Yet another analyst

[exstasie]

For once, I agree with Tom Lee.

This is a crucial spot. The S&P 500 is still hovering just above the 50-day MA and daily lower BB, and threatening to break below them:



Holding below those levels (for the first time since the April recovery) is going to trigger a big mid-term correction. That will hit BTC hard. The low 3,000s for the S&P 500 and low $9,000s for BTC are obvious support zones but I'm not sure that would be the end of it.

Stock market bulls held the line at the 50-day MA. Very nice recovery:



As expected, that meant a recovery for BTC too. The bearish triangle mentioned a couple posts ago was clearly invalidated. Touching $10,950 doesn't exactly get us out of the woods though. I still have a nagging suspicion there will be another leg down in stocks, and as we speak the S&P500 is hovering below its 20-day MA, pretty typical resistance level. Until BTC is trading back above $11,200 or so in its old trading range (trapping the last 2 weeks worth of bears) I would be prepared for this to be a bull trap.

[exstasie]

As expected, that meant a recovery for BTC too. The bearish triangle mentioned a couple posts ago was clearly invalidated. Touching $10,950 doesn't exactly get us out of the woods though. I still have a nagging suspicion there will be another leg down in stocks, and as we speak the S&P500 is hovering below its 20-day MA, pretty typical resistance level. Until BTC is trading back above $11,200 or so in its old trading range (trapping the last 2 weeks worth of bears) I would be prepared for this to be a bull trap.

Bull trap it is!

Stock market bears finally made their move. Closed below the 50-day MA and now breaking below the lower daily BB:



Time for the S&P 500 to test 3,000? As for BTC, it's still inside the daily bands but that's a pretty obvious lower high failure at the $11,200 resistance:



In the mid term, I would be prepared for a run to the low $9,000s and perhaps a wick lower. A stop run to the 0.5 Fib is possible. It's really easy to underestimate both upside and downside in BTC.

[exstasie]

Here is an update on our multi-year triangle:



Wave E should be a zig zag (orange) or contracting triangle (green).

Nice bullish spring off the $10,135 low a few days ago. If the market can get back in the $11,200+ range and hold for a while, then I would lean towards the green sideways scenario.

[El duderino_]

Hmmm the Dude's always in favor for the green scenarios

[JayJuanGee]

Hmmm the Dude's always in favor for the green scenarios

hahahaha

You cannot wish the BTC price direction (well maybe you can? as an exception to the general rule... hahahahaha). 

Instead, there would be an acknowledgement of where we have been and where we might be likely to go.

The sentiment has been pretty negative in the past 24 hours or so, but still we have not gotten back down to the $10,138 low from 10 days ago.  Bullish?  I wonder.

Sometimes we just have consolidation in a range, and no one really knows for sure which way the price is going to break (when it does), and at some point, the margin trading in stacking up on each side to help to cause some fuel for the opposite direction, but then now we have some potential disabling of Bitmex which may well affect some of the BTC price motivating dynamics in terms of price - including likely lesser profits from betting down (even though surely there are other financial "down-betting" vehicles, besides Bitmex, out there too).

One funny thing that sometimes happens would be a kind of disruption and taking advantage of some kind of strange event (such as the Bitmex disabling situation) that causes the market to react in the opposite direction... we saw that with silk road in late 2013 and we saw that with chinese freezing of their exchanges in late 2016.

Remember also the bitfinex "hackening" situation in August 2016... which may be more timely parallel in BTC's 4-year cycle (to the extent that such cycle exists).  That Bitfinex situation took a few months to resolve.. or at least to bring some clarity back to the BTC market.

[exstasie]

If this weekly candle closes up here, we can probably close the book on this triangle:



If it wicks back inside the range, it's possible we're still in an irregular Wave E, like so:

Well, there is always the possibility this spike above $12.5K is a B wave in an expanding flat, represented by the middle diagram:

As noted there:

Once the June 2019 highs (the $13,800s) are broken, we can officially rule this scenario out.

It's technically also possible we're still in Wave D, but that seems unlikely based on the internal wave count. I'll update things next week when things are more clear.

