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assuming bitcoin does the same trick after each halving we can expect a top at 850k or a top at 200k?
imagine 2021 being the year covid was defeated and bitcoin mooning a few hundred k $ per coin. the whole world will turn into a big party.
Each halving has a smaller effect on coin creation, so don't expect this to be as big a rally as before. Breaking $200k would definitely change my life, so won't mind it at all if I'm wrong! you are right about the diminishing effect of the halvings. on the other hand consider that we never had a millionaire/billionaire/corporate treasurer of multibillion companies FOMO during a bitcoin run-up. a handful of billionaires could buy all the bitcoins. there are 2800 known billionaires and they own 8 trillion USD, which is 50x the worth of all bitcoins. as long as this is the case I believe the magnitude of run-ups is unpredictable in a way that not even a trend can be established. and there is also the concept of escape velocity. one of those future run-ups will not be like the usual bubble burst multiyear suffering. it will just keep rising and reach a level where it is not falling down anymore. This. But the question of course is which run-up. I think there's a chance it'll be this one, with an awful lot of people thrown off the bull and left behind at -20% into too much cash, thinking they can triple their BTC at -70%. There's so many top indicators being written up atm, all with the assumption you should sell and play the multi-year bear that follows. BTC loves fucking assumptions. |
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watching those bitcoin price break outs for years. what I do not get is who is selling? why sell on a breakout in a bull leaning sentiment? price was consolidating for weeks. are those only stop losses and shorters getting liquidated? it looks like if there are still traders placing shorts, trying to get the price down. why?
It’s because there are actually very few sellers that the price shoots up. There’ll be a few badly coded bots, delusional habitual shorters, “I know better” TA types, and some profit-taking traders (price has tripled in a few months), but Mr Market is having to look much higher for enough sellers. |
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My grown-up kids and wife of decades are educated in the convoluted process of retrieving my coins should I get hit by a bus.
I don’t worry about them conspiring to “rob” me, because if that were to happen my life would have been a worthless sham and my problems far bigger than mere money.
Perspective.
I don't doubt that. Surely, they wouldn't rob you. They love you. But your grown-up kids and wife of decades are only humans. Humans make mistakes. The more people you reveal the seed to, the higher the chances the security of your coins is compromised. Period. Wife has a dear sister, they love each other to bits, and women like to talk a bit too much. Out in the pub, chatting away, wife casually mentions to sister that she's OK financially, because husband (you) is really smart, he has taken care of it, by owning Bitcoin. Wife's sister doesn't know/understand much. A few days later she casually mentions this to her colleagues at work: "maybe we should buy this thing called Bitcoin, see, my sister's family is set for life, they own lots of them." Word spreads. The wrong kind of people hear about it. Next thing you know, your family is kidnapped and the seed is wrenched out of you (or the wife). Coins gone, even lives are in danger. Just by a simple, innocent slip of the tongue. But sure, I see your point and I agree, it's just that there's no need to overdo it. Just pick one or two very special people in your life and make sure they understand that they should never ever talk about it to anyone, even those very close to them. Then, as already mentioned, there's Shamir's Secret Sharing, which is a very good way to secure your coins by splitting the seed to different pieces. Everything is compromise and context. Unless we're making a profound political and economic statement (hat tip Satoshi) we will want to maintain access to our coins, and need to choose the opsec compromises that work best in our circumstances. If we lived in a favela or janjaweed encampment I would take different decisions. Here, metropolitan and bourgeois, among our friends we are nowhere near the richest, and among some two-removed we would be considered poor but charming. The WO perhaps doesn't realise just how much money is out there. People build businesses, make shrewd investments, have lucky breaks all the time. People buy the Bentleys and Lambos and Ferraris and Learjets, every day, by the hundreds of thousands per year. No cares that we now fly first, or stay in decent hotels. First and decent hotels are there because plenty of people can afford them. We may one day be gentlemen, but for now we are still also-rans. As far as my wife's sister is concerned we had some lucky investments, could be bitcoin, could be oil or property, no one cares. As I see it there are 3 main threats to my coin. In order of likelihood: 1/ My memory gone, either by death or dementia. Mitigation: train my immediate family to be able to start a difficult process to access physical backups (not giving them the keys themselves) 2/ Attack from state by taxation or confiscation. Mitigation: careful coin acquisition, main stash keys fragmented across various jurisdictions, would need international legal coordination to reassemble. 3/ Wrench attack. Mitigation: various levels of plausible deniability and custodianship. There are a quarter of a million UHNW ($30million plus) people in the world. They manage. It'll be ok. |
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Somebody doesnt want 12k
Slaughter that mini-bearwhale!!!
