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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will BCH kill BTCSegWit while reinstating BTCSatoshi? on: October 12, 2017, 02:56:02 PM
Realpolitik (PoW is a plutocracy, big money decides, etc) aside, I have problems with this kind of attitude:
Quote
I find it very exciting. I would love to see so many people lose their BTC. It is a perfect way to teach people to stop disrespecting people who try to be helpful and who are knowledgeable.
Do you think most users are ideologues? Do you think punishing the ones who are ideologues is worth this? Maybe regular users don't have political power, but this level of not giving a shit about them on a personal level is baffling to me.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Another Bitcoin fork on 25 October on: October 12, 2017, 12:14:51 AM
from article 5 days ago:
Quote from: CoinTelegraph
The project was apparently co-founded by Jack Liao, CEO of Hong Kong-based Bitcoin mining company LightningASIC. LightningASIC also conveniently sells the hardware that this new market of miners will need.
(hardware in question)
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Segwit2x vs 1 MB on: October 11, 2017, 02:08:13 AM
By supporting segwit2x, you will not only lose money and look like an idiot afterwards, but you will be on the wrong side story, again. As we have seen with bitcoin xt, Cash, unlimited, and whatever else, hardforks never win, and the more hardfork attempts, the weaker they become and the stronger that the real bitcoin becomes, it's like a negative asymptotic curve, it will tend to 0, so you always win by holding real BTC and dumping forks (unless a fork has somehow 100% consensus)
I get you. To a large extent I agree, which is why I think "Segwit2x becomes another BCH" - i.e., a semi-irrelevant satellite - is one of the two likely outcomes. But let me put forward a counterpoint.

What makes Bitcoin valuable in the first place? I'd argue that the most base, most meaningful factor is that transactions are atomic and irreversible.

Okay, what makes them atomic and irreversible? It's that, in order to reverse a transaction, someone would have to have more computing power than the rest of the network put together.

Now, I don't like that miners have taken the law into their own hands on this topic. Miner incentives are not really aligned properly vis block size questions. That's part of why, when the Hong Kong Consensus called for 2MB blocks (called for them! planned to implement them!) it gated their rollout behind "broad acceptance" by the ecosystem.

But the problem is, if 90% of the hashpower really does move to Segwit2x, staying on the 1MB+ blockchain now puts my atomicity and irreversibility at risk, because there now exist many, many pools with the hashpower to unilaterally 51% attack my preferred ledger. I'm not talking about Jihan Wu here; an operation the size of Slush or BTCC, with sufficient ideological motivation, would have enough power on their own to render the 1MB+ blockchain literally unusable.

Now, if that happens, would some of the other NYA signatories switch back to mining 1MB+ to outvote that asshole? Hopefully! That's what's happened when ideological splits have happened on other coins. But now we have to worry about it, when we didn't before. Isn't that a reason for businesses to switch to Segwit2x regardless of their ideological take on how it was rolled out?

That's what makes this fork different from the others, and why I feel like there's risk here where there wasn't in past splits.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Segwit2x vs 1 MB on: October 09, 2017, 10:16:05 PM
I'm hoping for this fork to be short-lived, TBH.

The way I see it, either Segwit2x doesn't attract the hashpower we think, lands with a whimper, and becomes another BitcoinCash... or the 1MB(+witness) chain gets abandoned by miners, services follow, and eventually the bitcoin.org client adopts the size bump out of practical necessity.

So I'll wait to see which it is. No rush. If I'm wrong, then both sides of the fork will have value, which means I can reassess at that point.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: btcgpu? dafuk is that? on: August 31, 2017, 08:47:48 PM
  • claims to be a BTC fork but has a 20000 BTC premine
  • seems to fundamentally misunderstand how "longest chain" logic actually works
  • supposed to fork at the same time as BitcoinABC but there's still no client 1 month later
  • nor any details on the proof of work function other than "it's GPU only"
  • in fact, none of the links work at all
tl;dr looks like someone was trying to get rich by forking, but got bored and left when it became clear that nobody cared
6  Economy / Speculation / The Mood on: August 22, 2017, 10:14:58 PM


(Who am I talking about? Bulls? Bears? BitcoinCasheers? That's for you to decide Wink)
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: WANT TO ASK IF IBITCOIN BEEN DEVALUED TO ZERO ? on: August 18, 2017, 06:24:28 AM
Here's the thing about "zero".



