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In the last 10 hours BTC on MtGox has bounced just over 261$, like there was an unpassable floor...
Will this resist until the next 'we are almost ready, but please wait a little more' press release ?
Nick
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If I were mr. Gox I would buy Bitcoins on my system (closed for everyone else) and selling them on Bitstamp for a nice 100% or more gain, without taking any risk.
Why should I work to restore the normal operation of my system and lose this wonderful opportunity to make huge gains ?
Nick.
If gox is insolvent and doesn't have any bitcoins, then buying imaginary bitcoins from their customer's account ledgers wouldn't make a difference. In the last few days daily volume on Mt. Gox was around 50K BTC/day ( http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html). With a rough income of 250 BTC/day of commission for Mr. Gox. Sold on BitStamp these 250 BTC are worth around 160K$. If he's able to move this money back to Mt.Gox, he can buy 500 BTC or so, doubling he's wealth. Even if it takes 2 days for a whole loop, we are talking about big money. In a week he's able to easily make around 5,000 BTC, and the money will double every week. If he's able to keep withdrawalk closed on his site for some weeks, he can buy back all the BTC that were stolen/lost/sold and be back on business. Not a bad recovery plan, after all. Nick. |
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Determine what is the dominant opinion and do completely opposite  .. and what is the dominant opinion right now? The only consensus I see is that gox sucks. So, you should invest all your money on Gox. |
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If I were mr. Gox I would buy Bitcoins on my system (closed for everyone else) and selling them on Bitstamp for a nice 100% or more gain, without taking any risk.
Why should I work to restore the normal operation of my system and lose this wonderful opportunity to make huge gains ?
Nick.
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In Tokyo it's now 19.37, no news for today, so the fear will continue di rise, taking the price slowly down.
Nick
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I once again advocate for removing the flash return rate option, it is the main driver for depressed lending rate, and used for manipulation, this is not good for bitfinex itself (which I wrote about before). I agree this would be good. I'm sure flash return rate is convenient for those who can't log in often. However, lately the flash return rate pool has been close to 1 million USD, and that completely clogs the market. Your only way is to undercut the FRR, which drives the rate even lower. Removing the FRR (even temporarily) + my suggestion about the rate filter, would hopefully bring the market back to balance. I don't think the rates we had during Christmas (>1%) are healthy, but this 0.09% is another extreme. The P2P lending idea itself is brilliant, it just needs some fine tuning. Better than that, they can introduce an optional spread to be added to the FRR when placing lend offers. Something like 'Lend at FRR + 0.xx%', by doing so, you can place lends that follows the market, but ask a little more than the standard FRR. This option will also help to avoid the undercut problem. Nick. |
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The strangeness of lending rate.
In these days the volatility has rose wildly but the lending rates are tanking. Can anyone explain me why ?
Nick.
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A little over 100$, probably 113$ or similar.
If Gox shuts down, under 10$.
Nick
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MtGox blocked withdrawal of BTC because of this "design issue that has been largely ignored".
At the same time, they are accepting BTC deposits that are potenitially exposed to the same issue.
They also state that "Bitcoin transactions to any MtGox bitcoin address [...] are not affected by this issue."
Does it make any sense ? Is not this a clear evidence of their bad faith ? Is there something I'm missing ?
Nick
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Mark my words, we will see btc to under $100 by friday... MT GOX will announce they are halting trading indefinitely. Be prepared to buy low if you can!
I have an open order for 10BTC at 110. I think it will be filled before the end of the week. Nick. |
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Then, I paid close attention to your atrocious level of English... and it became clear you are in fact a troll account created by Giancarlo.
You are really smart, I must admit, you caught me, how was it possible ??  But you are right, I'm Italian, as Giancarlo, and this is why my english is so perfect. Nick. |
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Solidity my ass. There is an insurance option for the lender use it and stop screwing the traders.
This Giancarlo is full of s$%$, fcks up every time and never owns up to his mistakes... always somebody else's fault.
My lends were not insured, is an option you can select when lending money. You cannot blame the trading platform for your loss. This crash was largely anticipated and will problably happen again in the near future since BTC must test the 100$ value before rising again. Nick. P.S. I don't know "This Giancarlo" but I think they are making a good job. |
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6) Any trader with more than 3 neurons should understand why we try to protect liquidity providers.
They are the reason why traders can take leverage.
No liquidity providers, no swap, no margin trading.
Every trader should think about this before he start considering the liquidity provider as a blood sucker.
The liquidity provider is the one that makes it possible, and therefore he should be protected for the sake of the leverage, not because we think they are more beautiful than the traders.
Grazie Giancarlo! Today I had more than 50% of my lends closed in a couple of minutes while the market was panicking, without any loss. This is by far the best possible proof of the solidity of the system. Keep up the good work! Nick. |
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Is like stealing candies at the kids.... |
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I might be a noob, but the bubble is popping Nick. |
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This is the chart of the "stage of a bubble". Now we are at in the Return to "normal" phase. I will buy Bitcoins during the desapair phase and you should do the same. (If you Google for similar images, you'll see the same patterns in many other finacials bubbles in the past)  Mind the gap! Nick |
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@ nick32768 not to burn your theory down, but I just don't see what I could do with it. Please add you're thoughts on why it's useful, maybe i'm just missing something  Anyhow I really appreciate your input, so if you have more insight please do share them. I'm looking forward to to them I the past days I noticed an increase of the lending rates when the bitcoin value was heading down. I expected exactly the opposite: lending rates going up when the price was rising. Now there was the technical issue at Bitfinex + the price plunge and the open swaps positions in USD dropper from 21M to 15M, causing my theory to vanish. In any case, when the market is moving, the rates changes quickly, so I find the chart useful in anycase. Thanks again for your efforts! Nick. |
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Yes i also don't understand during this period of high volatility and declining prices, lenders are still offering < 0.3% ignoring Higher Risks involved.
Things are getting better, just taken an small offer at 0.27. Waiting the rates to reach 0.334 (0.3 net), hoping to lend at an average of 0.35. Nick |
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I know the site and is very useful, thanks! I'm a lender and I'm just a little worried about the fact that, despite the huge volatility, the rates are still going down  Nick |
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The amount of open swaps has fallen from 21M to 17.3M after the issue probably also because of the falling prices.
Is this something that should warn about the relyability of the service ?
Nick.
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