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Question: May 18 Bitcoin Closing Price (Stamp):
$0 - 1 (0.7%)
<$5,000 - 7 (4.6%)
$5,000-$5,500 - 2 (1.3%)
$5,500-$6,000 - 0 (0%)
$6,000-$6,500 - 5 (3.3%)
$6,500-$7,000 - 15 (9.9%)
$7,000-$7,500 - 17 (11.2%)
$7,500-$8,000 - 24 (15.8%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 19 (12.5%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 15 (9.9%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 10 (6.6%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 7 (4.6%)
$10,000-$20,000 - 16 (10.5%)
>$20,000 - 14 (9.2%)
Total Voters: 152

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21167700 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (23 posts by 12 users deleted.)
D. Lerk
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January 15, 2019, 10:55:12 AM
Last edit: January 15, 2019, 11:13:17 AM by D. Lerk
Merited by Globb0 (2), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), infofront (1), d_eddie (1)



Welcome to participation, D. Lerk.  

Regarding your AMA statement, what has been your BTC investment strategy since 2012?   Have you bought/sold any?  Did you get distracted by any other cryptos?  Have you changed your strategies over the years?  or have you been scared out of bitcoin based on various FUD over the years?

Basic strategy has been to view bitcoin as a far-out-of-the-money put on the dollar (as the reserve currency, the one with the most to lose) with no expiry. Whats not to like about that? Very little cost to hold compared to the potential upside.

Bought more at key confidence building points, when it seemed to me that chance of survival, or even success, increased. For example, the non-collapse after the SR takedown and crucially for me, when the US decided to auction seized coins. This is rarely mentioned, but I think those auctions were a huge 'mistake' by TPTB. From their pov, they should have destroyed the coins - instead they literally legitimised BTC.

Sold about 3% in the 5-digits for treats, but not out of scale to general lifestyle.

Played a little with alts, missed ETH though (didn't like the too-slick build-up) now just XMR. Dumped the forks for one-sixth stash boost (thanks Roger). Thought BCH an obvious take-over attempt by the corps and China and would rather have sunk with the ship than be pwned by Jihan, the CCP and fvckin Calvin forcrissakes. Surprised that jbreher bought in, respected the guy.



edit: Hi Toxic2040, and thanks for the charts. I like that you present a range. 3 shades of grey, as it were.
edit: thanks Globb0, you can be a funny guy

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January 15, 2019, 10:57:09 AM

I wonder what exchange they use. Don't tell me they use finex.

Absolutely no way in hell are they using a wild crypto.

The article repeatedly references 'blockchain' and nothing but.

there are all kinds of off the shelf commercial blockchain shit. I posted a few years back there is an option to add one into azure.
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January 15, 2019, 11:57:11 AM
Merited by soullyG (1)

Bitcoin bottomed around 0400 hours GMT on 14 January 2015.  

We are now past that time in this cycle.  If the fractal holds, we have bottomed.  

I just bought again. 

I agree with your conclusion, but on one minor point, the absolute bottom of the cycle was the probably the low on Dec 15 (3122 on Stamp).  That said if the Jan 14th proves to be the lowest point this year, you are correct in the thrust of what you say - that the turning point has been reached. It was certainly the point to look out for and pass by.

I do agree with you, as you know and am glad to see your (superior) TA-based analysis confirms my own feelings and crude trend calculations.  I have also been buying, cancelling my low-ball bids and transferring in all available fiat to mop up what I can before the end of Jan.

It will not be significantly profitable in the short term, although I do think going over 10K before the end of this year is actually very possible (by early November, to stick my neck out).

All this is based on rough overlays of 2015 to now, which have thus far proved sufficiently close to be worth betting on.  November '15 saw a spike up to over 3x the January low that year, but it was a choppy ride to there, see charts for details.

I doubt we will see an exact overlay, as if it gets any closer it will be front run, or disrupted.  But so far...?   

DYOR.
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January 15, 2019, 12:05:43 PM

Im nowhere on the centralised trustles default pseudo trustlist (2nd layer)

my name is mud Sad


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January 15, 2019, 12:06:12 PM

It is said that the Crytptopia hacker could be the one who also hacked etherdelta in 2017 :

https://decryptmedia.com/4495/cryptopia-hacked-etherdelta-2-5million
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January 15, 2019, 12:20:07 PM
Last edit: January 15, 2019, 12:33:33 PM by HairyMaclairy
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

One point of clarification - I was referring to 14 January in 2015 being the bottom for the prior crypto winter, so if we follow the template we have passed the point of most danger for this year.

But yes agree that if the template holds then $3122 was the bottom for 2018 - 19 crypto winter.  Which I am very pleased I bought - if only a little bit because god it felt like shit at the time.

The theory here is that we are slightly front running our previous cryptowinter, so I think we are closely aligned in our analysis.  

Do we dare call a bottom to this cryptowinter? Let’s see what next week brings.

