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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 613334 times)
Kiwibird
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May 20, 2019, 07:39:23 AM
 #5321

I have recently read another very interesting book - written by a former employee of Princeton Economic Institute just before MA was thrown into jail.

It is called Not On My Grandfather's Wallstreet, though the book isn't exclusively about MA. It does have many chapters about his run ins with MA, working with him, and then meeting him soon after his release from prison.

That person (who uses a pseudonym) is Barclay Leib, who from what i can tell is a professional and successful trader, who still works in trading to this day. Meanwhile, MA appears to have no real trading history, at least since he left jail. I wonder if he was banned from trading as part of a deal to release him? That would explain the (possible) snake oil salesman selling of events and subscriptions. Nice earner for him...

Lieb is interesting in what he talks about, I will cover that below. He also talks about MA's early life where he used to work for government analysing rockets. He then moved into financial consulting having been so bored working for government, he started reading extensively into history and economic cycles. Ironic that MA explains A students work for C students, and B students work for government.

It seems he was always a B student, not least with no formal education or qualifications in either economics or trading. That I do find interesting as you would never think that. Granted pieces of paper are just that, but then by that same argument, if MA was so incredible, why hasn't he dedicated himself to his art and become a PhD at the very least? It does reduce his credibility.

In the book, MA is called "Marty Amwell" and Armstrong Economics is referred to as "Amwell Economics".

It does not paint a particularly rosy picture of MA and at the time (1999) when the sh*t was hitting the fan. Essentially, ML was using his consulting firm to buy up tobashi transactions among major Japanese companies, who were suffering serious investment/pensions losses. Referenced in the book (but not named) is Naoki Kumagai who was an MA client who he met at his Tokyo WEC event. This guy was later charged with fraud and jailed for 8 years.

The FBI investigation into MA was actually started by the Japanese financial regulators. BL asked MA before he was arrested if he had made any losses, where he was trading through (Edmond J.) Safra Bank. He told BL, something in the region of $400m had been lost.

Fast forward to MA's release from jail and he agreed to meet BL, who explained he was left "disgusted" that MA now denied he had made any losses or had even done anything wrong. MA explained it was Safra who stole the money.

BL explained that after getting out of jail, MA appeared a "complete mess" and his "sharp" mind was no more. He explains of the Armstrong Economics blog back in 2014/15 and how where before jail, MA's writings were on point, now it had turned into irreverent ramblings.

What is interesting though is BL never said the pi cycle was wrong. He actually does believe it exists, though requires further refining. He talks of double the 8.6 cycle (17 years) as major turning points, though his forecasts generally line up with what MA forecast. See some of his articles:
https://safehaven.com/article/248/measuring-financial-time-the-magic-of-pi
http://www.sandspring.com/articles/TechnicalAnalystMagazineJan2009.pdf

I still think MA may have uncovered an interesting theory on cycles that may well be true, however, since getting out of jail, I question whether:
• He still trades anymore, not least as he seems very shady about his current trading (he may well be banned)
• Socrates actually exists or is a ruse to cover up incriminating evidence that would jail him even longer re: the tobashi scam
• His state of mind having been put in solitary for 5 years and almost killed by an inmate who battered his head with his own typewriter
• His finances where, if you are entering your twilight years and need money, would the ethics of making money by lying override honesty?
• His trading prowess where it may well be likely he made wrong bets on USD/JPY and lost HUNDREDS of millions - why didn't Socrates help him avoid this?


Barclay Leib does appear in his documentary 'The Forecaster': view here on Youtube (in German):https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLCkRxrfo10

at 44mins -  Leib alludes to the fact that he is not sure the story about Safra is real;'.. it could or could not be true..?'
at 1hr20mins - Leib confirms that on 24 Feb 2007 (remember Armstrong is in jail since 1999) - he shorts the market based on the Arrays - a Pi day - and lo and behold world markets tank, based on no news.. it made the '..hairs on the back of my neck stand on end..'


