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I'm not sure at what point the community collectively decided that April'13 was just a roadbump on the way to November '13, but at the time it was very much viewed as two separate runups, and the '14-15 bear market went far below the april 13 ATH. The market has slowed down a LOT since then, plus we have big money investors who seem to be truncating the blowoff tops. If, as I suspect, the current market is a macro slow motion version of 2012-14, the bottom will be close to 10k, and we'll have multiple years of sideways and shakeouts before there's another strong bull. We may see a false hope bounce similar to november 2014 before the bottom actually happens.
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Most people who think it "won't ever touch $15k again" haven't been around since the early days. Every bull run so far has been followed by a bear market decline of a minimum of 80%
Don't be over-confident. What goes up must come down.
Sure, but from where?Bitcoin just crossed the 2017 ATH, and is only 2x above it. For it to crash into a bear market now would be totally unprecedented. We could go an order of magnitude higher first. So yeah, an 80% drop from $300K? Definitely possible! But that gets you $60K, not $15K.  Another data point working against you: no Bitcoin bear market has ever broken below the prior cycle's ATH. For that reason, sub-$20K is probably off the table. The late '13 pump 'only' reached 4x the previous ATH of $260. And then it famously crashed well below it. Scaling up to take account of the bigger, slower, deeper market we have now it seems to me totally plausible that the bubble could burst before 100k. Really the whole shape of the market since 2016 is strikingly similar to a macro version of 2012-13, with '17 being similar to the April 13 peak and this one shaping up to be like a slow motion nov '13. Conditions and sentiment are quite different now to 2017, the newbies are more optimistic than the old lot and you can tell this just by looking at the way the market has ratcheted up since early 2019. Very different to the uncertainty and doom of 14/15 and even '16. Just like late 2013 vs the people who felt the pain of the 2011 crash, people feel invincible. Put another way, if 2017 was a big elliot wave III, this is the V, just like april 13 was the iii and november was the v. Never say never but I think it may be unwise to get married to the idea of a 2017 rerun. We're already just as vertical as the steepest parts of 2017. |
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However, the internal count is unclear to me right now. I have some slight variations in mind. Where xxxx123abcxxxx thinks we're in a [ iii ], I wonder if we're really in a [ i ]. This would suggest a major top anywhere between here and maybe $22K. I say that partly because of structure and proportion, and partly because of psychological resistance at the 2017 ATH. Anything +/- 10% of the 2017 ATH would be typical. Never can tell if it'll overshoot or undershoot. After that, one would anticipate a (likely) sharp Wave [ ii ]. That may be where we see a classic 30-40% Bitcoin bull market decline, followed by acceleration of the bull trend. Probably the dip of a lifetime.
Interested to see that count, as I'm not sure how we can be in anything other than some kind of 3 wave (iii of I or [ iii ] of [ I ] etc) if we believe we're in a bull that started just after it hit 3k in Dec '18. I see only one major correction (jun 19 to march 20) and therefore no room for a big impulsive I wave nearing completion at 20-22k? For me it's either xxxx123bcxxxx's count if we're bullish (currently seems likely), or a king-of-all-fakeouts B wave in a giant nightmare multi year flat ABC, which would be invalidated upon breaching the ATH. The B wave looks possible because the formation since 3k could still be interpreted as a zig zag. |
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Simply because the WHALES take the profits whenever there's a 5 to 10 percent growth. The bottom line is Swing trading and Day trading is real and the HODL method is just what it is...
I really can't believe how many times over the past few years I've seen people project the current market conditions forward indefinitely because they can't think beyond the now. Really interesting example of limited human thinking I'd say! |
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Begone imposter, the real Kwuk posts a lot of drivel but never so braindead and tedious as this muck.
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You cant fight it. Just try to profit from it.
I might as well buy any coin under a dollar without doing any research at this point. Haha I know some people like this, try and explain about number of coins, market caps and distribution and you get a blank stare, then they continue going on abou how whatever coin is a great buy purely because of the nominal price. Pure dumb money, the market giveth to the lucky ones, but eventually it shall taketh away... |
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tried to read charts using some of the indicators i used to trade forex. with some, like the basic stochastic oscillator and william's range i'm able to tell which direction price will go but some don't really work. i go to tradeblock and use some of the indicators there to tell price of some of the major cryptos. which indicators do you use which you think is best to predict price movement?