Even Zimbabwe banknotes are worth a little money.

Not as currency, of course; Zimbabwe itself switched to USD years ago.

But people buy them on eBay regardless. Why? Well, because it's an interesting object, a funny gag gift, or a conversation starter.

So let's say, for some reason, that one day people stopped using bitcoins. Stopped accepting bitcoins as payment. Let's say the big mining pools all close up shop because it's impossible for an unused currency to pay their electric bills.

Then, even in that world, I imagine the system would probably still live on in the same capacity that Zimbabwe Dollars have survived. Folks buying mining ASICs on Craigslist for a pittance and running them out of nostalgia, or because it's funny, or just because it's something to do.

So we return to pre-2011 prices - sub-$1 prices - from back when BTC was just a funny crypto-nerd novelty. It won't be worth anything as an investment vehicle.

But that's not zero.
8  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Post your SegWit questions here - open discussion - big week for Bitcoin! on: August 15, 2017, 03:24:21 AM
I am not a technical person. So I am still confused about SegWit. I have still no clue what actually it is. The only thing I know that it helped the BTC value rise. Can anyone describe easily what SegWit  actually is?
The very short version of the story is this:
  • When people send their coins to someone else, that's a "transaction".
  • They "sign" the transaction to prove to the network that they have the right to spend the coins.
  • Before SegWit, transactions and signatures were sent out as part of the same document.
  • After SegWit, they're sent out separately - like signing the back of a piece of paper instead of the front.

Why does this matter? It turns out it's useful for letting the Bitcoin network process more transactions per second. Right now there's a limit on how many transactions can be processed per second, because everyone has to double-check whether the transactions are 100% correct, and we want to make sure they can keep up.

It turns out, moving the signature out of the transaction itself helps that in two ways:

1) Partial Verification
Part of what makes double-checking transactions a slow process is that they have to be sent to you before you can start to check them. Moving the signatures means that Alice can check the transactions, and then start forwarding them on to Bob right away, even before she's had a chance to check the signatures (she can tell Bob later should the signatures turn out to be bogus). This means less latency in passing along transactions - they travel faster - and so a block can include about half again as many transactions as used to fit inside.

2) "Fixing Malleability"
The way Bitcoin has worked up to now, since the signature is part of the transaction, changing the signature changes the transaction's identity. Even though all the same coins are being spent in the same way, it's a "different" transaction than before. And it turns out anyone can "smudge" a signature slightly, such that it's still valid, but it's "changed" enough to trigger this situation.

This made it harder to write more complicated chains of transactions - where the transactions depend on each other.

One example of these "complicated transactions" is a "payment channel". The idea here is that if Alice and Bob send coins back and forth a lot, they can compress all of their sending back and forth into two transactions - one to "open" the channel, and one to "close" it and settle up. This saves everyone the hassle of double-checking all of Alice and Bob's payments individually; they can just check that the settling-up at the end was valid. (If you've heard the phrase "lightning network", it's basically just a much more advanced version of this same idea.)

With signatures stored inside their transactions, this was really hard to set up correctly, because if the transaction that "opens" the channel gets its signature smudged, the "settling-up" can't find that transaction anymore, so the coins will be left in limbo.

But with SegWit, the signatures aren't inside the transactions. So even if the signatures get smudged, the "settling-up" transaction can still find the "open" transaction, and the technique works.


Together, in theory, (1) and (2) can significantly increase the amount of Bitcoin transactions that can be sent per second. And that means transaction fees go down, and Bitcoin gets cheaper to use. And at the same time, (2) increases the number of interesting things you can do with your bitcoins.