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May 20, 2019, 11:25:15 AM
 #5322

Nasdaq futures down well over a percent so far since the election of the claimed weekly bearish reversal on Friday. No one has posted the actual numbers yet though,  so I do not know what the expected size of the move is.
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May 20, 2019, 02:15:33 PM
 #5323

https://imgur.com/a/VVpSY6B I happened to find the proof I was talking about before by coincidence. See when this was posted? JUNE. These arrays were in the Socrates system well before the Pro version came out. So how were they accessed? Some random Reddit guy Personal Messaged me to show he hacked in and got that info on practically anything he wanted. So what I'd like to know is that if Armstrong is such an amazing computer guy, why was his system cracked by a no-namer from the internet?

https://i.imgur.com/4LckWx2.png Also, excellent low catch on BABA today, only 3 cents from the actual low. Constantly amazed at how the market does this time and time again.
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May 20, 2019, 02:34:20 PM
 #5324

https://imgur.com/a/VVpSY6B I happened to find the proof I was talking about before by coincidence. See when this was posted? JUNE. These arrays were in the Socrates system well before the Pro version came out. So how were they accessed?

Socrates has been available for many that have attended his WECs over the years. I know of an individual that has been receiving socrates reports since the time they were being faxed out decades ago
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May 20, 2019, 02:42:54 PM
 #5325

https://imgur.com/a/VVpSY6B I happened to find the proof I was talking about before by coincidence. See when this was posted? JUNE. These arrays were in the Socrates system well before the Pro version came out. So how were they accessed?

Socrates has been available for many that have attended his WECs over the years. I know of an individual that has been receiving socrates reports since the time they were being faxed out decades ago

That's the thing, the person who messaged me had it for various products for whatever he wanted whenever he wanted while paying only for the basic service. Which reflects lack of security. As for this person who has been using Socrates for decades- does eh profit consistently? And how?
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May 20, 2019, 03:20:23 PM
Last edit: May 20, 2019, 06:38:49 PM by MA_talk
 #5326

I have recently read another very interesting book - written by a former employee of Princeton Economic Institute just before MA was thrown into jail.

It is called Not On My Grandfather's Wallstreet, though the book isn't exclusively about MA. It does have many chapters about his run ins with MA, working with him, and then meeting him soon after his release from prison.

That person (who uses a pseudonym) is Barclay Leib, who from what i can tell is a professional and successful trader, who still works in trading to this day. Meanwhile, MA appears to have no real trading history, at least since he left jail. I wonder if he was banned from trading as part of a deal to release him? That would explain the (possible) snake oil salesman selling of events and subscriptions. Nice earner for him...

Lieb is interesting in what he talks about, I will cover that below. He also talks about MA's early life where he used to work for government analysing rockets. He then moved into financial consulting having been so bored working for government, he started reading extensively into history and economic cycles. Ironic that MA explains A students work for C students, and B students work for government.

It seems he was always a B student, not least with no formal education or qualifications in either economics or trading. That I do find interesting as you would never think that. Granted pieces of paper are just that, but then by that same argument, if MA was so incredible, why hasn't he dedicated himself to his art and become a PhD at the very least? It does reduce his credibility.

In the book, MA is called "Marty Amwell" and Armstrong Economics is referred to as "Amwell Economics".

It does not paint a particularly rosy picture of MA and at the time (1999) when the sh*t was hitting the fan. Essentially, ML was using his consulting firm to buy up tobashi transactions among major Japanese companies, who were suffering serious investment/pensions losses. Referenced in the book (but not named) is Naoki Kumagai who was an MA client who he met at his Tokyo WEC event. This guy was later charged with fraud and jailed for 8 years.

The FBI investigation into MA was actually started by the Japanese financial regulators. BL asked MA before he was arrested if he had made any losses, where he was trading through (Edmond J.) Safra Bank. He told BL, something in the region of $400m had been lost.

