yup quite a few last couple days 

It no longer matters what the numbers are. For even if the value of bitcoin would drop to, for example, 1/10th of what it is, it is guaranteed that more than 1/10th of the existing big miners will remain. They will always be at an advantage compared to you, and the investment on their side has already happened so you'll push out the least efficient of the big miners but keep the most efficient of them. If anything, the other way is more likely to bring home miners in, but it will only be a temporary effect which will be offset by yet more big miner investors, and the stakes will be higher than ever. The only chance small miners have is for bitcoin to become small time again, so the value would have to drop to 1/100th or less of what it is, and stay there for an extended period.

Speaking purely from investment terms, it's a curious phenomenon that in the history of bitcoin, you could always convert dollars into more bitcoin than any mining machine you could buy with those dollars would generate over its lifetime, yet people inevitably choose to buy bitcoin miners because of the concept of buying a "money making machine". It is the most expensive and technically challenging way to convert dollars into bitcoin. By far the most money anyone ever made off ASIC hardware are those who purchased avalon generation 1. At bitcoin prices when the avalon was first announced, there is still a chance they'd be better off just having converted their dollars into bitcoin at that time. When the avalon actually arrived they were a steal at 60GH @ 1500$=80BTC but you could not order them any more since they were always preorders (how much is 80BTC worth now?). I think bitcoin was worth less when they made their Avalon preorders so they were much more than 80BTC. They may have been the one exception and ironically the first ASIC ever so they capitalised on the diff at the time.

It's funny because for years people would happily expand/extend their hardware for reasons that had nothing to do with making money, like having the best gaming machine, or the best Mprime or setiathome or folding@home results or whatever. Yet the attraction of bitcoin mining has been that the hardware expansion you've been doing has been in the quest for return on investment. It has clouded people's judgement and brought in a different population of miners compared to the population it grew from. Somehow people lost sight of the fact that bitcoin mining moved from the former group of enthusiasts to a massive money making venture and the former group unintentionally became part of the latter group unwittingly, and then started complaining that they would never make a return on investment (which strictly speaking is incorrect, they mean they would never pay off their hardware). People got caught in the bitcoin mining wave and unintentionally converted from hobbyists to real money investors, and that's the real crime here.

Interesting question. All the more interesting because no one has actually asked me before on the forums, even though I've discussed it at length on IRC and am very happy at any time for people to know what I think.

Mining died for the community/home miner a long time ago. It's just that the community miners haven't realised or accepted it yet. Community mining is only 15% of the hashrate now and shrinking. They're always hopeful and expectant but there really is no reason for them to be that way. Mining has gone to the data halls and the massive farms, mostly run by the manufacturers themselves who have the ability to create hardware on the cheap and offer it to the select few entities who can help their mining operations or provide funding or cheap hosting, instead of the consumer buyer market which is annoying, small time, noisy and boring. The only reason they continue to sell to that regular consumer market is there are enough people who have unrealistic expectations of making a profit somehow because they simply cannot believe that the numbers are stacked against them, such that the hardware manufacturers can charge a ridiculous premium to sell to that market to make it worth their while.

This should come as no surprise to anyone who's been watching bitcoin at large, but it will continue to surprise bitcoin miners, past, present and future. The reason miners don't see it is they're so blinded by the concept of a "money making machine" or the "goose that laid the golden egg" that they just can't see it.

8hrs+ on this block ..... our luck's gotta turn!

And the pool hoppers are running for the hills.  Down to 7.3 PH.  And i too have never seen the luck at Zero. Kind of a hollow feeling. 

JT

dmwardjr,
You really need to read the latest posts in the S4 thread as the PSU's are crap and are catching on fire. Would not put into my house at this point. Wouldn't be surprised if bitmain pulls them for now they know they have some serious problems that could potentially hurt someone.

If it is better than before, then you are making some headway. The falling hash-rate, like I always want to think, may just be a more difficult (no proof of this, just my thinking) block we are on so you are better off getting the picture / speed after at least 24hrs.


I am glad that you have taken over that mantle! Slush always seemed to do this to me, though of late, not so much ..... but now I know why, YOU!