Seemingly a tough nut to crack atm. We’ll break through by the end of this weekend, I think. There’s often an attack on support or resistance in the wee hours, 3-5 Sunday am, Liverpool time. |
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My grown-up kids and wife of decades are educated in the convoluted process of retrieving my coins should I get hit by a bus.
I don’t worry about them conspiring to “rob” me, because if that were to happen my life would have been a worthless sham and my problems far bigger than mere money.
Perspective.
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I think all the bear trolling and attempts at scamming around Bitcoin is super weird. Go to any Precious Metals web forum and you never see bugs talking about TA charts, elliott waves, when to buy, when to sell, trying to call bottoms/tops, blah blah blah.
Interesting observation. Gold bugs are more at the preserving wealth stage. Coiners largely at the earlier hustling-to-get-wealth stage. The majority of the bugs I've seen on PM forums are self-admitted millennial age range, which blows a large hole in your statement. Unless you mean crypto tarders... who are in the hustling-to-go-broke stage. hmmmm, that's odd, when I was active on the Kitco forum, and later on AgStackers, admittedly 10 years ago, it was a bunch of old farts I don’t doubt your experience, Torque, but mine, over the years, has been much more in line with jojo’s. However, I made no mention of age and it’s not what I’m talking about. In trying to be concise I was perhaps unclear. I think bugs, psychologically, are more interested in hanging on to what they’ve got. That stage of user will come to bitcoin, but is not yet predominant. At the moment we have more hustlers, who hope to become wealthy, despite as you say (and I agree) that trading is likely to lead to losses. |
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I think all the bear trolling and attempts at scamming around Bitcoin is super weird. Go to any Precious Metals web forum and you never see bugs talking about TA charts, elliott waves, when to buy, when to sell, trying to call bottoms/tops, blah blah blah.
Interesting observation. Gold bugs are more at the preserving wealth stage. Coiners largely at the earlier hustling-to-get-wealth stage. |
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Overfinch used to be run by a guy called Crook. He was a charmless salesman who had me counting my fingers after shaking his hand, and these days they don't add anything except an expensive badge.
But... they used to do real engineering and could transform the old "classic" RR from something you only aimed up the motorway into a quite glorious beast that handled and steered like it really shouldn't have done.
Well suited to old Hendrix/Dylan appreciating V8 lovers.
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Masterluc posted a 3-month head and shoulder chart without any comment but a laugh.
On that chart, we're at the top of the right shoulder.
Most head and shoulder charts are scam. Some get it right by pure coincidence (1mil predictions, 1 bound to be right). Ignore. masterluc throws a lot of shit at the wall, some of it sticks but most of it doesn’t. His predictions are more hit than moss these days, I don’t know why he still gets the air time here. For the sake of discussion, I guess. He gained his spotlight long time ago with one bold long term prediction that he got right. Since then, I think his utterances deserve a mention here. More so than, say, Vays's. I do agree he's been misfiring quite a lot lately, like 50/50 - which hints at randomness. He had a stupendous 2013 (I think he was still "lucif" then): massively bullish against the wall of worry, calling the 4 figure figure top pretty much to the day, then declaring for a multi-year bear. All against the crowd and mocked, especially for the multi-year bear which we'd never had at that point. Since then a bit meh. I figure his analysis must have been affected by the money he made, which would have gone a very long way in Ukraine. |
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Colonoscopy completed. Medium sized polyp detected and removed. Biopsy report in 1 week. Expecting benign results.
Take care of your assholes, brothers.
My brother, my exit of body place is a well respected and always kept clean place, I do take care of that area  Talk about shit posting... Merited for achievements in irony... Thanks Totscha. Strive to be a cunning linguist. |
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Colonoscopy completed. Medium sized polyp detected and removed. Biopsy report in 1 week. Expecting benign results.
Take care of your assholes, brothers.
My brother, my exit of body place is a well respected and always kept clean place, I do take care of that area Talk about shit posting... |
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The price is about $3k higher than it should be at this part of the cycle. We are already higher than what the December 2019 peak should be. It’s all gravy.