Fast forward to MA's release from jail and he agreed to meet BL, who explained he was left "disgusted" that MA now denied he had made any losses or had even done anything wrong. MA explained it was Safra who stole the money.

BL explained that after getting out of jail, MA appeared a "complete mess" and his "sharp" mind was no more. He explains of the Armstrong Economics blog back in 2014/15 and how where before jail, MA's writings were on point, now it had turned into irreverent ramblings.

What is interesting though is BL never said the pi cycle was wrong. He actually does believe it exists, though requires further refining. He talks of double the 8.6 cycle (17 years) as major turning points, though his forecasts generally line up with what MA forecast. See some of his articles:
https://safehaven.com/article/248/measuring-financial-time-the-magic-of-pi
http://www.sandspring.com/articles/TechnicalAnalystMagazineJan2009.pdf

I still think MA may have uncovered an interesting theory on cycles that may well be true, however, since getting out of jail, I question whether:
• He still trades anymore, not least as he seems very shady about his current trading (he may well be banned)
• Socrates actually exists or is a ruse to cover up incriminating evidence that would jail him even longer re: the tobashi scam
• His state of mind having been put in solitary for 5 years and almost killed by an inmate who battered his head with his own typewriter
• His finances where, if you are entering your twilight years and need money, would the ethics of making money by lying override honesty?
• His trading prowess where it may well be likely he made wrong bets on USD/JPY and lost HUNDREDS of millions - why didn't Socrates help him avoid this?



It's extremely unlikely that SEC bans trading for personal accounts.  However, SEC must have banned Armstrong from acting as a formal investment advisor, or taking any role in some hedge fund.

If Barclay Leib validates Armstrong's previous work, but claims work after jail is garbage, then he will be the ONE who can continue the "excellent" work after Armstrong gets out.  He could become Armstrong #2.  That is just one of the many hypothesis.


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May 21, 2019, 02:10:34 AM
 #5327

Looking back at alerts for the day, if LOW can make an open above 109.90 and hit intraday, it can hit 111.80 in less than a week.

If QQQ can open under 182.97 and hit that number during the day, it should be a decent short intraday. I am not a great QQQ trader however, it tends to be tricky- but the setup itself looks nice.

I also think UAL will visit 79 this week. Thinking I should learn to hold overnight sometimes, with smaller size and greater DTE. Am learning; holding XME calls overnight but will close if we gap down.

I'd also like to ask again, if there are any longtime Armstrong followers who consistently profit, please show us how.
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May 21, 2019, 01:23:19 PM
 #5328

Looking back at alerts for the day, if LOW can make an open above 109.90 and hit intraday, it can hit 111.80 in less than a week.

If QQQ can open under 182.97 and hit that number during the day, it should be a decent short intraday. I am not a great QQQ trader however, it tends to be tricky- but the setup itself looks nice.

I also think UAL will visit 79 this week. Thinking I should learn to hold overnight sometimes, with smaller size and greater DTE. Am learning; holding XME calls overnight but will close if we gap down.

I'd also like to ask again, if there are any longtime Armstrong followers who consistently profit, please show us how.

Now with new micros US stock indexes futures you should be able to hold positions overnight and let the market workout moves between the reversals. Socrates reversals numbers works great on very volatile markets like QQQ/NASDAQ, OIL,etc...
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May 21, 2019, 01:37:58 PM
 #5329

https://imgur.com/a/VVpSY6B I happened to find the proof I was talking about before by coincidence. See when this was posted? JUNE. These arrays were in the Socrates system well before the Pro version came out. So how were they accessed?

Socrates has been available for many that have attended his WECs over the years. I know of an individual that has been receiving socrates reports since the time they were being faxed out decades ago

That's the thing, the person who messaged me had it for various products for whatever he wanted whenever he wanted while paying only for the basic service. Which reflects lack of security. As for this person who has been using Socrates for decades- does eh profit consistently? And how?