Masterluc posted a "short" position on Tradingview yesterday, which I think is worth sharing:

Update from Masterluc: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/HNutyDX7-Short-term-resistance/

Bitcoin approaches short term strong resistance: upper trend line and upper BB border. I completely not sure it can beat them both from 1st try on weekly candle.

He's anticipating a sharp pullback off the weekly upper BB, down to the lower bound of his channel, which is currently in the $10.5K area and rising:

The Fear and Greed Index is in the 70s, approaching "extreme greed" but the market remains below yearly resistance. Given the hyper bullish sentiment in crypto, equities, commodities and the hyper bearish sentiment on the USD, and as long as BTC remains below the June 2019 high, I could definitely see that sharp pullback happening that Masterluc is talking about. Equities are still teetering at the lower end of their trading ranges and threatening to dip hard. If they do, I expect BTC will follow. That would keep our triangle scenario intact.

[JL0]

If this weekly candle closes up here, we can probably close the book on this triangle:



If it wicks back inside the range, it's possible we're still in an irregular Wave E, like so:

Well, there is always the possibility this spike above $12.5K is a B wave in an expanding flat, represented by the middle diagram:

As noted there:

Once the June 2019 highs (the $13,800s) are broken, we can officially rule this scenario out.

It's technically also possible we're still in Wave D, but that seems unlikely based on the internal wave count. I'll update things next week when things are more clear.

Masterluc posted a "short" position on Tradingview yesterday, which I think is worth sharing:

Update from Masterluc: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/HNutyDX7-Short-term-resistance/

Bitcoin approaches short term strong resistance: upper trend line and upper BB border. I completely not sure it can beat them both from 1st try on weekly candle.

He's anticipating a sharp pullback off the weekly upper BB, down to the lower bound of his channel, which is currently in the $10.5K area and rising:

The Fear and Greed Index is in the 70s, approaching "extreme greed" but the market remains below yearly resistance. Given the hyper bullish sentiment in crypto, equities, commodities and the hyper bearish sentiment on the USD, and as long as BTC remains below the June 2019 high, I could definitely see that sharp pullback happening that Masterluc is talking about. Equities are still teetering at the lower end of their trading ranges and threatening to dip hard. If they do, I expect BTC will follow. That would keep our triangle scenario intact.

And there is bearish divergence on 1D, 3D, and weekly RSI. I think this would be a good and healthy pullback

[exstasie]

And there is bearish divergence on 1D, 3D, and weekly RSI. I think this would be a good and healthy pullback

Potential bearish divergence. Until we see a dump to confirm, those divergences are still just possibilities.

I do see potential MACD and RSI divergence on the 3-day and weekly charts. Bears need to come in relatively soon though for that 3-day divergence to hold. The current daily doji (hasn't printed yet) could be a reversal candle too, but we have no confirmation yet.

We're only 3 hours from the weekly close and for now, it's still a big fat green dildo. That doesn't exactly bode well for the bear case. If sellers wanted to try and paint the chart bearish, the time to do it is now.

Let's see how the daily and weekly candles close in a few hours.

[exstasie]

Stocks are looking drippy:



Still clinging to the BB basis for now but I'll be interested to see how today and tomorrow's candles print. BTC dipped alongside below $12,800 but nothing major yet. Time to pay attention though.....

[JL0]

@exstasie

What you think about David's Idea? David and Masterluc's are very different.

[exstasie]

@exstasie

What you think about David's Idea? David and Masterluc's are very different.

An example of where great minds don't necessarily think alike.

I'm very ambivalent. On one hand, BTC's weekly chart looks incredibly strong and intent on continued advancement. On the other hand, it's sensible to give pause because we are at yearly resistance (the June 2019 highs) and the weekly upper BB, and the market has not convincingly broken above either one.

When the S&P 500 dipped 3.5% yesterday, BTC dipped 7%. So this is something we need to keep an eye on as well. The S&P 500 just failed into its September range and triggered a bearish BB squeeze on the daily chart. It's very possible this could decline further and drag BTC down with it, which would tip things in favor of Masterluc's scenario.

