is Barclay Leib, who from what i can tell is a professional and successful trader, who still works in trading to this day. Meanwhile, MA appears to have no real trading history, at least since he left jail. I wonder if he was banned from trading as part of a deal to release him? That would explain the (possible) snake oil salesman selling of events and subscriptions. Nice earner for him...

Lieb is interesting in what he talks about, I will cover that below. He also talks about MA's early life where he used to work for government analysing rockets. He then moved into financial consulting having been so bored working for government, he started reading extensively into history and economic cycles. Ironic that MA explains A students work for C students, and B students work for government.

It seems he was always a B student, not least with no formal education or qualifications in either economics or trading. That I do find interesting as you would never think that. Granted pieces of paper are just that, but then by that same argument, if MA was so incredible, why hasn't he dedicated himself to his art and become a PhD at the very least? It does reduce his credibility.

In the book, MA is called "Marty Amwell" and Armstrong Economics is referred to as "Amwell Economics".

It does not paint a particularly rosy picture of MA and at the time (1999) when the sh*t was hitting the fan. Essentially, ML was using his consulting firm to buy up tobashi transactions among major Japanese companies, who were suffering serious investment/pensions losses. Referenced in the book (but not named) is Naoki Kumagai who was an MA client who he met at his Tokyo WEC event. This guy was later charged with fraud and jailed for 8 years.

The FBI investigation into MA was actually started by the Japanese financial regulators. BL asked MA before he was arrested if he had made any losses, where he was trading through (Edmond J.) Safra Bank. He told BL, something in the region of $400m had been lost.

Fast forward to MA's release from jail and he agreed to meet BL, who explained he was left "disgusted" that MA now denied he had made any losses or had even done anything wrong. MA explained it was Safra who stole the money.

BL explained that after getting out of jail, MA appeared a "complete mess" and his "sharp" mind was no more. He explains of the Armstrong Economics blog back in 2014/15 and how where before jail, MA's writings were on point, now it had turned into irreverent ramblings.

What is interesting though is BL never said the pi cycle was wrong. He actually does believe it exists, though requires further refining. He talks of double the 8.6 cycle (17 years) as major turning points, though his forecasts generally line up with what MA forecast. See some of his articles:
https://safehaven.com/article/248/measuring-financial-time-the-magic-of-pi
http://www.sandspring.com/articles/TechnicalAnalystMagazineJan2009.pdf

I still think MA may have uncovered an interesting theory on cycles that may well be true, however, since getting out of jail, I question whether:
• He still trades anymore, not least as he seems very shady about his current trading (he may well be banned)
• Socrates actually exists or is a ruse to cover up incriminating evidence that would jail him even longer re: the tobashi scam
• His state of mind having been put in solitary for 5 years and almost killed by an inmate who battered his head with his own typewriter
• His finances where, if you are entering your twilight years and need money, would the ethics of making money by lying override honesty?
• His trading prowess where it may well be likely he made wrong bets on USD/JPY and lost HUNDREDS of millions - why didn't Socrates help him avoid this?

StrikeEagle knows why, being Armstrong. I'd also like to know what method he uses to track global capital flows; last I read on the site, it was a third party provider. Armstrong's model requires accurate and reliable data, and if he does not have that, the whole thing is put to question. A single thing goes wrong and, like a complex ecosystem, everything else is affected.

Armstrong has stated time before price and price before time. Both ways. For example, he says NEVER trade in anticipation, wait for the reversals to be elected to show you the way. Then he also states the running out of time trades to trade against the Reversals.

The GMW could just tell us when large gaps are in addition to/instead of GMW patterns. Because we only need large gaps, not the other stuff.

A lot of traders can instantly read a chart at a glance. They wouldn't need a GMW, particularly not when it changes frequently. Also, if a lot of stocks are changing eg dropping hard ala contagion, this is just another way of saying that stuff is correlated. Market beta, if you were. I'd like to know which institution(s) bought the GMW for $250k. I never heard of a single one paying that much for Armstrong's stuff.

Armstrong says he spent over $100M on his system but I'd like to know how he managed to trade his way up there to do so. His site also suffers from bugs and such, as many can attest. I don't have proof of this anymore (it might be in my album actually, but its a huge album), but when I was on reddit, a guy was PM-ing me Daily level arrays well before they were out in the Pro version. He hacked it to get to them. He told me that they were in the system but just hadn't been available to the end users yet. They were changing frequently back then too. If I find it, it will be dated, and thus PROVE Armstrong's so called $100M system has a 2-bit cheap security system. Maybe because it really is cheap in the first place.