Socrates is just a software/financial instruments huge database. It´s up to you to filter the best resources define rules that fits your trading/investing goals and much more important, stick to them without emotional decisions overrules/violations.

I have with me soccer equipment that Cristiano Ronaldo used in one of his best exhibitions in last years, the same tools and could have him teaching me for 1 week how to play soccer and score amazing goals, that will make me a great soccer player in 1 week? in 1 year? in 5 years?!  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes
rosousa
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May 21, 2019, 01:45:07 PM
 #5330

https://imgur.com/a/VVpSY6B I happened to find the proof I was talking about before by coincidence. See when this was posted? JUNE. These arrays were in the Socrates system well before the Pro version came out. So how were they accessed?

Socrates has been available for many that have attended his WECs over the years. I know of an individual that has been receiving socrates reports since the time they were being faxed out decades ago

Correct. I been on beta testing user of Socrates since 2015. The 2015 release of Socrates were more powerful and full feature than the "pro" level being now offered. 
psp777
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May 21, 2019, 01:47:34 PM
 #5331

https://imgur.com/a/VVpSY6B I happened to find the proof I was talking about before by coincidence. See when this was posted? JUNE. These arrays were in the Socrates system well before the Pro version came out. So how were they accessed?

Socrates has been available for many that have attended his WECs over the years. I know of an individual that has been receiving socrates reports since the time they were being faxed out decades ago

Correct. I been on beta testing user of Socrates since 2015. The 2015 release of Socrates were more powerful and full feature than the "pro" level being now offered. 

More powerful and full of features? Can you elaborate? In what ways?
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May 21, 2019, 02:30:54 PM
 #5332

https://imgur.com/a/VVpSY6B I happened to find the proof I was talking about before by coincidence. See when this was posted? JUNE. These arrays were in the Socrates system well before the Pro version came out. So how were they accessed?

Socrates has been available for many that have attended his WECs over the years. I know of an individual that has been receiving socrates reports since the time they were being faxed out decades ago

Correct. I been on beta testing user of Socrates since 2015. The 2015 release of Socrates were more powerful and full feature than the "pro" level being now offered. 

Why is this beta not being offered if it is better?

Do you still have it and if so, can you post some real time examples of trades based on them with rationale?

Speaking about yesterday, a nice big rally on XME today. Technicals are all that matter. BABA had a big gap up but I didn't trade that one overnight unfortunately- would have doubled the money. 1.11781 in the Euro as mentioned previously has got a daily open under, so this may be the beginning of a big move down. UAL was one I may be wrong on- I thought it would go to 79 this week but it created a basal formation yesterday and gapped above. 83.63 is another formation, so a daily open above that will have that number as a support for the first time it hits intraday. Didn't UAL either way though, better to be picky about trades and try to get the best ones for timeframes that one can read best. The only trades that should be taken are ones with overwhelming favorability.
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May 21, 2019, 04:08:16 PM
 #5333

https://imgur.com/a/VVpSY6B I happened to find the proof I was talking about before by coincidence. See when this was posted? JUNE. These arrays were in the Socrates system well before the Pro version came out. So how were they accessed?

Socrates has been available for many that have attended his WECs over the years. I know of an individual that has been receiving socrates reports since the time they were being faxed out decades ago

Correct. I been on beta testing user of Socrates since 2015. The 2015 release of Socrates were more powerful and full feature than the "pro" level being now offered. 

More powerful and full of features? Can you elaborate? In what ways?

They cut of the ability to see the Reversals from where they were generated/on generation that will allow us to easy filter "what if" reversals and "what if" scenarios trading approach. They cut that feature in charts.
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May 22, 2019, 03:27:01 PM
Last edit: May 22, 2019, 04:09:35 PM by rosousa
 #5334

https://imgur.com/a/VVpSY6B I happened to find the proof I was talking about before by coincidence. See when this was posted? JUNE. These arrays were in the Socrates system well before the Pro version came out. So how were they accessed?

