There are 6 million coins out there and only 12,000 are needed to wipe out whatever money's in the system.
I saw a sell order for 17,000 earlier today.
7 million, the number of BTC on the bid side looks like this: 28710 bitcoins to reach 1 dollar. Having said that, it looked worse a couple of hours ago. |
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A wise word to investors: don't go throwing good money after bad.
Always good advice, but I believe your premise is wrong. Bitcoins are valued by the demand side, NOT the supply side. I can mine my own block chain for pennies, and yet those coins are likely worth even less. What matters is the current cost to mint one but more importantly the demand for coins. If someone wants bit coins their *current* choice is to mine or buy. They can't get into a time machine and mine with a CPU back in 2009. So, if the market cost is under power cost it definitely makes sense to buy, pegging price to power cost. What you're talking about is saturating the demand with existing coins. I admit, that could happen. But if an early adopter didn't cash out at $10 to buy more hardware to recoup their investment they are probably not going to do so at $3. In other words, IMO the lower the price goes the lower the odds of those 5+ million hoarded BTC hitting the market. OTOH, all early adopters are kicking themselves for not having sold yet, so there is definitely a rock solid resistance level at several previous highs. Including as low as $11. You are right to some degree, my trading experience from the "real world" of finance tells me that the two words greed and fear are always repeated. Even if the ones that hoarded millions together (early early adopters) didn't sell when we were 10 dollars +, it doesn't automatically mean that they wont sell at 5 dollars. That's because the "fear" part comes in and they get irrational. If that happens we could even see prices go as low as 2-3 dollars, but it's a big IF. |
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Another chance at selling at high 8 dollar numbers...
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According to the order depth of clarkmoody it only takes 15602 BTC (sold at the market right now) to reach 1,16 dollars. I can see it if I use 1000 rows.
Can someone confirm this?
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The support level is broken, under 8,70 now.
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I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess that it won't hold... +1 on that |
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Average cost is around $3.50 per coin, maybe more $3.00, but we can throw in extra 20% and agree on $3.50. If anyone disagrees please post your exact math for me.
$7.50 to create one bitcoin worth $9.50 here. I won't post the maths, as I've posted it here many times before. People paying 10c/kwh are the only ones capable of producing a bitcoin for $3.50. Some people can do that, a lot can't. That's the hole point, miners that can't mine with cheap electricity shouldn't, that's EASY EASY EASY (sorry for that I don't get why you guys don't get it) maths and economics. If someone else can produce something else much cheaper then you, lets say bitcoins (this works with pretty much anything), then you as a producer of bitcoins should say to your self, wait know, why should I produce bitcoins when that guy in Russia is producing it much cheaper AND are willing to sell it to the market. Then you shouldn't be a miner, you should be a SMART direct buyer at the exchanges, you should know what he pays to produce it, and you should then buy it with a small margin, that is the real world. Bitcoins, because it's so new didn't for a while work according to economic laws, but it will, and we are seeing it right now. |
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The way I see it is this: There is not enough real market activity to justify the current price of bitcoins. I am talking about commerce/trade, not daytrading, derivatives and other nonsense. Artificial scarcity has been created by hoarders and speculators but is in a downcycle that will continue with selloff. This volatility will continue in up and down cycles until the value of bitcoins is supported by the demand based on trade of actual goods. This real value at the moment is low due to the inherent mistrust built into the system. People are generally too afraid to trade because of the potential fraud.
I'm not predicting the death of bitcoins, only the eventual adjustment down to a reasonable exchange which is prabably around the 1$ level. But I am just guessing.
2c
You just don't know what you're talking about do you? It takes most miners $8-9 dollars just to MAKE these coins. And we are going to give them up to you for $1? You don't know what you are talking about, I don't pay for electricity for my mining. In the end, in about a years time most miners will have a very low electric cost or none as me. And the ROI shouldn't be just a couple of months (that is crazy returns get it), it should be more. Giving all the information I have given in other treads, this gives a fair value that is much lower than today. Where that is is exactly is very hard to say, but it is fair assumption that we have at least a couple of dollars on the downside left and my first post with my price target of 5-6 dollars looks as a good first step. Also another thing, the one dollar target someone here said is possible is very very unlikely, it's to much of a interest in the Bitcoin economy. That would set the whole value of Bitcoins at around 7 million dollars today. That is a very low number. |
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Bitcoinstars will have wagering on daily bitcoin prices available when we open up shop so you can wager for the price to drop. We will have a API EOM also.
Are you talking about options with strikes and expiration months? Hi.We will have expirations every day multiple times a day. There will be many choices hourly where you can make or take offers. For example we will create a bitcoin Last Price at MTGOX of 10.30 ending at 9:00PM Eastern Time. You can choose the over or under of the 10.30 option and the price your willing to pay or you can accept the price someone is offering. Feel free to see the market here for example. http://bitcoinstars.com/props.php?leagueid=1When will this be up? Let me give you one more thing you could have. Options trading, it will be great. Don't make the misstake and have many strikes. For example, if the price at Mt.Gox is 10 dollars, have normal range of the strikes, 10 dollars, 11, 12, 13 ,14, 15, and 20 dollars, on the down side, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5 dollars. The 20 dollar strike will work as a synthetic shorts selling Bitcoin, because its heavily "in the money", the other are giving the market players good chance to make a more speculative bet. If the bitcoin price the month after is 11 dollars, you could then also open an extra strike price at 16 dollars. Just hold the 50 % plus minus strikes every month it will work out fine. Have strikes in total of 3 months in a row. Have your expiration date as real options for indices and stocks (in US), the third friday in the month, and the time that US options expire, last 24 hours should be the weighted average to decide the end price. Keep the fees really low, don't forget that. Mt.Gox is still taking a lot in fees, they take 0,30 %, I pay 0,025 % with my stock broker. Put also a clock on your site, and a clock that shows how many minutes and hours there is left before the bet ends. Hi thanks for the feedback. We will open when our Cloudflare SSL is activated.We created this website for the bitcoin community so if you would like to have monthly options as well as hourly choices we will get that added for you. We will create a poll in the speculation forum in the future and ask the community how many strikes they would like in the Monthly Option Market. We will also have a running feedback thread in the future because we want to add as much as we can of what the community wants.This website concept was with the idea to bring value to the community as a whole.The fee will be monitored and reviewed as often as possible. We will look to trim any fee any chance we get. The marketplace is only the beginning of the site as we will be giving the front page a overhall that will look impressive sometime in the September-October range. End of year we will look to add non-casino games (air hockey for example) where you can play other users for bitcoins. It all sounds really good. And I wish you all the best with the project, keep the bitcoin community updated. |
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Bitcoinstars will have wagering on daily bitcoin prices available when we open up shop so you can wager for the price to drop. We will have a API EOM also.