Since both of those make Bitcoin more valuable, the price goes up. ^_^
9  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / What percentage of the gossip network is still on 0.13.0 or equivalent? on: August 15, 2017, 02:26:44 AM
Do we know how many of the full nodes have upgraded to a version that understands SegWit style scripts?

I did some websearching but couldn't find many details. Not even sure if this kind of info about a distributed system can be feasibly collected.
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Old hands, what is your current engagement level? on: August 13, 2017, 05:09:07 PM
Joined the community in early 2012, have been sort of disengaged since early 2015. More watching-from-a-distance than anything. But now that a malleability fix (SegWit) is finally landing I've started to pay more attention again.

My BTC are still in a "long-term storage" mode. I could theoretically earn more profits by putting them on an exchange, but I don't want the counterparty risk; when shapeshift.io supports Tether, or when a proper distributed market appears (thus allowing BTC/USD market making without having to leave my coins in someone's webwallet), then maybe I'll get into it again. But even then, a big chunk of that stash is destined to sit quiet until I can spend them at the grocery store's NFC terminal. "Current money or bust", right?

That said, the BitcoinCash split has been a wonderful opportunity for me, since now I have what amounts to a 10% dividend to use for diversification. I'm planning to buy into Ethereum, mostly. My comment above about a "malleability fix" should clue you in that I'm extremely bullish on the potential of blockchain-enforced business logic, and there are a couple killer apps in that space that Ethereum contracts can support but Bitcoin scripts can't. That said, I've got no interest in direct ICO investment; why try to pick the best individual product, when you can invest in the platform they all use? ^_^
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am a pro-Core, pro-Segwit small blocker who has a hard decision about BCC on: August 09, 2017, 05:42:50 PM
Usually, if someone likes a coin, that person will think it has a bright future.

That said, if you're worried that you might be getting off the rocket by selling your BCC, I'd suggest hedging! You can sell most of it, take profit immediately, but still hold the rest Just In Case it sees major appreciation after all.
12  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Could PoW mining be more decentralized by giving rewards for other tasks? on: August 01, 2017, 04:34:19 PM
Another proposal was to embrace the fact that people seem to be storing data "on-chain", and make the financial incentive system revolve around that. A certain coin balance would be allowed to have up to a certain UTXO size, but these balances would gradually drain to pay the people storing the UTXO set (who would "mine"/get paid by proving to the network that they have the blockchain saved and publicly available to download).

These proposals, I'll reiterate, are most useful when discussing possible altcoins. There is a lot of momentum behind Bitcoin as a pure SHA256 proof-of-work thing; I think changing the proof of work would be too big a difference for people to keep thinking of the new consensus mechanism as still being Bitcoin.
13  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Post your SegWit questions here - open discussion - big week for Bitcoin! on: July 25, 2017, 02:40:49 AM
I'm trying to get a handle on the current state of various SegWit activation mechanisms. Please forgive me if these are stupid questions; I've been tuned out for a while and it's hard to sift through all the partisan jargon to find out what's going on.

  • At this point, due to BIP141 activation windows, SegWit can't become active until about August 8th, right?
  • At this point, assuming BIP91 miners don't change their minds and they continue to ignore non-BIP141 blocks, BIP148 is a no-op, right?
14  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will you sell your BitcoinABC or hold on to it? on: July 22, 2017, 11:08:21 PM
it's the pet of jihan wu. he probably controls over 50% of the hash rate.

i don't think he's dim enough to attack the original chain or go all in with this new one, but i believe he could if he wanted to.

difficulty is gonna be a bunch lower so it might attract a bunch of older miner mining machines.
Ahhhh. Yeah, if some of Antpool's hashpower hops on, then the chances of it existing for long enough to unload some coin are a lot better than I was thinking.

