It works well but if you remove the decimals from the volume i think is better and in any case i suspect that volume data is wrong, compared to the data i use with sierrachart and slush plugin (mtgox data taken from bitcoincharts).

I've found something slightly different using non linear estimation of statistica 7 by statsoft:

using daily data
average
y=-5.1033+x^(.31)

low confidence limit 95%
y=-5.26689+x^(.30358)
up.confidence limit 95%
y=-4.93971+x^(0.31243)

it seems to expand at a slower pace , using the upper confidence limit and 10 years you have 3085$ , using the other formula for low conf limit you have instead 894$
so in 10 years btc should be between 900 and 3000 usd with 95% confidence

Yes, nothing will change in btc, just in usd:
actual btc/usd ratio is 12.70$ per btc

you earned 17.5 btc, or 17.50 times 12.70$ = 222.25$ profit from that trade

in the second case with a drop of 20% at mtgox
you earned 17.5btc, or 17.50 times 10.16$ (12.70-20% drop at mtgox) = 177.8$ profit from that trade

you still have 17.54 btc profit on your account in both cases regardless of BTC vs other currencies

It is not complicated, i'll report, again, one of the trade i did these days:


Account leverage 1:10
Account deposit 100 btc
Allowed to open a position size of 0.01 lots MAX


Opened long position on EUR/USD at 1.28882 on 12 sept 2012
Closed long position on EUR/USD at 1.31143 on 14 sept 2012

1.31143 divided by 1.28882 = 1.01754318 or ~1.75%

1.75% profit on my position times 10 ( the leverage of my account)  =17.54%

17.54% of 100 btc of position size = 17.54 btc profit

account now 117 btc from 100btc

note: position margin size VISUALIZED on mt4 while the TRADE WAS OPEN was 77 because they convert the magin size with actual eur/usd cross ratio (100/1.29=~77) i think due to an internal technical reason of the broker, this doesnt affect your trading, your PROFIT IS COMPUTED USING 100 BTC.

INCREASING THE LEVERAGE wouldn't have changed the sort of that example, it would have simply reduced the margin from 77 down to 7.7 in the case of 100 to 1 leverage and so on..., to increase the margin you have to increase the POSITION SIZE IN LOTS

Hope it is clear:)

Cya

+1

I know kakobrekla personally, that's all, i was glad to test it.

No we are in two. 1:1000 leverage is not so insane if you just scalp. So far i've done 14 trades with them without problems, i reported some impressions and examples in my last blog post.

+1

You shouldn't worry about who manipulates the market or not, remember that price discounts everything, or at least technical analysts believe that the current price fully reflects all information, and so because of that it represents the fair value, and should form the basis for analysis. If you think the market price reflects the sum knowledge of all participants and it's reasonable to agree to what the chart says to you. With bitcoin i've found useful to observe the four hours chart for the short term and of course the daily and weekly chart for mid-long term.

has Anyone tried it yet? it looks interesting

URL
http://bitcoin-debit.com/

Yes it is, i initially thought of a correction to 5.5 before resuming the uptrend, the up volume is now good again , good chance to break 7.2 IMO

You got the point, yes "Anything can fairly accurately predict bitcoin" in the past because it is easy to overfit the market with most trading theories, generally speaking when you have two or more competing trading theories which make exactly the same predictions, the one that is simpler is the better & more profitable, i say again that complicated theories can fit everything on the past with misleading results (and losses) on unseen data.

I'd like to add two words about "elliott wave theory" that is frequently used here on the forum, i have mixed feelings about this theory. On the one hand it can sometimes enable forecasters to do fantastic market forecasts. On the other, it offers too much scope for personal prejudice and bias to influence the wave count, for this reason i don't find it useful for short term day to day trading activities. I think that one should not expect the details of the price action to fit the theory perfectly, instead you should emphasized the importance of looking only at the big picture.
Cheers

Non esagerate, non penso sia imputabile a un hacker il mercato ribassista durato oltre 5 mesi, cmq sia non e' stata una bella figura ma penso sia acqua passata ormai, questo rialzo parte con volumi molto più  alti rispetto ad aprile segno che l'interesse e' cresciuto , spero vivamente che salga più lentamente e con maggiore resilienza questa volta piuttosto di una nuova "sparata" a 30$ in poche settimane.

Ciao Host, come andiamo?
si il trend di lungo ha girato, ho postato un'operazione rialzista qualche giorno fa a 3.22$ dove ho avuto segnale di inversione confermato, i volumi non sono eccezionali ma stiamo a vedere. Direi primo target decente sui 7$

I novelli che non sanno cosa fare, date un'occhiata al mio blog poi per carita' tutti possono sbagliare ma per adesso non e' un mercato difficile da seguire il bitcoin seppur volatile.

You should look also volume, not only price action, especially the net volume or the difference beetween uptick and downtick volume, you could compute it only if you have all the historical Intraday Tick by Tick data of mtgox and the sierrachart trading platform.
Since november low the cumulative difference is +154000 btc, not much; at the time of the all time high at 32$ it was +741000 btc, now there are more bitcoins around compared to 5 months ago, so higher you go more difficult it is with the same amount of net volume. We need more buyers today to reach higher prices again.

4$ it's a strong resistance, but with enough volume activity is possible to go through, you guys should look also volume activity and not only price action. Considering that tick data is free in this market (compared to other markets where you have to pay) it is valuable to do a proper uptick/downtick volume analysis, especially the cumulation of the volume on upticks minus volume on downticks.

It's bullish, after five months (since june top) the weekly moving average i use is turning up,we need to go above 4$ to confirm a long term up move.

i received an email warning me that my account has been closed at mtgox


"
Dear Mt.Gox user,

Your account will be blocked for violating the rules of exchange.
Details:https://www.mgtox.com/users/blocked

Thanks,
The Mt.Gox team
"

the url point at http://www.mtgvx.tk/users/blocked

the url is a fake, but the homepage is nearly identical to MtGox official homepage.
Be careful to dont login at that fake url.
Cya

Me too, i like solidcoin, i like the fact that it's possible to encrypt the wallet, it's unaccetable that with the bitcoin client is still not yet possible.

yes sorry, but diff was 16000 and 0.025btc for 1sc