Socrates has been available for many that have attended his WECs over the years. I know of an individual that has been receiving socrates reports since the time they were being faxed out decades ago

Correct. I been on beta testing user of Socrates since 2015. The 2015 release of Socrates were more powerful and full feature than the "pro" level being now offered.  

Why is this beta not being offered if it is better?

Do you still have it and if so, can you post some real time examples of trades based on them with rationale?

(...)

The beta testa of a software ends when it is released. It were released few months ago.

Anyway, Socrates is mainly a financial markets database cloud software, is trader´s choice what to do with the information to initiate a trade.

I use mostly Reversals and Cycles. On the following link--->https://cl . ly/cf36fd7b7cea" you find DOW JONES industrial futures (YM) trading ranges in last days. As you easily notice, the market reverse often on Reversals and/or elect them and accelerate move on the reversal election when that happen. With that information there all kind of trading strategies you could build around that. Trade in direction of reversals election, trade against reversals failed election (the trade I have open right now on DOW30), etc.    

on the link use "cl . ly" without spaces  (I waste +20 minutes trying to post a CloudApp link, for whatever reason the Forum erase it and sign the link as suspicious
 
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May 22, 2019, 04:06:43 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)
 #5335

https://imgur.com/a/VVpSY6B I happened to find the proof I was talking about before by coincidence. See when this was posted? JUNE. These arrays were in the Socrates system well before the Pro version came out. So how were they accessed?

Socrates has been available for many that have attended his WECs over the years. I know of an individual that has been receiving socrates reports since the time they were being faxed out decades ago

That's the thing, the person who messaged me had it for various products for whatever he wanted whenever he wanted while paying only for the basic service. Which reflects lack of security. As for this person who has been using Socrates for decades- does eh profit consistently? And how?

Socrates is just a software/financial instruments huge database. It´s up to you to filter the best resources define rules that fits your trading/investing goals and much more important, stick to them without emotional decisions overrules/violations.

I have with me soccer equipment that Cristiano Ronaldo used in one of his best exhibitions in last years, the same tools and could have him teaching me for 1 week how to play soccer and score amazing goals, that will make me a great soccer player in 1 week? in 1 year? in 5 years?!  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes


What is the point of telling everyone that you have "invented the airplane", and then tell them that this airplane requires 10+ years of training to master, and that there is no actual training provided along with the airplane?

Anyone can claim that he made a super-AI computer that predicts the future, and the problem of all the subscribers' failed trades is simply because all of them failed to understand this super-sophisticated 72 models.  The problem of failure is always on others, not being able to understand and decode the "array" and "reversals", and never on the models.

If you claim that Armstrong's stuffs are good, then DEMONSTRATE it.  Anybody can talk about the "past" success, and nobody can verify it, because there is no way to distinguish that from fake paper trades.

Since you have traded successfully using such, how about showing your monthly brokerage statements for gains and all the trades that you did.

And show that in this forum that you can do that in real-time too.

By the way, you seemed to be an old timer with Armstrong, and yet you are a newbie on this forum, when all of the previous newbies have disappeared one by one, Strike Eagle, DigiLab, etc.  And yeah, you pick up the trail where they left off in no time.

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May 22, 2019, 04:21:19 PM
 #5336

https://imgur.com/a/VVpSY6B I happened to find the proof I was talking about before by coincidence. See when this was posted? JUNE. These arrays were in the Socrates system well before the Pro version came out. So how were they accessed?

Socrates has been available for many that have attended his WECs over the years. I know of an individual that has been receiving socrates reports since the time they were being faxed out decades ago

That's the thing, the person who messaged me had it for various products for whatever he wanted whenever he wanted while paying only for the basic service. Which reflects lack of security. As for this person who has been using Socrates for decades- does eh profit consistently? And how?