But I think we can start establishing a tentative hypothesis that the 2018/19 winter bottomed at $3122.   We still have at least 6 months of sideways chop ahead of us.  We can still retest the 200 weekly MA as it is rising all the time without breaking $3122 so long as we only test it lightly.    200 Weekly MA is now at $3250 so that support line is gently rising.  
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January 15, 2019, 12:21:58 PM

Does anybody think this Cryptopia ETH hack is somewhat related to the ETC 51% attack the other day?

It is said that the Crytptopia hacker could be the one who also hacked etherdelta in 2017 :

https://decryptmedia.com/4495/cryptopia-hacked-etherdelta-2-5million

He stopped transactions half an hour ago. "Hold" wallet:

https://etherscan.io/address/0xaa923cd02364bb8a4c3d6f894178d2e12231655c

The thousands of micro transactions are disturbing.


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January 15, 2019, 12:25:11 PM

etc monies got returned. etherdelta did not. likely unrelated?
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January 15, 2019, 12:27:19 PM

etc monies got returned. etherdelta did not. likely unrelated?

Isn’t etherdelta a decentralized exchange? How did that happen?
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January 15, 2019, 12:33:19 PM

etc monies got returned. etherdelta did not. likely unrelated?

Isn’t etherdelta a decentralized exchange? How did that happen?
https://mashable.com/2017/12/21/etherdelta-hacked/#VTeiV_MMoqqQ

"Apparently, the smart contracts that govern EtherDelta's behavior weren't compromised in the attack. Instead, the attacker managed to take over EtherDelta's DNS server and serve a fake version of the site to visitors.

This is far more dangerous than the common phishing attack in which a fake site sets up a domain name similar to the real one (such as etherrddeltta.com). Users who visited the actual EtherDelta site in the afternoon (ET time) Wednesday were served a partially functional but still quite convincing version of the site. The attack appears to have been mitigated within a few hours, and the proper EtherDelta site restored, but anyone who interacted with the fake site may have sent ether or other tokens to the hacker. "

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January 15, 2019, 12:36:07 PM

Does anybody think this Cryptopia ETH hack is somewhat related to the ETC 51% attack the other day?


I do, I'll quote my thinking from my previous post so as to not repeat myself,

Are we sure that the Ethereum network is secured?
Sure Cryptopia must have had a terrible security, they take forever to even do a simple fork (for example over a month for ARK, one the few top 50 coins they've listed which is forking less than once every year for big updates). I didn't expect them to have top-notch security systems and procedures.

I don't think the hacker has stolen small-cap altcoins, their price would crush on the news of the hack and the hacker would have gone through the trouble for nothing... that is if Cryptopia was transparent enough to announce the name of the hacked blockchain.
Right now we can only guess, and it seems only Ethereum's wallet and its shit-tokens have been stolen. Could it be thanks to FPGAs/ASICs in combination with the reduced interest from individual miners?

I was afraid that the attack on ETC was a test to prepare for a hack to ETH, maybe the hack to Cryptopia is related.
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January 15, 2019, 12:40:25 PM

^. My bad, my 2nd layer reading was not up to date Tongue

#

Quote
The source of the payments come from other exchanges including Kraken, Binance and Nanopool.

Loving this bit. Especially the Nanopool bit.
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January 15, 2019, 12:44:13 PM

I'm a little bit ashamed at myself at how horrible I am at prognosticating anything crypto-related, but the current issues with ETH, overall, has led me the seriously ponder; "Is ETH truly and honestly dead, and it just doesn't know it yet ?"

I can't see how it survives 2019 without plunging to at least half it's current valuation.

It almost feels like all the individual elements that have plagued ETH over the last couple years, have recently come together, and left it teetering on the edge of being declared a failed project.

The fact that it's nigh-impossible for the average joe to run a full, modern ETH node is a catastrophic oversight in retrospect.
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January 15, 2019, 12:47:56 PM

I'm a little bit ashamed at myself at how horrible I am at prognosticating anything crypto-related, but the current issues with ETH, overall, has led me the seriously ponder; "Is ETH truly and honestly dead, and it just doesn't know it yet ?"

I can't see how it survives 2019 without plunging to at least half it's current valuation.

It almost feels like all the individual elements that have plagued ETH over the last couple years, have recently come together, and left it teetering on the edge of being declared a failed project.

The fact that it's nigh-impossible for the average joe to run a full, modern ETH node is a catastrophic oversight in retrospect.


Don’t write it off.  Look how long Bitconnect lasted. Also no one gives a shit about 51% attacks.

50% of the market is dumb money.  45% is dumber money.

Bitcoin will continue to prevail but we aren’t going to get rid of these parasites sadly.
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yes


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January 15, 2019, 12:49:08 PM

How come the narrative is switching from "Cryptopia hacked" to "Ethereum hacked"?

Is there substantial evidence that the Cryptopia hack was not about hacking into Cryptopia computers but a hack of the ETH network itself?
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January 15, 2019, 12:53:37 PM

sooo, 'connected' in the sense that anything to do with etc and its forks is utter garbage run by incompetent wallies including all the attendant services
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January 15, 2019, 12:56:00 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), infofront (1), Toxic2040 (1)

Bitcoin Technical Analysis 15/01/19: Sharp Rise Indicates Near Term Reversal

Hey guys, here's my analysis.

