Thanks all!

At this moment, I'll do nothing (just leave the funds in my account). Knowing that I got my initial investment out gives me peace of mind.

I'll see what the Bitcoin price is doing, and then decide whether I want to "dollar cost average" 50% of my investment again, or want to use it in another way.

Hi all,

In the past weeks, I have sold some BTC, and I have my initial investment (about $5000) out. Which means that everything I have in BTC now (about $8000) is "free". That is fine, but I am thinking about what to do with the money I took out:

• Put it in a less volatile investment, as a long term safeguard
• Reinvest it in BTC as soon as the price drops (it eventually will, but when?)

In the first case, I have secured my initial investment in the long term, so I won't need to worry about it, but it also won't make much more for me.

In the second case, the potential for gains is much higher, but I still risk losing my initial investment. I don't need the money now, but I would feel sorry about it.

I plan on keeping what I have left in BTC for the long term. My question is purely about the initial investment that I took out again.

What's your opinion? Thanks!

For those who hold their coins in the long term (my plan as well), doesn't it make sense to sell them at the (potential) top after the halving, and re-buy them after the (inevitable) dip after the hype settled down?

Well, that was to be expected. But he could at least have waited until after the halving.

Nobody believed him anyway, but it could have fueled the hype.

First of all; there is so much publicity about the upcoming halving indeed that I can hardly believe it not being priced in already. I don't expect a giant price hike this year ( but I hope I am wrong).

What I do is to keep most of my BTC safe in my own wallet for now, while I use a small part for swing trading. On the one hand, for trying to accumulate more without investing additional €€ but mostly because I want to learn. It's the same I do with my ETH and LTC amounts, only I use a larger percentage for "trade practice" because most of my invested money is in BTC anyway.

I won't become a professional trader this way, but it allows me to learn, and hopefully I make some profit on the way too.

If it is for the long term? I would put 60% in the bank, 35% in index funds, and 15% in crypto. The 60% mainly because I want to have a buffer for unexpected circumstances.

Would people flee into crypto currencies (at least the major ones) as a safe haven? Or get out of them, because they would expect prices to fall when the economy slows down? I could imagine that people move more to savings accounts, despite the 0% interest.

I'm struggling with the same ... my brain says, initial investment plus 25% is already stretching it (since I started DCA'ing last summer, I am not at break even point yet), but of course there's the little voice that says "what if it would rise much more?".

Is selling in batches (e.g. 50% of the profit, each time you have earned 10%) a good advice? Or is that too conservative in the long term?

If it is B&W, you could develop it yourself indeed ... you might have found a new hobby   (I wouldn't do it with C41 process color film though).

But seriously, I would not take any risks. Does your camera have the option to double expose? Then you might want to try that for that frame (but analog film has quite some tolerance for over exposure). The safest option indeed is change the seed (if possible) or move the funds to another wallet. Even if your film goes into an automated process, there is usually a manual step afterwards (quality control), so you still run a risk.

My feeling as well ... the increase in 2020 is probably modest, but I expect / hope that we reach a new ATH in 2021 or 2022.

Main reason; the cycles are getting more spread out, and the halving is probably more anticipated now than the last time (more energy efficient miners, and so on). So I don't expect any fireworks starting before Q3 / Q4 2020.

I'd love to be wrong as well though, of course!

A big issue, I think, is that people all over the world are exposed to the internet (and everything that comes with it) at such speed that they cannot grasp it. Isn't it understandable that they are gullible? Yesterday they could not even talk to people 100 miles away, and suddenly people all over the world promise them free money.

I don't have a solution, and they will have to go through a hard learning phase, but I think I understand why people fall for the tricks of scammers. It happens here (northern europe) as well with older people who are easily overwhelmed. Not saying that all older people are like that(!) but they are easier victims than those who grew up with new technology.

Indeed! All the people who complain about a bear market seem to forget that we made about 100% last year! If that's a bear market in crypto, then I wonder how we'd call it if BTC only appreciates 20% this year 😉 If my stocks did that this year, I would be a happy man!

Looks like many beginners expect a continuous bull run, instead of a YoY climb (or decline, also possible of course).

One thing I don’t understand in the whole discussion; if RSA or ECC are compromised in the future, we can upgrade existing systems of course (and we’ll have to ... whole PKI will come tumbling down), but won’t this make dormant wallets vulnerable? How are we going to prevent someone stealing the funds from there? Otherwise that will cause a huge drop in the value of Bitcoin. We can’t put a wrapper or something around those wallets, right?

I am a tech guy, not an economist, so not sure if my reasoning makes sense!

I think some people from developing countries are in this group. Maybe they see the online world still like we looked at it 10 years ago, but then with all the threats of today.

What if you are poor, and suddenly people promise you free money online? Wouldn't you be tempted to try that? Especially if you are uneducated about online dangers? Or if English is your third language, and you have limited understanding only?

Here crypto currencies are definitely taxed. The exchange I am using even sends you a yearly report of your assets, to use for your tax filings. And if they can send it to you, they can also give it to the tax authorities on request.

I don't know about all EU countries, but it looks to me like they are accepting crypto currency, and taxing them as they do other assets (like gold, or stocks).

Look at where the price was 12 months ago, and where we are now. Halving may already be priced in. Personally, looking at the long term trend, I don't expect a new ATH next year yet.

Since I have a long term target, I don't care if we reach a new top in 2021 or in 2023 ... as long as we get there

I think the bandwith for next year can easily be between $5K and 10K (maybe a bit more). The halving does not come as a surprise to anyone, so it may not cause a huge price jump next year, and looking at the wave patterns (and the long term trend), between 5 and 10K looks logical.