Socrates is just a software/financial instruments huge database. It´s up to you to filter the best resources define rules that fits your trading/investing goals and much more important, stick to them without emotional decisions overrules/violations.

I have with me soccer equipment that Cristiano Ronaldo used in one of his best exhibitions in last years, the same tools and could have him teaching me for 1 week how to play soccer and score amazing goals, that will make me a great soccer player in 1 week? in 1 year? in 5 years?!  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes


What is the point of telling everyone that you have "invented the airplane", and then tell them that this airplane requires 10+ years of training to master, and that there is no actual training provided along with the airplane?

Anyone can claim that he made a super-AI computer that predicts the future, and the problem of all the subscribers' failed trades is simply because all of them failed to understand this super-sophisticated 72 models.  The problem of failure is always on others, not being able to understand and decode the "array" and "reversals", and never on the models.

If you claim that Armstrong's stuffs are good, then DEMONSTRATE it.  Anybody can talk about the "past" success, and nobody can verify it, because there is no way to distinguish that from fake paper trades.

Since you have traded successfully using such, how about showing your monthly brokerage statements for gains and all the trades that you did.

And show that in this forum that you can do that in real-time too.

By the way, you seemed to be an old timer with Armstrong, and yet you are a newbie on this forum, when all of the previous newbies have disappeared one by one, Strike Eagle, DigiLab, etc.  And yeah, you pick up the trail where they left off in no time.



Huh Can you be concise and to the point. I read it 5 times and still don´t get it.

1) I don´t claim anything;
2) If you were a member of any of the official Martin Armstrong / ECM-Traders slack group you would recognise me by the username as one of the most active members in the groups in last 4 years. I came to here because a new member on Socrates slack group that have attended WEC Rome few weeks ago have mention this group.
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May 22, 2019, 04:43:08 PM
 #5337

Also Strike Eagle, apparently, such a great trader (who "made money" on "every" single trade), who was so familiar with Armstrong's stuffs,

REFUSED to even call out whether the panic cycle in May will be making a HIGH or LOW on a monthly basis on this forum.

The biggest problem that I had following with Armstrong's arrays is that you canNOT even decide whether each "turning point" or "directional change" is a HIGH or LOW, given the past market trajectory, because they were NOT consistently correct.

And then, there is cycle inversion that happens in the last minute, when the actual trades would have been in red for 20+%.

Please NOTE that this "cycle inversion" thing only starts to come out from his blog post-2011 approximately.  There is ZERO information from his timing array that gives you ANY indication on any cycle inversion.  Wouldn't you think that it is super-CRITICAL to know whether the cycle inversion will happen for his timing array, supposedly created for "cycles"?

So I figure that Martin Armstrong must have invented the "cycle inversion", after some of his glaring predictions failures.

And yeah, the GMW, global market watch, supposedly does all the pattern recognition??

I shriek when Armstrong claims that GMW is constantly learning.  Oh, yeah, "New Pattern Emerging"?  Guess what, GMW just found a new pattern that is an "outlier", and that could easily destroy anyone's trades currently in progress.  What are you going to do for your trades, if GMW finds a new pattern at the closing of its time period?  Well, you are screwed, but GMW is RIGHT, because it found a new pattern!!!  Congrats!!

GMW requires the closing prices, and that is looking back.  All of the TA (technical analysis) indicators that look back, all look GREAT on paper, but you cannot trade profitably from it.

Yeah, sure, you can do all of the "what if" analysis, by plugging in your projected closing prices for the TA.  However, all the "what if" analysis are invalid because they are NOT the real closing prices.  As Armstrong says, you let the market tells you.  So isn't that DIRECT contradictions that invalidate any "what if" studies?

