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Economy / Speculation / Re: Bubble not yet popped
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on: October 19, 2011, 11:03:42 PM
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I don't think it's worth the effort trying to time the bottom or even getting back into Bitcoin at all. To get back in, I'll need to see some signs of future growth and I just don't see that. The risk/reward is just not there. You can still make money given its a deflationary currency, but I'd rather put my money in higher-growth investments.
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Bubble not yet popped
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on: October 18, 2011, 10:59:40 AM
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Question is: Where is the bottom?
That's what we all want to know. Pre-gawker volumes mean price under $1, but I think that is too low. My bet goes to $1.5/$2. Pre-gawker volume means whatever the price is when the volume retreats to those levels. There is some deflation and a wider bitcoin economy since Gawker so I would expect a higher absolute price as the bottom. Volume levels are still inflated, though. |
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Economy / Speculation / Bubble not yet popped
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on: October 18, 2011, 01:47:48 AM
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Sorry to the optimists, but you're still going to have to wait for the bottom. Bitcoin is going to at least halve before any rebound. Once volume gets back to pre-Gawker levels, I'm going to call a bottom.
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why is the Occupy movement not immediately embracing bitcoin?
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on: October 15, 2011, 02:02:48 PM
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Occupy won't embrace bitcoin because bitcoin is simply another rigged system. They don't want to replace one rigged system with another. It's rigged to benefit the early adopters. Maybe if it were designed so you earn bitcoins by sleeping outside in a park in cold weather rather than wasting electricity to run a fucking computer all day.
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Which graph is more useful and why?
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on: August 29, 2011, 01:03:03 AM
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Here is why you need to use the log chart:
(d/dx) log x = dx / x
Now, what is dx / x. Well that is the change in x over x. If we move from continuous time (derivatives) to a discrete time interpretation, then it's analogous to (x2 - x1) / x1 (ie. percentage change). Log charts show percentage change.
Why percentage change?
Well, would you rather have your investment go from 5 to 10 or from 10 to 20? Obviously they are both the same, you double your money. A log chart would show a change from 5 to 10 to 20 as a straight line which is what you'd want. A linear chart would make it look as if they price had grown exponentially.
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Doomsday bears have their own interests in mind.
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on: August 06, 2011, 04:08:04 PM
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There is really no sense in holding at this point. Even if you want bitcoin to succeed, the smart thing to do would be to unload your bitcoins to take what profit you have left and let the price reach an equilibrium point. Once it gets there, it will be much more stable and could potentially set on a reasonable long term growth trajectory.
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will never reach $20 again
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on: August 06, 2011, 04:04:22 PM
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Well if you are just gambling, do as you please. You don't have to listen to me.
Ummm, aren't all investments a form of gambling? I mean, sure it might be informed gambling, but come on man. if "investing" in a beta stage, open-source project isn't gambling, then I don't know what it is... maybe "donating" to the cause? I mean, at this point, all investors in bitcoin are essentially funding a start-up project, with the hopes that it succeeds and they will get paid off in the end. If you have more money in bitcoin than you are comfortable with losing, then I think you need to re-evaluate your "investment" strategy. Well what I was referring to was your previous post where you indicated someone might be investing an insignificant quantity of money in bitcoin that they don't care if they lose...that's fine. However, most people don't have experience investing in junk bonds and that's basically what bitcoin is. There's a huge difference between that and buying a mutual fund or share of Google. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will never reach $20 again
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on: August 06, 2011, 03:08:51 PM
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OK BTC Economist, so let me try this way. Lets say I'm well off, nice house, cars, business, family. Business makes me $350k per year after tax for the last 15 years, still growing steadily 10% yoy. Price of bitcoin is at $5.00 and I have a buy order of 1k willing to add 1k every $0.50 down to $1.50 where I would stop adding to my position. I would hold forever. If all would fill I have $26k on the line, with practically small chance of ever make it back.
Do you think I would care what your opinion is? Who are you? Are you a top trader at SAC ? You ever work at least at GS ?? Do you own a $10 mill yacht and will fly me out and explain to me why I shouldn't risk this $26k I'm willing to put on the line, because I like this bitcoin idea? Why should I listen to you what I do with less than a month of profits?
Well if you are just gambling, do as you please. You don't have to listen to me. |
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