There´s no historical data to user to test maybe because Reversals as standalone investment approach, don´t work. Our research group have built-in Reversals calculation inputs in our software to back-test it. But if you just want to test Reversals election entry/exit system you could just use a simple Excel spreadsheet to test it too. Our back-testing suggest some evidence that results are better than using simple trendlines support/resistance/pivots breakout approach, but NOT good enough to be profitable as standalone system.

Additional, one of the main Reversals features is that they change dynamically if the market make new highs/lows in next time units, so without forward looking capacity from a future teller or something that enable to confirm on the present that in the future the Reversal level will remain valid, it have limited use to trading/investing, specially the Monthly reversals which up to 1 month after election the system can come-back and change the Reversal level or cancel the election or simple change from Bullish to Bearish reversal election (as it happen recently on Crude OIL market). If your broker don´t allow you to change a entry made 1 month ago, you better of not use Reversals as standalone investment approach).

During the last century had been develop awesome work on financial markets - Elliot Waves, Fibonacci, Gann, Larry Williams, John Murphy just to name a few awesome work on the area that we had been able to test together with the Reversals...
1) ALL of them have some validity/value
2) some of them used together are very profitable
3) No amazing indicator/Reversal system or whatever is good enough to be used profitable as standalone trading approach

I started to regular share on twitter some potential trading opportunities that use Reversals, Cycles alongside with other back-tested tools that work very well combined with the Reversals, be my guest to look into it
https://twitter.com/ricardosousaIA

RS

We´re mixing things here.

One thing is MA forecasts, which don´t have any value to trading/investment as the entry/exit timing is unknown variable. If their forecasts were of any value for Investment, they were not given for free from someone that charges so much for simple market history review reports.

 The other thing is Socrates which have built-in some good technical indicators (some of them with fancy names like Energy instead of regular know as Momentum oscillator and Cycles represented on fancy graphics/ARRAY´s instead of plain english cycle is up on X time frame but at same time is down on X time frame like Charles Nenner do on his research/market alerts service).

Some of technical indicators are very valuable, specially the internal calculation of support/resistance price areas (Reversals). But as overall standalone product for trading/investing missing extremely important features:
1) Search on database for setups/ alignment between indicators/reversals.
2) You been able to back-test your ideas using the indicators built-in on the software to find a approach that fits you and more important than that: Gives you confidence to stick to your rules when things start to go wrong on one trade.

As the system is a black-box system, that people suppose to use blind, for anyone that want to invest some serious $, is worthless until the point you be able to replicate the formulas/inputs on the indicators in the "black-box" indicators and you´re successful on built-in the data on a decent software with back-testing features or simple that let you export the data into spreadsheet/excel to back-test and to see with your eyes what really work and what is worthless inside the large number of indicators/tech tools inside Socrates. And getting it to next level, you use what work best from Socrates with what had been working best for you on the markets - Elliot Waves, Fibonacci, Gann, Wyckoff, Cycles studies, RSI, MACD I could go on forever naming good approaches/indicators as the´re +100 good ones. What been working best together along so much tools/approaches you only could know if you can test it.

Without back-testing it you will never know the real numbers/success rate/win rate to be able to manage your risk and build a trading/investment approach.

Using Socrates, is like driving your car blind on a well know route, it could go well and you´re a hero, but most of the time you will just crash your car and have a expensive hospital and car repair service bill!  

RS
https://twitter.com/ricardosousaIA

Who forecast that the Yield on 10-Year Treasury note would fall bellow 2.5% this year? Martin? NO Socrates? NO
Not a single market forecaster/analyst respondent in January´s Wall Street Journal survey of economists predicted that:
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1138184175201193984

You know who called the timing of the last recessions? Nobody. Not the Fed, not economists. Why? Because nobody knows. Confidence and cycles are very tricky things. In case of the Fed I would go further and say that, even if they knew, which they don't, they wouldn't tell anybody!

Now back to primary reason you using Socrates/MA forecasts as investment/trading tool. Do you know what is the forecasts hit rate of MA in last 4 years? No more than 30%, so clearly you have negative expectation of using it as a trading/investing tool.

I will not comment on forecast accuracy of Socrates as it don´t forecast anything, is just a software created +30 years on MS-DOS disaster code & full of bugs but back then that created one of the 1st financial markets historic database of prices and some few technical indicators, on the time that most of the exchanges floor traders markets resources were made by pen+paper. Cutting-edge breaking 30 years ago, underdog nowadays to any current available technical/financial software available on the market.  

If you believe that GOD, super-computer or any person on earth could reach a hit Rate forecasting financial markets of +80%, why do you think he/she will give it away for free on his blog or sell that information instead of leverage their own capital with huge debt and put their own $ on that very accurate forecasts?