In my experience (and use), when / if the pool-side speed is within or above the expected, I tend to ignore the x. I actually have an S3 (though overclocked to 262.5) that from time to time gives the a couple of x's on the first chain and on other occassions one x on the second chain. My solution ...? I added a line to the scheduled tasks to reboot after every 8 hrs (that was after observation of the pattern of the x's appearing!).


My point exactly above (with regard to the x disappearing after reboot). Bummer that you had to re-do the paste, but since the S3 units to some extent are unique, that seems the only way you can get a solution for any individual unit / batch. Still, if all fails for now (and I were in your position), my last throw of the dice would be the blue wire hack, aka both fans at full pelt!

PS. If you get the chance to re-do your rig and detach the board from the big heatsink, could you clean the area in the middle behind the heat sensor chip? As in remove all and any paste that may be there (that will mean (I hope) the sensor will detect higher temps and thus run the fans faster).
EDIT: - aka in lieu of the blue wire hack!

It may indeed be the powering but that PSU should be very confortable running 2 S3's at stock (even overclocked within reason!).
That you get an x when you clock to 225 is rather telling though. If this is one of the very early S3's, did you get a chance to re-apply the heat paste?
I mention this because with one of my upgraded S3's (from S1), I used heat-pads rather than paste on the chips, and intitally some of the pads moved slightly from the chips when I was adding the heatsink; that unit kept "throwing up" and x now and again, and after updating to 4.6.1 it became a "main-stay". I decided to check the rig, unscrewed the heatsink and discovered what I mentioned above, aka the slipped heat-pads. I put them in place and added a bit of paste to the back and the x is now history (well, its only been a few days, but it has not appeared again ..... yet).
So it may be the case that if you have an early S3 (which were notorious for too much paste or non at all!) AND the unit was hashing OK before applying 4.6.1 then it is worth investigating that, otherwise I'd say 4.6.1 does not suit that unit.

Are you powering your rig properly and is your HW rate "normal"? I'd not worry too much about the 5s rate, as it can shoot all the way up to (in my case) 650, the key one is the avg rate. 438 seems low, but it "should" pick up in time (mine usually take 45mins to an hour to reach their peak avg).
PS. Also, what is your ambient? Do your temps look OK?

Yes, you were right. 
From the S3 support thread, you use: /usr/bin/cgminer-api
Along with a lot of other stuff, this reports that I do have version 4.6.1.
Cheers.

The UI will still say version 3.12.0 though I cannot recall how to return the correct version after you have updated. I vaguely recall you have to check via the SSH command line by issuing a call to the API (check the S3 Support thread, it is mentioned there).

I hope you know the nuasances of updating antminer firmware! Here's a recap that gets a few people.
When you update the firmware, it will re-set the IP to the default one (can't recall, is it 192.168.1.99 ??) and set the network to static IP. So if you have any rigs on that IP, change them before you start.
Also since you'll be updating from a different IP, the UI will keep showing and reporting that it is still updating (in fact it may have already finished!). Thus after a minute or two after initiating the firmware update, open a new browser window and point it to 192.168.1.99
The first thing you should do after updating and loging in is to change the network back to DHCP client, then you'll be able to download cgminer, else you may (will) get a wget error.

Yes, the latest firmware (for the S3+) will work with an original S3. My S3's are batch 6, which was before the S3+.
Note that after updating the firmware, you will have to re-install 4.6.1 as the firmware still ships with the bitmain cgminer (I think version 3 ..?)

Updated OP with upgrade to cgminer 4.6.1 (and 4.6.0 with firmware update).

On checkout there are two delivery types, there is some information you can read there.

What batch of S3's do you have and do they have the latest firmware installed?
I did some tests after the original 4.6 was published (see link in my signature) and I experienced reduced hashrate and rolled back to the stock cgminer. However, when I upgraded my S1's with the upgrade kit, the upgraded (with the latest firmware) ones were hashing faster than my S3's, and the only difference was the firmware which I decided to upgrade and voilla, order was returned with the proper S3's hashing slightly higher (and consistently) than my upgrades. When 4.6.1 was published, I installed it on both factory S3's and my upgrades and BOTH hash better and faster than before.

So, to get the best / most out of cgminer 4.6.1 I'd ensure you have the latest firmware AND reboot via SSH after updgrading cgminer rather than restart.
EDIT: - Note that if you flush the latest firmware, you'll have to re-install cgminer 4.6.1 as the firmware has the stock version.