Are you talking about options with strikes and expiration months? Hi.We will have expirations every day multiple times a day. There will be many choices hourly where you can make or take offers. For example we will create a bitcoin Last Price at MTGOX of 10.30 ending at 9:00PM Eastern Time. You can choose the over or under of the 10.30 option and the price your willing to pay or you can accept the price someone is offering. Feel free to see the market here for example. http://bitcoinstars.com/props.php?leagueid=1When will this be up? Let me give you one more thing you could have. Options trading, it will be great. Don't make the misstake and have many strikes. For example, if the price at Mt.Gox is 10 dollars, have normal range of the strikes, 10 dollars, 11, 12, 13 ,14, 15, and 20 dollars, on the down side, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5 dollars. The 20 dollar strike will work as a synthetic shorts selling Bitcoin, because its heavily "in the money", the other are giving the market players good chance to make a more speculative bet. If the bitcoin price the month after is 11 dollars, you could then also open an extra strike price at 16 dollars. Just hold the 50 % plus minus strikes every month it will work out fine. Have strikes in total of 3 months in a row. Have your expiration date as real options for indices and stocks (in US), the third friday in the month, and the time that US options expire, last 24 hours should be the weighted average to decide the end price. Keep the fees really low, don't forget that. Mt.Gox is still taking a lot in fees, they take 0,30 %, I pay 0,025 % with my stock broker. Put also a clock on your site, and a clock that shows how many minutes and hours there is left before the bet ends. |
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I don't quite understand why people are still buying mining hardware. Currently it will take about a minimum of 4 months to pay off one card.
I picked up 5 5850's for 145 each and you cant tell me that is not a bargain. I have tested each and the average between them is about 390 megahash. That's .208 a day for this difficulty. I recognize that the difficulty will increase but I'm going to stick with this for simplicity sake. Now I'm not a dumb ass and I am not selling at the listed price of around 11 dollars. I agree selling at 11 dollars would take a long time to get your roi. I plan to hoard until the price goes up to between 15-20 dollars. So in 30 days I'll have 6.24 bitcoins which is $93 dollars at 15 a btc or $124 @ 20 a btc. If you take the cost of electricity the card costs $7.2 a month (I pay 6.7c a kwh) That means $86 or 117 Also a months time is only two difficulty increases so my profits wont get drastically lower. Since in a months time the cards will be more then half paid for it still is 100% worth it. You don't now economics. Most miners will sell at 11 dollars (still a very good profit) and you will be stuck with them when it goes to 10 then 9, 8, 7 etc. |
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For example:
Mt.Gox gets a request of a withdrawal of 100 bitcoins -> Mt.Gox sends a SMS with a unique code -> real account holder log in and writes it in -> bitcoins are released to the new address
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Because we know that all Bitcoin transactions are not reversible, and that we know that many peoble have large amounts of USD money and Bitcoins at the exchanges. I think that as a customer, if I want to have a safety net where the exchange calls me up or even easier SMS me that we have gotten a order to withdraw, then I as a customer can just confirm this.
The mobile phone number shouldn't be possible to change easily, that way we know that the real account holder will get a notice. At the same time Mt.Gox / exchange waits 12 hours or so to get a confirmation from the real account holder. If someone has hacked the account, then they will not be able to withdraw the money.
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I likes my economies how I likes my ice cream, double dipped!
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And the USD is just getting stronger and stronger, everyone is flying to safety, and according to all financial media (Bloomberg, CNBC etc) right now that is, you wont believe it, US treasury bonds and USD.
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Nordic indices:
OMX Nordic PI 155,42 -4,04 09:03:56
OMX Nordic 40 821,04 -4,02 09:04:06
VINX30 545,39 -3,90 09:04:05
OMX Stockholm 30 907,54 -3,41 09:04:06
OMX Stockholm PI 284,83 -3,96 09:03:26
OMX Helsinki 25 1808,98 -4,07 09:04:06
OMX Copenhagen 20 369,31 -5,18 09:04:05
OSEBX Oslo 362,49 -3,43 09:04:06
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The polish exchange Bitomat and have a look at mybitcoin.com
Bitomat lost their wallet because of how the Amazon ECC works. Mybitcoin probably wasn't hacked. As it stands, I believe the current guess is that the service was a scam from the start with the owner selling off bitcoins as they came in. Neither one was hacked, and two sites don't mean "every site" even if both had been hacked. Forget the word hack, that isn't the main point, the main point is that the owners try to steal the coins and funds and blame it on ridiculous things. |
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