Over last 4 years, a small group of high skilled/experienced persons on different areas from Trading, risk management, software engineers, code writers, we have back-test +90% market approaches, theories, strategies including reversals, cycles, Elliot waves, fibonacci, Gann, Pii cycles and all kind of technical analysis tools (which all are basically derivation of the same thing - price, volume and cycles/seasonal information, which is the main information available on all markets). The main conclusion we had reached is that as we try to build a system that reach 70-80% winning trades, the profit of system would drop exponential as the number of trades/year would be reduced exponential and lot of confirmations needed to +70% win rate on trades bring up exponential rise in price risk (the % risk that you have to take or simply speaking the risk/reward ratio will be too high and getting exponential worst as the systems approach +75% winning trades). So, with that in mind, the Win Rate of system isn´t a good measure of their performance, risk/reward ratio or profit factor is much more useful.

I have attended 2 WEC´s already and wasted lot of hours reading MA blog posts and I never ear/read in  
it the profit factor/ risk/reward ratio of any back-test in any instrument in Socrates, but read/ear several claims that Socrates never wrong, he´s always right which is nonsense to anyone with a basic understanding that financial markets are the most competitive markets in the world, so even the best traders/investors edge is very small and of course very far from 100%.

We have to give, merit to MA in one thing. He´s a hell of a salesmen/marketeer! He´s the only person in the world that can Sell a market history review class (WEC conferences) for $2750 or having people paying minimum +$2000/year to beta test 1 instrument/market access in the Socrates database/ black box system. He have top-notch charisma, when you´re close to him and ear him speaking you completely forget that what he´s saying can´t be real, isn´t possible on earth a system/super-computer that is always right or anything close to it.

RS  
https://twitter.com/ricardosousaIA

  

There´s a misconception about the meaning of "turning point" because people confuse it by the english dictionary meaning. But turning point can be a low/high or simple a breakout in the same direction of the trend. How you use that information is the key point as their value is very limited before the fact and you only have enough information, after the fact. After the fact everyone knows what happen in the past, just need to look at a price graphic on the asset :-)

RS
https://twitter.com/ricardosousaIA

pls explain further your approach. You use NQ, YM, ES intraday futures data + VIX. How you see the alignment for a sweet spot entry counter-trend?

yes, I will favour short-positions in next week(s). 2nd scenario is that we continue choppy between Weekly reversals, key turning week for markets looks like going to be week 10 June.

I Notice that you have Reversals numbers wrong. I had tweet the graphic of DOW30 with updated reversals, enjoy!  https://twitter.com/ricardosousaIA

I activate newbies pvt messages. just pvt message me. Don´t post your email on a open public forum, it will be used/abused by spammers.

done, invitation sent! you could now ERASE your message so your email address don´t end up on spam bots email list.

5) Daily reversals aren´t noise, they´re useful to trading intraday/short-time frame and it just represent what market do in short-term, markets don´t trend 70% of the time and as you come down on your time frame, more sideways/trend less is the market action. But you can make money on sideways market, your approach have just be completely the opposite of any trend following system/rules.

11) that isn´t 100% true. To be fair, he call it both ways, so he´s always right. For trading, his blog posts have negative EV (expected value) as it just confuses you and take you away the confidence to make trading decisions, you just freeze and do nothing after your 1st misstep on the market.

12) Socrates don´t miss trends as it have trend following approach to markets. If you refer to stock market bounce since 26th December´18. Socrates started electing Daily bullish reversals in the end of December and Weekly reversals in Jan´19 month end elected Bullish Reversals on US stock market indexes (DOW, NASDAQ, SP500,...)

The major take away you missing on your review is that trading isn´t about forecasting or being right or wrong. Trading is about formulating the possible scenarios and trade in the direction of the most likely scenario to happen. Trade with the odds in your side, will make you $ over time.

Most people have unrealistic expectations about trading systems/ forecasting systems. A trading approach that identify markets trending and enter on the direction of the trend only have to be right around 30% of the trades to make $. Socrates have a trend following approach to markets, so we should expect something between 30-50% winning trades depending on time frame you´re trading. Most people following Martin Armstrong have a misconception about that key statistic, they believe there´s GOD and higher than GOD itself there´s Martin Armstrong Socrates which can forecast markets with something near 80-100% hit rate. That don´t exist in financial markets, unless you´re able to travel throw time!

There had been some years since I stop using this kind of web forums and I stop using it just because of all this limitations, link bans, etc. I received pvt messages from one of the members already, so the issue should be with your account. But I lack full knowledge on this Forum restrictions/rules. Sorry, can´t help you further, Slack invitations have to be sent to a email address. I could suggest you just create a alias email that will not waste your time checking in the future so will be no spam bots issue posting it on a public forum. 