The recovery from lows has been far faster this time, the only reasoning I think of why that happen is at the same time the similar kind of reversal to reasoning by the Federal reserve (last hard statement was December) in proposing a continual scheme of rising interest rates no matter what; but now seemingly being on a path to completely stop and probably lower rates if any weakness in the economy occurs. Until the fiscal deficit and probably the trade deficit is closed and probably requiring a surplus, I see USD as weakening over years but the market doesn't immediately reflect that and its related to retention of dollar debt vs alternatives. When the ECB has such a weak policy itself and is also involved in QE, the EURO is unlikely to be much an alternative and the Euro bond market is taken up with ECB buying so far as I know. Japan again the market is saturated with new money via QE so again the currency is unlikely to be as strong as it should be vs the dollar. If there is currency weakness worldwide now and predicted ongoing, theres little to oppose BTC or any asset price especially if demand for that commodity is growing. That big switch in sentiment on global reserve money might explain some of the reversal, I dont know if BTC price after that initial reaction then loses momentum and goes sideways after bouncing so high. I spotted this idea of a parabolic rise but a giant rise without pulling back I think is not as positive longterm for stability, I would not guess this happens so soon. Right this moment I see the price as bouncing between two moving average in an increasingly tight range, it seems to be it will breakout but so far price moving downwards has not settled far for long before returning to a similar price under 8000  Guys this last bear market had ZERO bounces of significance. Bulls were dead for a year. So this bounce is not more than expected. In fact, ratio wise it is LESS than the bounce to $500 at the beginning of the last bull cycle. Plus we are now a year from halving. For all we know this could be mid 2013 again. Too many people looking in the wrong places. I think there is a whiff of 2013 between-the-peaks. Using vague feely words is legitimate because the market landscape and participants have changed so much so quickly that I'm not sure we can rely on chart superimposition and fractal comparison as much as we can on more mature markets. There was very little leverage 7 years ago, no futures, no tail-wagging derivatives, far fewer professionals and I doubt any prop desks. Bitcoin can get beaten up, either by the gox matching engine taking 30 minutes to execute a market order and so driving participants to cash, or by futures traders stepping in or deep pocketed shorters determined to get in position for the next run, but it can shoot up with a vengeance that trad markets or newcomers won't believe. The way these dips are being bought is impressive. There's still people convinced they can buy in much cheaper, and I wouldn't be surprised if they're starting to worry. For all its 20k glory the last run did feel like it ended a little early (what can I say? to me it did) like Apr 13, and windy has a point. |
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Best of luck, Bob.
Like many others, I popped into a similar place on the journey round this block. Feels good to have left it behind. We can be happy in a bar with our friend(s) just drinking still water. It's no lesser beverage. It can taste so good and is the ultimate health drink.
...and Jah guide!
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I think it is a new asset in that as it is being established as a SoV at the same time as it's capabilities of a MoE are being bootstrapped. I think most money has had to really become the first one before it could be the second, and I think Bitcoin is going to overlap more than that.
I see it slightly differently: that it's true calling, as it were, is as a personal, portable, permanent SoV. A kind of undying meta-wallet that we can trivially take across borders and generations. We can choose to grow our stash all our lives, give it to the state in taxes, pass it on, spend it, whatever - it is completely within our - the keyholder's - control. Not the border guards. Unbeholden to or trusting any third party, bank or societal construct. It becomes purely that part of us needed to exchange, from time to time, strategic value with others. In that sense, no other currency is needed. But the means of exchange on an everyday basis, the buying a coffee, is a red herring. It has some importance, yes, but only to demonstrate atht the transfer of value can indeed be performed, trivially, securely and irreversibly. It's a kind of proof of concept to the doubters. Undeniably, for banal shopping a credit card works better. Sometimes you don't trust the person you're buying from. In that case you're buying a judge for that credit card 3% who will usually side with you. I don't have a problem with that. In fact it seems perverse that fighting that service is the ditch Roger and Craig are happy to die in. Let 'em. Very possible scenario... Yet when the SoV aspect is mature I do not see why a robust MoE scenario would not be on tap. My above post I am saying I think the two will overlap, but even if they don't once people are really using it for saving I cannot imagine they would not begin to get interested in spending as well... and there is NO reason credit cards cannot still be the tools we use to do it. I agree Roger is a certain kind of ideologue who wants a world where there are no banks or middle men. I get that. And I know there are many people on this thread who want that as well... Hell, I like the idea too! But the thing is, there will always be banks, and credit cards, and middle men, because they will always offer things most common people are not going to want to take responsibility for. Custody, liquidity, credit... You're right, of course. We're just talking degrees. I suppose Bitcoin is a kind of Rorschach - people see in it reflections of their own concerns and emphases. |
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I think it is a new asset in that as it is being established as a SoV at the same time as it's capabilities of a MoE are being bootstrapped. I think most money has had to really become the first one before it could be the second, and I think Bitcoin is going to overlap more than that.