If you look back to late June and early July 2019, you'll see it can unfortunately take 2-3 weeks for a weekly reversal (or lack thereof) to become obvious.

[dragonvsandroid]

When profit?

[exstasie]

When profit?

The upside is fairly unpredictable in a nested count like this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg55526746#msg55526746

And I do agree with xxxx123abcxxxx in general:

Can you explain it please ? What do you mean by that or what do you want to tell us?

It's an ultra bullish EW count. At a bird's eye view, it puts us in Historic Wave 5, same as Masterluc's count.

At the lower degree, he shows a nested wave count, indicated by the "(1)-(2), 1-2, (i)-(ii)" progression. Not only are Wave 3s already very powerful, but this indicates an extended Wave (3) with an expectation of further sub-dividing waves. If the count is correct, then this will result in an even more powerful upside move. We're talking about another bubble.

However, the internal count is unclear to me right now. I have some slight variations in mind. Where xxxx123abcxxxx thinks we're in a [ iii ], I wonder if we're really in a [ i ]. This would suggest a major top anywhere between here and maybe $22K. I say that partly because of structure and proportion, and partly because of psychological resistance at the 2017 ATH. Anything +/- 10% of the 2017 ATH would be typical. Never can tell if it'll overshoot or undershoot. After that, one would anticipate a (likely) sharp Wave [ ii ]. That may be where we see a classic 30-40% Bitcoin bull market decline, followed by acceleration of the bull trend. Probably the dip of a lifetime.

[Ektra]

However, the internal count is unclear to me right now. I have some slight variations in mind. Where xxxx123abcxxxx thinks we're in a [ iii ], I wonder if we're really in a [ i ]. This would suggest a major top anywhere between here and maybe $22K. I say that partly because of structure and proportion, and partly because of psychological resistance at the 2017 ATH. Anything +/- 10% of the 2017 ATH would be typical. Never can tell if it'll overshoot or undershoot. After that, one would anticipate a (likely) sharp Wave [ ii ]. That may be where we see a classic 30-40% Bitcoin bull market decline, followed by acceleration of the bull trend. Probably the dip of a lifetime.

Interested to see that count, as I'm not sure how we can be in anything other than some kind of 3 wave (iii of I or [ iii ] of [ I ] etc) if we believe we're in a bull that started just after it hit 3k in Dec '18. I see only one major correction (jun 19 to march 20) and therefore no room for a big impulsive I wave nearing completion at 20-22k?

For me it's either xxxx123bcxxxx's count if we're bullish (currently seems likely), or a king-of-all-fakeouts B wave in a giant nightmare multi year flat ABC, which would be invalidated upon breaching the ATH. The B wave looks possible because the formation since 3k could still be interpreted as a zig zag.

[exstasie]

However, the internal count is unclear to me right now. I have some slight variations in mind. Where xxxx123abcxxxx thinks we're in a [ iii ], I wonder if we're really in a [ i ]. This would suggest a major top anywhere between here and maybe $22K. I say that partly because of structure and proportion, and partly because of psychological resistance at the 2017 ATH. Anything +/- 10% of the 2017 ATH would be typical. Never can tell if it'll overshoot or undershoot. After that, one would anticipate a (likely) sharp Wave [ ii ]. That may be where we see a classic 30-40% Bitcoin bull market decline, followed by acceleration of the bull trend. Probably the dip of a lifetime.

Interested to see that count, as I'm not sure how we can be in anything other than some kind of 3 wave (iii of I or [ iii ] of [ I ] etc) if we believe we're in a bull that started just after it hit 3k in Dec '18.

I'm not convinced of that. The 2019 rally does not need to be considered impulsive, and I don't assume it is. Just because March 2020 was a higher low doesn't mean the preceding wave is an intermediate Wave (2). Complex corrections often complete with higher lows.

This is one of the things that has always bothered me about xxxx123abcxxxx's impulsive counts. I feel he often rushes Wave 4 counts, assuming a lower degree A or W wave is the entire Wave 4. Although there is no minimum time requirement for Wave 4, in my experience they strongly tends towards being longer than Wave 2, with ~2x by time being fairly common.