2 of them are private groups but ECM-Traders slack group I can send invitations to anyone who wants to join, just send me your email in a pvt message and you will receive a Slack invitation to join ECM-Traders.

As WEC attendee you will receive some basic instructions and examples how to use Socrates. Most of the conference is dedicated to historical roundup of the markets and one of the most expensive history classes I ever attended.

People which aren´t already experts in technical analysis and have developed a good trading plan will not came out of the conference or after reading their materials with one solid plan.

"Everyone got a plan until they got punch in the face", if you didn't had a solid trading/investing plan before attending the Conference maybe you will get out of it with the Confidence you need to put some $ on the line and get your first punches in the face as wake up call.

Most of the things in Socrates are 100 years old technical analysis stuff, some of them with new fancy names. ARRAY´s on it´s "core" could be described as fancy representation of Cycles, Energy are just Momentum Oscillator. Indicative Ranges and Pivots were calculated and widely used by pit traders on NYSE, CME, CBOT long time before Socrates "born" and still been used as reference for support/resistance/reversals levels. What is unique on Socrates database is the amount of data it have on some key markets like metals which have +2000 years of data. As I said before, Socrates is mostly a huge database, is up to you to came out with a winning strategy to approach the markets. 

For my 1st impression, the members of this discussion group that had come to comment are discussion something they´ve no experience as never attended a Martin Armstrong Conference, aren´t Socrates subscribers. So just hearsay, gossip stuff.

On your defence, I must say if I ever come close to have the perfect trading system, I would not looking to sell it on a Conference/Report. I would open a Prop shop, hire and train traders to trade for me and make great $ for us like I did back on the years I played poker professional.  

Trading the financial markets are just like playing poker, it takes you 10 minutes to learn how to do it and learn all the rules, but it generally take long painful years to begin to Master it...  there´s no short-cuts to years of experience.

Sorry, I´m not here to discuss my performance or initiate a flame war. I´m not here either to defend Martin Armstrong or express my opinion about the person.

I´m here to discuss some of his work/models, which are valid and COULD give you a edge on the markets. Some of his models, are general math derivations and technical analysis stuff, I´m not interested in discuss it. I see value in discussion only their proprietary models.

GMW for me is trash, I trade numbers, not words/opinion or descriptions of what happening in the market;

ARRAY´s is a very complex way of representing cycles, I look at them before my final trading decision but don´t waste more than 10-20 seconds looking at it.

Reversals are the most valuable part of his work (it´s just my opinion)

ECM models and Pii cycles frequency are valuable at academic level, I see as a big improvement over most of economic models/theory on cycles but think have limited use as trading/investing tool.

Can you be concise and to the point. I read it 5 times and still don´t get it.

1) I don´t claim anything;
2) If you were a member of any of the official Martin Armstrong / ECM-Traders slack group you would recognise me by the username as one of the most active members in the groups in last 4 years. I came to here because a new member on Socrates slack group that have attended WEC Rome few weeks ago have mention this group.

The beta testa of a software ends when it is released. It were released few months ago.

Anyway, Socrates is mainly a financial markets database cloud software, is trader´s choice what to do with the information to initiate a trade.

I use mostly Reversals and Cycles. On the following link--->https://cl . ly/cf36fd7b7cea" you find DOW JONES industrial futures (YM) trading ranges in last days. As you easily notice, the market reverse often on Reversals and/or elect them and accelerate move on the reversal election when that happen. With that information there all kind of trading strategies you could build around that. Trade in direction of reversals election, trade against reversals failed election (the trade I have open right now on DOW30), etc.    

on the link use "cl . ly" without spaces  (I waste +20 minutes trying to post a CloudApp link, for whatever reason the Forum erase it and sign the link as suspicious
 

They cut of the ability to see the Reversals from where they were generated/on generation that will allow us to easy filter "what if" reversals and "what if" scenarios trading approach. They cut that feature in charts.

Correct. I been on beta testing user of Socrates since 2015. The 2015 release of Socrates were more powerful and full feature than the "pro" level being now offered. 

Socrates is just a software/financial instruments huge database. It´s up to you to filter the best resources define rules that fits your trading/investing goals and much more important, stick to them without emotional decisions overrules/violations.

I have with me soccer equipment that Cristiano Ronaldo used in one of his best exhibitions in last years, the same tools and could have him teaching me for 1 week how to play soccer and score amazing goals, that will make me a great soccer player in 1 week? in 1 year? in 5 years?!   

Now with new micros US stock indexes futures you should be able to hold positions overnight and let the market workout moves between the reversals. Socrates reversals numbers works great on very volatile markets like QQQ/NASDAQ, OIL,etc...