I see it slightly differently: that it's true calling, as it were, is as a personal, portable, permanent SoV. A kind of undying meta-wallet that we can trivially take across borders and generations. We can choose to grow our stash all our lives, give it to the state in taxes, pass it on, spend it, whatever - it is completely within our - the keyholder's - control. Not the border guards. Unbeholden to or trusting any third party, bank or societal construct. It becomes purely that part of us needed to exchange, from time to time, strategic value with others. In that sense, no other currency is needed. But the means of exchange on an everyday basis, the buying a coffee, is a red herring. It has some importance, yes, but only to demonstrate atht the transfer of value can indeed be performed, trivially, securely and irreversibly. It's a kind of proof of concept to the doubters. Undeniably, for banal shopping a credit card works better. Sometimes you don't trust the person you're buying from. In that case you're buying a judge for that credit card 3% who will usually side with you. I don't have a problem with that. In fact it seems perverse that fighting that service is the ditch Roger and Craig are happy to die in. Let 'em. |
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'ello, son. ty for the merit  'twas richly deserved and beautifully allocated If you're thanking me for last night, the pleasure was all mine. We never forget the first time. If I've misunderstood, then I'm afraid you've misunderstood. |
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Bought more at key confidence building points, when it seemed to me that chance of survival, or even success, increased. For example, the non-collapse after the SR takedown and crucially for me, when the US decided to auction seized coins. This is rarely mentioned, but I think those auctions were a huge 'mistake' by TPTB. From their pov, they should have destroyed the coins - instead they literally legitimised BTC.
yeah once the silk road stack was auctioned by the government that was a big turning point. the government destroys seized evidence it considers illegal ie look at all the drugs destroyed by burning etc. by auctioning it i knew it was legit then. dunno about you but back in the day when btc was a few bucks i threw it around like popcorn. just testing various wallets on different computers and to and from exchanges just to see how it worked. ive lost some coins by mistakes, some by forgetting about them. it was never a large percentage of course, but the amount ive lost would be worth a good amount today. but that was very early on when it was unknown if it would even survive. if i had known what it would eventually be valued at i would of course been more careful, as i am now. back then in my wildest dreams i would never even of though it would hit 20k a coin. and i would of just laughed at anyone that said that. back in 2011-2012? pffft. coins were just things to play with. EDIT: i mined my coins starting in 2011, didnt buy them. might be a reason i didnt value them much as i didnt pay money for them. just a byproduct of my gpus. I doubted that it would survive. Money on the public internet?? Just asking for trouble. Surely the design couldn't have mitigated all attack vectors? I fully expected my Qt wallet to be emptied during the first few weeks. I had a go mining, just to try and understand the process, but soon realised it was far more efficient for me just to buy them. We each have our part to play in this most elegant of systems. |
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Surprised that jbreher bought in, respected the guy.
Aww, now my feewings are hurt. Oh well, I gotta do me. Welcome the the thread, D. Lurk.  Hi, thank you. But NB, it's Lerk with an 'e'. The 'u's split from our, talkative, side of the family. We don't hear from them anymore. They never visit, they never write. |
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Welcome to participation, D. Lerk.
Regarding your AMA statement, what has been your BTC investment strategy since 2012? Have you bought/sold any? Did you get distracted by any other cryptos? Have you changed your strategies over the years? or have you been scared out of bitcoin based on various FUD over the years?
Basic strategy has been to view bitcoin as a far-out-of-the-money put on the dollar (as the reserve currency, the one with the most to lose) with no expiry. Whats not to like about that? Very little cost to hold compared to the potential upside. Bought more at key confidence building points, when it seemed to me that chance of survival, or even success, increased. For example, the non-collapse after the SR takedown and crucially for me, when the US decided to auction seized coins. This is rarely mentioned, but I think those auctions were a huge 'mistake' by TPTB. From their pov, they should have destroyed the coins - instead they literally legitimised BTC. Sold about 3% in the 5-digits for treats, but not out of scale to general lifestyle. Played a little with alts, missed ETH though (didn't like the too-slick build-up) now just XMR. Dumped the forks for one-sixth stash boost (thanks Roger). Thought BCH an obvious take-over attempt by the corps and China and would rather have sunk with the ship than be pwned by Jihan, the CCP and fvckin Calvin forcrissakes. Surprised that jbreher bought in, respected the guy. edit: Hi Toxic2040, and thanks for the charts. I like that you present a range. 3 shades of grey, as it were. edit: thanks Globb0, you can be a funny guy |
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