I believe it's more likely that the post-2017 bear market lasted 2+ years, and that our Historic IV just terminated in March 2020:



If it isn't clear, I am much, much, much more bullish than xxxx123abcxxxx. I believe we are still in Intermediate Wave (1) of Primary Wave [V].

I see only one major correction (jun 19 to march 20) and therefore no room for a big impulsive I wave nearing completion at 20-22k?

As you can probably tell now, I'm talking about a nested count, so a Wave i of lower degree. Wave i of Minor 3, to be specific.

Anyway, this is all very speculative. Just offering one alternative. I am very confident in the bull market scenario to new ATHs, but it can unfold in several different ways. The true count will only be clear in hindsight.

[exstasie]

Short term, it looks like a bullish triangle to me:



I'm anticipating an upside thrust towards $19K or so, before a local correction, perhaps to the $15K-$16K range. My preferred count still wants ~$20K+ before a more epic 30-40% shakeout.

Something like this:



If we see a weekly wick through that area on extremely high USD volume, combined with extremely greedy sentiment and long funding rates, I'll be inclined to think we're looking at a major top.

[dragonvslinux]

Short term, it looks like a bullish triangle to me:

This is one of those (few) moments where I disagree. Ignoring the candle wicks (that I usually do), then the bodies show more of a descending triangle imo, with a rough target to $17K (-3%) if broken. I realise this is merely down to perception of how you draw your triangles, and yours is completely valid, but mine definitely tells me otherwise.

Yesterday's doji candle (which to me screams indecision), also implies a short-term correction could in play:

I'm anticipating an upside thrust towards $19K or so, before a local correction, perhaps to the $15K-$16K range. My preferred count still wants ~$20K+ before a more epic 30-40% shakeout.

I'm also expecting a considerable shakeout, around 25-35%, but no confirmation on when this will arrive (whether from $18.4K, $20K or higher).

[josegines]

I'm also expecting a considerable shakeout, around 25-35%, but no confirmation on when this will arrive (whether from $18.4K, $20K or higher).

Exactly, the shakeout can occur well above 20k.

Or repeat the story of Feb-Mar/13 and after breaking ATH, keep going strong.

[exstasie]

Short term, it looks like a bullish triangle to me:

This is one of those (few) moments where I disagree. Ignoring the candle wicks (that I usually do), then the bodies show more of a descending triangle imo, with a rough target to $17K (-3%) if broken.

Looks like neither now, just a whipsaw.

I'm not overly concerned with this short term price action. There will be much better short term opportunities once this bull market goes truly exponential above the old ATH. And once we get our first deep shakeout, we can also look for much safer long term long entries too.

Everything here is pretty touch and go, tight stops.

[JayJuanGee]

Short term, it looks like a bullish triangle to me:

This is one of those (few) moments where I disagree. Ignoring the candle wicks (that I usually do), then the bodies show more of a descending triangle imo, with a rough target to $17K (-3%) if broken.

Looks like neither now, just a whipsaw.

I'm not overly concerned with this short term price action. There will be much better short term opportunities once this bull market goes truly exponential above the old ATH. And once we get our first deep shakeout, we can also look for much safer long term long entries too.

Everything here is pretty touch and go, tight stops.

I remember a lot of good long term long entry points in the past 3 years.. probably too many to list  --- that is part of the point of long term, the price in bitcoin has tended to end up playing out, especially if the HODL period is at least 4 years, and of course, if you can hold longer then you are going to tend to have even better BTC portfolio performance that has been stocking up and holding for 4 years or more and maybe even 10 years or more.

Of course, in the past 3 years, it is likely that cash has come in from income, so cash that is available now might not have been available in the past 3 years.  So, in that regard, there may be a bit more of a dilemma in knowing that there has hardly been any meaningful BTC price corrections in the past 2.5 months... so if you have had some extra cash coming in and building up, and it is building up because you had been waiting for a dip, then it could be strategic to shave some of that off and to buy without waiting for so much of a dip.