Still, he'd have to commit pretty significantly to the project. Otherwise, if his name is on it, the project is vulnerable to any other big miner that dislikes him enough (and after the contentious year we've had, I imagine there's a few).
15  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will you sell your BitcoinABC or hold on to it? on: July 22, 2017, 10:54:00 PM
IMO, Bitcoin's main strength (compared to Dash, Ethereum, etc) is that it's chain with the biggest hashrate, and thus, the hardest to double-spend against.

This is an especially real risk when we start talking about ideological hardforks. When Ethereum Classic happened, one ideological ETH-loyal miner made public threats to use his hashpower to double-spend on ETC and render it useless; it was only an influx of ETC hashpower that stopped him.

So for BCC, BitcoinABC, etc to be useful, they need to win over a significant % of BTC's current hashpower.

Do you consider that likely, when the /NYA/ presents a less risky road to increased blocksize?

Edit: I just realized I didn't answer the original question.

Long story made short, I don't think I'll have the chance to sell my BitcoinABC, because I don't think there will be a market for it.

If there is a market, I'll probably sell most of it. Not all - might as well hedge a little. But most.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price starting to rise on: July 20, 2017, 05:26:55 PM
I suspect this is the proverbial "bull trap".



But I'd love to be proven wrong.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: When will BTC be at $5,000? on: May 26, 2017, 01:10:53 PM
My guess is that either BTC hits $5000/coin before the end of June, or it doesn't happen until after 2020.

We're in turbobull fiesta territory right now, but when the party ends, it's usually with a splitting hangover that prevents any further partying for quite a while. The only question is whether the night is still young.
Where did you get your crystal ball? Can you teach us how to make such insightful predictions?

Really now, please back up your conclusion with a concrete analysis not with gut feel and your crystal ball.
I mean, it's not a crystal ball. Just extrapolation from how BTC has behaved before in these overheated periods.

The most recent example would be Q4 of 2013, we ran up the price all the way from $75/coin to $1000/coin in the span of a few months. Then the price crashed, slowly dwindled to ~$240, and it took three years to get back where we'd been.

Or you could go back further, and look at Q2 of 2011, when we ran up the price all the way from 50/coin to $32/coin, and then the price crashed, slowly dwindled to to $2, and it took 'til early 2013 to get back on track.

My guess - and yes, I'll admit it's a guess, because anything in this thread is gonna be - my guess is that the current turbobull orgy will fit the same pattern. (Of course, there's a chance that we get something like Q1 of 2013 instead - where the bull market took a much shorter 3-6 month break. If that happens, I'll consider it a pleasant surprise Smiley )
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: When will BTC be at $5,000? on: May 25, 2017, 03:05:44 PM
My guess is that either BTC hits $5000/coin before the end of June, or it doesn't happen until after 2020.

We're in turbobull fiesta territory right now, but when the party ends, it's usually with a splitting hangover that prevents any further partying for quite a while. The only question is whether the night is still young.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC 2500$ / $3000 ? on: May 25, 2017, 02:52:10 PM
But does anybody have a solid prediction when the value will peak? Any additional statistics that could give a good guess when it will do so before it drops?
Nobody has a solid prediction. That kind of technique would be some serious black magic.

But as a warning sign? Watch for local newspapers (outside big cities) running an article on Bitcoin that talks more about the price movements than the technology.

Bubbles have occasional spike drops on the way up. Why do they recover from those drops? Because there's people who were waiting for that opportunity to buy in.

By the time word of the rally spreads to the sort of people who'd put it in a suburban/rural community's local newspaper, the pool of such "patient investors" has grown thin. Smiley

The last big bull run (in late 2013, when the ATH broke $1k/BTC), I encountered such an article less than a week before the crash.
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: A question to the bitcoin "hackers". on: July 13, 2015, 05:44:34 PM
As a reminder: as of the current state of the art, 40 years is nowhere near the right time horizon for cracking a wallet that was generated in a secure way. Even Tianhe-2, the most powerful supercomputer in the world, would take hundreds of thousands of years.

I mean, it's still an interesting hypothetical - plays into a lot of classic economic allocation questions - but I want to make sure you realize that it's not a realistic one, for the moment.
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