There is no true price indicator for bitcoin because it's not really backed by anything. People try to put their analysis up based off log charts, but even then, you're not going to be able to ever constantly call what the bitcoin price will be. The best indicators a crypto trader has is the news. Not analysis news, but technological advancement, investor news, just anything that discusses if people will be putting their money into the coin. If you find this, you'll see that the price rises. An example is the Peter Thiel news which I believe boosted the price. Good luck with trading on news when the market turns. News seems to have very little real impact on the general trend which is where the real money is made. What news predicated the turn from bear to bull in 2015, can you point to any concrete event? Many people who sold at $300 would love to know I'm sure LOL. I'm not sure you have any understanding of what indicators are if you think being 'backed' or not has anything to do with their efficacy, or think that any reasonable trader expects to 'constantly call what the bitcoin price will be'. |
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Totally agreed OP, I always found typing walls of text was key to making consistent profits, also the fewer paragraphs you use the more successful your trades will be!
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It is probably best to not call the end of a possible triangle just yet. Seems we still need more time to reset longer term indicators.
Im not calling it yet, I said it would become the primary count if 16000 is broken. It's possible that we are in a bearish wave B triangle too. Wave B is my instinct now. There's reluctance at just over 15k and some bearish divergences on the RSI, and lots of three waves bouncing back and forth. If so, the completed triangle could be followed by Masterluc's dip to 8-10k some time this month. |
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I don't even want to know how filthy rich a few have become with this and how millions have lost their savings! Hilarious!
I don't really care to know either, but my burning question is did you manage to make any money this time dearest Kwukky? |
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This is when faiiiiling will come back to haunt us  Repent and cut your loose!!!  |
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Yes thats what is freaking me out, it doesn't make any sense. A parabolic run up like this has *always* ended with a significant correction in the past, followed by a longer retrace and then a new bottom higher than the previous ATH, to springboard off.
Paradigm shift. Bitcoin is not a stock, it is a revolution. That's a nice thought, but forgive me my scepticism when all the posts like this come from guys with join dates post 2015. The market will change as it grows but I do not see any reason for step changes. |
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I really think you guys just aren't seeing that we've been having the crashes same as they always came in years past, but they are just recovering much quicker than they used to because Bitcoin is getting mainstream adoption, which means millions of people are coming in with new money, whereas in crashes from years ago when it crashed there wasn't much new money to come in to prop it back up so it would take maybe half a year to recover from a crash. We already saw this speeding up in the Spring when the big crash only lasted a month and a half. We saw it again in September when the crash lasted also maybe a month and a half. Ever since futures were announced there has been mass hype this past month and a half so we've even had two crashes that just looked more like quick corrections in november because the money coming into bitcoin is unprecedented so these crashes (no different then in years past) are now on the timescale of days or weeks instead of ~half a year (MtGox crash was obviously a whole different beast and tied to one specific traumatic event for the bitcoin community so the length of that crash is of no relevance).
Oh you sweet summer child... |
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If the .govs don't murder crypto in the crib or figure out how to shackle it (unlikely as there are many motivated, highly intelligent people who will simply develop their way around such measures, and the market will follow them), they will wither and start to die off. This may take a long time. The human race on the other hand will ascend new heights.
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I don't know about the medium term where, as you say, goverments may try to cut the throat of crypto by blocking domains and attempting to attack/control the infrastructure/miners, in the long term they get starved out by inability to control the money supply.
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Daily non exchange transaction volume is about $0.3 billion, market cap is about $20 billion, so I guess you could argue the proportion of money in circulation is very low compared to the total that exists. Despite the growth in bitcoin, it's hard to deny the price is still massively speculative. Mining costs per coin can and do adapt to the size of the market so that isn't a solid support at all.
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But why are those periodic with nearly exact time intervals?
They aren't, the gap decreased by about 2 months or about 25%... |
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How many of you are actually buying? Look at how weak volume has been on non-Chinese exchanges during the entire run up. We need lots of buyers to push far past the old ATH and my guess is most of us aren't buying much because we already have coins from lower prices. Which means we need an influx of new bagholders money in order to keep the price climbing where the earlier adopters have stopped buying and started selling. To me there doesn't seem to be quite enough euphoria plus we are still waiting for the block size issue to be solved definitively - how are these millions of new users going to use their coins if we immediately max out the transaction limit, something we are already very close to? I suppose the sudden pressure might expedite a fix of course...
So while a continued bull run shouldn't be ruled out, seems to me that most of the people saying moon do so mostly because they want it.
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I trade a lot before but not such big amounts. For me 20k are a lot of money.
Usually just like hobby start with 50 euros and in a month easily 200-300. Never lost. But my target was low everytime
I try 75% back at least.
If you were able to quadruple your money reliably in a month and 'never lost' then you'd be a millionaire in less than a year, and 20k would be chump change. Time to stop exaggerating your prowess, delusion is your enemy in this game. |
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