The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement off this sharp move from $5.26 to the first bottom of $4.84 was around $5. So the likely retrace to 5 after 4.84 was probably a wave 4 meaning that we are currently in a terminal 5 which will likely bottom us out in the 4.6 - 4.75 range before we head up in a meaningful correction.
Could have done with that in an email... I get an alert on my phone from emails; but I don't sit and monitor this forum constantly. I am now completely confused. How does the above fit in with your most recent email? I have no idea where I should be now and what I should be looking out for. the previous email still holds since that terminal 5th wave that I talked about above concludes with a big rally afterwards which over time should still get us close to the target area (I would subtract .10 though from the number I gave though) that I talked about in the email. Remember, I want you guys to sell on strength and not in weakness during a panic selling binge which we continued yesterday after the initial sell-off. But, yes I will send my thoughts in email form for now on. I am sorry about that. Subtract .10 from which number? The target given in the premium mail? The number was from the basic email I sent out on March 20 and was chosen since it corresponded to a back-test of the major support trend-line that was lost on that day. |
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today's email has been sent  -March 21 update (includes chart: 111) No chart attached :/ I just sent out another. Thanks |
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today's email has been sent -March 21 update (includes chart: 111) |
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email for today has been sent -March 20 update (includes chart: 110) |
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The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement off this sharp move from $5.26 to the first bottom of $4.84 was around $5. So the likely retrace to 5 after 4.84 was probably a wave 4 meaning that we are currently in a terminal 5 which will likely bottom us out in the 4.6 - 4.75 range before we head up in a meaningful correction.
Could have done with that in an email... I get an alert on my phone from emails; but I don't sit and monitor this forum constantly. I am now completely confused. How does the above fit in with your most recent email? I have no idea where I should be now and what I should be looking out for. the previous email still holds since that terminal 5th wave that I talked about above concludes with a big rally afterwards which over time should still get us close to the target area (I would subtract .10 though from the number I gave though) that I talked about in the email. Remember, I want you guys to sell on strength and not in weakness during a panic selling binge which we continued yesterday after the initial sell-off. But, yes I will send my thoughts in email form for now on. I am sorry about that. |
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IMHO, the question of whether or not we are in a corrective 2nd wave or a 4th wave right now boils down to what exactly was going through the mind of whoever sold at around 5.16. If it was a genuine sell then we are likely in a 4th. On the other hand, if that individual or group of individuals shorted to create a panic then we might be in a 2nd and the ensuing short squeeze could take us all the way back up to 5.1 or higher.
And, the more I think about it, the more I am inclined to believe that it was a short since we literally cut through every major support like butter which should not have happened unless someone, with money, really wanted to break the charts and force the market in a direction it did not want to go originally.
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'premium only' email sent
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What are the chances of it finishing the age old correction @ 4ish?
I heard it can do it this side of the channel...which would be some sort of official reversal marker or something.
your thinking is correct however we need to go a tad lower than 4 hmm...that means it will take a few weeks for this to play out...bleh more waiting around! Unless...you can break the channel a little and it still count as a rebound..? oo or it could do it twice! Yes, this will happen over a period of several weeks. It will not happen tonight  |
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MACD crossed, also, daily 10-21 EMAs are about to get crossed. I guess we could see more downside soon.
most of the time, a short term bottom occurs as a major bearish cross happens. However, that bottom is just that...short term. Remember, indicators are always lagging by nature. |
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What are the chances of it finishing the age old correction @ 4ish? I heard it can do it this side of the channel...which would be some sort of official reversal marker or something.  your thinking is correct however we need to go a tad lower than 4 |
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you are forgetting about the many waves off the 5.45 top
Not a competitor to you )) just watching a game, having a bud wassup Btw, daily MACD is about to intersect downside. I'm keeping an eye on it. Enjoy those beers for me |
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 Uploaded with ImageShack.usSorry guys, drunked a bit, could make mistakes :::beer::: you are forgetting about the many waves off the 5.45 top |
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The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement off this sharp move from $5.26 to the first bottom of $4.84 was around $5. So the likely retrace to 5 after 4.84 was probably a wave 4 meaning that we are currently in a terminal 5 which will likely bottom us out in the 4.6 - 4.75 range before we head up in a meaningful correction.
Where do you see the price in 1 hour? let's just say that going vertical in one direction is not going to be sustainable for very long. |
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The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement off this sharp move from $5.26 to the first bottom of $4.84 was around $5. So the likely retrace to 5 after 4.84 was probably a wave 4 meaning that we are currently in a terminal 5 which will likely bottom us out in the 4.6 - 4.75 range before we head up in a meaningful correction.
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I'll also check this out and get back to you guys. I have to go at the moment though  . If you email me questions, I'll get back to you later on tonight |
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correction started at about 5.26 the lowest point was 4.84, 4,99 is 38,2% on this scale
i am wrong on this ??
You would actually measure the Fib move from the top which was 5.45 so 38% of that would be 5.073. If we get there and then breach 3.84 then we know that we are dealing with a wave 4 right now. God, I wish I had a website right now with a chat section so that I could actually talk to you guys without all the public watching. Until you get a website set up... http://www.chatzy.com/I'll probably set something up similar to this in about a week. I have other obligations that I have to take care of for the better part of this week though, so if I were to set it up now, my time on it would be 'very' limited. |
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Or you can state a few things in public that are so profound and accurate it makes me want to send you
some BTC so I can hear more.
I'll always do this at times, but a website would help me communicate during dense situations like this in a lot of detail |
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correction started at about 5.26 the lowest point was 4.84, 4,99 is 38,2% on this scale
i am wrong on this ??
You would actually measure the Fib move from the top which was 5.45 so 38% of that would be 5.073. If we get there and then breach 4.84 then we know that we are dealing with a wave 4 right now. God, I wish I had a website right now with a chat section so that I could actually talk to you guys without all the public watching. EDIT: I meant 4.84 and not 3.84 |
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I thought we had a lot of good reasons to hold long... big volume up through $5, triangle continuation pattern, parallel channel support, SMA support, positive daily MACD...
I need to learn to watch for bear signals... I only see bull signals.
that is the thing...there were so many more bullish signals than bearish ones. Remember, I was never really super bullish about this whole move past 5 longer term. I was always keeping an eye on the bearish evidence. Furthermore, what happened proves why technical analysis will never be an exact science and why you should 'never' bet the farm on any pattern or indicator no mater how likely the outcome is. This will always be a game of probabilities, and so, sometimes the low probability outcomes win. |
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Don't worry about it, I am in the same boat as a lot of you guys; over the years though, I have learned to keep a level head when unexpected things occur.
On that subject then; what would your experience say about loss-cutting? When you're the wrong side of a trend, and you know you are, but would still like to minimise losses -- what's the best way to pick an "exit number" if you like? I would never hold a loss that is larger than 10 - 15% unless there is a very good reason. Most of time if you hold a losing position past that point, you are too invested in making up that loss and emotions start taking over. And rule #1 of investing is to not let emotions take over your decision making. hope that helps, |
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