Welcome to the master of dual-talk.  If market goes up, Armstrong is right.  If market goes down, Armstrong is right.  If you don't make money, it's your fault of not understanding his tools & models.  If you (happen to) make money (in this particular trade), oh, you just got that right.  Out of 1000 subscribers, I'm sure they all probably trade different ways, and I'm sure that Armstrong can find quite a few percentage of them who just happen to trade in the right direction.  Cherry-picking the winners guarantees winning trades.  How about helping the majority like 100% of the subscribers to be all trading successfully by posting real-time trade recommendations?Huh

Oh, that's a NO-NO.  Not because Armstrong cannot post buy/sell.  But it's because his models are too complicate for human beings or regular traders to understand (on their own).  Or maybe or more likely, because Armstrong & Socrates is UNABLE to post winning trades consistently, and if Armstrong does that, all of the lies about his super-AI computer and "trading success" will be exposed in less than a year.

Why does Armstrong who is supposed to be a great trader, has no guts in posting any real-time trades for simple demonstration?  Oh, he wants you to PAY the subscription, right?  Oh, wait, I thought he is very charitable and concerned about the general public.

Instead, he blogs on BIIB taking a huge drop, POST-event.  In fact, ALL of the "readers' comments" for successful trades are POST-event.

You know what, I or anyone can do very well on paper, POST-event.

Is that how StrikeEagle made money on every single trade?Huh  I doubt ANYONE on Earth who has ever made money on every single trade, except for people who has never traded, or just made a few limited single successful trades.
MA_talk
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May 22, 2019, 05:14:23 PM
 #5338


What is the point of telling everyone that you have "invented the airplane", and then tell them that this airplane requires 10+ years of training to master, and that there is no actual training provided along with the airplane?

Anyone can claim that he made a super-AI computer that predicts the future, and the problem of all the subscribers' failed trades is simply because all of them failed to understand this super-sophisticated 72 models.  The problem of failure is always on others, not being able to understand and decode the "array" and "reversals", and never on the models.

If you claim that Armstrong's stuffs are good, then DEMONSTRATE it.  Anybody can talk about the "past" success, and nobody can verify it, because there is no way to distinguish that from fake paper trades.

Since you have traded successfully using such, how about showing your monthly brokerage statements for gains and all the trades that you did.

And show that in this forum that you can do that in real-time too.

By the way, you seemed to be an old timer with Armstrong, and yet you are a newbie on this forum, when all of the previous newbies have disappeared one by one, Strike Eagle, DigiLab, etc.  And yeah, you pick up the trail where they left off in no time.



Huh Can you be concise and to the point. I read it 5 times and still don´t get it.

1) I don´t claim anything;
2) If you were a member of any of the official Martin Armstrong / ECM-Traders slack group you would recognize me by the username as one of the most active members in the groups in last 4 years. I came to here because a new member on Socrates slack group that have attended WEC Rome few weeks ago have mention this group.

Showing Armstrong's stuffs work is easy.  If you post 10 consecutive winning trades with 5+% gain using his models, then I think that there may be only about 1/(2^10) or 0.1% chance of Armstrong's models being incorrect, given that trading record.

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May 22, 2019, 05:33:42 PM
 #5339

Sorry, I´m not here to discuss my performance or initiate a flame war. I´m not here either to defend Martin Armstrong or express my opinion about the person.

I´m here to discuss some of his work/models, which are valid and COULD give you a edge on the markets. Some of his models, are general math derivations and technical analysis stuff, I´m not interested in discuss it. I see value in discussion only their proprietary models.

GMW for me is trash, I trade numbers, not words/opinion or descriptions of what happening in the market;

ARRAY´s is a very complex way of representing cycles, I look at them before my final trading decision but don´t waste more than 10-20 seconds looking at it.

Reversals are the most valuable part of his work (it´s just my opinion)

ECM models and Pii cycles frequency are valuable at academic level, I see as a big improvement over most of economic models/theory on cycles but think have limited use as trading/investing tool.

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May 22, 2019, 07:17:54 PM
 #5340

I agree with what you wrote about Socrates.
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