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January 15, 2019, 12:57:39 PM

I'm a little bit ashamed at myself at how horrible I am at prognosticating anything crypto-related, but the current issues with ETH, overall, has led me the seriously ponder; "Is ETH truly and honestly dead, and it just doesn't know it yet ?"

I can't see how it survives 2019 without plunging to at least half it's current valuation.

It almost feels like all the individual elements that have plagued ETH over the last couple years, have recently come together, and left it teetering on the edge of being declared a failed project.

The fact that it's nigh-impossible for the average joe to run a full, modern ETH node is a catastrophic oversight in retrospect.


I'll have to disagree on that one Bob. Crypto doesn't follow this kind of logic imo.

ETH - as shitcoin is it might be - it is still a player.
Even the shitiest of them all - EOS or XRP are also players.

It's fine being bearish about them, but they are not going to disappear into thin air.
Should ETH fall at half of its current price, it would make it a hell of a buy party. Green dildo style.


Bitcoin will continue to prevail but we aren’t going to get rid of these parasites sadly.

Here we can't get rid of r0ach...


How come the narrative is switching from "Cryptopia hacked" to "Ethereum hacked"?

Is there substantial evidence that the Cryptopia hack was not about hacking into Cryptopia computers but a hack of the ETH network itself?

Well not yet, but Nanopool??
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January 15, 2019, 01:00:03 PM
Last edit: January 15, 2019, 01:17:31 PM by kurious

One point of clarification - I was referring to 14 January in 2015 being the bottom for the prior crypto winter, so if we follow the template we have passed the point of most danger for this year.

But yes agree that if the template holds then $3122 was the bottom for 2018 - 19 crypto winter.  Which I am very pleased I bought - if only a little bit because god it felt like shit at the time.

The theory here is that we are slightly front running our previous cryptowinter, so I think we are closely aligned in our analysis.  

Do we dare call a bottom to this cryptowinter? Let’s see what next week brings.

But I think we can start establishing a tentative hypothesis that the 2018/19 winter bottomed at $3122.   We still have at least 6 months of sideways chop ahead of us.  We can still retest the 200 weekly MA as it is rising all the time without breaking $3122 so long as we only test it lightly.    200 Weekly MA is now at $3250 so that support line is gently rising.  

Oops - my bad, apologies Hairy.  Was not fully concentrating as I am not alone with my screen today.

Yes, it was the low of '15 and the end of the bear cycle, too.

A couple of weeks back Danndann of this parish kindly pointed me to a post I made back then. I rarely predict, it is usually stupid to try:

Buy or die.

Have been.

Admittedly my investment is under water as a whole (I never bought at under $45, too late in for that) but buying at these price has averaged down massively.  

I am happy, I believe capitulation has happened, bar some settling fluctuations, I personally think on balance the downtrend is over.

That was 24 hours before the final dip.  

Anyway.... I agree we may end up with egg on our faces, but I reckon it's a fair call and the balance of probability suggests it's looking likely the bottom is in - a little earlier for the overlay, yes - but for me it makes sense to see the mid-Jan (12th-14th) price as the Rubicon we had to cross, due to its history as the annual low in past years - except after blow off tops.

And following logically from that, if this normal 'annual low point' was higher than the Dec low, I reckon it does offer credence to thinking the bottom is behind us.  

Here's hopin'
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January 15, 2019, 01:01:29 PM

I was very crazy not so long ago. I have changed a lot too. Life is much easier this way.

Well, yes.

I thought about some of these dynamics too.

Many years ago, when I was 18, and just barely leaving my parent's house, I did not own many assets, and by the time I acquired some education and life experiences, it took me well more than 10 to 15 years to rise out of the negative networth territory.

There are probably other factors, as well, that contribute to willingness to take risks, but I do understand that building wealth takes time, and having a larger stake in the system will cause incentives for less risk taking - especially when facing someone (on the street or otherwise) who appears to NOT have anything to lose by getting in a confrontation (even life or death). 

Of course, previously, we have had this conversation youth or wealth, and it is not like we have any kind of choice to be able to make ourselves more youthful, so there remains some satisfaction to have more wealth - even though I did not really seek wealth in my life pursuits, it has been nice that my life choices still arrived at some semblance of such, including what is currently (remains of) my bitcoin investment.

ive been told i am just as crazy risking my life for fun now as i was in my youth. so ive been told by multiple people. the only thing that tempers me from doing it as much is i need to stay alive for my wife.

but still the urge is still there, and very strong. the risks are not vs people, ie putting myself in combat zones, riots or whatever. they are "hold muh beer" types of thing, usually involving machinery that can be forced to do things it was not manufactured to do. the brain starts thinking "i can make that" and i really really have to hold back.

but the grin factor and the rush of still being alive afterwards.. oh man
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